Core Insights - Domestic steel prices have decreased during the week of June 16-20, with both long and flat steel price indices showing declines, where the drop in long steel prices was less than that of flat steel prices [1] Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the week was 90.09 points, down 0.40 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.44%. Compared to the end of last month, it fell by 0.71 points (0.78% decrease), and from the end of last year, it decreased by 7.38 points (7.57% decrease). Year-on-year, it dropped by 14.14 points (13.57% decrease) [1] - The long steel price index was 92 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.39 points (0.42% decrease), a drop of 0.30 points (0.33% decrease) from the end of last month, and a decline of 8.22 points (8.20% decrease) from the end of last year. Year-on-year, it fell by 14.92 points (13.95% decrease) [1] - The flat steel price index was 88.25 points, down 0.45 points week-on-week (0.51% decrease), down 0.94 points (1.05% decrease) from the end of last month, and down 7.30 points (7.64% decrease) from the end of last year. Year-on-year, it decreased by 14.06 points (13.74% decrease) [1] Regional Price Index Summary - All six major regions in China saw a week-on-week decline in steel price indices, with the Northwest region experiencing the largest drop and the Southwest region the smallest. For instance, the North China steel price index was 88.99 points, down 0.44 points (0.49% decrease) week-on-week [2] - The Northeast region's steel price index was 88.77 points, down 0.40 points (0.45% decrease) week-on-week. The East China index was 90.59 points, down 0.43 points (0.47% decrease) week-on-week [2] - The Central South region's index was 91.90 points, down 0.43 points (0.46% decrease) week-on-week, while the Southwest region's index was 90.88 points, down 0.30 points (0.33% decrease) week-on-week. The Northwest region's index was 90.67 points, down 0.59 points (0.65% decrease) week-on-week [2] Price Changes by Product - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of last month, with the largest drop in cold-rolled sheets and the smallest in rebar. For example, the price of 6mm high wire was 3267 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton (0.24% decrease) [3] - The price of 16mm rebar was 3076 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton (0.19% decrease). The price of 20mm medium-thick plates was 3417 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton (0.73% decrease) [3] - The price of 1mm cold-rolled sheets was 3745 CNY/ton, down 71 CNY/ton (1.86% decrease), while the price of 1mm galvanized sheets was 4146 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton (0.69% decrease) [3] Cost Analysis - In May, the average import price of iron ore was 96.24 USD/ton, down 1.86 USD/ton (1.90% decrease) month-on-month. Compared to the end of last year, it decreased by 1.49 USD/ton (1.52% decrease) [4] - The domestic iron concentrate price was 857 CNY/ton, down 31 CNY/ton (3.49% decrease) from the end of last month. The price of coking coal was 1196 CNY/ton, down 82 CNY/ton (6.42% decrease) [4] - The price of coke was 1216 CNY/ton, down 90 CNY/ton (6.89% decrease), while scrap steel was priced at 2338 CNY/ton, down 14 CNY/ton (0.60% decrease) [4] International Market Overview - In May, the CRU international steel price index was 195.1 points, down 4.5 points (2.3% decrease) month-on-month. Compared to the end of last year, it increased by 14.5 points (8.0% increase) [5] - The CRU long steel price index was 195.6 points, down 1.9 points (1.0% decrease) month-on-month, while the CRU flat steel price index was 194.9 points, down 5.8 points (2.9% decrease) month-on-month [5] - The demand side remains weak due to seasonal effects, indicating that steel prices may continue to experience weak fluctuations in the short term [5]

Group 1 - Report's industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Still treat steel as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [3] Group 3 - From January to May 2025, China exported 471.7 million tons of steel billets, 165.4 million tons of steel bars, and 459.3 million tons of wire rods, with year - on - year increases of 355 million tons, 78 million tons, and 131.6 million tons respectively, a total increase of 565 million tons [2] - On June 23, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The average profit was - 133 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - The Passenger Car Association predicts that the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in June will reach 2 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% and a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. Among them, new energy retail sales are expected to reach 1.1 million, and the penetration rate will rebound to about 55% [2] - The prices of finished steel products rose and then fell yesterday, with small cross - star candlesticks for rebar and hot - rolled coils, showing little fluctuation. Market drivers are weak, and weak demand still exerts pressure on prices [2] - Later, pay attention to macro policies and downstream demand [3]

Price Trends - The domestic steel price index experienced a slight increase during the week of June 9 to June 13, with the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) at 90.50 points, up 0.19 points or 0.21% week-on-week [1] - The long product price index rose to 92.39 points, increasing by 0.40 points or 0.44% week-on-week, while the flat product price index reached 88.70 points, up 0.11 points or 0.13% week-on-week [1] Regional Analysis - Steel price indices increased in all regions except for the Northwest, with the Southwest region showing the largest increase of 0.33 points or 0.37% [2] - The North China region's steel price index was 89.43 points, up 0.18 points or 0.20% week-on-week, while the Northeast region's index was 89.17 points, up 0.24 points or 0.27% [2] Product-Specific Price Changes - Prices for high-strength wire and rebar increased, while other product prices declined compared to the end of the previous month [3] - The price of 6mm high-strength wire was 3282 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton or 0.21%, and 16mm rebar was priced at 3088 CNY/ton, up 6 CNY/ton or 0.19% [3] Cost Factors - The average import price of iron ore in April was 98.10 USD/ton, down 0.40 USD/ton or 0.41% month-on-month [4] - Domestic iron concentrate prices were 863 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton or 2.82% from the end of the previous month [4] International Market Overview - In May, the CRU international steel price index was 195.1 points, down 4.5 points or 2.3% month-on-month [5] - The North American steel price index was 245 points, down 11.4 points or 4.4% month-on-month, while the European index was 223 points, down 0.2 points or 0.1% [5] Market Conditions - The overall demand for steel remains low due to high temperatures and rainy weather, while steel production has slightly increased [6] - Both steel mill inventories and social inventories have decreased, indicating a potential for price stabilization in the short term [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The blast furnace has resumed production, and overall steel production has increased. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has risen due to overseas export resilience, while that of rebar has slightly declined. Steel inventories are still being depleted, but the depletion rate of rebar has slowed down. - As the off - season for demand approaches, the apparent demand is expected to continue to weaken. The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, leading to a further weakening of building material demand, while the high - frequency data of steel exports have rebounded. - Although the blast furnace output has reached its peak, the blast furnace profit is relatively high, and some blast furnaces may resume production according to the production schedule. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved recently, with a short - term small - scale rebound. - After entering the off - season for demand, contradictions will accumulate, and there is a risk of triggering a negative feedback. Recently, due to the outbreak of overseas geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have generally risen, causing coking coal and coke to continue to rebound. Currently, the market is still trading on the logic of profit contraction, so steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices is downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - **Data Summary** - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons (+46,100 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons (+8,000 tons). The daily average of hot metal from 247 blast furnaces was 2.4218 million tons (+5,700 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 31.073 yuan/ton. The cost of electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours was about 3,396 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 303.18 yuan/ton; during off - peak hours, the cost was about 3,231 yuan/ton (converted to the theoretical price), and the profit of third - tier rebar in East China during off - peak hours was - 138 yuan/ton. The overall steel supply is relatively high [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar this week was 2.1919 million tons (-7,800 tons), and that for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (+108,100 tons). The apparent demand for steel has rebounded. Recently, the availability of funds for downstream housing construction projects has declined, but steel exports have remained highly resilient, leading to an expansion of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. From January to May, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In May, the sales, new construction, and completion areas of housing were all in negative growth, and the decline rate widened. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3%. The official manufacturing PMI expanded, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI contracted. In May, China's automobile production increased by 11.67% year - on - year, and exports increased by 22.14% year - on - year. The production growth rate of household appliances slowed down in April, while the production schedule of the three major white goods in June increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The Markit manufacturing PMI data in the US in May was 52.3, a new high since February. The new order index reached a new high since February 2024. The initial jobless claims increased last week. The preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, higher than market expectations, a new high in 33 months but still below the break - even line [4]. - **Inventory**: For rebar, the mill inventory decreased by 5,700 tons, the social inventory decreased by 64,400 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 70,100 tons. For hot - rolled coils, the mill inventory decreased by 100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 52,300 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 52,400 tons. The mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 143,700 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 155,700 tons [4]. - **Outlook and Trading Strategies** - **Outlook**: With the arrival of the off - season for demand, the apparent demand will continue to weaken. There is a risk of negative feedback after entering the off - season. Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is downward [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - sided**: Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal, and to intervene in the 10 - 01 reverse spread on rallies. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,090 yuan (+10 yuan), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan (+20 yuan), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,110 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - **Profit Situations** - **Long - process Steel Mills**: The cash profit of East China rebar and Tangshan rebar, as well as the cash profit of Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coils, are presented in the report, but specific values are not summarized in text. - **Short - process Steel Mills**: The profit of East China electric arc furnaces during peak hours was - 340.47 yuan (-44.9 yuan), and that during off - peak hours was - 175 yuan (-45 yuan) [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - **Domestic Macroeconomic Data** - In May, China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. - In May, the new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate increased. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan. Resident loans increased year - on - year, while enterprise loans still declined year - on - year, but the month - on - month data showed some improvement. The increase in social financing in May mainly came from government bond issuance, and the increase in loans to the real economy hit a new low in recent years. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +3.7%, with the growth rate decreasing month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development was - 10.7%, that in manufacturing was +8.5%, and that in infrastructure construction was +10.42%. The growth rates of all three types of investment decreased month - on - month [45]. - **International Macroeconomic Data** - In the US in May, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, the monthly rate was 0.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, and the monthly rate was 0.1%. - The US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances starting from June 23 [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - **Supply** - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric arc furnaces was 31.7% (-0.3%). - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons. The small - sample production of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [65][69]. - **Demand** - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 7%), a month - on - month decrease of 7,800 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 2.43%), a month - on - month increase of 108,100 tons. - The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, and the demand for building materials has weakened. The export of steel still shows strong resilience, but the export orders of the manufacturing industry may decline starting from July. The subsequent production schedules of the automobile and household appliance industries will decrease, putting pressure on steel demand [72]. - **Inventory** - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are still being depleted. The total rebar inventory decreased by 70,100 tons, and the total hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 52,400 tons [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Current steel prices are affected by the rebound of coking coal. Steel mills are reducing production, hot-rolled coil inventory is increasing, and apparent demand is declining. Overall demand is expected to remain weak due to off - season demand and tariff - affected exports. Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with attention to short - selling opportunities around 3000 for the October contract of rebar and 3150 for the October contract of hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, demand remained relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. In the future, terminal demand for finished products may weaken, but iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient. Iron ore supply pressure will increase. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the range of 700 - 745 [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot market of coking coal was weak, and the market was still in a state of oversupply. Coke futures also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 6. The supply - demand pattern of coke was still loose in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 2509 contracts of both coking coal and coke and short after the rebound [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand remained relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction began to emerge as supply increased. For ferromanganese, supply increased slightly this week, and supply pressure reappeared under weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see for both, with attention to the price changes of coal [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed small increases. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3100 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar rose from 2952 to 2975 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2880 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions increased, and profits of rebar also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, a decrease of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a decrease of 3.1%; hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, an increase of 2.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.4, an increase of 4.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 to 229.0, a decrease of 7.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased from 122.4 to 63.6, a decrease of 48.0%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, an increase of 17.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8, an increase of 9.8%. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3, a decrease of 3.6% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - For coking coal, the price of the 09 contract rose by 22 to 779, an increase of 2.8%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 20 to 793, an increase of 2.5%. For coke, the price of the 09 contract rose by 15 to 1357, an increase of 0.6%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 10 to 1368, an increase of 0.7% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of coke decreased slightly, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke in all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, an increase of 14.04%, and the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 92 to 5104, a decrease of 1.8%, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 56 to 5538, an increase of 1.0% [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5631.0. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to - 329.0, a decrease of 17.9% [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 1.2 to 9.7, an increase of 14.6%. The weekly output of ferromanganese increased slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 68.7, a decrease of 9.8%, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 to 18.7, an increase of 0.34% [7].

钢材周度供需数据解读 2025/5/30 研究员: 余典 从业资相号 F03122524 投资咨询号 Z0019832 陶存辉 从业资格号 F03099559 投资资询号 Z0020955 张磊 从业资格号 F03106996 投资咨询号 Z0021-118 薛磊 从业资格号 F03100815 投资咨询号 Z0021807 冉宇蒙 从业资格号 F03144159 投资咨询号 Z0022199 需求略有回暖,预期仍偏悲观 需求:螺纹表需248.68万吨（+1.55）,同比-0.49%;热卷表需326.93万吨（+13.87）,同比3.27%;五大材表需 913.79 万吨（+9.23）,同比1.02%。 供给:螺纹产量225.51万吨（-5.97）,同比-2.58%;热卷产量319.55万吨（+13.87）,同比4.54%;五大材产量880.85万吨（+8.41）,同比-0.96%。 库存: 螺纹库存581.05万吨（-23.17）,同比-3.83%; 热卷库存332.81万吨（-7.38）,同比-2.17%;五大材库存1365.6万吨（-32.94）,同比-2.36%。 -2025 - 2024 - 202 ...