Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting this year where rates were held steady, aligning with market expectations [1] - The Fed's latest statement was perceived as slightly dovish, acknowledging a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and removing previous language that suggested reduced economic uncertainty, indicating greater downside risks to employment goals [1] Group 2 - During the press conference, Fed Chair Powell's tone shifted to a more hawkish stance, emphasizing that tariffs only pose a one-time shock to price levels and that the Fed will ensure tariffs do not trigger inflation [2] - Powell noted that the current labor market is in a state of supply-demand balance with low unemployment rates, suggesting that key indicators should focus on unemployment rather than employment growth, which may slow significantly [2] - The hawkish signals from the press conference surprised the market, leading to a sell-off in short-term government bonds, contradicting expectations that Powell would pave the way for a rate cut in September [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar is experiencing fluctuations near a two-month high, supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts and Japan's central bank raising its inflation forecast while keeping rates unchanged [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish position has strengthened the dollar, with the US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate coming in at 3%, which was better than expected, further boosting the dollar's performance [4] - The market is now focused on the upcoming tariff deadline on August 1, where countries failing to reach a trade agreement with the US will face high tariffs, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1] Group 2 - Other major currencies are under pressure due to the strength of the dollar, with the euro recently rising by 0.1% to 1.1412 USD but having fallen by 3.2% this month [5] - The British pound is hovering near a two-and-a-half-month low, currently at 1.3255 USD, with a monthly decline of approximately 3.5% [5] - The Australian dollar has increased by 0.3% to 0.6454 USD, but has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 2% this month [8]

Core Insights - The Bank of Japan has raised its CPI forecast for 2026, but the increase is moderate, indicating a cautious stance on inflation risks [1] - Despite the current inflation levels justifying a hawkish approach, the Bank of Japan remains vigilant regarding global risks, particularly U.S. tariff policies [1] - There is significant uncertainty in trade negotiations between Japan and the U.S. due to differing interpretations of tariff agreements [1] - Domestic political instability in Japan adds to the uncertainty, allowing the Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda to adopt either a dovish or hawkish stance based on external and internal factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Strong exports from South Korea may support the Bank of Korea's hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting on July 10, as increased fiscal spending could alleviate concerns about economic growth [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Nomura Securities economist Jeong Woo Park suggests that robust exports, particularly in semiconductors, will continue to bolster economic recovery in the second half of the year [1] - South Korea's exports rebounded in June, driven by active semiconductor shipments, despite global trade being hampered by increased tariffs from the U.S. [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Korea is not expected to lower interest rates for the remainder of the year, with a forecasted rate cut of 25 basis points in February 2026 marking the end of the current easing cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is narrowing down candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a potential early announcement before Powell's term ends, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance [1][3]. Candidate Overview - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor and advisor to President Bush, seen as a leading candidate. Warsh has a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation concerns over employment. He has previously discussed the possibility of being nominated by Trump [4][5]. - **Scott Bessent**: The current Treasury Secretary, favored by Wall Street for his capabilities during policy implementation. Although he aims to complete his term, he has expressed interest in potentially becoming Fed Chair [6]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor, considered a dark horse candidate. He has gained attention for advocating immediate interest rate cuts, indicating that the successor issue is influencing Fed policy discussions [7][8][9]. Powell's Position - Jerome Powell has reiterated his commitment to fulfilling his term, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong U.S. economy and controlled inflation. He has declined to comment on successor rumors, asserting that political factors will not influence Fed decisions [10][11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates, contrary to traders' expectations of a hawkish stance [1] - The dot plot indicates a projected reduction of 50 basis points in interest rates by 2025, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated [1] - Prior to the announcement, traders were concerned that the number of rate cuts in 2025 might be reduced by one [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with market participants expecting rates to remain unchanged at a high probability of 98.1% [3] Market Analysis - As of May 7, gold prices have dropped to $3383.57 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.37% from earlier highs [1] - The highest price reached was $3437.49 per ounce, while the lowest was $3359.78 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, has alleviated some market concerns regarding inflationary pressures [3] Trading Strategy - The market anticipates a potential upward movement in gold prices if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, suggesting possible rate cuts [3] - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its current rate, it could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring the price range between $3350 and $3404 for potential high-low trading opportunities, with a focus on support levels at $3350 and $3290 [6]