流动性进一步宽松，贵金属板块展望 20250701 摘要 特朗普政府关税威胁及非农数据下滑曾引发市场波动，推动金价上涨， 但贸易紧张局势缓解后金价高位横盘。关注 2025 年下半年，预计流动 性宽松和风险偏好上行将继续支撑金价。 大美丽法案预计未来十年增加 2.4 万亿美元财政赤字，短期内加剧债务 压力并削弱美元信用，利好黄金等贵金属。美国国会预算办公室预测该 法案将显著增加财政支出，进一步加剧美元信用担忧。 短期投资建议关注受益于流动性宽松和风险偏好上行的贵金属与工业金 属组合，如黄金与铜或白银组合，并关注中报可能业绩超预期的标的， 如山东黄金等公司。 调降银行资本杠杆率（SLR）以刺激银行购买美债的空间有限。即使放 松监管，每年增加的购债规模也远小于未来几年的巨额财政支出，化债 效果可能不明显。 稳定币与美债需求绑定，可能带来短期限国库券购买需求，但长期美债 需求仍是重点。新增需求可能被高估，实际效果有待观察。渣打银行预 测到 2028 年稳定币规模可达 2 万亿美元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年贵金属市场的表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年上半年，黄金价格上涨了 24%，在 4 月 22 日达 ...

Group 1 - The "Big Beautiful" bill, which includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, narrowly passed the Senate with a vote of 51-50, requiring Vice President Pence's tie-breaking vote [1][2] - The bill's passage in the Senate highlights internal divisions within the Republican Party, with three Republican senators voting against it due to concerns over increased fiscal deficits and cuts to social security programs [2][3] - A recent Pew Research Center survey indicated that nearly half (49%) of American respondents oppose the "Big Beautiful" bill, reflecting a lack of broad public support [2] Group 2 - The Senate version of the "Big Beautiful" bill proposes significant cuts to Medicaid, which some House Republicans are unwilling to support, indicating ongoing resistance within the party [3] - The bill includes a provision to raise the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for five years, which has faced opposition from some Republican lawmakers [3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the Senate version of the bill will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and lead to an increase of 11.8 million uninsured individuals by 2034 [4] Group 3 - The bill reflects the Trump administration's legislative agenda, extending certain corporate tax benefits and injecting billions into military funding while significantly cutting foreign aid [4] - The renewable energy sector is expected to face increased costs of $4-7 billion over the next decade due to changes in the bill, which could pose a "survival crisis" for the industry [5] - The final version of the bill removed a proposed new consumption tax on imported components for wind and solar projects, but the overall impact on renewable energy remains negative according to industry leaders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate has paused the deliberation of the "Big Beautiful" bill due to significant internal divisions within the Republican Party, with efforts ongoing to secure enough votes for passage [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Process - The Senate's complex process requires handling all proposed amendments before a final vote on the bill can occur, with key amendments potentially influencing overall support [2]. - The Senate is expected to continue voting on numerous amendments, which are critical to determining the bill's fate [2]. Group 2: Internal Party Divisions - Key points of contention within the Republican Party include substantial cuts to social security spending, the retention of clean energy tax credits, and the overall fiscal deficit of the bill [1][2]. - Eight Republican senators are currently considered potential dissenters, with Rand Paul and Thom Tillis being the most prominent opponents [1]. Group 3: White House Involvement - The White House is actively lobbying for votes, with President Trump personally making calls and warning of historical tax increases if the bill fails [3]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is optimistic about the bill's approval in the near term, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune remains cautious about progress [3]. Group 4: Clean Energy Subsidies - The current version of the bill proposes significant reductions in subsidies for clean energy, which has led to dissatisfaction among some Republican senators [4]. - A proposed amendment aims to relax the completion deadline for projects seeking subsidies, but this could provoke backlash from fiscal conservatives [4]. Group 5: Healthcare Funding Controversies - The bill's proposed cuts to Medicaid have sparked controversy, particularly among rural representatives concerned about hospital closures [6]. - A Republican senator's amendment to increase funding for rural hospitals was rejected by Democrats, highlighting the contentious nature of healthcare provisions in the bill [6]. Group 6: Final Amendments and House Considerations - The Republican leadership is preparing a "last resort amendment" to balance internal party opinions before the final vote, which must also consider the House's acceptance of any changes [7]. - The House previously passed its version of the bill by a narrow margin, and the Senate's more aggressive cuts to Medicaid could complicate support from moderate Republicans in the House [7].

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,542.26 tons on June 30, with an increase of 18.8 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $36.33 per ounce on June 30, up 0.46%, with a daily high of $35.59 and a low of $36.33 [1][2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet expressed confidence in the progress of a significant bill aimed at comprehensive tax reform, which passed the Senate with a narrow margin [2] - The bill may lead to a substantial increase in the fiscal deficit by $3.8 trillion, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting demand for precious metals [2] - Anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2025, exceeding 60 basis points, is expected to support gold prices during periods of low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty [2]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors are diversifying their portfolios and reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over rising deficits and inflationary tariffs, which are diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. debt [2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds and Foreign Investment - The U.S. national debt has quadrupled to approximately $36 trillion in less than a decade, with public holdings around $29 trillion [3]. - In April, foreign capital saw a net outflow of $14.2 billion from U.S. Treasury bonds and the banking system, influenced by Trump's tariff policies [2][3]. - Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $807.7 billion and China at $757.2 billion [3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Fiscal Policy - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax cuts and spending measures will increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2]. - The Senate is expected to pass a bill that may save $500 billion by using alternative calculations that do not account for the extension of the 2017 tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Shift to European and Other Markets - European bonds, particularly German and French debt, are becoming more attractive to investors as U.S. deficits expand, with Germany maintaining a debt-to-GDP ratio below 100% [4]. - The market for German bonds is expected to strengthen, creating better opportunities for equity markets and increasing the issuance of risk-free German and pan-European bonds [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends in Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a long-term structural trend towards diversification rather than a sudden withdrawal [5]. - Concerns over U.S. risk premiums are anticipated to lead to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as investors demand higher returns for holding U.S. debt [6].

Group 1: Gold Market - Investors are closely monitoring trade negotiations as the deadline for Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" approaches, with indications that the negotiations may not be as severe as in April [2] - The proposed "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House on May 22 and narrowly passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28, with modifications requiring another House vote; the CBO predicts a $4.5 trillion revenue reduction and a $3.3 trillion increase in the fiscal deficit by 2034 [2] - Technically, gold has been in a correction phase since April 22, with a potential rebound if it stabilizes above $3,300, targeting $3,360 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Despite a verbal ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tensions remain high, with Trump threatening further military action against Iran and Iran halting inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 80%, with a 92.5% chance of a rate cut in September, increasing market bets on future rate cuts, which could boost oil demand [5] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, leading to potential oversupply in the oil market; if global economic conditions improve, it may bolster market confidence [5] - Technically, oil prices have shown a downward trend, with resistance at $67 and a potential drop to $60 if prices fall below $64 [5] Group 3: Nikkei 225 and Copper Market - The Nikkei 225 index has been on a strong upward trend, breaking the highest price since July 18, 2024, but caution is advised against chasing further gains [7] - Copper prices have been fluctuating since early April, with a potential shift in trend; support is noted at $4.88 and resistance at $5.06 [7]

智通财经APP获悉，根据无党派机构美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的最新估计，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 税收和支出方案将导致美国十年内赤字增加近3.3万亿美元。 美国国会预算办公室对所谓的"大而美法案"(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)的评估结果显示，与现行法律的 基准情况相比，到2034年，该法案将导致财政收入减少4.5万亿美元，支出减少1.2万亿美元。 根据共和党的要求，参议院的这项法案被评估为在十年内相较于现行政策基准可节省5076亿美元。共和 党议员一直试图利用这种会计手段永久性地延长特朗普2017年的所得税减免政策，并将其成本评估为 零。 根据美国联合税务委员会周六的估计，该法案包括价值4.5万亿美元的减税措施。 共和党人正在采用和解程序试图凭借简单多数票通过这项重大法案，但在该程序中使用现行政策基准来 衡量成本的做法史无前例。通常情况下，一项法案的成本是根据其在现行法律框架下对联邦预算的影响 来衡量的。但共和党人却想改变这一程序，他们假定现行政策无限期地保持不变。 该法案的成本一直是财政保守派面临的一大难题。由于议员们提出的修改要求相互矛盾，该法案在参议 院遭遇重重阻力。随后，该 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategy, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events. For example, the US core PCE data affects gold and stock markets, and policy changes in different countries impact commodity markets [13][21][37]. - Different markets have different outlooks. Some markets are expected to be bullish in the long - term but may face short - term fluctuations, while others are expected to be bearish or remain in a range - bound state [2][21][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, exceeding expectations. Inflationary pressure led to a lack of short - term motivation for the Fed to cut interest rates, causing gold prices to decline on Friday. Geopolitical risks did not intensify. Short - term gold prices are expected to be weak with potential for further decline [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill has entered a short - term deadlock. Although it is expected to pass, the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term due to the split within the Republican Party and the expected increase in the deficit [15][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US May core PCE price index growth was higher than expected. The market's risk appetite remains high under the support of the interest - rate cut cycle and upcoming tax - cut bills. However, the current position of US stocks does not fully account for negative factors such as tariff negotiations and economic downturn, so there is a risk of correction [19][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China declined in May. Treasury bond futures rose as a reaction to the weak stock market. The central bank's support for market liquidity is a key factor for the bullish view, but the market may face short - term fluctuations. Long positions can be held, and buying on dips is recommended [22][24][25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The profits of industrial enterprises from January to May turned negative, but the stock market has been strong recently. The divergence between the market and fundamentals is increasing. If policies can promote economic recovery, the market will be more stable; otherwise, the sustainability of the market rally will be reduced. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [26][28][29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - US coal production increased from January to May 2025. Steam coal prices strengthened, with the 5500K coal price remaining stable and low - calorie coal prices rising slightly. High - temperature weather in June improved demand, and supply was slightly affected by safety inspections. It is expected that the demand pressure will ease in July [30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The air - conditioner production orders in July turned negative year - on - year. The iron ore price rebounded slightly this week. Although there is pressure on port inventories in July due to the shipping rush in June, this negative factor has been partially priced in. The overall trend is expected to be range - bound, and steel mill profits may be slightly compressed [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. Palm oil production data in Malaysia shows mixed trends, and exports are expected to increase. Palm oil is expected to remain range - bound, and soybean oil is also expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as Indian restocking, US soybean weather, and US biofuel policies [33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - A cold front caused frost in the sugar - cane producing areas of southern Brazil. The sugar - cane crushing volume in the first half of June in southern Brazil is expected to decrease by 19.3% year - on - year, and sugar production is expected to decrease by 19.9%. The international sugar market is under supply pressure, but the external market has shown signs of stabilization, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The drought - affected area of US cotton remained at 3% in the week ending June 24. Indian cotton planting area increased slightly. US cotton export contracts declined. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound state, and attention should be paid to the USDA's actual planting area report [40][42][43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills was close to 2.5 million tons last week. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased. Imported soybean costs declined, and soybean meal is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price of US soybeans and soybean meal futures are expected to be supported at certain levels, and attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and inventory reports [44][46]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Africa imposed temporary safeguard measures on imported steel flat - rolled products. The production of white goods in July decreased year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded, but the profit margin declined. The steel market may rebound slightly in the short term but faces medium - term pressure [47][49][50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The growth progress of corn in different regions varies. The spot price of corn is likely to strengthen, but significant price increases may require accelerated inventory depletion. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts when the production situation is clearer [52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch narrowed. The substitution effect needs further attention. It is recommended to wait and see due to complex influencing factors [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina inventory increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the weighted index declined slightly. The short - term futures price is expected to be strong due to low inventory and warehouse receipts [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - India plans to take measures to address copper supply risks. A new copper project in Canada has released resource data. Short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and the US dollar may continue to weaken. The domestic copper inventory situation is divided. The copper market is expected to be range - bound at a high level, and caution is needed when chasing long positions [55][57]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhongkuang Resources plans to invest in a lithium salt production project. The short - term lithium price is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to avoid short positions or shift to the LC2511 contract and look for buying opportunities on dips [58][59]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon futures contract rebounded, possibly related to policy news. The supply is expected to be in surplus in July. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and consider positive spreads between contracts [60][61]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A large silicon enterprise in Xinjiang suddenly cut production. The industry's production situation is complex. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [62][63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's products are suitable for low - altitude aircraft power scenarios. Nickel prices rebounded last week. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron are expected to be weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [64][65][66]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The short - term supply and demand of lead are weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply and demand in the long - term. It is recommended to look for buying opportunities on dips and pay attention to positive spreads between contracts [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was in contango, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc market may rise in the short term but faces a surplus in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see, protect existing short positions, and consider positive spreads between contracts [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EUA carbon price fluctuated last week. The short - term carbon price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to European weather and geopolitical situations [71][72][73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July. The number of US oil rigs decreased. The oil price has returned to near the pre - conflict level, and the risk premium may remain in the third quarter. The oil price is expected to be range - bound [73][74][75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder increased, but the trading volume was low. The PVC market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factories' export prices were mostly stable. The industry plans to cut production in July, which will relieve supply pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong had minor fluctuations. The supply was limited due to enterprise maintenance, and the demand was relatively stable. The futures price rebounded, but the rebound height may be limited [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp stabilized. The futures price rebounded slightly. The pulp market is expected to be range - bound [81][82]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The Antwerp port was severely disrupted by strikes, causing delays for nearly 50 merchant ships. The spot freight rate is showing signs of peaking. The short - term decline of the EC2508 contract is limited, but the return on long positions is also limited [83][84][85].

金十数据6月30日讯，据外媒报道，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的最新估算，参议院版本的特朗普税 收与支出法案将在十年内使美国赤字增加近3.3万亿美元。应共和党要求，该法案还以现行政策为基线 测算出十年间可节省5076亿美元。共和党议员试图通过这种会计手段，将特朗普2017年所得税减免政策 永久化，并声称此举不会增加财政负担。通常法案成本应根据现行法律对联邦预算的影响测算，但共和 党试图通过假设现行政策无限期延续来修改测算规则。参议院少数党领袖舒默周日表示："共和党尽可 在纸面上玩弄预算把戏，但数万亿美元债务带来的现实后果无法掩盖。" CBO：参议院版"大而美"法案将增加3.3万亿美元债务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, which has passed procedural voting in the U.S. Senate, is expected to implement a significant portion of President Trump's policy agenda, potentially impacting the U.S. capital markets and global investors profoundly [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. federal government's debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, leading to a larger fiscal deficit and necessitating more government bond issuance [7]. - The increased fiscal deficit may weaken the international purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, further affecting the dollar's exchange rate [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley predicts that the bill's provisions may extend key tax cuts beneficial to individuals and corporations, but the rising U.S. deficit raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, leading to a bearish outlook on the dollar [7]. - The bill's fiscal stimulus and anticipated interest rate hikes are expected to benefit financial stocks, particularly banks, due to expanded loan spreads enhancing profitability [9]. - Key sectors such as industrials, communication services, and energy may benefit from tax provisions aimed at promoting growth, although rising deficits could lead to prolonged high interest rates, increasing borrowing costs and suppressing asset valuations [9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - The bill significantly reduces subsidies for clean energy sources like wind and solar, which could adversely affect renewable energy companies reliant on policy support [11]. - Adjustments to investment tax credits for energy storage facilities may provide marginal benefits to the U.S. large-scale storage industry, potentially benefiting domestic companies with strong U.S. market presence, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Canadian Solar, and CATL [11]. - The expansion of U.S. fiscal policy and private sector recovery is expected to drive global asset valuations upward, with the A-share market likely to rise amid a weak dollar trend and supportive policies [11].