Group 1 - The report indicates that the "Shenwan Hongyuan Gold Stock Portfolio" reflects the market outlook and style judgment for the upcoming month, showcasing the research team's capabilities and competitiveness in the market [1][11] - The previous portfolio showed a slight increase of 0.14% from December 1 to December 31, 2025, with the A-share portfolio averaging a 0.80% increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index rose by 2.06% and 2.28%, respectively [6][15] - Since the first release of the gold stock portfolio on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 401.73%, with the A-share portfolio up by 293.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 271.65 and 260.01 percentage points, respectively [6][15] Group 2 - The strategy judgment for the current period maintains that the conditions supporting the spring market remain unchanged, with liquidity in the stock market being loose and upcoming events likely to boost risk appetite [14] - The report suggests focusing on cyclical Alpha and thematic rotation opportunities, particularly in basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals, as well as sectors like AI, commercial aerospace, and high-dividend strategies [14] - The top recommended stocks include "Iron Triangle" stocks: Hualu Hengsheng, Lingyi Technology, and CIMC Enric (Hong Kong), along with other stocks such as Xingfa Group, TBEA, Chifeng Gold, WuXi AppTec, China National Glass, Ping An Insurance (Hong Kong), and Alibaba-W (Hong Kong) [6][17][18] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance of the top ten gold stocks, with Hualu Hengsheng benefiting from favorable policies in the domestic chemical industry, and Lingyi Technology experiencing high growth in AI and robotics [17][20] - CIMC Enric is positioned to benefit from the shipbuilding cycle and clean energy equipment orders, while Xingfa Group has a solid base in phosphate and specialty chemicals [18][20] - Other notable stocks include WuXi AppTec, which is seeing strong global demand in the CXO industry, and Alibaba-W, which is accelerating its integration from data centers to application layers in AI [18][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share profit structure in 2025 will feature a "technology + overseas expansion" dual mainline characteristic, with traditional industries recovering from real estate drag and high-end manufacturing and export becoming new growth points [1] - The technology sector (such as AI hardware and communication equipment) and cyclical sectors (global pricing resource products) are expected to become the next main lines in the market [1] - The CSI A500 index, as a broad-based index, is likely to benefit from the Davis double-click opportunity brought by the transformation of new and old driving forces under the backdrop of profit recovery and industrial upgrading [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 ETF (159338) tracks the CSI A500 index (000510), which selects samples from industry leaders in the A-share market using an industry-balanced selection method, reflecting both market capitalization representation and balanced industry distribution [1] - The index components embody the characteristics of "new productive forces" and reflect the overall performance of core A-share assets through a dual allocation of value and growth styles [1] - According to the 2025 mid-year report, the total number of accounts for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF ranks first among similar products, being more than three times that of the second place, indicating a strong preference among investors for this ETF [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and performance of Li Bei in the private equity sector. The discussion revolves around the risks in current asset allocation strategies and the potential for investment opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Li Bei identifies significant risks in mainstream asset allocation, which is heavily concentrated in four strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets. Each of these strategies carries distinct risks, such as the impact of small-cap factors and the potential fallout from the AI bubble in the U.S. [2] - The current valuations of these strategies are considered high, and the crowded positions pose substantial risks, particularly if economic conditions shift [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%. Approximately 80% of the holdings exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [3][4]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Li Bei categorizes the future economic scenario into two possibilities: a reversal of deflation, which would negatively impact the mainstream strategies but benefit Hanxia's investments, and a continuation of deflation, where Hanxia may experience slight losses or gains while mainstream strategies continue to rise [6][10]. - The article notes that the current market's asset concentration poses a significant risk, as evidenced by past instances of severe sell-offs in crowded trades, such as in the renewable energy sector [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The future market dynamics may not simply be a binary outcome of either technology growth or cyclical recovery. If AI technology continues to evolve and applications expand, the tech market may persist, while cyclical sectors could also gain recognition if their fundamentals improve [8]. - The article emphasizes that even in a recovering economic environment, both cyclical and tech sectors could thrive simultaneously, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [8][10]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - Li Bei's investment philosophy suggests that diversifying into Hanxia's products, which are inversely correlated with mainstream assets, can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility. The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of Hanxia's holdings provide strong downside protection in volatile markets [9]. - However, this strategy relies heavily on accurate macroeconomic predictions, and if deflation persists longer than expected, the appeal of these cyclical assets may diminish for short-term investors [10].

Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both declining over 1%, while the North Stock 50 Index surged over 6% at one point [1] - By the end of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7% to 3873.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.27%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.41%, and the North Stock 50 Index rose by 3.84% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North Stock markets reached 188.55 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as real estate, retail, textiles and apparel, food and beverage, and liquor saw declines, while new stocks, controllable nuclear fusion, commercial aerospace, and ultra-high voltage concepts were active [1] Policy Outlook - Dongguan Securities indicated that as the 14th Five-Year Plan begins, the transition from old to new growth drivers is entering a critical phase, with strong demands for transformation and growth expected to continue into next year [1] - The need for policies to balance short-term and long-term goals is emphasized, with a focus on preparing for future risks and challenges [1] - The return to a cross-cycle policy perspective suggests a greater emphasis on long-term policy views, with specific measures to be closely monitored in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [1] - In terms of investment strategy, the end of the year and the beginning of the new year typically favor financial and value styles, which also have protective attributes; attention should also be given to cyclical sectors and specific technology subfields that may benefit from the Central Economic Work Conference [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is entering a window period of upward resonance in policy, liquidity, and fundamentals as December approaches, with previous adjustments effectively releasing some valuation and sentiment risks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The upcoming Political Bureau meeting and Central Economic Work Conference will be crucial in setting the macroeconomic tone for the next year [1][3]. - The external environment is expected to remain relatively stable, and the A-share market has seen risk release after adjustments, indicating a potential for stabilization and rebound [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Focus for 2026 - Key investment directions include new narratives in AI, particularly the practical application of AI, sectors benefiting from the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, resource stocks amid a new round of U.S. dollar easing, and dividend stocks favored by domestic incremental capital [1][3]. - There is also a focus on cyclical sectors that may bottom out due to sustained domestic demand [1][3].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月9日电 新华财经和面包财经研究员梳理公开资料显示，11月，4600余只2025年11月之前成立的主动权益基金（初始基金口径，包括普通股 票型、偏股混合型、灵活配置型、平衡混合型基金）平均收益率为-2.35%，中位数收益率为-2.22%，同期沪深300指数、上证指数收益率分别 为-3.89%、-2.47%。 11月，绩优和绩差产品收益率首尾相差超过20个百分点。共有20余只主动权益基金收益率超过5%，其中华西基金、银河基金等旗下产品收益率相对居前。 同泰基金、富安达基金等旗下20只主动权益基金11月净值下跌超过10%，表现相对落后。 华西基金、银河基金等旗下20余只产品11月净值上涨逾5% 根据不完全统计，2025年11月，共有20余只主动权益基金收益率超过5%，来自华西基金、银河基金、东方阿尔法基金等机构。其中，5只基金11月净值上涨 超过10%。 | | 2025 | | --- | --- | | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | | 019747.OF | 华西优选价值A | | 011629.OF | 银河核心优势A | | 025777.OF | 东方阿尔法瑞享A | | ...

人民财讯12月8日电，长城基金副总经理、投资总监杨建华表示，年末A股存在反弹动力，外围环境预 计相对平和，A股市场调整后风险已得到一定释放，走势有望趋于平稳，目前应该着眼2026年投资机会 的布局，当前关注的方向包括围绕AI等科技赛道新叙事的机会、美国进入降息周期的海外需求板块、 以及新一轮宽松下的资源股，此外，也应关注国内持续拉动内需带来的顺周期板块见底的投资机会。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of consumer sectors, highlighting various sub-sectors such as food and beverage, textiles, home appliances, retail, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, each with specific growth opportunities and market dynamics [5][7][13][16][21]. Summary by Relevant Sections Food and Beverage - Moutai is focusing on high-quality development despite industry pressures, with a positive outlook for structural growth in the food sector [5]. - Companies like Ximai Foods are expanding their product lines and channels, with a strong growth forecast for Q4 [6]. Textiles - The U.S. apparel market is showing growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while wholesale sales have declined [7]. - Low inventory levels in the U.S. suggest a potential inventory replenishment phase starting soon [8]. Home Appliances - The report highlights key catalysts for companies like XGIMI, including supply-side improvements and new product launches expected to drive significant revenue growth [13][14]. Retail - The retail sector is experiencing improvements in same-store sales and profitability, with major chains expanding their store counts significantly [15]. Pharmaceuticals - The small nucleic acid industry is poised for breakthroughs, with a focus on innovative delivery platforms and competitive advantages for Chinese companies [16][17]. Agriculture - The report notes accelerated capacity reduction in the pig farming sector, with a recommendation for quality breeding stocks amid favorable price expectations [21]. - The planting sector is expected to benefit from intensified policy support for food security [21]. Commercial Services - The hospitality sector is seeing a recovery in demand, with improved revenue per available room (RevPAR) and recommendations for leading hotel brands [18].

- The report discusses the macroeconomic recovery in China, highlighting the transition from "weak recovery" to "marginal improvement" as a key phase for economic activity and liquidity structure, which lays the foundation for subsequent profitability recovery and market style shifts towards dividends and low valuation assets [11][16][17] - A macro scoring model is referenced, indicating that the macroeconomic environment has been in a neutral to slightly pessimistic range in 2025, with the latest score (September 2025) being 7, reflecting a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook [13][14] - Dividend strategies (high dividend yield strategies) are emphasized as a classic value investment method, with their core logic analyzed from three dimensions: investor behavior, corporate operating characteristics, and market valuation systems. The dividend yield is identified as the core metric for evaluating dividend strategies [21][23] - The report highlights the strategic allocation value of dividend assets, emphasizing their long-term stable return characteristics and risk diversification functions, making them suitable as a "ballast" in investment portfolios, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [21][23][25] - The report introduces the "stability value + growth premium" logic for the power and power grid sectors, emphasizing their stable cash flow, regulatory framework ("permitted cost + reasonable return"), and policy support for energy transition and power security [26] - The report provides valuation metrics for high dividend yield-related ETF products tracking indices as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, Smart High Dividend Index, CSI Dividend Index, and CSI All Power Index are 8.88, 8.73, 8.29, and 17.60, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 0.85, 1.11, 0.80, and 1.76 [27][30] - The cyclical sector investment direction is analyzed, with key drivers identified as domestic demand policies and global demand recovery. Non-bank financials and consumer sectors benefit from dual drivers, while financial real estate and infrastructure are supported by domestic policies, and materials benefit from global restocking [40][42][47] - Valuation metrics for cyclical-related ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank, Financial Real Estate, 800 Consumer, All Materials, and Infrastructure Engineering indices are 9.44, 9.10, 19.20, 26.90, and 8.51, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.13, 0.86, 4.36, 2.10, and 0.72 [51][55] - The report emphasizes the role of broad-based assets like the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF as core holdings in portfolios, supported by policy efforts to stabilize the market and attract long-term funds, as well as their low historical valuations and high safety margins [64][65][66] - Valuation metrics for broad-based ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices are 11.99 and 14.22, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.30 and 1.48. Both indices are near the 68th percentile of their five-year PB range [69][70][71]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently experiencing adjustments due to the strengthening US dollar index, highlighting the value of high-dividend sectors. High-dividend bank stocks are favored as a safe haven during market volatility, and there is potential for recovery if expansionary policies are introduced in December [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has shown adjustments influenced by the strong US dollar index [1] - Increased risk aversion has led to a preference for high-dividend bank stocks due to their stable characteristics [1] - There is optimism for market stabilization and recovery if expansionary policies are implemented to boost overall demand [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Large-cap blue-chip and financial cyclical stocks are expected to outperform technology stocks during this period [1] - The Red Chip Hong Kong ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 liquid securities with high dividend yields [1] - The index primarily includes stocks from traditional high-dividend sectors such as finance, industrials, and energy, making it suitable for long-term investors seeking stable cash flow [1]