央行强调，在实现物价稳定前将保持整体紧缩立场，并在必要时重新收紧政策。声明指出，未来的利率 决策将逐次评估，重点关注通胀的实际表现与趋势，以确保政策路径符合去通胀目标。 （文章来源：新华财经） 今年以来，土耳其降息步伐经历调整。央行在7月重启宽松后，先后进行了大幅降息，随后在食品价格 上涨背景下放缓节奏。本次降息幅度与多数市场机构预测的150个基点一致。多项调查显示，市场普遍 预计央行将在明年继续降息。 最新调查还显示，市场预计土耳其利率可能在2026年降至约28%。央行已将2026年的通胀目标设定为 16%，预测区间在13%至19%之间。分析认为，影响未来通胀与利率走向的重要因素之一，是政府将在 近期讨论的明年最低工资涨幅。 新华财经伊斯坦布尔12月12日电（记者许万虎）在通胀降幅超出预期的背景下，土耳其央行11日宣布再 次降息，将基准利率下调150个基点至38%，显示其在通胀压力趋缓后继续推进宽松周期。 11月土耳其通胀同比上涨31.07%，为2021年底以来最低水平。央行在声明中表示，通胀预期和定价行 为虽仍构成风险，但已出现一定改善，食品价格走弱是当月数据低于预期的主要原因。央行认为，需求 环境在四季 ...

今年以来，土耳其降息步伐经历调整。央行在7月重启宽松后，先后进行了大幅降息，随后在食品价格 上涨背景下放缓节奏。本次降息幅度与多数市场机构预测的150个基点一致。多项调查显示，市场普遍 预计央行将在明年继续降息。（新华财经） 11月土耳其通胀同比上涨31.07%，为2021年底以来最低水平。央行在声明中表示，通胀预期和定价行 为虽仍构成风险，但已出现一定改善，食品价格走弱是当月数据低于预期的主要原因。央行认为，需求 环境在四季度整体有利于通胀回落。 在通胀降幅超出预期的背景下，土耳其央行12月11日宣布再次降息，将基准利率下调150个基点至 38%，显示其在通胀压力趋缓后继续推进宽松周期。 ...

报告指出，通胀持续缓和为企业经营提供了支持，今年11月年通胀率降至31.07%，为2021年11月以来 最低水平。土耳其央行预计通胀将在2026年放缓至16%左右。市场普遍预计央行将在年内最后一次会议 上再次降息。 新华财经伊斯坦布尔12月11日电（记者许万虎）摩根大通最新报告预计，在通胀回落和成本趋稳带动 下，土耳其消费品行业有望于2026年实现恢复增长。 报告指出，随着通胀回落，食品零售商利润率明年有望持续改善。出口行业方面，家电制造商出口或将 受益于未来的降息周期，但复苏可能因宽松节奏较慢而推迟；汽车制造商出口预计明年继续增长，但国 内乘用车需求或在明年趋弱，限制其利润扩张。 （文章来源：新华财经） 摩根大通称，尽管货币政策总体趋紧，但土耳其经济活动仍强于预期，私人消费继续提供支撑。预计土 耳其经济2025年增长3.8%，2026年增长4.4%。 ...

数据显示，截至10月28日当周，纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）和洲际交易所（ICE）天然气市场的投机净多头头寸减少23064 手，至181005手。 技术面：原油小时图上周维持震荡上行，终于突破60美元的重要关口，本周若能进一步上破61.50美元的位置，则有望形成多头 趋势。日内关注59.60美元的多空分界线。 铜方面：铜价上周维持震荡上行，多头强势，小时图上涨结构完好，进一步上涨的概率大。日内下方关注5.31美元的支撑，上方 关注5.42美元的阻力。 日经225方面：日经225小时图从11月4日开始震荡下行，在48000一线止跌企稳，调整结束的可能性增大。日内下方关注49800的 支撑，上方若51500的阻力则有望加速上涨。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 黄金方面：摩根士丹利最新发布的预测认为，美联储将在本月的议息会议上降息25个基点，并预计明年1月和4月分别降息25个 基点。同时表示美联储多 ...

从分项来看，食品与非酒精饮品价格环比下降0.69%，一扫过去数月对整体通胀形成的压力，使食品年 通胀回落至27.44%。CPI所追踪的143个项目中，有28项价格下降，娱乐文化、酒精饮品及住房成本涨 幅居前。 新华财经伊斯坦布尔12月4日电（记者许万虎）土耳其统计局3日公布数据显示，该国年通胀率11月降至 31.07%，显著弱于市场此前预期的31.6%。最新数据可能使年内降息预期进一步升温。 （文章来源：新华财经） 土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克表示，食品价格在8至10月曾明显上行，如今已逐渐正常化，成为当 月物价放缓的关键。预计通胀缓和将延续到12月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a temporary decline due to profit-taking, but multiple favorable factors are accumulating, with investors focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting [1][2]. Market Expectations - Investors have raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to 87%, a significant increase of 30 percentage points from the end of November, which supports silver prices [2]. - Statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Williams and Waller, have notably softened the hawkish stance, indicating that "the decline in inflation provides room for policy adjustments," further reinforcing market expectations for easing [2]. Economic Data Impact - Recent manufacturing data has fallen short of expectations, increasing pressure for a rate cut [2]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming key data releases, including the November ADP employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure [2]. Silver Market Analysis - The spot silver market remains strong, with previous fluctuations showing resilience; it dropped from $58.8 to a low of $56.6, but recent trading has created upward space [2]. - The focus for silver prices is on the resistance level at $59 and the support level at $56.5, with potential for a market shift in the coming days [2].

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the future adjustments of interest rates following two consecutive rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others express concerns about rapid policy easing [2]. Group 1: Milan's Easing Stance and Rationale - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has repeatedly voiced concerns about the current monetary policy being too tight, opposing the decision to cut rates by only 25 basis points in September and October, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut [3]. - Milan believes that the current policy rate is significantly above the neutral level, which may excessively restrict economic activity [3]. - He expresses confidence in the decline of inflation, suggesting that there is no need to maintain high interest rates [4]. - Milan highlights signs of stress in the credit market, indicating that monetary policy may negatively impact the corporate financing environment [4]. - He warns that maintaining a restrictive policy for too long could increase the risk of an economic recession [4]. Group 2: Cautious Attitudes of Other Officials - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, several policymakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adopt a more cautious approach, emphasizing concerns about inflation over labor market issues [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests keeping an open mind regarding a rate cut in December, stressing the need to balance inflation control with employment support [5]. - This divergence reflects differences in interpreting economic data, with summer hiring slowdowns raising concerns about the labor market [5][6]. - There remains uncertainty about whether inflation will continue to decline [6]. Group 3: Policy Background and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in October, marking the second consecutive rate cut following September's decision [7]. - Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, indicating that decisions will depend on subsequent economic data [7]. - Milan's transition from the White House to the Federal Reserve has led to discussions about potential political influences on his policy proposals, although he consistently argues from an economic fundamentals perspective, citing objective indicators like "credit market pressure" [7].

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, below the expected 3.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, also below the expected 0.4%, indicating lower-than-expected inflation and paving the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market investors are increasingly betting on two future rate cuts, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week and a 94.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $4,000, further declines are likely, with a key support level at $4,025 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns over oversupply, but found support and rebounded around the $56 mark [3] - U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, aimed at limiting Russian oil exports, could lead to a short-term supply crunch, as these companies account for over 5% of global oil supply [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of approximately 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, with simultaneous declines in distillate and gasoline inventories, providing support for oil prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests a strong bullish trend for oil, with potential upward movement towards $65, while key support is noted at $61.40 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices continued a volatile trend last week, with indications that the adjustment phase has ended, suggesting a high probability of upward movement this week towards the $5.33-$5.38 range [5] - A key support level for copper is identified at $5.11 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index maintained a bullish trend last week, with a high probability of further increases, although signs of fatigue in the upward movement were noted [6] - A critical level to watch for the Nikkei 225 is the 49,350 mark, which serves as a dividing line for bullish and bearish sentiment [6]

Group 1 - The French stock market continues to strengthen, with the CAC40 index rising by 0.1% to 7835 points, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of gains [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, driven by recent U.S. inflation data meeting expectations and an increase in initial jobless claims to a nearly four-year high, reinforcing easing expectations [1] - The European Central Bank has indicated that the rate-cutting cycle may be coming to an end, with President Lagarde stating that the decline in inflation is largely complete and economic growth risks are becoming more balanced [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely watching for the announcement of France's sovereign credit rating by Fitch, which is expected to be released after today's market close [1] - Euronext has announced that TP (formerly Teleperformance) will be removed from the CAC40 index starting September 22 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has decided to lower the benchmark interest rate from 43% to 40.5%, a reduction of 250 basis points, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, indicating ongoing concerns about domestic demand and inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank maintains a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved [1] - The medium-term goal is to reduce the inflation rate to 5% within a foreseeable timeframe [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Turkey's inflation rate peaked at 85.5% in October 2022, prompting the Central Bank to restart the interest rate hike cycle in mid-2023 to combat high inflation [1] - As of August 2025, Turkey's inflation rate has decreased to 32.95%, showing signs of improvement [1]