Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider an earlier interest rate cut due to the diminishing impact of tariffs and a decline in inflation [1] Group 1 - The reduction in tariffs has contributed to a more favorable economic environment, potentially influencing the Fed's decision-making process [1] - Inflation rates are showing signs of easing, which could further support the case for a rate cut [1] - The combination of these factors indicates a shift in monetary policy outlook, with implications for various sectors and investment strategies [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market covering the week up to June 27, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the precious metals market including gold and silver, focusing on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors [7] Group 2: Market Trends Gold - Gold prices initially rose due to increased safe - haven demand from Iran's attack on US military bases but later fell as the Iran - Israel cease - fire deal improved market risk appetite. Weak US economic data and mixed Fed officials' stances affected the market. Gold prices dropped significantly on Friday due to cooling risk - aversion [7] - COMEX gold was at $3304.6 per ounce on June 27, 2025, down 2.40% from the previous period; the Shanghai gold main contract 2508 was at 766.40 yuan per gram, down 1.88% [10] Silver - Silver prices showed resilience due to their industrial properties. COMEX silver was at $36.675 per ounce on June 27, 2025, up 1.83% from the previous period; the Shanghai silver main contract 2508 was at 8792 yuan per kilogram, up 0.61% [10] Group 3: Market Outlook - Weak US economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials boost the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is positive for the monetary attribute of gold. However, the upward movement of gold prices may face resistance as investors' interest in gold as a safe - haven tool weakens [7] - The cease - fire between Iran and Israel is fragile, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict affects European energy security, providing some support for gold's safe - haven demand [7] - Fed's policy stance and inflation - employment data will determine the future trend of precious metals [7] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the short term, be aware of the risk of price corrections. For the Shanghai gold 2508 contract, the expected trading range is 750 - 780 yuan per gram; for the Shanghai silver 2508 contract, it is 8700 - 9000 yuan per kilogram. For COMEX gold futures, the range is $3260 - $3350 per ounce, and for COMEX silver futures, it is $36 - $37 per ounce [7] Group 5: Market Indicators ETFs - As of June 26, 2025, the net holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.64% to 953.39 tons, and the net holdings of SLV Silver ETF increased by 0.70% to 14866.19 tons [15] Futures Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold total positions increased by 5.77% to 441214 contracts, and net positions increased by 7.02% to 200648 contracts. COMEX silver total positions increased by 6.05% to 184831 contracts, and net positions increased by 0.79% to 67174 contracts [20] CFTC Positions - As of June 17, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 5.90% to 260586 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 2.40% to 59938 contracts [25] Basis - As of June 26, 2025, the gold basis was - 7.28 yuan per gram, down 360.8% from the previous period; the silver basis was - 40 yuan per kilogram, down 133% [28] Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.9% to 37048334.61 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 18168 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.20% to 498310493 troy ounces, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.70% to 1230233 kilograms [33] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver - In May 2025, China's silver imports decreased by 2.46% to 273741.39 kilograms, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54% to 136237148.00 kilograms [39] - In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4240000.00 units, with a year - on - year growth rate of 11.5% [44] - In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces (compared to - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year). Total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [50] - By the end of 2024, total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% from the previous period [54] Gold - As of June 26, 2025, the recycling price of China Gold decreased by 1.12% to 768.8 yuan per gram. The gold prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou decreased by 1.18%, 2.16%, and 2.69% respectively [58] - In the first quarter of 2025, gold industrial (technology) demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand increased by 71.93% to 50741 ounces, gold jewelry demand decreased by 10.47% to 39899.9 ounces, and total gold demand increased by 7.12% to 120440.4 ounces [64] Group 7: Macroeconomic Factors - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year Treasury yield both declined [66] - The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [71] - The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate decreased this week [76] - In June 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey increased its gold reserves by 2.12 tons [80]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin a series of seven interest rate cuts starting in March 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 2.5% to 2.75%, which is significantly lower than the current policy rate and earlier than most institutions expect [1][3]. Economic Growth and Inflation Trends - The prediction is based on the assessment of a downward trend in economic growth and a decline in inflation. Over the past two years, the Fed has maintained interest rates above 5% to combat persistent inflation, but with a cooling labor market and weakening core price increases, the monetary environment has tightened [3]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that by 2026, the U.S. economy will experience a cyclical slowdown, leading to a decrease in potential output growth and a structural slowdown in investment, necessitating a swift shift to accommodative monetary policy to prevent a hard landing [3]. Inflation Cycle and Monetary Policy - The end of the inflation cycle may arrive sooner than the market expects. Despite Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on a temporary rise in inflation during the summer, trends in rent, healthcare, and commodity prices indicate that most price structures are entering a downward trajectory [3]. - If energy prices remain stable and labor supply improves, inflation expectations may stabilize over the next two years, providing the Fed with ample room to implement easing measures [3]. Neutral Interest Rate and Policy Adjustment - Morgan Stanley's forecast of a final interest rate midpoint of 2.5%-2.75% suggests that the U.S. neutral interest rate has not been permanently elevated due to temporary factors such as the pandemic or geopolitical issues. If this assessment holds, the Fed will need to gradually "return to normal" in the coming years, aligning policy rates with inflation targets [3]. Uncertainties and Market Reactions - The proposed path is not without uncertainties, including high U.S. fiscal deficits, ongoing global supply chain restructuring, and potential geopolitical tensions. If inflation becomes sticky in services and wages, or if financial markets react excessively to premature easing, the Fed may have to delay its adjustment pace [4]. - Morgan Stanley's expectations represent a "baseline scenario" rather than a rigid policy blueprint, indicating a shift in market sentiment from "higher for longer" to "lower and faster," which will directly impact bond markets, the U.S. dollar, and growth assets, becoming a core variable in financial markets over the next two years [4].

Group 1 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ramsden, views the relaxation of the labor market as a driving force for "inflation easing" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices due to the conflict between Israel and Iran will not alter the inflation outlook for the Eurozone, according to the European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Guindos stated that while rising oil prices are a concern, they appear to be under control, and the process of inflation decline is firmly anchored [1] - The growth rate of consumer prices has decreased from record highs to slightly below the ECB's target of 2% [1] - Officials are satisfied with the current trajectory of consumer prices, indicating a potential continuation of achieving the inflation target in the coming months [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The situation in Iran adds complexity to an already tense global trade environment, which could impact economic stability [1] - Guindos emphasized the need for caution due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding these geopolitical issues [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, indicates that the economic fundamentals are weak, the labor market is loosening further, and the process of inflation decline is ongoing [1] Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as weak, suggesting potential challenges for growth and investment opportunities in the near term [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing further loosening, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Inflation Trends - The process of inflation decline is still in progress, indicating that inflationary pressures may be easing, which could influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish Central Bank indicates that inflation expectations and pricing behaviors continue to pose risks to the process of inflation decline [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank highlights that persistent inflation expectations are a significant concern for achieving lower inflation rates [1] - Pricing behaviors in the market are also identified as a factor that could hinder the progress of inflation reduction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]

Group 1 - Oracle's stock surged over 13%, reaching a record closing high, driven by strong performance outlook and robust demand for AI-related cloud services [1] - Boeing's stock fell nearly 5% following the crash of an Indian Airlines Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner shortly after takeoff, with 242 people on board [2] - The S&P 500 index reached a new closing high since late February, with eight out of eleven sectors rising, led by utilities and information technology [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for May rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, indicating a modest increase in wholesale profit margins [2] - Market expectations for continued inflation decline are rising, contributing to gains in interest rate-sensitive sectors and increasing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3] - Gold prices increased by over 1.7%, reaching a one-week high, while oil prices experienced a slight decline [3]

6月中旬，美国通胀数据意外走低，引发市场对美联储年内提前降息的强烈预期，美元汇率随即承压下 行。周三，美元兑主要货币普遍下跌，反映出投资者对美联储政策路径重新评估后的集体反应。 策略师EliasHaddad指出，"美国通胀动能减弱，这迫使市场重新考虑利率走向。"他还提到，在当前平均 关税由2%升至15%以上的背景下，物价压力仍未明显加剧，这反而凸显了需求侧的疲软，使降息的可 能性进一步增强。 贸易谈判的积极信号一度支撑美元，但未能扭转整体弱势趋势。若相关谈判能带来对外贸易壁垒的实质 性放松，或将增强美元中期韧性，但当前市场仍以短期货币政策逻辑主导汇率波动。 从技术角度看，欧元和英镑兑美元双双突破近期整理区间，显示市场情绪偏向继续做空美元。若美联储 在未来两次会议中释放鸽派信号，美元可能面临进一步调整空间。 纽约午后，美元兑日元下跌0.2%，至144.58；欧元兑美元上涨0.5%，至1.1484，盘中一度因贸易谈判消 息涨幅收窄；英镑兑美元上涨0.3%，报1.3542；瑞郎兑美元亦上扬0.3%，至0.8205。 数据驱动的预期重定价是此次美元走弱的核心因素。美国5月CPI环比仅上升0.1%，远低于经济学家普 遍 ...