Core Insights - The article emphasizes the timeless principles of value investing as articulated in Benjamin Graham's "Security Analysis," which remains relevant despite changing market conditions and investment paradigms [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - "Security Analysis" was published in 1934, following the 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression, which significantly influenced Graham's investment philosophy [1]. - The book critiques the stock selection criteria used during the bull market prior to the crash, highlighting a shift from focusing on tangible assets and dividends to speculative future earnings [1][2]. Group 2: Evolution of Investment Principles - The article discusses the transition from valuing tangible assets in Graham's era to recognizing the importance of intangible assets like patents and brands in the late 20th century, and the emergence of network effects as a key competitive advantage in the 21st century [2]. Group 3: Timeless Investment Principles - The first principle is "Equity Thinking," which emphasizes viewing investments from an owner's perspective, reinforcing the idea that value is the foundation of investment [4]. - The second principle is "Contrarian Thinking," which encourages investors to question market consensus and act against prevailing emotions, advocating for buying undervalued assets and selling overvalued ones [5]. - The third principle is "Risk Thinking," which highlights the importance of recognizing asymmetric risks in finance and the necessity of strategies that ensure capital safety and satisfactory returns [6]. Group 4: Conclusion - The article concludes that the core principles of equity thinking, contrarian thinking, and risk thinking from "Security Analysis" are essential for successful investing across different market conditions and should be deeply understood and applied [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of A-shares due to the end of tariff shocks and the return of low interest rates and risk appetite, emphasizing the importance of timing and style rotation in investment strategies [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on "value stock selection, technical timing, and prioritizing capital safety," focusing on steady investments and capturing opportunities during market corrections [5]. - The advisor emphasizes the importance of timing in investments, advocating for a right-side trading approach that allows for better investor experience [6]. Valuation and Safety Margin - Valuation assessment combines both art and science, relying on financial data and industry trends while also considering market conditions [7]. - Key indicators for judging valuation include historical comparisons, industry benchmarks, and dynamic PE ratios, with a cautious approach to maintaining a safety margin [8]. Stock Selection Strategy - The advisor prefers a bottom-up stock selection strategy, focusing on individual company fundamentals rather than macroeconomic trends [9]. - A good company is defined by reasonable valuation, consistent profit growth exceeding 20%, significant competitive advantages, and strong cash flow [10]. Financial Statement Analysis - Financial statements are crucial for assessing a company's operational status and identifying potential risks, requiring a thorough understanding of historical data [11][12].

Core Insights - The book "The Ideas of Economics" focuses on the evolution of economic thought over the past 200 years, presenting a collective biography of influential economists [1][4] - It features 13 prominent economists, including Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Karl Marx, and Joseph Stiglitz, highlighting their contributions to modern economic theory [1][5] Summary by Sections - **Historical Context**: The book emphasizes the need for a comprehensive historical understanding of economic theories to appreciate their relevance and application in contemporary contexts [4] - **Influential Theories**: Key theories discussed include labor division, comparative advantage, marginal utility, and Nash equilibrium, which have shaped discussions on market intervention, taxation, and monetary policy [4] - **Selection Criteria**: The selection of the 13 economists is based on their significant contributions to modern economic thought rather than their radical ideas, acknowledging the challenge of choosing from numerous influential figures [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of simplifying complex investment analysis while maintaining a deep understanding of the underlying fundamentals of companies and industries [4][6][30]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The essence of successful investing lies in balancing short-term demands with long-term goals, recognizing that perfect information is unattainable and focusing on risk and return [1][2]. - A key judgment standard is to simplify while ensuring a deep understanding of the essence of the business [4][7]. Group 2: Identifying Quality Companies - A good company is characterized by its competitive advantages, often referred to as a "moat," which should be as wide as possible [10]. - Essential structural features of quality companies include low capital intensity, pricing power, stable recurring revenue, enduring market position, and long-term growth potential [11]. - The analysis should start from the balance sheet and cash flow statement rather than the income statement to reveal the true operational essence of a company [12]. Group 3: Management Team Evaluation - The integrity of the management team is crucial; if management is not trustworthy, it is advisable to avoid the stock altogether [15]. - Evaluating management involves examining their incentive structures, time allocation, and conducting thorough market research to cross-verify their capabilities [19][20]. - The allocation of resources by management during critical times can significantly impact long-term outcomes, making capital allocation a key indicator of management quality [17][18]. Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - Determining a "reasonable" price for a company is more challenging than assessing its quality, and it should be grounded in an understanding of the business's fundamentals [22]. - The concept of a company's moat should be assessed not just on historical performance but also on current competitive positioning and potential vulnerabilities [24]. - A clear valuation model is essential, focusing on future cash flows and the necessary capital investments to sustain growth [28][27]. Group 5: Practical Insights - Investors should ask critical questions to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the company, such as its sustainable competitive advantages and its resilience in downturns [25][26]. - The article highlights the importance of focusing on shareholder returns and examining the company's capital structure to understand the volatility of equity value [29].

Core Insights - The core argument emphasizes that the electric vehicle (EV) industry should focus on optimizing battery technology and vehicle weight rather than merely increasing battery size for extended range [2][3][4] Group 1: Battery Technology and Vehicle Weight - Li Bin, CEO of NIO, argues that while larger batteries can improve range, they also increase vehicle weight, leading to safety challenges and higher road damage, which many countries tax based on vehicle weight [2] - The concept of "diminishing marginal returns" is highlighted, where increasing battery size may not yield proportional benefits in range due to increased energy consumption from heavier vehicles [2] - The importance of battery performance is underscored, as it directly affects key metrics such as range, acceleration, and charging time, with high-performance batteries being essential for both daily commuting and long-distance travel [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The Chinese EV market has seen explosive growth, with the total number of EVs reaching 24.72 million by mid-2024, of which 73.35% are pure electric vehicles [6] - As the EV ownership surpasses ten million, the industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," indicating a focus on improving the quality and efficiency of EVs [7] Group 3: Industry Structure and Competition - The competition in the EV sector is fundamentally a competition in battery technology, with battery manufacturing occupying a core position in the upstream of the EV supply chain [4] - In 2024, the battery segment is projected to account for over 40% of the total output value of China's EV industry chain [4]

证券研究报告 固收 细数债市"微操"策略 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 固定收益周报 报告核心观点 2025 年已行至年中，投资者对债市操作难度攀升感受越发深刻。当前债市 趋势在，但利率下行空间受限、票面低、波动区间窄、交易"内卷"加剧、 策略挖掘过度等困境。投资者重点关注换券、信用债 ETF 重仓券埋伏、压 缩利差以及一级投标博边际等"微操"策略，获取α机会，不过目前已较为 拥挤。向前看，债市方向整体略偏多、空间有限，利差压缩等"微操"行情 仍可能有一定惯性。不过长端信用利差已较低，即便还能压缩，也要考虑配 置盘缺位以及可能的波动。此外，换券操作有所失灵，上周信用债 ETF 指 数成分券的利差压缩已到极致，建议投资者适度规避甚至"反其道行之"。 策略一："逐渐失灵"的换券操作 今年以来债市投资者对新老券"换券"等小策略的关注度不断上升，交易盘不 断超前"做左侧"。历史数据统计来看，换券操作能够起到一定的增厚效果。 不过二季度以来，随着市场进入交易"内卷"阶段，换券策略的赚钱效应存在 "失灵"迹象。一方面，新券向活跃券的转换周期显著缩短；另一方面，新老 券套息空间持续收窄，市场甚至在新券上市前就提 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the securities industry significantly supported the development of the real economy, with A-share equity underwriting amounting to over 700 billion yuan, while the competitive landscape among leading brokers has changed due to strategic mergers and consolidations [1][2]. Group 1: Equity Underwriting Performance - The total A-share equity underwriting amount for brokers reached 709.85 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, driven by major banks completing significant A-share stock issuances [2]. - Guotai Junan, resulting from a strategic merger, led the underwriting scale with 123.38 billion yuan, surpassing the traditional leaders "Three Zhong and One Hua" [2][3]. - The top five brokers accounted for 68% of the total equity underwriting market share, highlighting the continued prominence of leading firms [2]. Group 2: IPO and Refinance Underwriting - The total underwriting amount for IPOs was 38.00 billion yuan, with CITIC Securities leading at 8.43 billion yuan [2]. - In the refinancing sector, brokers underwrote a total of 641.58 billion yuan in private placements, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities taking the top spots [3]. - The competition in the convertible bond market intensified, with total underwriting reaching 30.28 billion yuan, led by CITIC Securities [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The revenue from investment banking services showed signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year increase of 5.39% in the first quarter [4]. - Analysts expect that the deepening reforms in the capital market will enhance the activity of IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, contributing to the recovery of investment banking services [4][5]. - The concentration of investment banking business is anticipated to increase further, particularly among leading brokers with superior resources and service capabilities [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing in the Chinese market, highlighting that "Securities Analysis" serves as an essential guide for investors to understand both the methodology and philosophy behind value investing [3][9] - It discusses three main investment principles from Graham: margin of safety, Mr. Market, and investing with a business perspective, which are interconnected and form a logical framework for value investing [6][9] Financial Analysis - The book "Securities Analysis" uses accounting language as its foundation, focusing on financial statements to provide a practical methodology for fundamental analysis [4] - It suggests that analyzing a company's financial performance over time can help assess its intrinsic capabilities and value, similar to evaluating a student's academic performance [4][5] - The article stresses the need to look beyond surface-level profit growth and to analyze the underlying capabilities of companies through their financial reports [6][7] Market Dynamics - The article notes that price fluctuations reflect underlying value, with stock prices being influenced by both fundamental data and intrinsic capabilities [8] - It highlights the volatility of stock prices in the A-share market, which can create opportunities for investors when prices are significantly undervalued [8] - The discussion includes the importance of understanding a company's core competitiveness, industry landscape, and management quality as part of assessing its intrinsic value [8][9] Investment Philosophy - The article asserts that value investing is applicable in China, supported by historical evidence of high long-term returns for skilled value investors [9] - It emphasizes the necessity for investors to develop discipline and independent judgment, which can be enhanced by mastering the knowledge and techniques presented in "Securities Analysis" [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

文丨塞思·卡拉曼 编辑丨林伟萍 编者按 《证券分析》被誉为投资者的圣经，自1934年出版以来，90多年仍畅销不衰，是价值投资的经典之作。 近日，湛庐出版社推出证券分析（全新升级版），第7版原汁原味地保留了格雷厄姆极为喜欢、巴菲特极为珍爱的第2版全部内容，同时增加了包括伯 克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席投资官托德·库姆斯等在内的15位华尔街投资大师的导读。 新版本还特别邀请到了Baupost集团首席执行官兼投资组合经理、投资经典《安全边际》作者塞思·卡拉曼担纲主编并撰写全新序言。他在序言中介 绍，第7版是在第6版的基础上进行了扩展，回顾了市场、当前经济背景和商业环境变化，以及投资管理和证券分析领域的最新发展。 "在提炼多年市场变化时，我们努力将现实和永恒的投资智慧区别开，剔除那些短暂、多变和虚幻的因素。尽管市场在过去的90年中经历了巨大的变 化，书中的历史案例也显露出它们的年代久远，但在这本书中，你将看到《证券分析》许多核心的价值投资原则在今天仍然适用，甚至比以往更具价 值。" 正如卡拉曼所言，投资的真正秘诀在于"投资没有秘诀"。 识别和买入低价证券是价值投资者的最佳选择。但是，在哪个价格点上才能买入或继续持有，这是一 ...