Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum ETF holdings continue to flow out, with prices in a range - bound oscillation; palladium prices rise and then fall, and attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [1] - Platinum trend strength is 0, and palladium trend strength is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum prices**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 599.80, up 4.31%; the price of gold - exchange platinum was 592.82, up 2.26%; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2277.80, down 0.21%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2269.19, down 0.08% [1] - **Palladium prices**: The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 499.05, up 8.32%; the price of RMB spot palladium was 427.00, down 0.47%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1874.00, up 2.21%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1818.27, up 1.13% [1] - **Trading volume and positions**: For Guangdong platinum, the trading volume was 55,015 kg, an increase of 1,290 kg compared with the previous day, and the position was 39,590 kg, a decrease of 579 kg; for NYMEX platinum, the trading volume was 36,836 kg, a decrease of 10,684 kg, and the position was 104,626 kg, a decrease of 930 kg; for Guangdong palladium, the trading volume was 40,413 kg, an increase of 4,689 kg, and the position was 15,024 kg, a decrease of 142 kg; for NYMEX palladium, the trading volume was 24,824 kg, an increase of 8,662 kg, and the position was 56,773 kg, an increase of 308 kg [1] - **ETF holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,284,543, a decrease of 14,775; palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,179,645, an increase of 3,700 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,755, a decrease of 260; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 211,306, with no change [1] - **Price spreads**: For platinum, the PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 6.98, a decrease of 11.71 compared with the previous day; the Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.40, an increase of 6.90; the cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.38, an increase of 0.29; the spread between the Guangdong platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 24.33, an increase of 29.59. For palladium, the RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was - 72.05, a decrease of 40.35; the Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was - 0.40, an increase of 7.40; the cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 6.18, an increase of 0.45; the spread between the Guangdong palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 38, an increase of 34.22 [1] - **Exchange rates**: The US dollar index was 99.14, up 0.28%; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.98, up 0.02%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 6.98, up 0.02%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.90, down 0.20% [1] Macro and Industry News - Thailand's southern Narathiwat province has imposed a curfew [4] - The Israeli army is reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip [4] - British officials do not rule out the possibility of deploying troops in Greenland [4] - The Iranian president said the government recognizes peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups [4] - Danish parliamentary leaders said it would be "stupid" if there was a war over Greenland [4] - US media reported that Trump was briefed on the plan to strike Iran but has not made a final decision, and the government is considering multiple options to interfere in Iran [4] - In 2025, the inter - provincial trading electricity volume in the operating area of the State Grid of China reached a record high [4] - Ukraine has been frequently attacked by air raids, and the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine has reminded Chinese citizens in Ukraine to pay attention to safety [4] - China has applied for 200,000 new satellites, and experts interpret that the application has risen to the national strategic level [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for short fibers is "shockingly bullish" [1] - The investment rating for bottle chips is "shockingly bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The short - fiber futures are generally volatile, with stable spot factory quotes and a 72% average sales - to - production ratio as of 3:00 pm [1][2] - The upstream raw material futures of bottle chips are mainly volatile, and the quotes of polyester bottle chip factories are mostly stable with some local price cuts. The market trading atmosphere is average [2] Group 3: Summary by Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Short Fibers**: The price of short - fiber 2602 increased by 14 to 6472, short - fiber 2603 increased by 14 to 6504, and short - fiber 2604 decreased by 34. The PF03 - 04 spread increased by 48. The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased by 22874 to 135252, while the主力 trading volume decreased by 14836 to 99224. The short - fiber East China spot price decreased by 5 to 6,520 [1] - **Bottle Chips**: The price of bottle chip 2602 increased by 32, bottle chip 2603 increased by 20, and bottle chip 2604 increased by 18. The PR01 - 02 spread increased by 12, and the PR02 - 03 spread increased by 2. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1025 to 43240, and the主力 trading volume increased by 3821 to 56496. The bottle - chip East China spot price remained unchanged at 6030, and the South China spot price decreased by 10 to 6080 [1] Spot News - **Short Fibers**: Short - fiber futures fluctuated, and spot factory quotes were mainly stable. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated [1][2] - **Bottle Chips**: Upstream raw material futures fluctuated. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, with some local price cuts of 10 - 20 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was average, and orders from January to March were mostly traded at 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of short fibers is 0, and that of bottle chips is 0, referring only to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on January 12, 2026, covering multiple black - series commodities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - For iron ore, the valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing up [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][7] - For ferrosilicon, market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price fluctuates widely; for silicomanganese, overseas miners' quotes have increased, and the futures price also fluctuates widely [2][11] - For coke and coking coal, events are fermenting, and prices are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15] - For logs, prices fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the futures contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18%. Imported ore prices generally increased slightly, and the difference between some varieties changed. The trend strength is 0 [4] - **News**: In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.820,000 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.000,000 tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.080,000 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.830,000 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.480,000 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.430,000 tons. The trend strength of both is 0 [8][9] - **News**: In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased; in mid - December 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased; the government implemented export license management for some steel products; from January to October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The trend strength of both is 0 [11] - **News**: On January 9, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions changed; overseas miners raised their quotes for February 2026; as of January 9, the total manganese ore inventory decreased [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the coking coal JM2605 contract was 1195.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the closing price of the coke J2605 contract was 1748 yuan/ton, down 1.0%. The trend strength of both is 0 [15] - **News**: On January 9, the metallurgical coal index changed; the daily output of coking coal mines increased, with new production resumptions and a small number of new shutdowns [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The prices of most log spot products remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] - **News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of enterprises at the end of 2025 [22]

2026 年 01 月 06 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260106 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260106 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6400 | 6476 | -76 | PF01-02 | -62 | -38 | -24 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6462 | 6514 | -52 | PF02-03 | 6 | -42 | 48 | | | 短纤2603 | 6456 | 6556 | -100 | PF主力基差 | રેં રે | 31 | 22 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 173239 | 242013 | -68774 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.515 | 6. 545 | -30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 153152 | 166489 | -13337 | 短纤产销率 | 53% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm of upstream factories [1]. - For polysilicon, it will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, 135 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 215 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 366,201 lots, and the open interest was 216,220 lots [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price was 57,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,390 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 1,335 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium/discount varied when对标 different grades. For example, when对标ing East China Si5530, it was + 335 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: When对标ing N - type re - investment material, the spot premium/discount was - 5,890 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material was 52,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,411.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) it was - 4,719 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 19.6 million tons, and the industry inventory was 75.1 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 30.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan it was 250 yuan/ton [2]. - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. were also provided [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On December 19, the completion ceremony of the deep - treatment project of the ore - heating furnace flue gas of Sichuan Fuxing New Materials Co., Ltd. was held, aiming at green transformation and high - quality regional development [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The sentiment for platinum bulls remains strong, and palladium is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Increase**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 705.30 with a 2.67% increase; gold exchange platinum at 662.15 with an 11.99% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2513.90 with a 10.60% increase; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2459.50 with a 9.17% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 515.65 with a - 2.53% change; RMB spot palladium at 429.00 with a 3.13% increase; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 2060.50 with a 13.15% increase; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1925.00 with an 11.69% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 109,875 kg, a decrease of 117,791 kg from the previous day, and the position was 52,265 kg, an increase of 3,533 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 83,211 kg, an increase of 236 kg, and the position was 103,710 kg, an increase of 75,569 kg. Guangdong palladium trading volume was 162,756 kg, an increase of 62,463 kg, and the position was 30,775 kg, an increase of 6,913 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 46,864 kg, a decrease of 1,260 kg, and the position was 68,275 kg, an increase of 283 kg [1] - **ETF Position**: ETE platinum ETF position (previous day) was 3,275,432 ounces, an increase of 294 ounces. Palladium ETF position (previous day) was 1,143,186 ounces, an increase of 1,475 ounces [1] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg (no change). NYMEX platinum inventory (previous day) was 646,896 ounces, an increase of 1,429 ounces. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg (no change). NYMEX palladium inventory (previous day) was 198,040 ounces, an increase of 2,206 ounces [1] - **Price Spread**: PT9995 vs PT2606 price spread was - 43.15, an increase of 52.55 from the previous day. Guangdong platinum 2606 contract vs 2610 contract price spread was - 2.55, an increase of 0.85. The cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 8.64, an increase of 0.22. The price spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 108.10, an increase of 25.03. The price spread between RMB spot palladium and PD2606 was - 86.65, an increase of 26.40. Guangdong palladium 2606 contract vs 2610 contract price spread was - 6.35, a decrease of 0.40. The cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.39, a decrease of 0.16. The price spread between RMB spot palladium and London palladium was - 2, a decrease of 31.89 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.03 with a 0.13% increase; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.01 with a - 0.01% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 7.00 with a 0.08% increase; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.93 with a 0.06% increase [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - As of December 27, the scale of Chinese ETFs reached 6.03 trillion yuan, breaking through the 6 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time in history [3] - From December 27 to 28, the National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing [3] - Cambodia said it had reached a consensus with Thailand on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border Commission meeting [3] 3. Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity is 1, and palladium trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 4. Other News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian army had attacked energy facilities used by the Ukrainian defense department, missile engine component production workshops, and Ukrainian attack drone assembly bases, and also attacked 148 temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian armed forces [4] - On December 28, Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in Florida, USA, to hold talks with Trump [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][6] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide-range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][12] - Coke and coking coal are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate at low levels [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 778.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.13%. The open interest was 567,104 lots, up 13,387 lots. Spot prices were stable. The basis and spreads showed some minor changes [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The HC2605 contract closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. Spot prices had some minor changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed various changes. Spot prices and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, and news about furnace start-ups and shutdowns in some factories [13][14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of JM2605 and J2605 contracts decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs were mostly stable, with some minor changes [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 1-year LPR was 3%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged from last month [23] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: p-Xylene, PTA, rubber, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][10][79] - **Neutral Trends**: MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, short fiber, bottle chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene [2][15][25] - **Negative Trends**: None 2. Core Views - **PX**: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite polyester factory plans to cut production, the tight supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Supply tightens, cost support is strong, and the unilateral trend is upward. The PX price continues to rise, squeezing downstream profits [8]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The current valuation is low, but the high operating rate and high port inventory restrict price increases [9]. - **Rubber**: The market is oscillating strongly. Although the price of Thai glue has declined, the cup rubber price is relatively firm, and the raw material price in Yunnan is stable [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a weak current situation but has strong future expectations, entering an oscillatory pattern. The previous rise was due to improved butadiene fundamentals and strong far - month expectations, but the current fundamentals have weakened marginally [15]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable. The overall supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in refinery operating rates and inventory rates [17][26]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot trading has declined. The raw material price is oscillating, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply side has some new production and maintenance, and the medium - term supply - demand pressure is still large [27][28]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is compressed again, and the market is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [30][31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. The pulp price has increased weekly, but the intraday price is stable. The futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The downstream demand is average, and the float glass factory is mainly focused on shipping at a price - for - volume strategy [47]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the spot price shows a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Urea**: The medium - term price center will move up. Although the production has gradually recovered, the downstream demand lacks continuous upward momentum [55][57]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026, but there are also risks of downstream inventory back - pressure [58][61]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [63]. - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [66]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen slightly, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract is oscillating, and the far - month contract should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and freight rates are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and market demand [81][93]. - **Short Fiber**: It is strong in the short term, and the processing fee is compressed. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is relatively stable, and the cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The current inventory is high, but it is expected to improve in 2026, and the price may show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [59][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PTA device restarts and load reductions coexist, MEG operating rate increases slightly, and polyester load is at a high level [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA are 1, MEG is 0 [8]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is long - biased, and attention should be paid to multi - PX and short - downstream positions; PTA is long - biased, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and multi - PTA and short - downstream positions; MEG is bearish in the medium term [8][9]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price of Thai glue has declined, and the cup rubber price has increased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The refinery operating rate and inventory rate have decreased slightly [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25]. - **Market Information**: The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 will decrease, the factory inventory will decrease, and the social inventory will increase [26]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has increased, and the open interest has increased. The basis is weak, and the spot price has increased slightly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material price is oscillating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large in the medium term [28]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is under pressure, and the spot price has increased slightly [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [32]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [31]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 2233, the spot price is 710, and the basis is - 14. The factory inventory has decreased [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [36]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has increased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [40]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price has decreased slightly [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [47]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass price has decreased in some areas, and the downstream demand is average [47]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is stable, and the spot price has shown a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [53]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has increased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price is stable [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [57]. - **Industry News**: The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market price center has moved up [56][57]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, and the spot price has some changes. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026 [58][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [58]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has increased, and the spot price is stable [63]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general [63]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [70]. - **Market Information**: The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 4469, the spot price is 4480, and the basis is 11. The social inventory has increased [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [77]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [79]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the freight rate index has increased. The shipping capacity has changed, and the geopolitical situation affects the market [81][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [98]. - **Macro News**: There are new developments in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation and shipping operations in the Red Sea [90][91]. Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The short - fiber sales are light, and the bottle - chip market trading atmosphere has declined slightly [99][100]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [100]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [103]. - **Industry News**: The market price in Shandong and Guangdong is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general [104][106]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased [107][108]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [108]. - **News**: The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory has increased, and the Shandong pure benzene price has increased slightly [108].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the macro - risk appetite for iron ore is boosted again, and it will be in a high - level oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 780.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton or 0.32%. The position of I2605 was 534,905 hands, with an increase of 16,750 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of 65% Carajás fines (Carajas) was 874.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton; 61.5% PB fines was 795.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 61% Jimbobara fines was 748.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; 56.5% Super Special fines was 677.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of 66% Langna ore and 65% Laiwu ore remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 3.6 yuan/ton to 108.0 yuan/ton; the basis against Jimbobara fines decreased by 1.4 yuan/ton to 49.6 yuan/ton. The spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton to 18.0 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 79.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Jimbobara fines remained unchanged at 47.0 yuan/ton; the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 118.0 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7,859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6,043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1]

2025 年 12 月 11 日 短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251211 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251211 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 短纤趋势强度：-1；瓶片趋势强度：-1(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，隆众资讯，CCF，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 短纤：今日短纤期货弱势下跌，现货方面大多工厂报价下调 50~150 元/吨，半光 1.4D 主流报价在 6400~6500 区间。贸易商及期现商进一步走低，成交放量，半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心多在 6100~6400 区间。 今日直纺涤短工厂销售一般，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 55%，部分工厂产销：60%、80%、70%、80%、 30%、30%、20%、50%、50%，50%。 瓶片：上游原料期货弱势下跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价局部下调 30-100 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交尚 可。1 ...