Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3220 yuan (+10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline, and iron ore remaining strong. Steel spot trading was generally weak, mainly driven by low-price rigid demand [5] - According to Buguwang data, building materials and hot-rolled coils continued to reduce production this week, and molten iron flowed into other sectors. The reduction in rebar production was greater than that of plates. Steel inventories decreased rapidly, but manufacturing demand was fair, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils improved, while the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection has been difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, the recent reduction in steel production has alleviated some pressure, and the main fluctuations come from raw materials [5] - Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the deadlock requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils have generally performed better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - According to Aoweiyunwang's total data, the retail sales volume of air conditioners in October decreased by 23.8% year-on-year. From the monthly monitoring data, the sales volume online and offline decreased by 22.2% and 42.3% respectively in October, and the decline offline continued to expand. In terms of production, Aoweiyunwang's latest production schedule data shows that the domestic sales production schedule for air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%, and the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The balance between domestic and export sales in the peak export season in December has been broken [9] - On November 18, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October 2025, China's excavator production was 30,880 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to October 2025, China's excavator production was 308,062 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern in the short term, with the demand outlook remaining pessimistic but the downside supported by moderately loose macro policies [2]. - Iron ore is predicted to oscillate mainly, as the market starts to trade the reality of a marginally looser fundamental situation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to show a moderately strong oscillatory trend, given the ample supply of carbon elements and the weakening downstream demand [4][5]. - Silicomanganese has strong support at the price bottom, despite the continuous decline in hot metal production and the slow accumulation of inventory [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall, considering the cost increase and the resilient overall demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market was mainly oscillatory, with thread steel slightly stronger than hot-rolled coil [2]. - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased slightly, production declined synchronously, and inventory continued to fall [2]. - The demand for hot-rolled coil stabilized, production continued to decline, and the pace of inventory accumulation slowed down [2]. - Hot metal production dropped from its high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb the output was insufficient [2]. - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall [2]. - Steel exports declined from their high level, and the overall domestic demand remained weak [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis has been relatively high recently [3]. - Globally, iron ore shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year, and the Simandou extension mine officially started production, but the short-term production capacity was limited [3]. - The domestic arrival volume remained at a high level for the same period, port inventory continued to increase, and there were some structural changes in Australian ore inventory [3]. - In the off-season, steel demand declined, steel mills' losses intensified, and there was room for further reduction in hot metal production [3]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated during the day, and the downstream's acceptance of the fourth round of price increases was poor [4]. - Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly [4]. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream buyers purchasing on a small scale as needed [4]. - Traders' purchasing willingness was average [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated during the day, and the daily import volume from Mongolia remained high [5]. - The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices [5]. - Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared to the previous period [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated during the day, and the first-round inquiry price from a large steel mill in the north was 5,750 yuan/ton, compared with the October tender price of 5,820 yuan/ton [6]. - Hot metal production continued to decline, and the weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [6]. - Silicomanganese inventory was slowly accumulating, and the Comilog's forward manganese ore quotation increased slightly compared to the previous period [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day, and hot metal production continued to decline [7]. - Export demand rose to around 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7]. - The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall demand remaining resilient [7]. - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, similar to the above balanced state [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, also in a balanced state [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆, with low operability and a balanced trend [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, the same as the others [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is under pressure in the short - term, with overall low - level range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to demand changes and the progress of domestic demand stimulus policies as the off - season approaches [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level, with the market starting to trade the reality of marginal relaxation of fundamentals [3] - The coke market has a third - round price increase expectation, but the steel's pressure on raw material prices is strong. Attention should be paid to safety production assessment information [4] - The coking coal market's price is not expected to decline continuously. Attention should be paid to the impact of safety supervision in major production areas [6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. Thread steel's apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand remained good, production rose slightly, and inventory also decreased [2] - Iron - making water production declined from a high level, and the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated [2] - The real estate investment declined significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand was weak, and the market sentiment was low [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened. Global shipments decreased, but were still at a high level. Domestic arrivals reached a new high this year, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - Last week, iron - making water production decreased significantly, and the steel mill profitability rate hit a new low this year. There is further production - cut pressure after entering the off - season [3] Coke - The coke price decreased during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase, but the coking profit is average, and downstream demand is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price decreased. Some coal mines in Wuhai resumed production, but the price is not expected to decline continuously. The total inventory increased slightly [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. The manganese ore price increased slightly [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated. Iron - making water production remained high, export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, and the supply was at a high level with inventory decreasing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is expected to experience a volatile and upward trend in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month [5][10][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures (RB2601 and HC2601) first declined and then rebounded significantly. By the end of October, the RB2601 contract rose 34 yuan/ton or 1.11%, and the HC2601 contract rose 55 yuan/ton or 1.69% [20][21][23]. - The premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar first narrowed and then significantly widened in October, increasing from 181 yuan/ton at the end of September to 202 yuan/ton at the end of October [24][26][27]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - In October, the social inventory of rebar turned to destocking after three consecutive months of accumulation, while the social inventory of hot-rolled coil reached a high and then declined. The seasonal demand for rebar recovered significantly, while its production remained at a low level since late February. The production of hot-rolled coil was still high, but its demand had a periodic trough. As a result, the price difference between hot-rolled coil and rebar first narrowed and then widened [28][29]. - Since the end of September, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has significantly declined to a new low since mid-September. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium-sized steel mills in the first and middle of October decreased compared with the same period in September but increased compared with late September. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products has generally strengthened to a new high since early May, except for a significant shrinkage in early October. The seasonal demand for steel continued to recover, leading to a significant destocking of rebar social inventory, but the social inventory of hot-rolled coil further increased due to high production and periodic low demand. It is expected that the steel demand in November may be high in the front and low in the back, and the steel price may be strong first and then weak [33][39][42]. - In the past four weeks, the production of rebar further declined, and the production of hot-rolled coil also turned to decline. The mill inventory of rebar turned to accumulation, while the mill inventory of hot-rolled coil continued to decline. This indicates that the spot market demand for rebar still needs to be improved, while the demand and supply of the hot-rolled coil market are relatively balanced. As a result, the premium of hot-rolled coil over rebar recovered to a relatively high level after narrowing in the first half of October [43][44]. - In October, the spot profits of blast furnace rebar and hot-rolled coil turned from profit to significant loss, the spot profit of electric furnace construction steel showed a slight expansion of the loss, and the disk profit of rebar showed a significant expansion of the loss. The main reason is that the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil first declined and then rebounded, while the spot price of iron ore continued to rise, and the spot price of coke increased twice, leading to a significant decline in the spot profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil. In the futures market, the steel futures rebounded after reaching a low, the iron ore futures rose again after a correction, and the coke futures rose significantly, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall disk profit of steel [45][47][49]. - Compared with January - August, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - September showed different performances. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by real estate development investment, has decreased for seven consecutive months. The demand for construction steel such as rebar, represented by the new housing construction area, has shown a narrowing decline after a slight expansion. The demand for manufacturing machinery steel, represented by the output of metal cutting machine tools, has increased for four consecutive months. The demand for real estate-related machinery steel, represented by the output of excavators, has shown a narrowing increase after a significant expansion. The demand for hot-rolled coil, represented by automobile production, has increased from stable to expanding, and the demand for cold-rolled coil, represented by household appliance production, has declined. In November, the seasonal demand for construction steel may be high in the front and low in the back, and the demand for industrial plate steel is expected to be relatively stable, which will contribute to the rise and then fall of steel prices in November [50][54][62]. 3.3 Future Outlook - With the improvement of the low-temperature weather in most parts of the north, the terminal demand is expected to improve. Although the social inventory of steel is significantly higher than in previous years, the improvement in demand may reduce the inventory pressure. - In the raw material market, the shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and the arrivals at Chinese ports have increased by 3% - 4% month-on-month in the past four weeks, and the ports have continued to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected recovery of downstream steel profits, the price of iron ore has strengthened significantly. The production of coke by independent coking enterprises has significantly declined recently, and the coke inventory in ports and independent coking enterprises is generally low, leading to the third round of price increases for coke spot at the end of the month. The coal price has generally increased due to the previous low-temperature weather in the north and stricter coal mine safety production inspections. The coking coal port inventory is at a low level, and although coking coal imports have recovered, there is still a year-on-year decline of more than 6% from January to September, resulting in a significant jump in the spot price of coking coal. - Against the background of the easing of the geopolitical situation, the positive expectations brought by two major industry policies, combined with the relatively stable increase in the costs of coal, coke, and ore, have led to a significant rebound in black metal commodity futures. It is expected that the steel market will continue to show a volatile and upward trend after consolidation in the first and middle of November, but may decline again later in the month. Attention should be paid to the cooperation of the spot market and the positive cycle effect of the expected improvement in the steel market on the raw material market [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel supply and demand are neutral with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black - metal market mainly depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. It is recommended to reduce long positions at the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - After multiple days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore has weakened. It is recommended to close long single - side positions and switch to a wait - and - see mode, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. It is recommended to speculatively go long on coke 2601 in the range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 in the range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but be aware of the large price fluctuations [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3220 to 3240 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, and some steelmaking costs and profits changed. For example, East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 4 to 17 yuan [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar output increased by 5.9 to 207.1, a rise of 2.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1, a decline of 3.0% [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipment volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The 45 - port daily average dispatch volume decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices generally decreased. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coking coal futures prices decreased. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1%. The profit of sample coal mines increased by 39 to 232, a rise of 7.9% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8, a rise of 0.4% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 [7]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, a rise of 2.2% [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The supply - demand gap of steel in October narrowed again. The production of five major steel products was lower than the apparent demand, and the apparent demand was close to the level of the same period last year with little inventory pressure. It is expected that the January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil will recover at the previous high. Hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure (rebar at 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan). The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage has widened. Consider that coal production continues to be reduced, and the arbitrage order can be held [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3220 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil increased from 3305 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products changed slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased, while the profit of some coal - related indicators increased. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased from 21 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, an increase of 1.0%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decrease of 1.7% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, an increase of 10.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, an increase of 2.0% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous callback, the negative factors of iron ore have been fully digested. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices, with the range referring to 780 - 850. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of different types of iron ore increased, and the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased from 52.2 yuan/ton to 50.1 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, an increase of 1.6%, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decrease of 19.5% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decrease of 7.1% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the port clearance volume decreased month - on - month. The inventory of beneficial ores of steel mills increased, and the inventory pressure increased [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1700 - 1850. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, but pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term fluctuation does not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage is recommended, and pay attention to the large market fluctuations [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1748 yuan/ton to 1801 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal increased from 1242 yuan/ton to 1302 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coking coal decreased due to safety and environmental reasons in some areas. The production of coke also decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to decline, the coking plant's operation rate continued to decrease, but there was replenishment demand after the festival [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of coking plants and ports increased, while the inventory of steel mills decreased. The overall inventory of coke was slightly reduced, and the overall inventory of coking coal was slightly increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5900 tons. This week, the coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6000 tons. At the import end, since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed traffic, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **China Shenhua**: In September, China Shenhua's coal sales volume decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. The commercial coal output in September was 27.6 million tons, and the cumulative output in the first nine months was 250.9 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 0.7% and a decrease of 0.4% respectively. The coal sales volume was 36.3 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume in the first nine months was 316.5 million tons, with year - on - year decreases of 1.6% and 8.4% respectively [9]. - **Online Auction of Coking Coal by Mongolia's Small TT Company**: On October 17, Mongolia's Small TT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal A24, V33, S0.9, G73, Mt1.9 was $60.8 per ton, the same as the previous auction on October 7. All 204,800 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of $63.8 per ton (all prices are tax - exclusive). The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 180 days after payment, with the final supply date being April 15, 2026 [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.0 | 1.64 | 1,691.5 | 1,668.5 | 20,491 | - 1,474 | 40,735 | - 1,812 | | Coking Coal | | 1,179.0 | 1.46 | 1,194.5 | 1,172.0 | 869,924 | - 111,364 | 606,535 | - 17,216 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][18] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over the years [21][24][26] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][29][32] 3.5后市研判 - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [34] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel, sentiment and the market are temporarily stable. Near - term industrial directional drivers are unclear, and the focus is on the release intensity of demand and marginal changes in supply - demand [3]. - For iron ore, the fundamentals have no contradictions for now. The short - term supply is not significantly affected, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the market risk preference is good, and the short - term adjustment needs to be verified by post - holiday industrial data. In the medium - to - long term, the policy impact on the supply side is expected to be positive [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, they mainly fluctuate following the sector in the short term, and there are still concerns in the medium term [3]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On October 9, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3159 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, HC2605 at 3293 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase, etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3096 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase, HC2601 at 3286 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase [1]. - The cross - month spreads, such as RB2601 - 2605 at - 63 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. - Spreads, ratios, and profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 190 yuan/ton on October 9, and the rebar's on - paper profit was - 93.08 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On October 9, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton with a 40 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase, etc. [1]. - The basis, such as the HC主力 basis was 74 yuan/ton on October 9, also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Steel**: Seasonally, post - holiday first - phase industrial data is usually poor but will recover. Near - term industrial drivers are unclear, and future focus is on demand release and supply - demand changes [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The holiday increase was due to a rumor. Supply data is stable in the short term, and over - supply may occur in the 4th quarter if there is no production cut [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot market has mixed performance, and the futures market rebounded. The short - term adjustment needs verification, and the medium - to - long - term policy impact on supply is positive [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: They mainly follow the sector in the short term. There are supply - demand and inventory issues, and there are concerns in the medium term [3]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - For steel, suggest to wait and see on the single - side, and can participate in the reverse spread or wait in the basis dimension [3]. - For iron ore, suggest to wait and see [3]. - For coking coal and coke, suggest to wait and see on the single - side [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, suggest to short on rallies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with a month - on - month improvement in apparent demand [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8] - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][12] - Silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as overseas mining companies' quotation rises [2][12] - Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][15] - Coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16] - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures was 805.5 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 9,319 lots. Imported ore prices decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32%, with a decrease in open interest. For hot - rolled coil, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, with an increase in open interest. Spot prices were mostly stable, and basis and spreads changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to September 25 steel union weekly data, rebar production increased by 0.01 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 tons. Apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.41 tons, and that for hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.14 tons. In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities increased. In August 2025, national steel production data showed different trends. Other news includes export and import data of steel products [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2511 was 5,786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2511 was 5,924 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 25, ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities were announced. In September, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia decreased, but production increased. New production capacity of silicomanganese is expected to increase. Overseas mining companies raised their quotations for November [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal, the closing price of JM2601 was 1,234.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.8%. For coke, the closing price of J2601 was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.7%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [17] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts changed. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]