Group 1: Macro Overview - The "anti-involution" policy is beginning to influence various industries in China, affecting supply and demand dynamics despite ongoing deflationary pressures [1][2] - July economic data shows that CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, while PPI maintained a deflation level of -3.6%, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - The policy has led to slight price recoveries in specific commodities like coal and cement, but the sustainability of these effects is uncertain without stronger demand-side measures [2] Group 2: Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is experiencing a supply contraction coinciding with a seasonal demand increase, with predictions that lithium prices may exceed 80,000 yuan per ton [3][4] - A significant supply reduction is expected due to the suspension of operations at a major lithium mine, which could decrease global lithium supply by 4-6% annually [3] - Demand for lithium is projected to rise significantly, particularly in the battery sector, with expectations of a monthly increase of 5,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from August to November [3] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is seeing a dual impact from supply-side production cuts and demand support from new infrastructure projects [5][6] - Major cement producers are voluntarily reducing production, with some regions coordinating extended shutdowns to improve supply-demand balance [5] - New infrastructure projects, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan Yajiang Hydropower Station, are expected to bolster cement demand and alleviate downward pressure on the industry [5] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have been upgraded to "buy" ratings due to improved production capabilities and favorable market conditions [4] - The profitability outlook for cement companies, such as Anhui Conch Cement, has been raised, reflecting market expectations of policy effectiveness and improved cash flow [6][7] - The overall sentiment indicates that structural opportunities may arise in sectors with clear supply-demand mismatches and strong policy support [7]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden shift in the U.S. Treasury Secretary's stance towards China reflects a strategic retreat by the Trump administration after facing multiple failures in its aggressive policies [1][3][19]. Group 1: Energy Policy - Trump's initial strategy involved leveraging energy sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil to create global supply tensions, aiming to address domestic economic issues [5][7]. - The OPEC+ decision to increase oil production undermined Trump's plan, preventing the desired volatility in oil prices that could have pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [7][9]. Group 2: Trade and Alliances - Trump's approach to isolate China involved threatening tariffs on key allies, hoping to create a perception of U.S. dominance in international negotiations [10][12]. - While some agreements were reached with the EU and Japan, these were met with significant domestic opposition, indicating a lack of genuine commitment to U.S. demands [12][14]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Challenges - Recent labor data revealed a significant downturn in employment, comparable to post-pandemic levels, which directly challenged Trump's narrative of a strong economy [17]. - In response to negative economic reports, Trump dismissed the head of the statistics bureau, highlighting his anxiety and inability to address the underlying issues [17][19]. Group 4: Political Implications - The combination of failed external strategies and poor domestic economic performance led to a drop in Trump's approval ratings to a new low of 37%, raising concerns within the Republican Party about upcoming elections [19][21]. - The shift in U.S. policy towards China is seen as a last resort after exhausting other options, indicating a retreat from aggressive posturing to a focus on domestic crisis management [21].

Group 1: Overall Consumption Trends - The overall consumption market shows a gradual recovery, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.6% in Q1 and 5.4% in Q2, leading to a total retail sales of 24.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, contributing 52% to economic growth [1][5] - However, in June, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales dropped to 4.8%, lower than the GDP growth rate of 5.3%, indicating a more complex reality in the consumption market [1][5] - The decline in June reflects a shift in consumer behavior, with spending moving from high-ticket dining to more affordable options like snacks and fast food [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Spending Patterns - In June, restaurant income growth slowed significantly to 0.9% compared to 5.9% in May, with high-end dining establishments experiencing a 0.4% decline in revenue [3][5] - Retail sales of discretionary items such as beverages, tobacco, and cosmetics also saw a year-on-year decline, indicating consumers are more cautious with non-essential spending [3][5] - Households are increasing savings, with new household deposits rising by 10.77 trillion yuan while loans only grew by 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting a conservative financial strategy [5] Group 3: Impact of E-commerce and Instant Retail - Online retail sales grew by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly outpacing overall retail sales growth, with online sales accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [5] - Instant retail is rapidly gaining traction, with major internet platforms enhancing local merchant partnerships and logistics to offer delivery within 30 minutes, posing a significant threat to traditional supermarkets [6][8] - Traditional supermarkets are losing customer appeal as consumer habits shift towards convenience and immediate fulfillment, leading to a decline in foot traffic [6][8] Group 4: Challenges Facing Traditional Supermarkets - Traditional supermarkets are struggling, with limited growth in sales despite efforts to optimize store experiences and product offerings [9][12] - Financial reports indicate significant losses for major supermarket chains, such as Zhongbai Group and Yonghui Supermarket, highlighting the difficulties in reversing declining trends [8][12] - The fundamental issue lies in the mismatch of business models, as instant retail increasingly meets consumer needs more effectively than traditional supermarkets [11][12] Group 5: Price Trends and Economic Pressures - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first half of 2025, marking the first negative growth for this period in recent years [13][15] - There is a structural divergence in price trends, with commodity prices declining while service prices are rising, creating challenges for traditional retailers [15][17] - Retailers face pressure from falling prices in core categories like fresh produce and daily necessities, which compresses profit margins and intensifies competition [17][19] Group 6: Strategic Recommendations for Retailers - Retailers need to move beyond simple price competition and focus on enhancing supply chain efficiency, developing private labels, and enriching service experiences to create differentiated competitive advantages [20] - The current market environment necessitates a structural approach to building cost and value barriers to better navigate cyclical changes [20]

Group 1 - The overall economic performance in China is stable with improvements in exports and consumption growth, while facing challenges from the real estate market and external uncertainties [1][2] - The real estate market remains a significant negative factor for economic performance, with sales declining over 10% year-on-year in major cities and liquidity pressures on developers [3][4][5] - Real estate investment is expected to fluctuate around -10%, contributing to a decline in nominal GDP growth by 0.75 percentage points [5][6] Group 2 - Private investment growth is weak, with a continuous decline in fixed asset investment since 2023, primarily due to the downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - Structural issues, including market access restrictions and increased regulatory scrutiny, are contributing to the low enthusiasm for private investment [6][7] - Consumer spending may face challenges due to potential resource shortages in policy support and a conservative consumption attitude among residents [7][8] Group 3 - Export performance is under pressure from U.S. tariffs and trade barriers, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries [8][9] - Domestic demand remains weak, leading to structural deflationary pressures, with CPI and PPI showing declines [10][11] - Local government finances are strained due to declining land sales and high debt repayment pressures, limiting infrastructure investment capabilities [11][12] Group 4 - Monetary policy needs to improve coordination with fiscal policy to effectively support economic growth [12][13] - There is a need for targeted measures to support the real estate sector and enhance liquidity for developers [14][15] - Increased support for private enterprises and consumer spending is essential to stimulate economic activity [16][17] Group 5 - Recommendations include expanding fiscal support for trade enterprises and enhancing capital market stability through various financial tools [20][21][22] - The government should implement measures to alleviate the financial burden on local governments and improve their investment capabilities [23][24] - A proactive monetary policy approach is necessary to address deflationary pressures and stabilize the economy [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Although the US restarted the tariff war, the market's reaction has become dull. With the release of semi-annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about the first-half earnings of listed companies. The previous series of growth-stabilizing policies are starting to take effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive economic data in the second quarter. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [6][97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.46% for the week, IH2509 rose 1.27%, IC2509 rose 2.69%, and IM2509 rose 3.40%. - Spot: The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 rose 1.96%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump announced a new round of tariff rates, which may have a negative impact on the market, but the market's reaction has become dull. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase, which is positive for the market. - As of July 10, 129 out of 147 A-share listed companies that have announced their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to be profitable, which is positive for the market [6][13][97]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the STAR 50 rose 0.98%, the SME 100 rose 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [16]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.73%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors strengthening significantly, while coal and banking sectors weakened slightly [21]. - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flow**: Industry main funds were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in electronics, computer, and national defense and military industries [25]. - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was low [29]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders net sold 6.61 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted-share lifting market value was 43.09 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 688.585 billion yuan [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to be supported by the fundamental recovery, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat desensitized after previous fluctuations in trade relations. With the release of listed companies' semi - annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about their H1 earnings. A series of pro - growth policies are taking effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive Q2 economic data. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching July Politburo meeting, market bulls may pre - position, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF main contract (2509) at 3972.0, up 15.0; IH main contract (2509) at 2740.4, up 13.4; IC main contract (2509) at 5854.2, up 24.2; IM main contract (2509) at 6231.6, up 11.8. IF sub - main contract (2507) at 3997.2, up 15.4; IH sub - main contract (2507) at 2745.4, up 14.0; IC sub - main contract (2507) at 5958.8, up 21.6; IM sub - main contract (2507) at 6375.2, up 10.2 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread at 1251.8, up 4.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread at 1961.6, up 8.6; IM - IC current - month contract spread at 416.4, down 12.4; IC - IH current - month contract spread at 3213.4, up 13.2; IM - IF current - month contract spread at 2378.0, down 3.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread at 3629.8, up 0.8 [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: IF current - quarter to current - month at - 25.2, down 1.0; IF next - quarter to current - month at - 55.6, up 1.4; IH current - quarter to current - month at - 5.0, up 0.8; IH next - quarter to current - month at - 4, up 0.6; IC current - quarter to current - month at - 104.6, up 2.0; IC next - quarter to current - month at - 227.6, up 2.4; IM current - quarter to current - month at - 143.6, up 1.2; IM next - quarter to current - month at - 328.8, up 2.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions at - 29,557.00, down 216.0; IH top 20 net positions at - 14,304.00, up 275.0; IC top 20 net positions at - 10,512.00, down 601.0; IM top 20 net positions at - 36,476.00, up 278.0 [2]. Spot Prices - CSI 300 at 4010.02, up 18.6; SSE 50 at 2756.93, up 17.0; CSI 500 at 5983.05, up 29.6; CSI 1000 at 6406.57, up 16.1. IF main contract basis at - 38.0, up 0.6; IH main contract basis at - 16.5, down 0.6; IC main contract basis at - 128.9, up 1.2; IM main contract basis at - 175.0, up 1.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume at 15,150.68 billion yuan, down 123.53 billion yuan; margin trading balance at 18,687.97 billion yuan, up 38.65 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume at 1818.91 billion yuan, up 142.25 billion yuan; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation) at - 572.0 billion yuan, up 900.0 billion yuan; main funds at - 449.96 billion yuan (yesterday) and - 192.38 billion yuan (today) [2]. - Rising stock ratio at 54.37%, up 20.10%; Shibor at 1.316%, up 0.003%; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) at 29.00, up 5.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility at 11.69%, down 0.23%; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) at 29.60, down 12.40; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility at 11.69%, down 0.23%; CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility at 9.25%, up 0.05%; trading volume PCR at 51.64%, down 1.13%; open interest PCR at 73.00%, up 1.18% [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 6.00, up 2.00; technical aspect at 5.40, up 2.00; capital aspect at 6.50, up 1.90 [2]. Industry News - Trump announced on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he plans to impose tariffs on specific industries like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also mentioned a 10% tariff on each BRICS member country [2]. - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the US delegation will meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues, with members including the Treasury Secretary and the US Trade Representative [2]. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year (previous value down 0.1%), down 0.1% month - on - month (previous value down 0.2%); PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year (previous value down 3.3%), down 0.4% month - on - month (previous value down 0.4%) [2]. Key Events to Watch - St. Louis Fed President Sam Lem to speak on July 10 at 21:00; Fed Governor Waller to speak on July 11 at 1:15; China's June financial data release time is pending [3]

Group 1 - The current inflation situation in the Eurozone faces multiple downward pressures, with a warning that the recent rapid rise of the euro against the dollar and energy market volatility due to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts may cause inflation rates to deviate from the 2% target [1] - The probability of inflation remaining below the target level has exceeded the upside risks, according to the Lithuanian central bank governor [1] - Despite forecasts indicating that inflation will stabilize at 2% by 2027, current price trends remain uncertain, influenced by geopolitical risks and aggressive trade protectionism policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the July meeting is the most probable policy option, aligning with market expectations [3] - Since the start of the current easing cycle in June 2024, the European Central Bank has consecutively lowered the benchmark interest rate eight times, with expectations for further rate cuts in September [3] - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. is currently 10%, and the impact of existing trade barriers on the real economy has not yet fully manifested [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - A-share major indices fluctuated narrowly this week and all recorded declines, with only the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index falling more than 1%. The four stock index futures also showed narrow fluctuations, and the differentiation between large and small-cap stocks was not obvious. The market trading activity significantly rebounded compared with last week. Overseas, the US extended the exemption period for the Section 301 investigation on China during the Dragon Boat Festival, while the Israel-Iran conflict intensified regional tensions, causing global risk assets to weaken. The US plan to impose additional tariffs on steel household appliances also had a negative impact on the market. Domestically, in May, the CPI turned from rising to falling month-on-month, the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, the year-on-year decline of PPI widened further, and the CPI-PPI gap widened, indicating continued pressure on prices. The scale of China's import and export trade further shrank in May due to tariff policies. Overall, the previous positive news from China-US trade negotiations has been mostly reflected in prices. The market is currently affected by overseas geopolitical situations and the repeated changes in the trade war. Meanwhile, domestic deflationary pressure persists, and the import and export are weak under tariff impacts, putting pressure on the economic fundamentals and limiting the upside space of the market. The market is in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, making it difficult for the stock market to strengthen significantly. After the short-term risk sentiment is released, the stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4][85]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures Contracts: IF2506 had a weekly increase of 0.03%, IH2506 decreased by 0.31%, IC2506 increased by 0.06%, and IM2506 decreased by 0.26%. - Spot Indices: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.46%, the China Securities 500 Index decreased by 0.38%, and the China Securities 1000 Index decreased by 0.76% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - Economic Data: In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month; PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. From January to May 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. - International Events: The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The US will impose additional tariffs on steel household appliances starting from June 23. Israel attacked Iran on June 12 [11][12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index decreased by 1.89%, the SME 100 Index decreased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.22%. - Overseas Main Indices: As of Thursday, the S&P 500 increased by 0.75%, the UK FTSE 100 increased by 0.53%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.42%, and the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.25%. - Industry Sector Performance: Non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemical sectors strengthened significantly, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors declined significantly. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Most industry main funds showed net outflows, with the computer sector having a large net outflow. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: It first declined and then rose, and the capital market remained loose. - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.139 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted share lifting market value was 62.877 billion yuan, and the northbound funds had a total trading volume of 592.392 billion yuan. The basis of the IF, IC, and IM main contracts oscillated and converged, while the basis of the IH main contract oscillated [16][17][21][25][29][30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: After the short-term risk sentiment is released, the stock market is expected to remain in a volatile state. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for now [85].

Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Invest, predicts that the U.S. economy will face deflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience deflation, which could impact consumer spending and investment [1] - Wood emphasizes that technological advancements and productivity improvements are key factors contributing to this deflationary trend [1] Group 2: Investment Implications - The anticipated deflation may lead to a shift in investment strategies, favoring growth-oriented sectors that can thrive in a low-inflation environment [1] - Ark Invest is likely to focus on sectors such as technology and innovation, which are expected to benefit from the deflationary pressures [1]

Report Overview - The report is the "Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report" dated June 12, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment of the A - share market is complex. Although Sino - US trade relations show signs of further easing, which is short - term positive for the market, domestic deflation pressure persists, and the import and export trade is weak under tariff impacts, limiting the upside space of the market. Currently in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, large - cap blue - chip stocks are difficult to strengthen significantly, while technology stocks dominated by small and medium - cap stocks are undervalued and may rise in the short term. The strategy suggests temporarily observing for single - side trading and trying to go long IC/IM and short IF/IH for arbitrage [2] Data Summary Futures Contract Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: IF (2506) closed at 3883.6 (+2.2), IH (2506) at 2682.2 (+0.6), IC (2506) at 5780.0 (+12.0), IM (2506) at 6156.8 (+4.8). The closing prices of their corresponding secondary contracts also had various changes [2] - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts like IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] Spot Market Data - **Index Values and Changes**: The CSI 300 was at 3892.20 (-2.4), SSE 50 at 2691.28 (-0.9), CSI 500 at 5799.93 (+7.0), and CSI 1000 at 6192.22 (+5.7) [2] - **Market Turnover and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 13,036.23 billion yuan (+169.46 billion), margin trading balance was 18,189.18 billion yuan (+19.24 billion), and northbound trading volume was 1432.08 billion yuan (-147.47 billion) [2] - **Other Market Data**: The proportion of rising stocks was 42.96% (-20.07%), Shibor was 1.367% (+0.006%), and the closing prices and implied volatilities of IO options also had corresponding changes [2] Economic Data - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year (same as the previous value) and down 0.2% month - on - month (previous value up 0.1%); PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year (previous value down 2.7%) and down 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous value) [2] - **Import and Export**: In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year - on - year. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year - on - year [2] Upcoming Events - On June 12 at 20:30, the US May PPI, core PPI, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be released. On June 13 at 22:00, the US June one - year inflation rate expectation and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [3]