Market Overview - Major indices are reaching record highs following the recent CPI data, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The CPI data revealed no significant tariff transfer effects on inflation, with overall year-over-year CPI at 3%, which is still above the target [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The expectation is set for a rate cut in October, with another cut anticipated in December, regardless of potential government shutdowns [3] - The upcoming November period is expected to yield average returns, although some volatility may arise from job data releases [3] Sector Performance - The sentiment remains positive, particularly in the technology sector, with ongoing investments in innovation [5] - There is a strategic balance between tech investments and cyclicals, such as finance and utilities, to capitalize on anticipated policy easing [6] AI Adoption and Earnings - Concerns exist regarding the pace of AI adoption, currently estimated at only 5-10%, which may delay productivity and revenue gains [6][7] - Earnings reports have been positive, primarily from non-tech sectors, with significant infrastructure tech spending influencing results [8] Private Credit Concerns - Recent issues in private credit have been linked to isolated fraud cases rather than broader economic conditions, suggesting a well-structured industry [9][11] - The potential for increased instances of fraud may reflect the current economic cycle, but a recession is not anticipated, leading to a more optimistic outlook [14]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a suspension of most official economic data releases, with the only significant hard data expected from the Federal Reserve being the September CPI, which will be released on October 24 [1] - The CPI data is anticipated to be a key anchor for market and policy expectations, with a monthly increase rate close to 0.2% potentially reinforcing "soft landing" expectations and boosting Bitcoin performance [1] - Gold has experienced a significant pullback due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking from recent highs, while Bitcoin briefly rose to approximately $114,000 before retreating to the $108,000 range, indicating high market volatility ahead of the CPI release [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that falling oil prices may drive U.S. benchmark Treasury yields down to their lowest levels in over a year, potentially reaching 3.75% if the Federal Reserve initiates rate cuts next week [1][3] - Ed Yardeni highlights a long-term correlation between oil prices and inflation, suggesting that a decline in oil prices will help lower overall consumer inflation rates and enhance consumer purchasing power [1] - The report from Yardeni Research indicates that the current oversupply of crude oil, combined with concerns over a global economic slowdown, has pushed WTI crude prices to their lowest point since the post-COVID recovery in the energy market [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date, crude oil futures have dropped from a high of $80 per barrel in January to below $58, coinciding with a decrease in 10-year Treasury yields [3] - The simultaneous rise in both Treasury and stock markets is a rare occurrence, driven by traders betting on a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, where growth slows enough to curb inflation without leading to a recession [3] - The decline in energy costs is expected to further support the Treasury market, as it may cool inflation and reinforce the rationale for continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially extending the current "Goldilocks market" scenario [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices stabilized around $3985, struggling to surpass the psychological barrier of $4000 after testing a historical high of $4059 [1] - Year-to-date, gold has increased by 52%, marking a significant rise in value [1][10] - Analysts believe the gold rally is fueled by central bank purchases, institutional inflows into ETFs, and a surge in retail trading volume, indicating a "historic gold bull market" [11] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 500 points and the S&P 500 index falling over 1% [2] - The S&P 500 index recorded a weekly drop of 2.43%, the largest since June, while the Nasdaq index fell 2.53%, marking its biggest weekly decline since April [2] - Market sentiment was negatively impacted by President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, in response to stricter export controls on rare earth minerals [2] Group 3: U.S. Government Shutdown - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has dampened market sentiment, with the federal employee layoff process officially initiated [3] - Predictions indicate a 37% chance of the shutdown lasting over 30 days, an increase from 15% at the onset of the shutdown [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [6] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for further rate reductions, coinciding with his potential candidacy for the next Fed chair [5][6] Group 5: Japanese Political Landscape - The Japanese ruling coalition has fractured as the Komeito party withdraws support, creating uncertainty for future political and legislative agendas [7][8] - Despite this setback, analysts suggest that the new Prime Minister, likely to be Kishi Nobuo, may still proceed with aggressive fiscal policies [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% last month to address a slowdown in hiring and rising inflation, which continues to pressure low- and middle-income families [3] - Inflation has not returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the trade policies initiated by former President Trump have contributed to rising prices [3][6] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by differing opinions among officials regarding the temporary nature of tariff-induced inflation [3][6] Group 2 - The Fed has maintained interest rates for nine months to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on the economy, while also facing pressures in the labor market [3][6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to balance inflation control with the goal of full employment, indicating that there is no risk-free path forward [3][6] - Economic forecasts suggest that the Fed may lower borrowing costs two more times by the end of the year to prevent a spike in unemployment [6][7] Group 3 - Recent labor department data shows sluggish job growth, with rising unemployment rates among young people and minorities, and the number of job seekers exceeding available positions [7] - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding employment and inflation [7] - Market expectations indicate a likely interest rate cut of 0.25% during the upcoming policy meeting on October 28-29 [7] Group 4 - The inflation rate has increased by approximately 20% since January 2021, leading low-income families to cut spending or opt for cheaper alternatives [8] - There is a growing economic divide, with high-income consumers maintaining stable sentiment while low-income consumers face significant challenges [8] - The housing market remains under pressure due to insufficient supply, high prices, and rising mortgage rates, impacting affordability for potential buyers [8][9] Group 5 - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Fed, including attempts to influence leadership changes and policy direction, which raises concerns about the Fed's independence [9] - The ongoing economic uncertainty and data interruptions present challenges for the Fed in managing inflation and unemployment effectively [9]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The main trend of gold and silver continues to rise, with COMEX gold increasing by 1.89% and COMEX silver by 6.92% this week [1][2] - The strong performance of precious metals is supported by robust US GDP data, which led to a temporary adjustment followed by a recovery in upward momentum [2] - The expectation of a slow bull market for gold with decreasing volatility in the future is noted, alongside a positive outlook for the precious metals sector due to ongoing de-dollarization and ETF inflows [2] Group 2: Copper - Supply disruptions are expected to elevate the price center for copper, with Freeport Indonesia lowering its Q4 copper production guidance to "negligible levels" and reducing the 2026 annual production forecast by 35% [2] - The global electrolytic copper balance may reverse by late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, with domestic consumption expected to rise as the peak season approaches, potentially boosting copper prices [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The outlook for aluminum prices remains positive despite a slight decline of 0.24% this week, with expectations of increased downstream consumption due to seasonal factors [3] - The impact of US aluminum tariffs is considered limited, and the long-term view suggests that the price center for electrolytic aluminum may continue to rise as inventories are depleted [3] Group 4: Lithium - Lithium prices have seen a slight increase driven by pre-holiday stocking, with demand expected to maintain high growth due to significant contracts signed by major companies [4] - The supply-demand balance for lithium is anticipated to improve marginally, with strategic importance highlighted by government discussions regarding lithium projects [4] Group 5: Uranium - Uranium prices have surged to $83 per pound, primarily due to continued purchasing by SPUT funds, indicating the start of an upward cycle [4] - The fourth quarter is historically a peak procurement season, with expectations for sustained price increases as nuclear power operators begin to purchase [4] Group 6: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to maintain an upward trend following the implementation of export bans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, despite initial market reactions [4] - The market is adjusting to the new policies, with significant price increases observed across various cobalt products, indicating a tightening supply situation in China [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Core Insights - The Bitcoin market experienced a sudden crash on September 22, 2025, with its price dropping to around $114,000, leading to a significant loss in market capitalization and the liquidation of $1.7 billion in long positions [1] - Analyst Paolo Schiavone from Goldman Sachs identified this crash as a pivotal moment, indicating a shift in market dynamics and warning that falling below the 200-day moving average would increase risks [1][2] - Following the crash, Bitcoin's price stabilized around $109,000, with market participants showing mixed emotions and a lack of decisive trading activity [3][5] Market Dynamics - The market showed signs of indecision with a horizontal consolidation phase following the initial crash, and trading volumes decreased significantly [2] - There was a split in market sentiment, with half of the participants concerned about inflation and the other half worried about growth, leading to fragmented trading behavior [2] - The futures market indicated a cooling of bullish sentiment, as the perpetual funding rate shifted from positive to near zero, suggesting a decrease in long positions [3] Technical Analysis - The 200-day moving average is viewed as a psychological threshold for traders, with its breach potentially leading to risk aversion among market participants [6] - The market's reaction to technical indicators is influenced by the distribution of holdings, with long-term holders remaining stable while short-term leverage is decreasing [5][6] - The behavior of the AI-related stocks in the U.S. market, particularly Nvidia, showed signs of fatigue, which could impact broader market sentiment [3] External Influences - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with discussions around fiscal discipline resurfacing, impacting market expectations [2] - The potential for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy remains, with GDP growth projected at 2% and core PCE around 3%, indicating that the economy has not yet reached a critical downturn [5] - The interconnectedness of global markets was evident, as the decline in Bitcoin prices also affected technology indices in the Chinese market [5] Future Outlook - The upcoming employment data in early October could significantly influence market sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut if job data continues to weaken [5][7] - The market is expected to experience increased volatility as it navigates through the end of September and the beginning of October, with traders advised to remain cautious [7] - The potential for a rebound exists, but it may be short-lived and fragmented due to the current market conditions and sentiment [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent preventive rate cut of 25 basis points is the fifth of its kind in the past 30 years, indicating a response to rising employment risks despite stable GDP growth [1] - Historically, previous preventive rate cuts have led to a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with GDP growth reversing its downward trend and a slight decrease in unemployment rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's action is a response to increased employment risks, not a significant downturn in GDP [1] - The historical context shows that similar rate cuts have previously resulted in economic stabilization and recovery [1][2] - The current market conditions suggest that new opportunities may arise as the economic landscape evolves post-rate cut [1]