Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral (Oscillating) [6] - Polysilicon: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to pre - holiday profit - taking by funds, new energy metals experience significant fluctuations. However, the concern about supply disruptions remains, and there are opportunities to buy low after the price of lithium carbonate stops falling. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The supply and demand surplus of lithium carbonate is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of December 29, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, with market inventory down 0.5% and factory inventory down 1.8%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 387.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In November, exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to November decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Demand**: In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 75% month - on - month and decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. In December, the demand from the polysilicon industry was weak, the production of silicone decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry was limited [6]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, but due to the fluctuations in coal prices and market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **Price and Market Information**: In the week of December 29, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 1.32% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 30. From January to November 2025, the export volume decreased by 32% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 53% year - on - year. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was established, and two new brands were added to the polysilicon futures registration [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the long - term, the anti - involution policy may restrict the supply. The demand for polysilicon has been gradually weakening since November. Although the anti - involution policy is expected to continue to ferment and the downstream prices of photovoltaic have stopped falling and stabilized, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating bullish [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Company News**: On December 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 8.96%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate also increased. Several leading cathode material manufacturers announced production line maintenance, which will reduce production in January [10]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. Although the maintenance of material factories in January may lead to demand weakening and increased inventory, the price is expected to be oscillating bullish, and the decline is limited, with opportunities to buy low [11]. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Indexes**: On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70% [53]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 29, 2025, the index was 498.73, with a daily decline of 5.69%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 8.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.94% [55].

Steel Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The steel industry is expected to see profitability bottom out in Q3 2024, with overall earnings remaining below historical averages. The profit outlook for 2025 is poor, except for a few months in Q2 and Q3 [1][2] Key Points on Demand - Demand for steel in the real estate sector is expected to continue declining until 2026, although the rate of decline is narrowing. Manufacturing and exports are emerging as new growth drivers, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as machinery, home appliances, and new energy [1][3][4] - The overall steel consumption in the construction chain is stabilizing, with exports and manufacturing becoming critical growth points. Recent export license management policies may lead to some steel returning to the domestic market, affecting supply and inventory levels [1][6] Production and Cost Dynamics - There are discrepancies in growth rates and statistical data across different stages of steel production (pig iron, crude steel, and finished steel), leading to varied market expectations regarding raw material price support [1][5] - Upstream raw material prices (iron ore and coking coal) are severely squeezing the profitability of midstream steel producers. The potential for upstream concessions, such as the commissioning of the Simandou mine, could lower costs [1][7] Policy Impacts - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to improve supply-demand fundamentals and stabilize steel prices. The effectiveness of the 50 million ton production cut plan is crucial for market expectations [1][8] - The carbon emissions trading system will create significant differentiation among steel companies, with those holding excess quotas able to profit from selling them, while those lacking quotas will face increased costs [1][11] Environmental and Regulatory Trends - The steel industry is entering a phase of stricter environmental and energy consumption management, with policies expected to be fully implemented by the end of 2025. The year 2026 will be critical for assessing the effectiveness of these measures [1][9][10] Investment Opportunities - In 2026, leading companies like Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Hesteel have already seen valuation increases due to their strong performance in product demand and cost management. However, second-tier companies with production capacities of 10-20 million tons, which have historically underperformed, may present significant investment opportunities if they can reduce production costs by 100-200 RMB per ton, potentially doubling their profits [1][12][13]

供给优化，气势升腾——基础化工 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 化工行业供给端正经历显著变化，欧洲因成本压力产能出清，国内固定 资产投资增速放缓，叠加反内卷政策，部分子行业有望走出供需过剩局 面，改善利润。 中国化学品价格指数（CCPI）和长江化学品板块毛利率均处于历史较低 水平，表明行业正经历周期性波动，未来或迎来上升周期。IMF 预测 2026 年全球 GDP 增速约为 3.09%，中国为 4.2%，外需具备韧性。 新能源、储能、AI 基建等新兴领域对化工产品需求产生积极影响，如新 能源汽车产量高增长、全球储能装机量提升、AI 基建投资热情高涨，拉 动上游材料消费。 国内化工龙头企业上半年业绩同比回落，但海外企业回落速度更快，欧 洲关闭大量产能，中国市场份额显著提升，反内卷政策对治理无序竞争 和推动落后产能退出起到积极作用。 能耗双控及环保政策可能成为推动供给优化的重要抓手，通过限制新增 项目审批和加强现有项目监管来减少过剩产能，从而推动整个行业景气 回升。 Q&A 2026 年度化工行业的投资策略是什么？当前行业供给端发生了哪些变化？ 2026 年度化工行业的投资策略可以概括为"供给优化 ...

Group 1 - Haitong Securities emphasizes the investment opportunity in energy leaders with production expansion and cost reduction capabilities, supported by a long-term oil price floor around $60 per barrel [1] - CITIC Securities notes that the current market is seeing significant institutional investment in A500 ETF, indicating a stable influx of funds and a potential "cross-year + spring" market rally [2] - CITIC Securities highlights the rapid development of GaN technology as a key driver for the next generation of robotics, enabling significant reductions in size and energy loss for servo drives [3] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicates limited downward space for funding rates, with DR001 approaching the lower bound of the interest rate corridor, suggesting a stable low-interest environment ahead [4] - CITIC Securities reports that the IPO process for leading private commercial rocket companies may accelerate following the release of new listing standards by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5] - CITIC Securities predicts stable sales for the liquor industry during the 2026 Spring Festival, supported by measures taken by leading companies to manage inventory and promote sales [6] Group 3 - Galaxy Securities points out that structural characteristics of the economy remain evident, with high-end industries and related raw materials sectors being key areas of focus for investment [7] - CICC forecasts a potential turnaround year for the photovoltaic industry in 2026, with improvements in supply-demand relationships and opportunities for leading companies to return to profitability [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the positive performance of the equity market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an "eight consecutive days" rebound, driven by expectations of a "spring market" and increased trading volumes [3][7] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by global liquidity easing, particularly in the U.S., which is expected to support financial asset prices. Domestic monetary policy aims for cross-cycle adjustments, with a long-term easing bias remaining intact [3][8] - The bond market showed signs of stabilization, with short-term yields declining while long-term yields remained volatile. The current economic recovery is still uncertain, limiting the potential for significant adjustments in the bond market [4][9] Group 2 - The public fund market is witnessing significant interest, as evidenced by the successful subscription of the 华夏中核清洁能源 REIT, which attracted over 160 billion yuan in subscriptions, indicating strong investor confidence [11][12] - The REITs market is experiencing a broad increase, with the 中证 REITs total return index rising by 1.56%, driven by sectors such as affordable housing and industrial parks [10] - The article highlights the performance of various fund indices, with the growth stock fund index showing a notable increase of 4.20% for the week, reflecting strong investor interest in growth-oriented investments [14][22]

研究咨询部 苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 时间：2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货-PVC 2026年报 --供给有望收缩，PVC价格反弹可期 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 1 2025年PVC整体延续震荡下行走势。进入2025年，在以碱补氯之下，PVC供应不减，下游房地产数据不佳，加上美国加征关税引发PVC地板出 口担忧，PVC期价持续下跌。5月12日，中美经贸高层会谈在日内瓦，市场情绪好转，PVC期价小幅反弹，但随着宏观消息的消化，PVC回归基 本面，期价下跌，刷新年内新低。6-7月，伊以冲突爆发导致原油价格大幅上涨，印度BIS政策延期至年底，叠加反内卷政策刺激PVC迎来较 大幅度反弹。反内卷刺激告一段落后，万华化学等PVC新增产能仍不断投产，氯碱装置仍有利润，印度作出的PVC反倾销终裁将中国大陆地区 普遍较此前上调46-52美元/吨，PVC库存持续增加，加之持续增加的仓单压制，PVC加权期价在12月中旬创下上市以来的新低。随着国务院 ...

Economic Growth Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a reasonable growth rate of around 5% in 2026, with overall economic growth risks decreasing[2] - The decline in real estate investment is anticipated to narrow, supported by proactive policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market[3] - Consumption, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing upgrades are expected to be the main drivers of growth, with these sectors projected to grow faster than in 2025[2] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to show moderate improvement, driven by rising pork and service prices, while PPI is projected to narrow its decline and potentially rebound by Q4 2026[3] - The overall price level recovery will be gradual, characterized by "moderate recovery and structural differentiation," contributing to further nominal economic growth[3] Policy Environment - The macroeconomic policy will continue to be "proactive and effective," emphasizing coordination and flexibility, with increased counter-cyclical adjustments[2] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain "more proactive," with a projected deficit rate of around 4% and a deficit scale of approximately 5.9 trillion yuan[61] - Monetary policy will maintain an "appropriately loose" stance, with expectations of a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[67] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include policy underperformance, unstable consumer expectations, escalating US-China strategic tensions, and geopolitical conflicts[4]

Group 1 - Recent price increases in PX and PTA futures have drawn significant market attention, with PX futures reaching a high of 7618 yuan/ton and PTA futures surpassing 5300 yuan/ton, both marking nearly one-year highs [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical, as one of the largest PX and PTA producers globally, holds a leading position with a PX capacity of 10.4 million tons, accounting for approximately 24% of the national total [1] - The PTA production capacity in China is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding about 52% of the total capacity, and Yisheng Petrochemical, a joint venture involving Rongsheng, being the largest PTA producer with a capacity of 2.15 million tons [1] Group 2 - The industry has experienced significant expansion since 2019, with production capacity doubling from 46.69 million tons to over 94.7 million tons by 2025, but no new capacity is expected in 2026, easing supply pressures [1][2] - As of December, PTA inventory levels are low, and the overall market fundamentals remain stable, with a decrease in PTA operating rates from 83.7% to around 78.8% since late October [2] - Rongsheng Petrochemical is actively transitioning towards high-value chemical new materials, with its subsidiary making progress in fine chemicals and new materials, reflecting a strong performance with a net profit of 286 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1427.94% [2] Group 3 - The outlook for 2026 indicates no new PTA capacity and concentrated PX capacity additions in the second half, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [3] - The industry is shifting focus from capacity expansion to enhancing efficiency and transformation, as emphasized by a joint policy from six departments, which is expected to accelerate market share concentration towards leading companies [3] - Rongsheng Petrochemical's advanced capacity advantages are being amplified, positioning the company at the forefront of the new industry cycle [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dual焦 (coke and coking coal) prices are expected to steadily rise by 2026 due to policy support and supply constraints, while the steel market is transitioning to a dynamic balance, with price stability anticipated [1] Group 2 - The steel industry's main contradiction this year is that the decline in demand is greater than the decline in production, leading to a continuous decrease in crude steel apparent consumption for the fifth consecutive year [2] - The real estate sector is undergoing deep adjustments, with infrastructure investment growth turning negative and manufacturing investment growth dropping below 3%, which impacts overall steel demand [2] - Despite the pressure on demand, steel mill profits are expected to recover significantly in 2025 due to raw material cost reductions [2] - The demand structure for steel is expected to continue adjusting in 2026, with limited incremental demand from real estate policies focused on "digesting stock" and building "good houses" [2] - Manufacturing and exports are anticipated to support steel demand, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a strong manufacturing nation [2] - Although steel demand remains in a downward trend, the space for further decline is limited [2] Group 3 - The dual焦 market is currently in a "tight balance" state, with both coking enterprises and steel mills maintaining low inventory strategies [3] - Domestic coal prices have shown a downward trend, with a significant decrease in coking coal imports, which fell by 4.8% year-on-year [3] - The demand structure for coal is undergoing profound changes, with a slight increase in thermal coal consumption [3] - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to experience a "tight balance" in supply and demand, with prices likely to show strong fluctuations due to policy support and supply contraction [3] - The profitability of coking enterprises is constrained by excess capacity and limited bargaining power, leading to ongoing profit competition among steel enterprises [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [2][3] Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to trade between $55-70 per barrel [2][3] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a continued rise in long-term contracts for refrigerants, with organic silicon prices likely to increase again, driven by demand from commercial aerospace and storage sectors [2][3] - The report highlights several key investment opportunities in the chemical sector, particularly in the textile, agricultural chemicals, export-related products, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [2][3] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil supply is constrained due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with an improving global economy [3] - Coal prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas export facilities in the U.S. may accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [3] Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and export chains, with specific companies recommended for each segment [2][3] - Key companies to watch include: - Textile Chain: Lu Xi Chemical, Tongkun Co., and others [2] - Agricultural Chain: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, and others [2] - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and others [2] Growth Focus on Key Materials - Emphasis on self-sufficiency in critical materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with specific companies highlighted for investment [2][3]