Report Overview - Research variety: Caustic soda [1] - Report cycle: Weekly - Date of report: June 23, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda futures main - contract price continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, and the spot price also continued to fall. High - price transactions of caustic soda are difficult at present. The main downstream maintains a high purchase volume, while non - aluminum downstream remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the futures market may continue to operate weakly in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. As of the reporting date, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The highest price was [not given], the lowest was [not given], the open interest was [not given] million lots, a decrease of [not given] lots from last week, and the trading volume was [not given] million lots, an increase of [not given] million lots from last week. The futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. Currently, the caustic soda futures price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [2][11] 3.2 Spot Market - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from last week. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, with load decreasing; equipment in Northwest and East China resumed operation after maintenance, with load increasing [5] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 36.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.57% from last week [5] - Price: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda this week, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and the new order signing situation was poor, resulting in enterprises selling at reduced prices. The transaction price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.90% from last week; in Jiangsu, it was [not clear], a decrease of 1.04% [5][11] 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot market: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and new order signing was poor, forcing enterprises to cut prices [11] - Futures market: The caustic soda futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. The current price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [11] 3.4 Associated Varieties Analysis - Upstream raw materials: The price of raw salt remained stable, and the coal price continued to decline in a volatile manner, causing the cost side to continue to decline [11] - Downstream: The operating rate of alumina increased slightly this week, but the overall incremental demand for caustic soda was limited. Non - aluminum downstream demand still showed no obvious increase, and the procurement of caustic soda was mainly for rigid demand [11]

黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 24 日 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月23日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, the refined nickel market is in a pattern of oversupply with relatively sluggish spot trading. The short - term may end the weak oscillation stage, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies [2][3] - For the stainless steel variety, the short - term may find a phased low around 12400, and the mid - to long - term also maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On June 19, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 118,550 yuan/ton and closed at 118,890 yuan/ton, a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 88,477 lots, and the open interest was 75,358 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 oscillated upwards, ending a five - day losing streak. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day. The green column area of the daily MACD did not continue to expand. There was a top - divergence phenomenon at around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The spot market prices of mainstream brands increased, and the premium was relatively stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,765 (- 374.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 203,598 (- 522) tons [2] - **Strategy** - The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. Short - term operations are advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies. The strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On June 19, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,490 yuan/ton and closed at 12,575 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 121,673 lots, and the open interest was 179,438 lots [3] - The main contract oscillated upwards, closing with a positive line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The green column area of the daily MACD did not expand further and was close to turning red. The spot market prices in Foshan were mostly flat compared to the previous trading day, and the market confidence had not recovered. The nickel - iron price was expected to be weak in the short term. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,850 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy** - The 60 - minute line of the stainless steel main contract formed a double - bottom structure at 12,440. Wait for a rebound to break through the previous high of 12,635. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 20 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月19日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月18日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 18 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-17 精炼镍升贴水维稳，盘面底部震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-16日沪镍主力合约2507开于119800元/吨，收于119690元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.28%，当日成交量 为98243手，持仓量为79723手。 沪镍主力合约2507全天窄幅震荡，日线收十字小阴线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有小幅增加，持仓量 有小幅减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积开始缓慢扩大，短周期内或许会步入弱势震荡的阶段。60 分钟线在6月6日的123000附近出现顶背离现象，继续关注上方122000-123000短期一线压力位置，下方等待破位 119000的底背离出现。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调875元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的 下调。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，但市场升贴水较平稳，下方仍有支撑，精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般， 升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近期处于相对平稳的态势。其中金川镍升水变化0元/吨至2500元/吨， 进口镍升水变化-150元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为223 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend, but investors should remain cautious and avoid blind chasing [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. - The gold market is expected to reach new highs, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a focus on oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14]. - The glass market should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. - The urea market is in a weak adjustment phase, and short - position holders should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Futures - On June 16, the main contract of methanol futures rose by over 4%. The increase was driven by both supply - side tightening and demand - side recovery [3]. - On the supply side, domestic coal - based methanol plants reduced production due to environmental inspections, with the operating rate dropping to 70% and production decreasing by 3% compared to last week. Imports also decreased due to tight supply in the Middle East [3]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of MTO units rose to 78%, the demand in the olefin industry recovered, and formaldehyde enterprises increased their inventory, driving up the demand for methanol [3]. - In terms of cost structure, coal prices rose by 5%, and natural gas prices increased slightly, providing strong cost support [3]. - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons shut down, and the rest operated at low loads. Iranian methanol accounts for about half of China's imports [3]. Stock Index Futures - In May, the stable and positive trend remained unchanged, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. Gold - Due to the Israeli raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it is also following the upward trend. Gold is still expected to reach new highs [12]. Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [15]. - Technically, the support level was tested again today and proved effective, so the market should be viewed as oscillating [14]. Glass - On the supply side, there has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses, and factory inventories remain high. Downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly [18]. - Technically, the market showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a short - term oscillating view is adopted, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. Urea - On the supply side, the daily domestic urea production is around 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [19]. - On the demand side, agricultural demand progress is still slow, and downstream players' participation is limited. Urea prices continue to adjust weakly. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders have made profits, and they should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19].

01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 2025.06.16-06.20 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 工业硅现货价格持续下跌，西南地区进入丰水期，电价略有下调，生产成 本降低，目前只有大厂和国企稳定运行，整体开工略有下调，但整体供应 仍处于宽松阶段。下游多晶硅有机硅开工持续缩减，采购窄幅下降。供需 面支撑表现偏弱。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线 处于下行通道中。 目录 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，库存压力大，产量预期增多，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices face significant upward pressure. The supply side has high pressure with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year. Although consumption is currently strong, it can't offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 22,310 yuan/ton, with the premium down 15 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, with the premium up 5 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 20 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with the premium down 5 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On June 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,100 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots. Open interest was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,965 - 22,160 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,100 tons, down 2,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot market: Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still low, and spot premiums continue to decline [3] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year [3] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs is not yet apparent. It can't offset high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [3]