- The report discusses the impact of year-end liquidity disturbances on the market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are temporary and do not alter the upward trend[1][10] - The main investment theme is shifting from technology to cyclical sectors, with recommendations for chemical ETFs, dividend ETFs, and brokerage ETFs[1][10] - The report highlights the importance of the dollar depreciation as a key factor supporting the A-share market's slow bull trend[1][10] - The report mentions the use of a fund position monitoring model to track the allocation of funds, noting increased allocations in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and transportation[1][11] - The report indicates that the technology sector's internal growth rate is slowing down, and the market is transitioning to cyclical sectors[1][11] - The report suggests that the recent market adjustments are due to year-end liquidity disturbances, with quantitative private equity products reducing their risk exposure significantly[1][12] - The report notes that the dollar depreciation trend, supported by lower-than-expected US CPI data, will continue to provide effective support for the A-share market's upward movement[1][13] - The report includes a section on timing strategies, mentioning the use of price segmentation systems and insider trading activity indicators[14][15] - The report provides industry monitoring data, including analysts' industry sentiment expectations and financing and securities lending trends[19][21] - The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, noting changes in market preferences and the performance of various factors such as turnover, financial leverage, and profitability volatility[24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has established a "slow bull" pattern driven by performance, with expected returns of 15% to 20% for major indices in 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - The target for the CSI 300 index in 2026 is set at 5200 points, while the MSCI China index is projected to reach 100 [1] - Earnings growth is expected to drive market returns, with projected year-on-year growth rates of 13% for the CSI 300 and 15% for the MSCI China index in 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Characteristics - The current A-share market volatility has decreased to nearly half compared to the 2014-2015 period, enhancing its attractiveness as an asset class [2] - The market is increasingly characterized by institutional participation, contrasting with the retail-driven high volatility of previous years [2] Group 3: Corporate Performance - Chinese companies are undergoing a "de-involution" process, allowing them to improve net profit margins and return on equity (ROE) despite slow revenue growth [2] - The expected ROE for Chinese stocks in 2025 is projected to grow by 12%, although the anticipated net profit margin is the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region at 5% [2] Group 4: Sector Insights - The export sector is identified as a core investment theme, with expectations of a relatively loose fiscal and monetary policy in major developed countries in the first half of 2026, which may boost demand for Chinese exports [2] - The food and beverage industry is highlighted as a sector poised for recovery, with current valuations below those of major markets like India, the US, and Japan, and potential for valuation recovery if domestic price indices stabilize [3]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlined the macroeconomic policy for the upcoming year, focusing on boosting consumption, effective investment, and fostering a positive ecosystem for hard technology innovation [3] - Foreign investment institutions expressed strong confidence in the economic outlook following the conference, emphasizing the potential for domestic demand and industrial expansion [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first dissent among committee members in six years, indicating increasing internal divisions [4] - Analysts believe that while further rate cuts are possible next year, the scope for such actions is limited due to persistent inflation and stable unemployment rates [4] Group 3 - The Central Committee's meeting on December 8 emphasized a balanced approach to economic work, focusing on stability and quality improvement, which will support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The meeting highlighted the importance of macro policies, expanding domestic demand, and innovation to lay a solid foundation for high-quality economic development [5] Group 4 - China Investment Corporation reported an annualized net return of 6.92% on foreign investments over the past decade, exceeding performance targets by 61 basis points [7] - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of China Investment Corporation reached $1.57 trillion, with net assets of $1.37 trillion [7] Group 5 - The Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund's total assets surpassed HKD 1.5 trillion for the first time, with a net investment return rate of approximately 15% since the beginning of 2025 [8] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a nearly 5% decline in the Hang Seng Index over the past two months, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping close to 15% [13] - Analysts suggest that the recent market adjustments are primarily influenced by liquidity expectations and short-term sentiment, with no significant changes in the fundamentals [13] Group 7 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, with foreign exchange reserves remaining stable above $3.3 trillion for four months [18] Group 8 - Private equity funds maintain high positions in the A-share market, with stock private equity positions reaching 82.97%, marking a new high for the year [20] - The strategy for 2026 is expected to focus on balanced layouts and "high-low cuts," with a belief in the continued foundation for a "slow bull" market [20]

从资金净流入方面来看，A500ETF基金(512050)近8天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得8.16亿元净流 入，合计"吸金"29.48亿元，日均净流入达3.68亿元。 截至2025年12月12日 14:03，中证A500指数(000510)上涨0.78%，成分股国瓷材料(300285)上涨20.02%， 中国西电(601179)上涨10.06%，拓荆科技(688072)上涨8.76%，东山精密(002384)上涨7.88%，西部超导 (688122)上涨7.44%。A500ETF基金(512050)上涨0.61%，最新价报1.16元。 流动性方面，A500ETF基金(512050)盘中换手34.49%，成交80.53亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截 至12月11日，A500ETF基金(512050)近1月日均成交59.49亿元。 A500ETF基金紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券 作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证A500指数(000510)前十大权重股分别为宁德时代(30075 ...

盘面上看，零售、银行、地产等板块走低，电力、有色、半导体等板块拉升，特高压、核电、商业航 天、CPO概念等活跃。 华金证券指出，A股慢牛延续，可能进一步推动春季行情开启。会议可能提振经济和盈利修复预期。一 是稳增长政策继续发力预期可能上升，社零和投资增速可能回升。二是财政政策发力、反内卷政策实施 可能提振盈利回升预期。流动性方面，会议可能进一步提升短期流动性宽松的预期。一是美联储如期降 息，且明年仍有降息空间，海外流动性宽松下对人民币汇率掣肘减轻。二是会议提出灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具，在当前经济增长压力较大的背景下，央行短期可能进一步降准降息。风险偏好方 面，政策定调积极提振市场情绪。 截至午间收盘，沪指微跌，深证成指涨0.57%，创业板指涨0.6%，北证50指数涨1.12%，沪深北三市合 计成交12563亿元。 12日早盘，两市主要股指盘中震荡上扬，北证50指数较为强势，一度涨超2%，全A超3200股飘红。 ...

Economic Assessment - The meeting emphasized the deepening impact of external environmental changes and the prominent contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand domestically[6] - The overall policy strength for next year is expected to be no lower than this year[2] - However, a strong stimulus is not anticipated despite the policy strength being maintained[3] Fiscal Policy Insights - Fiscal policy is projected to remain consistent with this year, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to stay at 4%[8] - General government debt is anticipated to increase slightly by 0.3 trillion to a range of 5.9-6 trillion[8] Monetary Policy Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to maintain a similar stance as this year, with a forecasted interest rate cut of 10 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[11] - The focus will remain on maintaining reasonable liquidity while promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery[11] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand continues to be the top priority, with a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption[12] - Infrastructure investment is expected to see a peak, contributing to overall investment stabilization[13] Real Estate Policy Changes - New measures in real estate policy include encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[14] - The urbanization rate has slowed, with only a 0.84 percentage point increase expected in 2024, indicating a potential decline in real housing demand[14] Stock Market Projections - A slow bull market is anticipated for A-shares in 2026, with limited support for a rapid bull market[20] - The market outlook is influenced by policy, liquidity, and fundamental factors, with a focus on cyclical and technology sectors driving performance[20] Risk Factors - Key risks include sudden geopolitical tensions abroad and domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations[22]

Group 1: Real Estate Cycle - The long-term upward cycle of real estate from 2000 to 2020 led to a widespread belief that housing prices would not decline, despite contrary predictions from analysts like Professor Zhu Ning [2][3] - The average rental yield in core cities of China is estimated to be around 2%, indicating a high price-to-earnings ratio of 50 times, suggesting that a rental yield of 3% is necessary for a price bottom [3][6] - Real estate development investment in China decreased by 14.7% year-on-year in the first ten months of the year, indicating a potential acceleration in the downward trend [3][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The decline in the real estate sector is expected to continue affecting China's economy through 2026, with significant impacts on related industries and financial sectors [3][6] - The slowdown in urbanization, aging population, and declining total population are identified as pressures on the real estate market post-2021 [6] - The contribution of real estate to GDP and employment is significant, and its decline could hinder overall economic growth [6][12] Group 3: Export Trends - China's exports grew by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year, contrary to initial fears of negative growth, with a notable increase in capital and technology-intensive products [7][8] - However, the growth in exports is expected to slow down in the coming year due to the diminishing "import grabbing" effect from the U.S. and high base effects from previous years [11][12] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff wars between major economies are likely to impact future export performance negatively [11][12] Group 4: Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is projected to become a more significant contributor to GDP growth, especially as export growth declines [12][16] - The consumption growth has shown a pattern of being higher in the first half of the year, with expectations of a slowdown in the latter half due to high base effects from previous years [15][16] - Long-term improvements in consumption will depend on rising household incomes and increased marginal propensity to consume, which are currently challenged by the real estate downturn [16][19] Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more aggressive, with a projected increase in the general deficit from approximately 11.9 trillion yuan to 13.2 trillion yuan [28][31] - Interest rates may be lowered by 10-20 basis points in 2026 to stimulate demand, although this poses challenges for banks' net interest margins [35][36] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is deemed essential to address the economic challenges and support growth [40][41] Group 6: Stock Market Outlook - The stock market has faced resistance around the 4000-point mark, with the need for corporate profit growth to outpace GDP growth for a sustained bull market [41][43] - The current economic environment suggests that corporate profitability must improve significantly to support stock market performance [41][43] - Structural bull markets are anticipated, particularly in the context of the AI revolution, which may provide new growth opportunities for companies [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].

Group 1 - The A-share market has reached a ten-year high, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4029.50 points, up 0.73%, and significant trading volume returning to the 2 trillion yuan level [1] - Northbound capital continues to show a net inflow, which is expected to support heavyweight sectors, indicating strong market liquidity [2][7] - The current market structure of "weak adjustment + high turnover" differs from traditional sharp declines, as funds rotate between sectors, providing a stable foundation for a gradual market uptrend [3] Group 2 - Market hotspots are diversifying, with sectors like energy storage and non-ferrous metals showing strength, while the camping economy concept has sparked a surge in small-cap growth stocks [5] - Some heavyweight sectors, such as securities, liquor, banking, and real estate, are currently in a low position and may become key drivers for the index if capital flows back into them [6][11] - On Friday, it is anticipated that the market will experience a combination of "heavyweight support + thematic rotation," with a focus on the capital flow in sectors like securities, liquor, banking, and real estate [11][13] Group 3 - The securities sector has not yet started but has reached a new high, and concentrated capital could accelerate the index towards 4500 points [8] - The liquor sector has undergone sufficient adjustment, and a return of capital could create a demonstration effect within the consumer sector [9] - The banking sector is seeing increased attention due to rising interest rate policy expectations, while the real estate sector has strong policy catalyst expectations that could lead to sudden opportunities [10]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rally on November 13, with major indices opening low and closing high, leading to the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high. The total trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1] - The financial technology sector saw a strong performance, particularly internet brokerages, with notable gains from companies like Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun, which rose by 1.78% and over 2% respectively [1] ETF Performance - The Financial Technology ETF (159851) rebounded with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the trading volume reached 483 million yuan, with over 200 million yuan added in the last five days [3] - The ETF's technical indicators suggest a potential bottom formation, indicating possible low-position investment opportunities [3] Future Market Outlook - Leading brokerage firms predict that the A-share bull market is likely to continue, driven by policy shifts and improved liquidity. The core logic supporting this bull market is expected to persist and even strengthen by 2026 [5] - The "transformation bull" in China is far from over, with economic transformation and capital market reforms expected to amplify bullish sentiment, potentially surpassing previous market highs [5] Investment Recommendations - Open-source Securities suggests that the current "slow bull" market validates ongoing sector re-evaluations, recommending continued focus on internet brokerages and financial IT sectors, which are expected to benefit from the market's upward cycle [5] - Non-bank financials are highlighted as the most benefitting sector from the slow bull market, with expectations for continued profit and valuation increases [5] Financial Technology Sector Insights - The Financial Technology ETF (159851) and its associated funds are recommended for investment, covering a range of themes including internet brokerages, financial IT, and AI applications [6] - As of October 31, the Financial Technology ETF has a scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 500 million yuan, leading among similar ETFs in terms of scale and liquidity [6]