Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures, as the current domestic situation shows strong supply and weak demand, but from a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and upstream profits are also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high; from a driving perspective, there are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: supply - side has an expectation of old - device renovation (about 20% of urea devices are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side has an expectation of improved exports (optimistic about urea exports from September to October considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations). Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - On September 3, UR01 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 1.83% from September 2; UR05 closed at 1757 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.68%; UR09 closed at 1658 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 1.13% [1] Spot Prices - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 30 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to - 43 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on September 3 compared with September 2 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or 0.19% to 5166 yuan/ton, while that in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1752 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1710 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 232,728 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend focusing on the opportunity to buy low on the 01 contract of urea futures, as the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the valuation of urea is not high. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: one is the expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply - side, and the other is the expectation of improved exports on the demand - side [1] Summary According to Relevant Data Urea Futures Prices - On September 1st, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1743 yuan/ton, 1784 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), -7 yuan/ton (-0.39%), and -9 yuan/ton (-0.54%) compared to August 29th [1] Domestic Spot Prices - On September 1st, the spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, 1720 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -20 yuan/ton, -10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and -20 yuan/ton compared to August 29th [1] Basis and Spread - On September 1st, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was -84 yuan/ton, a change of -13 yuan/ton compared to August 29th; the spread of 01 - 05 was -41 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively; the downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1742 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1726 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1743 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 220274 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If geopolitical premiums reopen, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for unilateral trading, and pay attention to positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads after the improvement of supply and demand [5] - For urea, it is suggested to pay attention to going long at low prices as the price downside is limited [7] - For rubber, a medium - term bullish view is maintained. In the short - term, a neutral - to - bullish approach is appropriate, buying on dips with quick entry and exit. Partially close the position of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 [15] - For PVC, given the situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17] - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long - term. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [20] - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate upwards in the long - term [22] - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [23] - For PX, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the crude oil at low prices during the peak season [27] - For PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of going long following the PX at low prices after the improvement of downstream performance during the peak season [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium - term [29] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.87%, to $63.86; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.55, or 0.82%, to $67.8; INE main crude oil futures fell 16.40 yuan, or 3.36%, to 472.4 yuan [2] - US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; SPR increased by 0.78 million barrels to 404.20 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.24 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, a 0.55% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 1.79 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels, a 1.54% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.32 million barrels to 20.13 million barrels, a 1.60% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.59 million barrels, a 0.68% increase [2] Methanol - On August 27, the 01 contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton with a basis of - 122. Coal prices continued to rise, costs increased, but enterprise profits were still good. Domestic production started to pick up, and supply increased marginally. Overseas plant operations returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will increase rapidly. The port MTO plant shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. The futures market shows signs of stabilization, but port inventories are still rising rapidly [5] Urea - On August 27, the 01 contract remained stable at 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable with a basis of - 47. Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level, so supply pressure still exists. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer and melamine decreased, and agricultural demand entered the off - season, resulting in weak domestic demand. Exports are advancing, and port inventories are rising again. The main demand variable is exports [7] Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and consolidated. Bulls are optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the possibility that supply benefits may be less than expected. The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased. As of August 21, 2025, the start - up load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.217 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period. As of August 24, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 477,000 (- 84,000) tons [10][11][12][13] PVC - The PVC01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4949 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 50) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 239 (0) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 147 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, and the overall start - up rate of PVC was 77.6%, a 2.7% decrease. The downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a 0.1% decrease. Factory inventories were 306,000 tons (- 21,000), and social inventories were 853,000 tons (+ 41,000). The comprehensive enterprise profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Downstream domestic start - up is at a five - year low, and export expectations are weak after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. The cost side has weak support [17] Benzene - Ethylene - The spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene fell, and the basis weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index pulled back, and the futures price followed. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair potential. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate oscillated moderately, and the supply was still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate continued to rise. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall start - up rate of three S oscillated and increased [19][20] Polyolefins Polyethylene - The futures price of polyethylene fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side provides support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The overall inventory is being destocked from a high level, which will support the price. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the raw material procurement for agricultural films has started. The overall start - up rate has stabilized at a low - level oscillation [22] Polypropylene - The futures price of polypropylene fell. The integrated plant of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical was put into operation, and the propylene supply has returned marginally. The downstream start - up rate oscillated at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but there is high inventory pressure under the background of weak supply and demand, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [23] PX & PTA & MEG PX - The PX11 contract fell 54 yuan to 6940 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 10 dollars to 854 dollars. The PX load in China was 84.6%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 76.3%, a 2.2% increase. Some overseas plants restarted. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some domestic PTA plants had changes such as load reduction, restart, and new production. The PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. However, due to the new PTA plant put into operation, PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and the valuation has support at the bottom [25] PTA - The PTA01 contract fell 46 yuan to 4824 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 35 yuan/ton to 4835 yuan. The PTA load was 72.9%, a 3.5% decrease. Some plants had load changes. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on August 22 was 2.2 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 24 yuan to 243 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 9 yuan to 324 yuan. The supply - side unexpected maintenance increased in August, changing the inventory accumulation pattern to destocking, and the PTA processing fee is expected to continue to repair [28] Ethylene Glycol - The EG01 contract fell 9 yuan to 4481 yuan, and the East China spot price remained unchanged at 4553 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.2%, a 6.2% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants had start - up or load - change operations. The downstream load was 90%, a 0.6% increase. Terminal load also increased. The import arrival forecast was 54,000 tons, and the East China departure on August 26 was 12,000 tons. The port inventory was 500,000 tons, a 47,000 - ton decrease. The cost - side ethylene price rose, and the coal price fell. The industry fundamentals show that overseas and domestic maintenance plants are starting up, and downstream start - up is recovering from the off - season, but the supply is still in excess. The port inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle in the medium - term, and the valuation is relatively high year - on - year, with downward pressure in the medium - term [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant resistance level at 3375 and potential support levels at 3345 and 3330, indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term [1][5][9]. Price Movements - Gold prices reached a high of 3368 before retreating to 3348, with the 3345-30 range identified as a critical support area [3]. - The current price action shows gold testing the 3375 resistance multiple times without sustaining above it, suggesting a potential for further declines [5][9]. Trading Strategy - The article advises against entering long positions at this moment, suggesting that traders should wait for clearer signals before making any moves, particularly around the 3330 support level [5][9]. - It emphasizes the importance of not chasing trades without a clear strategy, as this could lead to unfavorable outcomes [3][5]. Market Sentiment - The sentiment in the market is described as cautious, with traders advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy rather than chasing upward movements [6]. - The article notes that the gold market is currently experiencing a shift in capital towards silver and other products, which may be affecting gold's performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. The reasons are that the absolute price is at a low level, there is demand expectation during the peak season, and the inventory reduction pressure on the upstream is not significant [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 closed at 1738 yuan/ton on April 15, down 22 yuan or 1.25% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1816 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.77%; UR09 closed at 1767 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or 1.23% [1]. - Domestic spot prices in various regions showed different changes. For example, in Shandong, the price was 1900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.53%; in Shanxi, it was 1770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 1.13% [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively; the compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan were stable at 3000 yuan/ton and 2580 yuan/ton [1]. - The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5650 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu, it dropped 100 yuan or 1.72% to 5700 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2505 was 1819 yuan/ton, the highest was 1832 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1801 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1802 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1816 yuan/ton. The position was 106857 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated weakly and closed at 1802. The recent weakening of the market was partly affected by the rumor that the Indian tender was lower than expected. However, the domestic urea export has not been liberalized, and the domestic demand situation has a greater impact on prices. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [1].