在这个充满政治戏剧和市场猜测的季节里，唐纳德·特朗普总统再次成为了头条新闻的制造者，这次的 目标是美国经济的守护者——联邦储备系统。 据知情人士透露，特朗普正考虑打破传统，大幅提前宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，这距离现任主席杰 罗姆·鲍威尔的任期结束还有近一年的时间。 这场不同寻常的"选秀"不仅是对鲍威尔的公开施压，更是一场试图在正式交接前就影响货币政策的"后 座司机"策略，让华尔街的交易员们既感到困惑，又嗅到了潜在的交易机会。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满早已不是秘密。他认为鲍威尔在降息问题上过于"谨慎"，未能充分利用货币政策 来"涡轮增压"经济，配合他那"一个、大、美丽的法案"（The One, Big, Beautiful Bill）所描绘的增长蓝 图。 白宫的官方说法是，美联储应该追求"以增长为导向"的政策，但翻译过来，这通常意味着：总统希望看 到更低的利率，而且是越快越好。 现在，特朗普的耐心似乎已经耗尽。他正在考虑在今年秋天，甚至可能在夏天就宣布他心目中的下一任 美联储掌门人。这比通常的过渡期提前了整整半年。 这个想法的核心是创造一个"候任主席"，让这位被选中人能够提前进入公众视野，通过公开发言来塑造 市场 ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 1. 2025 年 6 月 26 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22290~22390 元/吨，双燕成交 于 22380~22530 元/吨，1#锌主流成交于 22220~22320 元/吨。早盘市场对 均价报价升水 40~50 元/吨，无对盘报价。第二交易时段，普通国产报价 对 2507 合约升水 110 元/吨，白银对 2507 合约升水 160 元/吨，会泽对 2507 合约升水 200 元/吨，高价品牌双燕对 2507 合约报价升水 200~250 元/吨。 2. 宁波市场主流品牌 0#锌成交价在 22280~223 ...

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【导读】多只LOF溢价明显，基金公司提示风险 日前，伴随着A股市场强势反弹，场内基金受到资金追捧。多只LOF产品二级市场交易价格明显高于基 金份额净值，出现较大幅度溢价。基金公司密集发布公告，紧急提示投资者关注溢价风险。 基金公司提示LOF溢价风险 " 在二级市场中，LOF基金的实时交易价格通常以基金的净值为基准，并受市场供求关系的影响而产生 波动。通常情况下，当购买者增多，导致二级市场上的份额稀缺，交易价格便会上涨。当二级市场的交 易价格超过基金的净值时，便形成了溢价现象。"华南一位公募人士称。 6月26日，富国基金公告称，旗下富国中证工业4.0指数基金A类份额（场内简称：工业40LOF）二级市 场交易价格明显高于基金份额净值，出现较大幅度溢价。特此提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风 险，投资者如果盲目投资，可能面临损失。 数据显示，当前LOF基金的整体场内规模和交易量相对较小。因此，LOF基金的二级市场价格容易受到 市场波动的影响，少量资金即可撬动这些LOF的二级市场价格。 富国基金还表示："若本基金后续二级市场交易价格溢价幅度未有效回落，本基金有权采取向深圳证券 交易所申请盘中临时停牌、延长停牌时间等 ...

【导读】多只LOF溢价明显，基金公司提示风险 中国基金报记者 张燕北 日前，伴随着A股市场强势反弹，场内基金受到资金追捧。多只LOF产品二级市场交易价格明 显高于基金份额净值，出现较大幅度溢价。基金公司密集发布公告，紧急提示投资者关注溢 价风险。 基金公司提示LOF溢价风险 基金公司密集发布关于旗下基金二级市场交易价格溢价风险的提示公告。 6月26日，富国基金公告称，旗下富国中证工业4.0指数基金A类份额（场内简称：工业 40LOF）二级市场交易价格明显高于基金份额净值，出现较大幅度溢价。特此提示投资者关 注二级市场交易价格溢价风险，投资者如果盲目投资，可能面临损失。 富国基金还表示："若本基金后续二级市场交易价格溢价幅度未有效回落，本基金有权采取向 深圳证券交易所申请盘中临时停牌、延长停牌时间等措施以向市场警示风险，具体以届时公 告为准。" 从场内价格的走势来看，工业40LOF在6月25日收盘时，其场内价格涨至1.051元/份，与A类 份额当日净值0.9660元/份相比，溢价明显。 类似的情况还发生在嘉实惠泽灵活配置（LOF）。6月25日收盘时，该基金场内价格已涨至 1.381元/份，与当日净值1.2071 ...

原油QDII纷纷开启限购并频发溢价风险警示。 国际油价大起大落，原油QDII收益水涨船高的同时也纷纷开启限购，并频发溢价风险警示。 6月25日晚间，易方达基金发布公告称，旗下原油LOF将于7月1日暂停申购赎回，及定期定额投资业 务。为该基金继19日暂停申购赎回，及定期定额投资业务后再次限购。 从基金净值走势来看，跟随油价大起大落趋势明显，6月9日以来，易方达原油LOF在连续两周累计涨近 15%，随后掉头向下，截至6月26日收盘微跌0.59%，周累计跌幅近9%。 交易人士对记者称，能源价格波动较大，与之挂钩的基金产品场内溢价不容忽视。且在全球地缘冲突以 及宏观环境不确定性增强的背景下，油价将维持震荡行情，投资者需注意控制风险，切勿盲目追高。 当前溢价回落，截至6月26日收盘，南方原油LOF和嘉实原油LOF的折溢率分别为2.9%、3.5%。 拉长周期看，今年以来原油QDII收益波动剧烈。据Wind统计，自2025年开年以来，易方达原油LOF累 计下跌12%，此外，华宝油气LOF、南方原油LOF也分别累计下跌4.6%、1.4%。 近期在地缘冲突扰动下，国际油价开启一轮上涨行情，原油QDII收益跟随上涨，本月初至今， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a stronger performance compared to the A-share market this year, leading to increased investor attention on the lower valuations of Hong Kong stocks [1] - The AH share premium index has fallen below 130, indicating a convergence in valuation between A-shares and H-shares, with instances of leading stocks like CATL having higher H-share prices than A-shares [1][2] - The decline in AH share premium is attributed to changes in investor sentiment towards value investing, capital market openness, and the transition of the macro economy towards high-quality development [2] Group 2 - The influx of mainland capital into the Hong Kong market through the Stock Connect program has significantly improved liquidity, with over 720 billion HKD net inflow this year, accounting for nearly one-sixth of the total since the program's inception [1] - The presence of high-quality internet technology companies in the Hong Kong market enhances its attractiveness, especially with significant investments in artificial intelligence [2] - The trend of leading A-share companies, such as CATL, listing in Hong Kong to expand overseas business aligns with market perceptions of how Chinese enterprises can break through, thereby boosting valuations of Hong Kong-listed companies [2][3] Group 3 - The increasing number of non-traditional financial and energy companies listing in Hong Kong suggests a future influx of quality Chinese assets, which will attract additional trading capital [3] - As the scarcity of companies in the Hong Kong market continues and southbound capital flows increase, the pricing power of mainland investors over Hong Kong stocks is expected to rise, potentially leading to further convergence of liquidity discounts [3]

6月以来，受关税前景改善的利好支持，国际油价节节走高。6月13日，以色列空袭伊朗引发原油单日一度暴涨逾13%，但随后 地缘政治风险溢价迅速回吐。市场正逐步形成共识：本次伊以冲突暂未触及产油核心设施，三季度油价走势将重新回归基本面 主线，焦点在于OPEC+增产遇阻、需求前景承压以及美联储降息预期的博弈。 OPEC+增产遇阻 需求前景仍受抑 持续的供需失衡导致原油价格承压，4月9日油价曾下探至55.12美元/桶，创2021年2月以来新低。随着全球关税局势的逐步缓和 以及季节性需求回暖，油价在5月5日触及56美元附近后开启了一波持续月余的反弹。随后，突发的伊以冲突短暂推升了供应中 断预期，刺激油价飙升。 地缘溢价迅速消退 供应命脉未被伤及 6月13日，以色列空袭伊朗，引发原油单日一度暴涨13%，创三年最大涨幅。然而，原油的暴涨行情仅维持12小时，收盘涨幅收 窄至5%。原因在于冲突到目前为止并未伤及原油供应的核心命脉。伊朗主要油田、出口终端、阿巴丹炼油厂及哈尔克岛油港均 运作正常，没有受实质破坏。OPEC+快速响应承诺，沙特能源部声明"已准备好动用300万桶/日闲置产能稳定市场"，阿联酋同 步启动富查伊拉港原油储备投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market has shown resilience and recovery, with major indices approaching historical highs, but the emergence of premium warnings from ETFs raises concerns about future market direction [1][4]. Market Performance - Since the beginning of 2025, the US stock market has experienced significant volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, but positive outcomes from US-China trade talks have boosted market confidence [3]. - The S&P 500 index has recovered its losses from earlier in the year and even approached historical highs in June, showcasing a year-to-date positive return [3]. - The technology sector, particularly driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, has been a key contributor to this rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging over 4% in a single day [3]. ETF Market Anomalies - Several ETF products, including those from Huaxia and Southern Fund, have issued multiple premium risk warnings, indicating that their market prices exceed actual net values [4]. - The premium rates for ETFs like Huaxia Nasdaq 100 ETF and Penghua Dow Jones ETF have surpassed 6%, reflecting a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the market [4]. - Factors contributing to this phenomenon include high investor demand for US ETFs, QDII quota restrictions, and foreign exchange limitations, leading to increased prices in the secondary market [4]. Earnings and Economic Indicators - The earnings season has shown strong performance, with the S&P 500 index reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in profits, significantly exceeding the market's previous expectations of 4% [5]. - Positive developments from Trump's Middle East visit have also contributed to optimistic market expectations through new orders and investment projects [5]. Risks and Uncertainties - Ongoing uncertainties in tariff negotiations pose a risk to corporate earnings, with potential for renewed market sell-offs if talks break down [6]. - Inflation remains a concern, with consumer price index (CPI) dropping to 2.3% in April, but consumer confidence surveys indicate rising inflation expectations [6]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is uncertain, as premature rate cuts could reignite inflation, while delayed actions may exacerbate recession risks [6]. Future Outlook - The US stock market may experience short-term fluctuations due to ETF premium issues and concerns over various uncertainties [7]. - Long-term prospects remain positive if global trade relations improve, corporate earnings continue to grow, and the Federal Reserve manages monetary policy effectively [7].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3340 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.27% from the previous trading day, supported by a weakening US dollar index which hit a four-year low at 97.449 [1][2] - The market is focused on two main variables: the impact of the latest developments in Iran nuclear negotiations on geopolitical risk premiums, and the upcoming US May PCE inflation data on June 27, which may reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar index is driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's emphasis on waiting for the impact of tariffs on inflation before making interest rate decisions, which has led to a market perception of a potential rate cut this year [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.287%, reflecting growing concerns about economic slowdown, further diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices is particularly evident in the current environment, with gold's relative value increasing for investors holding currencies like the euro and pound [3] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations remains a significant variable in gold pricing, with skepticism about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump [5][6] - The complexity of geopolitical risks is highlighted by the potential for both reduced safe-haven demand for gold due to the ceasefire and the retention of Iran's technical capabilities, which could lead to retaliatory actions [6] Group 4 - The upcoming US May PCE data is expected to show a decrease in core PCE year-on-year from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, potentially the lowest level since March 2021 [7] - If the PCE data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, further weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices [7] Group 5 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks, with a critical resistance level at $3355; failure to break this level may lead to further declines towards the $3300 support level [8] - Conversely, if geopolitical risks resurface or the PCE data is weak, gold prices could rebound above $3400 [8] Group 6 - Overall, while the weakening dollar provides short-term support for gold, geopolitical uncertainties and potential impacts from the PCE data limit the upside potential for gold prices [10]