1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES provides operation ratings for various commodities on January 13, 2026. The ratings are as follows: Threaded steel (★★★), Hot-rolled steel (★★★), Iron ore (★★★), Coke (★☆☆), Coking coal (★☆☆), Silicon manganese (★★☆), Silicon iron (★★☆) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of range-bound oscillation. The demand for downstream industries is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient, but there is still support below [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation still exists. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of increased volatility at high levels [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be in a strong - oscillation state. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level in the off - season, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to buy on dips. The silicon manganese has a structural problem in port inventory, and the silicon iron is affected by relevant policies and has certain demand resilience [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market oscillates. In the off - season, the apparent demand for threaded steel declines, and the inventory accumulates. The demand for hot - rolled steel falls, and the inventory is slowly depleted. The steel mill's profit is marginally repaired, and the blast furnace is gradually restarted. The overall domestic demand is weak, and the export remains high. The market sentiment is cautious, and the range - bound oscillation pattern may continue [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillates. The global shipment decreases seasonally, the domestic arrival volume increases, and the port inventory accumulates. The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the iron - water production is at the bottom, and it is difficult to resume production significantly in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increases, and the winter - storage replenishment expectation exists. The market sentiment is volatile, and the short - term oscillation is expected [3] Coke - The coke price oscillates downward during the day. The transaction price rises sporadically, the coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The inventory hardly changes. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillates downward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1520 vehicles. The coking coal mine output slightly decreases, and the spot auction transaction improves. The total inventory increases significantly. The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream demand is at a low level, and the price is likely to be in a strong - oscillation state [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillates. Driven by the futures rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises. There is a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory. The iron - water production decreases seasonally, the weekly output of silicon manganese slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price oscillates. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market expects a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The iron - water production rebounds, the export demand decreases, and the secondary demand increases marginally. The supply decreases significantly, and the inventory slightly decreases. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Black metals rose strongly, with coking coal hitting the daily limit and steel futures rising 80 - 90 yuan/ton, the largest daily increase since August. Steel continued to cut production and reduce inventory. Rebar maintained a large supply - demand gap and good de - stocking, while hot - rolled coil de - stocking was still slow. Apparent demand declined seasonally, and demand was weak. Production cuts supported steel prices, and raw materials were expected to drive steel prices up within a range. Rebar was expected to fluctuate in the 3000 - 3200 range, and hot - rolled coil in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore main contract rose significantly due to news - driven factors and a strong commodity market influenced by macro news. Spot prices followed the increase. Supply: global iron ore shipments declined this period, and future focus was on Southern Hemisphere weather. Demand: hot metal production increased slightly, and January's hot metal production was expected to rise slightly. The steel mill profit rate improved, and the hot - rolled coil inventory problem improved. Inventory: iron ore inventory was at a high level, while steel mill inventory remained low. Future inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. Iron ore was expected to shift from loose supply - demand to weak supply - demand, and prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in a high - level range, with a short - term reference range of 770 - 840 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures rose strongly. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on January 1st. The coke market was weakly stable. Supply: coke production declined due to pressure on coking profits. Demand: steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal production declined, and steel prices fluctuated at a low level. Inventory: overall inventory increased slightly. Coking coal futures rose strongly, with the main contract hitting the daily limit. Supply: coal mine production increased slightly, but sales were poor, and inventory accumulated. Import coal inventory continued to accumulate, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated downward. Demand: steel mill maintenance decreased, hot metal production was stable with a slight increase, and coking profits declined. Inventory: overall inventory increased slightly. Policy - related information needed verification. For both, unilateral trading was advised to wait for policy verification, and the arbitrage strategy was to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon: The main contract continued to rise, driven by macro news and cost - side coal news. Supply: production increased slightly last week and was expected to continue to grow. Demand: hot metal production was expected to increase slightly in January, and the demand from the metal iron and magnesium industries supported ferrosilicon. Cost: power prices were stable or slightly decreased, and cost differences among regions widened. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the 5600 - 6300 range. Ferromanganese: Prices fluctuated upward, affected by macro news. The news of increased export tariffs on South African manganese ore was false. Supply: production was basically flat, and the reduction amplitude continued to narrow. Demand: hot metal production was expected to increase slightly, supporting ferromanganese demand. Cost: manganese ore prices were stable, providing strong support. The market was in a state of self - supply surplus but overall balance of manganese elements. Prices were expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions all increased. For example, rebar spot prices in East China rose from 3280 to 3320 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract prices rose from 3248 to 3332 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices rose by 50 to 2980 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, such as in East China, where it decreased from - 20 to - 56 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production remained at 226.5 tons. The production of five major steel products increased by 18.4 to 815.2 tons, with a growth rate of 2.3%. Rebar production increased by 3.8 to 188.2 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 11.0 to 304.5 tons [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 25.8 to 1232.2 tons, a decrease of 2.1%. Rebar inventory decreased by 12.2 to 422.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.3 to 371.0 tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 2.9 to 12.5 tons, a growth rate of 29.7%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 7.4 to 841.0 tons, a growth rate of 0.9%. The apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 2.2 to 200.4 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.7 to 310.8 tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increasing by 24.2 to 867.7 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.8%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 to 23.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 14.0 to 11.0 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 155.0 to 2756.4 tons, a growth rate of 6.0%. The global shipment volume decreased by 463.4 to 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 12.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 76.9 to 11054.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal production increased by 0.8 to 227.4 tons, a growth rate of 0.4%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume increased by 10.2 to 325.2 tons, a growth rate of 3.2%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 320.6 to 6234.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 212.6 to 6987.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 41.8 to 15970.89 tons, a growth rate of 0.3%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 86.4 to 8946.5 tons, a growth rate of 1.0%. The 64 - steel - mill inventory available days increased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a growth rate of 5.3% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of the coke 05 contract increased by 118 to 1773 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 7.1%. The coking profit decreased from - 43 to - 54 yuan/ton (weekly) [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal in different regions and contracts increased. For example, the price of the coking coal 05 contract increased by 68 to 1164 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 6.2%. The sample coal mine profit decreased from 515 to 510 yuan/ton (weekly) [6]. Supply - Coke production was stable, with the daily average production of all - sample coking plants remaining at 62.7 tons. Coking coal production decreased slightly, with raw coal production decreasing by 2.7 to 853.4 tons [6]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production remained stable at 226.6 tons. The demand for coke was affected by steel mill production [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 3.0 to 915.7 tons, a growth rate of 0.3%. Coking coal inventory in different sectors had different changes, such as the Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increasing by 13.6 to 148.5 tons [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased. For example, the price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia increased from 5280 to 5350 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract price increased by 84 to 5860 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese main contract price increased by 224 to 6000 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port was relatively stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased slightly, and ferromanganese production was basically flat. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 32.2 to 117.4 tons, a growth rate of 37.8% [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese was supported by the expected increase in hot metal production. The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) remained at 1.8 tons, and the ferromanganese demand was 11.3 tons [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 - sample enterprises increased by 0.1 to 6.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.2%. The inventory of ferromanganese in 63 - sample enterprises increased by 0.8 to 39.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.9% [7].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Daily Report, December 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03113636 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018817 [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian Rebar 3300 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye 3150 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang Hot Rolled Coil 3280 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang Hot Rolled Coil 3190 yuan (+10) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis - Core View: Steel prices are still in a volatile trend. The decline in the steel futures market today is due to the stabilization of thermal coal prices, which has led to the continued rise of coking coal and coke. The overall spot trading volume of steel is generally weak, with mainly rigid demand for low-priced purchases. Last week, the output of the five major steel products continued to decrease, but the rate of decline slowed down. Due to the improvement of profit levels, both rebar and hot-rolled coils increased production. The total steel inventory is accelerating its decline, with the decline rate of social inventory faster than that of factory inventory. Steel is still in the inventory reduction cycle. Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials has weakened, while the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is still increasing due to the year-end replenishment of home appliance enterprises and the export impulse. The overall steel demand in December is still acceptable. On the raw material side, the supply of coal mines has increased slightly, but prices have stabilized. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the loss of import profit supports the iron ore price. There is support for steel costs, and molten iron may turn to resume production at the end of the month. Recently, the trading logic of iron ore has shifted to inventory replenishment. Thermal coal prices have stabilized, but the subsequent increase in steel supply will suppress the upward space for steel prices [5]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The upward trend has slowed down, and the price will maintain a range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil/thermal coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil/rebar spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 5: Important Information - Tariff Adjustment: Starting from January 1, 2026, the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities will be adjusted, which will change the import and export profits of some steel products [9] - Anti-dumping Ruling: On December 27, 2025, the Turkish Ministry of Trade issued Announcement No. 2025/44, making a positive final anti-dumping ruling on cold-rolled stainless steel coils originating from China, and deciding to impose an anti-dumping duty of 3.95% on the CIF price of the Chinese products involved. At the same time, a negative final ruling was made on the products from Indonesia, and no anti-dumping measures will be implemented against Indonesia. The measures will take effect from the date of the announcement and will be valid for five years [10] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data related to rebar and hot-rolled coils, such as price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins from 2021 - 2026 [11][14][16][20][21][22][27][29][31][33][36][40][45][47][49]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices opened low and rebounded slightly. The market's pricing of the outbound license policy was relatively neutral. Spot prices rose slightly with the support of stable futures prices. The supply - demand structure was still weak on a weekly basis, and furnace materials were under pressure. There may be some inventory replenishment later, and the current futures price valuation is relatively low, not recommended to chase short [2] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are under pressure, with strong upward resistance. Steel prices are under pressure, direct demand is weakening, and there is a large negative feedback pressure. The alloy plants have poor profits but high production, with a large supply - surplus pressure in the medium term. Recently, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is weaker than that of ferrosilicon [2] - The coking coal and coke futures rebounded, but the spot market sentiment was still weak. The third round of price cuts is expected this week. The market is waiting for the improvement of the spot market and the possible start of winter storage replenishment. Indonesia's plan to levy an export tax on coal will have a limited impact on China [4] - Iron ore prices are hard to improve due to rising port inventories. Iron water is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rebound in January. Steel mills may replenish iron ore inventory before resuming production, and the decline of iron ore prices may slow down. Hold previous short positions and consider taking profits at the lower limit of the range [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 15, the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of far - month and near - month contracts of various varieties such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. were provided. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of relevant varieties were also given [1] Spot Market - On December 15, the spot prices and price changes of various varieties in different regions were provided, including Shanghai and Tianjin for steel, and different ports for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [1] Steel - The futures price opened low and rebounded slightly. Spot prices rose slightly, and the supply - demand was weak. There may be inventory replenishment later. The current futures price valuation is relatively low [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The fundamentals are under pressure, with strong upward resistance. Steel price pressure leads to weak direct demand, and there is a large negative - feedback pressure. The alloy plants' production is high, and the supply - surplus pressure in the medium term is large. Recently, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is weaker than that of ferrosilicon [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market is weak, with the third - round price cuts expected this week. The futures rebounded after pricing in the 6 - round price - cut expectation but then oscillated. The market is waiting for the improvement of the spot market and the possible winter - storage replenishment [4] Iron Ore - Iron water is still falling and is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rebound in January. Port inventories are rising, and prices are hard to improve. Steel mills may replenish inventory before resuming production, and the decline of iron ore prices may slow down [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils and use options strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [5]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect their spot exposure [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Speculators should focus on buying far-month contracts at low prices [5]. - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to run slightly stronger, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. There may be some room for a decline in iron ore production in December, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter storage replenishment drive [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to be under pressure and weaken due to the over - supply situation, despite the strengthening cost support [5]. - The first round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented, but the coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices, considering the possible downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December [5]. - Iron ore is facing significant pressure at the upper end of the range. Due to the expected increase in inventory and the decline in steel mill profitability, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, both futures and spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. In December, focus on macro - trading expectations, such as the US interest rate cut expectations and China's Central Economic Work Conference [3]. - In the industrial sector, the seasonal off - season has not yet formed a consistent negative narrative. The inventory and production pressure of hot - rolled coils are prominent, which restricts the upside of prices and market participants' willingness to hold inventory. However, funds are not actively shorting steel prices due to low steel mill profitability [3]. - After December, there may be some appropriate inventory replenishment in the industrial sector, providing support at low prices. The iron ore production may decline in December, and then attention should be paid to the start of the winter storage replenishment drive [3]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is still insufficient [4]. - The steel price is under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, iron ore production is decreasing, and direct demand is expected to weaken. With the arrival of the off - season for terminal demand, the negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating [5]. - Alloy factories have poor profits, but production remains high, and there is insufficient motivation for self - reduction or production control. The medium - term over - supply pressure remains high, and inventory and warehouse receipts are accumulating [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the coking coal auction failure rate is high, and most transaction prices have fallen. Affected by the futures rebound, some Mongolian coal traders' quotes are temporarily stable, but market trading is average [5]. - In the futures market, on the first trading day of December, market risk appetite is good. With many domestic meetings in December, market expectations are high. Although the first - round coke price cuts have been implemented, the previous low points in the futures market have priced in 3 - 4 rounds of price cuts. With the increase in risk appetite, coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding [5]. - The steel data is still good, the apparent demand is seasonally weak but still resilient, production has increased, and the de - stocking slope is similar to the same period. The industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices are weak due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment, but there are still fluctuations on the supply side [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore has reached the upper end of the range - bound trading. In the short term, the arrival volume has increased, and the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain stable, with no significant unexpected fluctuations [5]. - In the medium term, inventory will continue to accumulate under pressure. Some steel mills in southern China are facing increased losses and weakening demand, leading to maintenance. The steel mill iron ore production has slightly decreased to 268 million tons (-1.6). Steel mill profitability is affecting production willingness, and it is expected that subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from steel mill production cuts, which will lead to a continuous increase in port inventory [5]. - Due to inventory pressure, it is difficult for iron ore to break through the upper end of the range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report, December 1, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar at 3,260 yuan (+40), Beijing Jingye rebar at 3,230 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil at 3,310 yuan (+20), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil at 3,250 yuan (+30) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market trend: The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with coal and coke leading the rebound [5] - Steel production and inventory: Five major steel products continued to increase production, with rebar production decreasing and hot-rolled coil increasing; total steel inventory destocking slowed down, social inventory destocking accelerated, and apparent steel demand declined slightly [5] - Raw material outlook: Iron ore production is expected to continue to decline this week, squeezing raw material prices; coal and coke prices have recently accelerated their decline due to increased supply and inventory, but the downside for coking coal is limited [5] - Steel price forecast: Short-term steel prices will remain volatile and slightly stronger, following the fundamentals and continuing to trade within a range [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [6] - Arbitrage: Suggest closing long positions in the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread for profit [7] - Options: Suggest waiting and seeing [8] Group 5: Important Information - Environmental inspection: The third round and fifth batch of central environmental protection inspection teams reported typical environmental problems in Tianjin and Hebei [9] - Tangshan steel billet: On the 1st, the direct sales of Tangshan steel billets were average, and the ex-factory price of steel billets is expected to increase by about 10 yuan in the afternoon [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain range-bound with limited upside due to weak demand, while the iron ore market is expected to be volatile with a generally loose supply-demand situation. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile with some uncertainties [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is currently oscillating. Thread demand has improved, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. Hot-rolled coil demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has started to decline. However, downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are still in a loss-making state. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. The real estate investment decline has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Domestic demand remains weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis. However, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the overall market is expected to remain range-bound. Attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is currently oscillating. The global shipment volume has decreased month-on-month but is still stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventories are expected to return to the inventory replenishment trend this week. The steel demand is at a low level, and it is currently in the off-season. Steel mills are not profitable, and pig iron production is still in a seasonal decline trend, although the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level. The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are still short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke market is currently oscillating. Coking profits are average, and daily production has continued to decline slightly. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and downstream demand is limited. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is currently weak and oscillating. Coking coal production has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions are average, with prices mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, but production is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. The prices of spot manganese ore have fluctuated, with high-grade oxidized ore slightly increasing and semi-carbonate ore slightly decreasing. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom support has shifted downward [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and Lan charcoal prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided in the given content - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. The steel market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the upside is restricted by weak demand [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to abundant carbon supply, seasonal decline in iron - water production, and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - For silicon manganese, the bottom - support expectation has shifted downward due to factors such as the expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price and the slow increase in inventory [7]. - For ferrosilicon, the bottom - support strength will be tested as the supply remains at a high level, although the overall demand still has some resilience [8]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand for thread improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory began to decline [2]. - Downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2]. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market fluctuated today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was still stronger than the same period. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly to the highest level this year, and the port inventory decreased last week and is expected to resume the accumulation trend this week [3]. - The apparent demand for steel rebounded from a low level last week, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is still weakening. Pig - iron production is in a seasonal decline trend, and the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production is slightly decreasing. Coke inventory has increased slightly, downstream purchases on a small scale as needed, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4]. - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price fluctuated weakly during the day. Attention should be paid to whether the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles will remain low due to weather factors [6]. - Coking - coal mine production has decreased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price [7]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Silicon - manganese weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Spot ore prices have mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The bottom - support expectation has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and blue - charcoal price [8]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 03 铁矿石 铁 矿 基 本 面 依 然 偏 弱 ， 上 方 压 力 明 确 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 价 格 低 位 区 间 震 荡 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 焦 炭 提 降 预 期 增 强 ， 盘 面 贴 水 计 价 2 - 3 轮预期 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：价格低位区间震荡，等待新驱动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周铁水产量弱稳，未能延续上涨，当周铁 ...