Market Overview - Dow futures decreased by 0.25%, S&P 500 futures increased by 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.40% [1] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed a pre-market rally with Alibaba up by 1.69%, Pinduoduo up by 0.72%, JD.com up by 0.46%, Baidu up by 1.26%, and Bilibili up by 0.66% [2] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices reached $4020 per ounce, marking a 1.71% increase for the day [3] Company Earnings and Stock Movements - GlaxoSmithKline reported a turnaround in Q3, posting a profit of £2.01 billion compared to a loss of £58 million in the same period last year, leading to a pre-market increase of 3.36% in its stock [4] - Nvidia's stock rose over 3%, with a potential market capitalization of $5 trillion if the current level is maintained, following a broad discussion by CEO Jensen Huang on AI and other advanced technologies during the GTC conference [4] - Bloom Energy's stock surged over 17% after reporting a 57.1% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $519 million, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of record revenue [4] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies raised the target price for Coinbase from $375 to $384 [7] Federal Reserve Meeting Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% during the upcoming FOMC meeting [8] - Analysts noted increasing policy divergence within the FOMC, contrasting with the consensus seen in the previous meeting [8] - There are indications that the market is preparing for the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening policy, as evidenced by a significant trade involving 40,000 contracts betting on a minimal increase in the SOFR above the expected federal funds rate [8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting on October 30, with a probability of 94.1% due to a slowing job market and mild inflation impact from tariffs [1] - Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing data-driven decisions rather than a predetermined path, indicating a divergence between market expectations and the Fed's approach [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. economy showed signs of complexity, with a GDP contraction of 0.6% in Q1, marking the first negative growth in three years, followed by a strong Q2 growth revision to 3.8% [2] - Economic pressures from tariff policies and weak consumer and investment confidence have led to signs of economic fatigue in the latter half of the year [2] - The labor market reflects a "low hiring, low firing" state, indicating ongoing concerns about the economic outlook [2] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the global central bank meeting highlighted reduced inflation risks but increased employment risks, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate path is heightened by the upcoming leadership changes within the Fed, with potential impacts from political interventions [3] Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The potential resumption of rate cuts by the Fed could create a more accommodative external environment for non-U.S. economies [4] - Increased market flexibility in the RMB exchange rate has provided China with more autonomy in its monetary policy [4] - Chinese investors need to be vigilant about market volatility risks stemming from the Fed's rate cut cycle and the associated economic and policy fluctuations in the U.S. [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the escalation of Sino-US trade tensions, leading to increased macroeconomic uncertainty and commodity price volatility [1][14] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed may soon end its balance sheet reduction efforts, with signs of a weakening labor market emerging [2][16] - China's core CPI continued to rise, while PPI's decline narrowed, indicating a mixed economic outlook [3][17] - Freeport Indonesia may suspend operations at its copper smelter due to supply disruptions from a mudslide at the Grasberg mine, impacting Indonesia's copper smelting capacity and export plans [4][18] Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a weekly decline of 3.07%, ranking 20th among 33 sectors [9] - Key individual stock performances included significant gains for Xilai Fu (+49.84%) and Baiyin Youse (+28.54%), while Tengyuan Cobalt (-13.83%) and Bowei Alloy (-13.34%) faced notable declines [9][13] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to ongoing supply disruptions and potential acceleration in smelting processes [19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, reached historical highs amid renewed trade tensions [32] - Energy metals, particularly cobalt, may face supply shortages due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [35][36] - Strategic metals, especially rare earths, are benefiting from strengthened export controls, with a focus on mid-heavy rare earths [41] Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies with integrated operations like China Hongqiao are recommended, alongside others like Tianshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial [51] - In precious metals, gold remains a key asset for long-term allocation, with stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold suggested for attention [51] - Strategic and minor metals are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with a focus on cobalt, antimony, and tungsten sectors [52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, with high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut and relatively stable fundamentals lead to a weak oscillation trend for the nickel futures contract [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to inventory accumulation, weakening material cost support, and lower - than - expected demand, stainless - steel prices are also projected to stay in a low - level oscillation [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 121,180 yuan/ton, a 0.08% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 83,761 (-26,323) lots, and the open interest was 68,681 (-4,426) lots. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut led to a weak oscillation trend under stable fundamentals [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. Sea freight declined due to reduced shipping demand. The 1.4% nickel ore tender of the Eramen mine in Zambales, Philippines, was settled at FOB 43.5. Downstream iron plants were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, while some northern Chinese factories started "winter storage". The Indonesian nickel ore market had a continuous supply - surplus pattern, and the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 dollars [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market selling price was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was cold, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 26,558 (+1,531) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 246,756 (+3,498) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2512 opened at 12,565 yuan/ton and closed at 12,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 113,216 (-37,540) lots, and the open interest was 193,490 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a weak - oscillation trend, and price decline was due to the game between cost support and weak demand [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained cautious, and spot trading was light with stable spot premiums. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 455 - 755 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The recommended single - side strategy for stainless steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's grasp on economic conditions, the employment and inflation outlook in the U.S. appears largely unchanged, which has shifted market expectations regarding Fed policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - Powell emphasized that the Fed's interest rate policy does not follow a risk-free path and will be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis, balancing employment and inflation targets [2]. - The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last month, marking the first rate cut in 2025, with officials projecting two more cuts this year [2]. - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in October approached nearly 100% [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Powell stated that the Fed has alternative data sources to monitor the U.S. economy due to the government shutdown, noting that employment growth has significantly slowed while inflation remains slightly elevated [3]. - The Fed's assessment indicates that economic activity may be more robust than expected, but the lack of official data could pose challenges if the shutdown continues [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices rebounded, with the Dow erasing a decline of approximately 600 points, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut in October [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed a strong market consensus for a rate cut, confirming Powell's influence on market sentiment [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's dovish signals on the financial markets, particularly focusing on the implications for gold and silver prices amid ongoing economic uncertainties and trade tensions. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the end of the month according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Powell's comments highlighted concerns about the labor market and inflation, which have contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.03% and the 30-year yield reaching a new low of 4.59% [1][3] - The dovish stance of the Fed is seen as supportive for gold prices, as low inflation and low yield environments create favorable conditions for precious metals [3] Group 2: Economic Uncertainties and Government Shutdown - The U.S. government has been in shutdown for 14 days, with a failure to pass a temporary funding bill, increasing economic uncertainty [3][4] - The shutdown has led to the layoff of over 4,100 federal employees, although this number is lower than initial estimates, indicating a less severe impact than anticipated [4] - The ongoing government shutdown and lack of economic data are contributing to market volatility and risk aversion, further influencing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3][4] Group 3: Trade Tensions and Currency Movements - Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China have negatively impacted market sentiment, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [5] - The imposition of reciprocal port fees has exacerbated risk aversion, causing funds to flow from equities to bonds as investors seek safety [1][5] - The weakening dollar is expected to diminish its attractiveness, potentially boosting the relative value of gold [3][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Current spot prices for gold are around $4,185 per ounce, while silver is priced at $52.18 per ounce, reflecting the ongoing volatility in the precious metals market [5] - The silver market is currently experiencing a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [9]

周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元延续下滑跌破99关口，最新美元指数报98.933，跌幅0.11%，周二 （10月14日）晚间美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔释放信号称，10月降息仍在考虑之中，量化紧缩政策也可 能接近尾声，美元随后震荡走软，美元指数险守99关口上方，最终收跌0.21%，报99.05。 美国政府停摆导致美联储制定货币政策所依赖的关键经济数据中断发布，这也意味着市场失去了预判美 联储动向的常规工具。在市场普遍认为"无数据即无政策行动"的预期下——至少对美联储即将召开的会 议如此，这种不确定性反而助推美元走强。 美元指数技术分析 从技术上来看，美指周二上涨在99.50之下遇阻，下跌在98.95之上受到支持，意味着美元短线上涨后有 可能保持下跌的走势。如果美指今天上涨在99.35之下遇阻，后市下跌的目标将会指向98.85--98.70之 间。今天美元走势短线阻力在99.30--99.35，短线重要阻力在99.60--99.65。今天美指短线支持在98.85- -98.90，短线重要支持在98.70--98.75。 鲍威尔指出停摆前数据显示经济增长可能超预期，但他同时强调"美国就业市场下行风险已有所加剧"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech indicates a strong possibility of a rate cut in October, highlighting significant downward risks in the U.S. labor market and suggesting a potential end to the quantitative tightening policy [1][2]. Group 1: Powell's Speech Insights - Powell emphasized that the U.S. labor market shows considerable weakness, with both supply and demand for labor declining significantly [2]. - He warned that delaying action could increase the risks associated with loosening monetary policy [2]. - Powell hinted at the potential cessation of the quantitative tightening policy, as initial signs of tightening in financial markets have emerged [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations - JPMorgan's report stated that Powell's comments have solidified market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 28-29 [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has reached 97.3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [3]. - Peter Cardillo from Spartan Capital Securities noted that while Powell acknowledges a robust economic foundation, he also recognizes existing issues, preparing the market for a series of rate cuts without implying they are guaranteed [3].

5 新修订的《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》 10月15日将正式施行 2025年10月15日 星期三 1 中国9月CPI、PPI数据将公布 2 欧元区8月工业产出数据公布 (3)美国10月纽约联储制造业指数公布 4 第138届广交会将于10月15日开幕 1 李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强10月14日下午主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会，听取对当前经济形势和下一步经济工作的意见建议。李强强 调，要加力提效实施逆周期调节，用足用好政策资源，以改革办法打通堵点卡点。要持续用力扩大内需、做强国内大循环，不断形成扩内需的新增长点。要 多措并举营造一流产业生态，综合治理行业无序、非理性竞争，着力构建创新生态圈。李强希望广大企业家持续开拓创新，为我国高质量发展多作贡献。希 望专家学者发挥专业优势，为做好经济工作和推动"十五五"发展积极建言献策。（央视新闻） 2 隔夜市场 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.44%，纳指跌0.76%，标普500指数跌0.16%，大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌超4%，博通跌超3%，特斯拉、亚马逊 跌超1%；半导体、加密储备概念股跌幅居前，英特尔跌超4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, may soon conclude its long-standing efforts to reduce its balance sheet, known as quantitative tightening, to ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - Powell indicated that the Fed is closely monitoring various indicators to determine if the goal of maintaining liquidity has been achieved [1] - Signs of tightening liquidity conditions have begun to emerge, including a general tightening of repo rates and noticeable but temporary liquidity pressures on specific dates [1] - The experience since 2020 suggests that the Fed can use its balance sheet more flexibly in the future [1]