Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the significance of early mortgage repayment has intensified as the five-year LPR has dropped to 3.5% and the average interest rate for first-time home loans has fallen below 3%, indicating a shift in wealth management strategies among Chinese households [1] Group 1: Changing Financial Dynamics - The decline in mortgage rates has led to a reevaluation of the financial attributes of real estate, with some homeowners finding that the cost of holding property is now comparable to rental prices [3] - In cities where mortgage rates have increased, the combination of lower public fund loan rates has made mixed financing options more attractive, highlighting the influence of interest rates on asset prices [3] - The long-term impact of inflation on mortgage payments suggests that fixed-rate mortgages can serve as a hedge against inflation, preserving purchasing power over time [3] Group 2: Shift from Deleveraging to Leverage Optimization - The trend of early mortgage repayment is being replaced by strategies that optimize leverage, such as using low-interest mortgages to replace higher-interest consumer loans [4] - Younger generations exhibit a higher tolerance for mortgage debt, viewing it as a form of financial security rather than a burden, which reflects a generational shift in financial planning [4] - The overall leverage ratio of Chinese households has increased significantly, indicating a transition in financial strategies from deleveraging to leveraging opportunities [4] Group 3: Future Trends in Housing Finance - The changing demographics and economic cycles suggest that the financial attributes of real estate will become less dominant compared to its residential value, with a projected increase in second-hand home transactions [5] - Policy shifts indicate a move towards viewing mortgages as economic stabilizers rather than burdens, with various measures being introduced to support reasonable housing demand [5] - The current low mortgage rates may represent a unique opportunity for wealth redistribution, as leveraging assets becomes more favorable in a low-interest environment [6]

给予市场主体在市场活动中足够空间感，金融对实体的支持才能真正派生出信用杠杆。 《若干措施》所要推动的小微企业贷款，使用的结构性货币政策工具，支持符合条件的小微企业在新三 板挂牌等，抓住了当前经济中存在的许多关键问题，有利于为经济疏筋松骨，改善小微企业的经营困 境，降低其融资成本，提高其经济活动效率等。 当然，必须明晰，如果这些举措在实施过程中能保持开放和趋势互动性，保持与小微企业畅通对话，监 管的所予就更能高效匹配小微企业所愿所诉，政策与市场的有效对话机制就会更方便地激发经济的活 力，这些工具措施才能带来事半功倍的效果。 当前在积极推动23项工作措施落实的同时，还需要进一步推动全面深化改革，通过简政放权为市场主体 释放更宽广的空间，这需要打破各领域垄断，真正让市场主体感受到市场准入的负面清单管理，是围绕 市场的可行可信自由度展开，权在法下已是经济社会标配，市场主体有了制衡权力自由裁量空间的硬约 束力量等，这些更深层次的改革是包括小微企业在内的所有市场主体信用扩张之根，把这些根扎深，金 融对小微企业的融资支持，才能触动经济最活跃的那根弦，才能打开投资边际收益空间，激发市场信用 的洪荒之力。 21日国家金融监管总 ...

以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 1、债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比少增。截至2025年4月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合计为167.82万亿元，环比净增加 1.61万亿元，较3月环比少增1.05万亿元。 各类型债券托管总量均环比净增。本月（2025年4月，下同）利率债托管量114.03万亿元，在银行间债券市场 托管量中占比67.95%，环比净增加0.99万亿元；信用债托管量18.35万亿元，占比10.94%，环比净增加0.07万亿 元；金融债券（非政策性）托管量11.95万亿元，占比7.12%，环比净增加0.18万亿元，同业存单托管量21.56万 亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $110,900, with a market capitalization exceeding $2.15 trillion, positioning it among the top five global assets, but this surge led to significant liquidations and losses for investors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Over 120,000 investors were liquidated within 24 hours, with total liquidation amounting to $452 million, where long positions accounted for $190 million (42%) and short positions for $260 million (58%) [2][3]. - The rapid price increase was driven by multiple factors, including clearer regulatory frameworks from the SEC, easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, and rising demand for Bitcoin as an alternative asset amid economic uncertainties [4][6]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many investors blindly chased the price after it surpassed $100,000, using high leverage, which led to forced liquidations when Bitcoin's price fell back to $109,500 [5][6]. - The volatility prompted some investors to reassess their risk exposure, leading to reduced leverage or market exits, as evidenced by increased Bitcoin inflows to exchanges and record issuance of Tether (USDT) [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Implications - The significant liquidation events may prompt regulatory bodies like the SEC to enhance oversight of cryptocurrency derivatives markets, potentially increasing margin requirements and limiting leverage [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's price increase is heavily reliant on institutional buying, and any slowdown in this buying could trigger a market correction [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the recent surge, the market remains fraught with uncertainties, with predictions ranging from a potential rise to $120,000 in Q2 2025 to concerns about increased correlation with traditional financial markets, which could lead to downward pressure in case of economic downturns [8][9].

丨证券研究报告丨 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 难有趋势行情，关注曲线交易机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2021 年以来债市延续的"资产荒"的逻辑在今年并不适用，债市整体呈现"负债荒"，负债缺 口和负债结构是今年债市交易的主线，当前市场缺少负债稳定的配置盘力量。债市难以趋势性 上行，在基本面稳定但仍有潜在不确定性的情况下，持续的负 carry 才能推动长端利率趋势性 回调，而二季度资金价格收紧概率不高。但债市近期缺乏赔率，模型显示 10bp 的正 carry 可拉 动银行间债市杠杆率抬升 0.1-0.2 个百分点左右。建议 10 年期国债收益率在 1.65%以上、30 年国债收益率在 1.9%以上逢调配置，负债稳定的机构可适当关注 3 年以上信用债票息机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% cjzqdt11111 2025-05-22 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2 ...

交易盘增持利率债保险减持金融债 非银杠杆继续抬升但仍处低位 —— 2025 年 4 月债券托管数据点评 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 首席分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 邮 | [交易盘增持利率 Table_Title] 债保险减持金融债 非银杠杆继续抬升但仍处低位 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 22 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [➢Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $33.00 [8][9] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 70.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, exceeding the forecast of 69.17 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit was 3.63 billion RMB, surpassing the expected 2.59 billion RMB, driven by the gradual recognition of deferred revenue from "Three Strategies" and stable growth in advertising revenue [1][2][4] - User engagement has significantly increased, with daily average usage time reaching a historical high of 108 minutes and daily active users (DAU) at 107 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The number of official members grew by 12% to 264 million [2][3] - The gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 17.31 billion RMB, a 76.1% year-on-year increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The company anticipates continued high growth in H1 2025, supported by upcoming events and new game releases [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross margin of 36.3% in Q1 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to high growth in gaming and advertising businesses. The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 3.42 billion RMB, exceeding the forecast of 2.2 billion RMB [4][5] - The report projects revenues of 305.7 billion RMB, 336.1 billion RMB, and 363.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 19.99 billion RMB, 26 billion RMB, and 31.83 billion RMB for the same years [5][15] User Engagement and Advertising - The platform's user engagement metrics improved significantly, with a notable increase in the number of creators with over one million followers, growing by 20%. Advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 19.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [2][3] - The company expects advertising revenue for 2025 to reach 97.67 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19% [2][5] Valuation and Market Position - The company employs a segment-based price-to-sales (PS) valuation method, resulting in a target market value of 101.28 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of $33.00, based on a PS ratio of 3.3x for 2025 [5][15]

2025 年 5 月 21 日 总量研究 政策行托管量环比续减，其余机构增持债券 ——2025 年 4 月份债券托管量数据点评 要点 1、 债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比少增。截至 2025 年 4 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合 计为 167.82 万亿元，环比净增加 1.61 万亿元，较 3 月环比少增 1.05 万亿元。 各类型债券托管总量均环比净增。本月（2025 年 4 月，下同）利率债托管量 114.03 万亿元，在银行间债券市场托管量中占比 67.95%，环比净增加 0.99 万亿元； 信用债托管量 18.35 万亿元，占比 10.94%，环比净增加 0.07 万亿元；金融债 券（非政策性）托管量 11.95 万亿元，占比 7.12%，环比净增加 0.18 万亿元， 同业存单托管量 21.56 万亿元，占比 12.85%，环比净增加 0.38 万亿元。 2、债券持有者结构及变动 分机构托管量环比变化： 本月除政策性银行的债券托管量表现为大幅减持外，其他债券市场主要机构均表 现为增持，具体来看： 政策性银行增持同业存单和主要信用品，大幅减持主要利率品； 商业银行持续增持主要利率品和信用品 ...

四川名酒水井坊有一个特别的身份，是A股唯一一家外资控股的白酒企业，由全球最大的烈酒集团之一帝亚吉欧（Diageo）控股。但未来，这一身份有可 能会发生变化。 5月20日，总部位于伦敦的帝亚吉欧公布2025财年第三季度（截至2025.3.31日）业绩后，公布了一项"加速计划"，指导未来数年发展方向，其中包括成本 节约和去杠杆，宣布"要在未来几年恰当且有选择性的资产处置。" 20日晚间，分析师电话会议中，首席财务官Nik Jhangiani如此描述："通过内部和董事会评估，我们看到了一些机会，可以进行一些我认为是实质性的变 革，不只是资产组合削减……我无法透露更多，但显然，这将超出过去三年您看到的规模较小的品牌处置。" 帝亚吉欧旗下拥有约200个酒水品牌，在180多个国家及地区生产销售产品，包括知名苏格兰威士忌品牌尊尼获加（Johnnie Walker）、苏格登（The Singleton）；其他品类如百利甜酒（Baileys）、斯米诺伏特加（Smirnoff）、健力士黑啤（Guinness）等。 帝亚吉欧一直在出售表现不佳的小品牌，比如不久前出售了利口酒Safari和朗姆酒Cacique。帝亚吉欧庞大的产品体系 ...

Core Viewpoint - Warner Bros. Discovery has been downgraded to junk status by S&P Global Ratings, reflecting significant financial challenges and increased default risk [1][2] Group 1: Credit Rating and Financial Health - S&P downgraded Warner Bros. Discovery's issuer credit rating to "BB+", one notch below the lowest investment-grade rating of "BBB-" [1] - The downgrade is primarily due to declining revenues and cash flows from traditional linear television, with projected leverage rising to 4.3 times by the end of 2025, exceeding the investment-grade threshold of 3.5 times [2] - The company currently has approximately $38 billion in outstanding debt, with about $31 billion included in the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index [2] Group 2: Market Perception and Investor Sentiment - Despite the downgrade by S&P, Moody's and Fitch maintain higher ratings for the company at Baa3 and BBB- respectively, which may still attract some investors [2][4] - Investor sentiment is expected to become more cautious regarding the company's bonds, especially if revenue and cash flow continue to decline [2][3] Group 3: Operational Challenges - Warner Bros. Discovery faces ongoing operational challenges, including a decline in traditional linear TV advertising and subscription users, high merger-related debt, content impairment, and rising costs associated with streaming transformation [4] - The company has struggled to reduce debt and improve leverage ratios to meet investment-grade standards, with analysts noting that the company's bonds still have higher option-adjusted spreads compared to other high-yield rated issuers [3]