Core Viewpoint - Major economies are trapped in a "debt addiction," with expansive fiscal policies leading them into a prolonged "debt test" [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - A global sell-off of long-term bonds began in late August, originating from Europe, with France's government facing a confidence vote raising doubts about its fiscal tightening plans [1][3] - The UK and Japan also contributed to the turmoil, with the UK facing budget concerns and Japan experiencing political instability, leading to rising long-term interest rates [1][4][5] - The UK’s 30-year bond yield reached its highest level since 1998, while Japan, France, and Germany also saw long-term rates rise to multi-decade highs [1][6] Group 2: Fiscal Challenges - The current market volatility indicates that fiscal expansion combined with rising inflation is becoming a core driver of sovereign debt risk [2] - Persistent high deficits have become the norm for major economies, with France not achieving a budget surplus since 1974 and Italy last achieving one nearly a century ago [7][8] Group 3: Structural Issues - The increase in long-term bond yields is attributed to both cyclical and structural factors, with inflation being a key determinant of short-term interest rates [14][15] - Structural "debt addiction" has emerged post-pandemic, with rising debt levels leading to two significant challenges: the increasing correlation between sovereign bonds and equities, and the rising long-term yield risk due to high government debt levels [17] - Aging populations and high debt burdens contribute to unsustainable fiscal pressures, exemplified by France's debt-to-GDP ratio of 114% and a significant portion of its deficit being foundational and difficult to reduce [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trading environment has deteriorated, and the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has further increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold holdings, providing long - term support for gold. Precious metals are expected to show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and Trump interferes with the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][20]. - The steel industry's policy expectations remain positive, and the pre - National Day rigid demand restocking expectation can support the double - coking market. However, factors such as the increase in coking coal inventory, high hot metal production, and the expectation of coke price cuts will put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - The SC crude oil night session fell 1.67%. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has raised concerns about supply disruptions. The future trend depends on OPEC's production increase [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: Federal Reserve's Waller stated that the Fed should cut interest rates at the next meeting and may implement multiple rate cuts, with the pace depending on data performance [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce ruled that US fiber optic producers and exporters' trade - mode change for exporting relevant single - mode fibers to China constitutes an evasion of anti - dumping measures. Starting from September 4, 2025, the current anti - dumping tax rates for non - dispersion - shifted single - mode fibers imported from the US will be applied to relevant cut - off wavelength - shifted single - mode fibers [7]. - **Industry News**: FTSE Russell announced quarterly review changes to indices such as the FTSE China 50 on September 3, to take effect after the close on September 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and remove China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, Guodian NARI, and Wanhua Chemical [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.56%, the US dollar index increased by 0.38%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.07%, London gold spot increased by 2.34%, London silver increased by 1.04%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.45%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 2.07%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 3.16%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 0.45%, and CBOT wheat decreased by 2.42%. CBOT corn remained unchanged [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The US major indices rose. The previous trading day saw a correction in stock index futures, with the defense and military industry sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.40 trillion yuan. The A - share market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom". The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, with more technology - growth components, are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 indices, with more dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive. The stock index has risen significantly since July, showing short - term adjustment signs but with a high probability of a medium - to - long - term upward trend [11][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.755%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The market is concerned about the large debt scales of Japan and the US, and the US bond yield fluctuates. Although the economic sentiment level continues to expand, the real estate market is still in adjustment. The bond futures prices have stabilized, and attention should be paid to the impact of the equity market on the bond market sentiment [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 1.67% at night. The US has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified attacks on each other's energy infrastructure. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts affects oil demand. The US crude oil inventory has decreased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.38% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefin plant operating rate increased. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is expected to be short - term bullish [15][16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber showed a narrow - range oscillation. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the supply is expected to increase periodically. The demand side is in the off - season, and the consumption stimulus policy provides some support. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [17]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The spot market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the stabilization of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The supply - demand repair is ongoing, and the market focuses on the supply - side contraction. The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, and future attention should be paid to the autumn consumption and policy changes [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals, especially gold and silver, are strong. The decrease in US job vacancies, Trump's attempt to interfere with the Federal Reserve, and the expectation of an interest rate cut are all beneficial to precious metals. The long - term driving force for gold remains supported, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and home - appliance industries have different trends, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21][22]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by sentiment, with high volatility. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The inventory has decreased slightly. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid rise, but there is still room for price increase if the inventory is depleted [24]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The iron ore price is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the future [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The rebar performs weaker than hot - rolled coils. The short - term market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the trading logic focuses on fundamental changes [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures were weak at night. The policy expectation is positive, but factors such as inventory and price cuts put pressure on the market, resulting in a high - level oscillatory trend [3][27][28]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Protein meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the reduction in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations in the short term [29]. - **Edible Oils**: Edible oil futures were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, while exports increased. The market fundamentals have limited changes, and the oil market is expected to continue oscillating [30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has entered the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories. However, the import and new - season sugar supply may put pressure on prices. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the international market and show a weak - oscillatory trend [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures rose slightly. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the market focus is shifting to the new - cotton purchase. The Xinjiang cotton production is high, and attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton. The cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated and fell 3.04%. The short - term market is expected to be supported by the stabilization of the US - bound shipping market and the MSC's National Day suspension plan. In the medium term, it may return to the game of off - season freight rates. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays on shipping companies' capacity regulation [33][34].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in job vacancies in the US, which fell to 7.181 million in July, the lowest in 10 months, indicating a slowdown in economic activity and consumer spending [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity across most regions of the US has remained unchanged, with many households' wages not keeping pace with rising prices, leading to stagnant or declining consumer spending [1] - There has been a trend of increasing minimum wage standards across 12 provinces in China this year, with most provinces raising their monthly minimum wage by approximately 8%-12%, resulting in all 31 provinces having a minimum wage exceeding 2000 yuan [1] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, gold and silver prices are rising, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. The reduction in job vacancies is seen as a bullish factor for precious metals [2][17] - The dual-fuel market shows weak performance, with coal inventory increasing and steel production remaining stable, indicating a potential pressure on prices due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][23] - The oil market is experiencing a decline, influenced by geopolitical tensions and changes in US inventory levels, with total US crude oil inventory decreasing to 822.493 million barrels [4][12] Group 3 - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's Waller suggests potential interest rate cuts in upcoming meetings, indicating a shift in monetary policy that could impact various sectors [5] - Domestically, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has ruled against US fiber optic exporters, indicating ongoing trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny [6] - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China 50 index, which will take effect on September 19, impacting the composition of the index and potentially influencing market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% mark [2] - The sell-off has affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, reaching new highs since the financial crisis [2][4] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5%, marking the first time since July, while the 10-year yield has climbed to 4.291% [2] Group 2 - The U.K. 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have also hit their highest levels since 2011 and 2009, respectively [4] - Japan's 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 3.28%, the highest on record, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.69%, a new high since 1999 [7] Group 3 - The sell-off is attributed to a combination of massive corporate bond supply, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [8] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with significant corporate bond issuance expected, estimated at $150 billion to $180 billion in the U.S. alone this month [10][11] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8][14] Group 4 - The bond market's turmoil reflects deep concerns about the fiscal health of developed economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related spending [12] - Historical trends indicate that September is typically a poor month for long-duration bonds, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade [13] - Technical liquidity factors are also contributing to the market's challenges, with significant cash withdrawals expected in September [13]

Core Viewpoint - The global bond market is experiencing significant sell-off pressure, leading to a surge in long-term bond yields across multiple countries [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has risen to 5%, marking the first increase since July [2] - Japan's 30-year bond yield has reached a historic high, while the 20-year bond yield has climbed to its highest level since 1999 [3] - Germany's 30-year bond yield increased by 2 basis points to 3.4340%, the highest level since July 2011 [4] - The UK 30-year bond yield briefly reached 5.735%, the highest since May 1998, with the 20-year and 10-year yields also hitting their highest levels since 1998 and January 2025, respectively [4] - France's 30-year bond yield is nearing 4.5%, the highest since 2009 [5] Group 2: Underlying Causes of Market Turmoil - The turmoil in the global bond market is attributed to heightened investor concerns regarding national debt levels [6] - In the US, the federal government's deficit for the current fiscal year is projected at $1.7 trillion, slightly down from $1.83 trillion in fiscal 2024, but still at a high level [6] - Concerns about the effectiveness of Trump's tariff policies in reducing the deficit have been raised, with significant uncertainty surrounding future revenue estimates [6] - In France, a no-confidence vote regarding the government's debt reduction plan is expected, with predictions that Prime Minister Borne may not survive the vote [6] - In the UK, recent cabinet reshuffles have failed to alleviate investor concerns about the country's fiscal situation, characterized by high borrowing and sluggish economic growth [6] Group 3: Political Uncertainty and Debt Sustainability - Political uncertainty in Japan, particularly regarding Prime Minister Kishida's leadership, is contributing to investor anxiety [7] - The global sustainability of debt is becoming a deeper concern, with investors demanding higher risk premiums for long-term bonds [7] - Analysts warn of a vicious cycle where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn worsen debt dynamics [7] - The International Monetary Fund predicts that global public debt could exceed 95% of GDP by 2025, complicating efforts for fiscal consolidation [7]

Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% mark [1][9] - The sell-off has affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, reaching new highs since the financial crisis [1][3] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5%, and the 10-year yield has climbed to 4.291%, leading to a 0.7% drop in the S&P 500 index, marking its worst single-day performance since August 1 [1] Group 2 - The U.K. 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have also hit their highest levels since 2011 and 2009, at 3.41% and 4.51% respectively [3] - Japan's 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 3.28%, the highest on record, with the 20-year yield also reaching 2.69%, a new high since 1999 [6] Group 3 - The sell-off is driven by a massive supply of corporate bonds, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [9][10] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with Wall Street predicting a corporate bond issuance of $150 billion to $180 billion this month, potentially exceeding last year's $172.5 billion [9][10] Group 4 - The global sell-off reflects deep concerns about the fiscal health of developed economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related spending [11] - There is a shift in market sentiment, with investors needing reassurance from governments to regain confidence in their bonds [11] Group 5 - Technical liquidity factors and historical trends also contribute to the current market turmoil, with September historically being a poor month for long-duration bonds [12][13] - Predictions indicate a significant liquidity drain in the U.S. market, potentially withdrawing nearly $200 billion from the banking system on September 15 due to various fiscal factors [13] Group 6 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [14] - Strong employment data could heighten concerns over prolonged high rates, while weak data may reinforce expectations for rate cuts, impacting the bond market's recovery [14]

Core Viewpoint - A global bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological threshold of 5% [2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sell-off has affected government bond markets across the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, with yields rising significantly, including the U.K. and France reaching their highest levels since the financial crisis [1][13]. - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5%, marking the first time since July, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.291% [1]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.7%, its worst single-day performance since August 1, due to the negative sentiment in the bond market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - A surge in corporate bond issuance is contributing to the sell-off, with predictions of $150 billion to $180 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds being issued in September, which is expected to exceed last year's figures [7][10]. - The influx of corporate bonds is providing investors with higher-yield alternatives, diverting funds away from government bonds [7][10]. - September is traditionally a challenging month for long-term bondholders, exacerbated by the return of traders from summer vacations and the influx of new corporate bond supply [7][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Focus - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7][20]. - Current expectations suggest a 92% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, with the employment report being a critical variable for market direction [20]. - Strong employment data could heighten concerns over prolonged high rates, while weak data may reinforce rate cut expectations, providing relief to the struggling bond market [20].

Group 1 - The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US rose from 48.0 in July to 48.7 in August, but still below the market expectation of 49.0, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction [1] - The New Orders Index increased from 47.1 to 51.4, while the Production Orders Index significantly dropped from 51.4 to 47.8 [1] - US construction spending in July decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline, which has raised expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the upcoming US employment report, which may further influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [4] - A recent court ruling stated that former President Trump lacked the authority to implement most of his tariff policies, potentially affecting nearly 70% of US imports if upheld [4] - If the ruling stands, only 16% of imports would incur tariffs, leading to lower than expected federal revenue and potentially widening the fiscal deficit [4] Group 3 - The US yield curve has steepened, with short-term rates reflecting rate cut expectations while long-term rates have risen due to concerns over increasing fiscal deficits [6] - Major US stock indices declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.55%, the Nasdaq down 0.82%, and the S&P 500 down 0.69%, while Nvidia and Tesla saw declines of 1.95% and 1.35% respectively [6] - Chinese stocks performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.52%, driven by significant gains in companies like Baozun and NIO [6] Group 4 - Concerns over fiscal deficits in Europe have increased, with criticism of France's proposed budget freeze and Germany's infrastructure investment plans [7] - Eurozone inflation in August was reported at 2.1%, slightly above market expectations, reinforcing the view that the European Central Bank will maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting [7] - The US dollar index has risen above 98.45, supported by a weaker euro and yen amid global economic concerns [7] Group 5 - Gold prices have risen due to strong demand from ETFs and central banks, although adjustments occurred following a rebound in the US dollar index [9] - The US stock market stabilized, with Google winning a significant antitrust case, allowing it to retain its Chrome browser business without divestiture [11] - Following the ruling, stocks of Google and Apple saw significant after-hours gains of 6.76% and 3.08% respectively, leading to a rebound in US stock futures [12]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's second-largest pension fund, the Australian Retirement Trust (ART), has reduced its holdings in U.S. bonds due to concerns that Washington's policies may lead to inflation [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market - The ART has expressed disappointment with U.S. bonds and has adopted a dynamic asset allocation strategy to decrease its exposure [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 4.2984% and the 30-year yield rising by 6.7 basis points to 4.9883% [3][8]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies are contributing to inflationary pressures [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Hedge funds have remained cautious regarding U.S. equities, continuing to sell rather than participate in the market's recent gains [3][6]. - The market sentiment is reflected in the performance of major U.S. indices, which saw declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.55% and the Nasdaq down 0.82% [3]. - There is a growing trend among large institutions, including pension funds in Asia, to reassess their holdings in U.S. assets due to concerns over the U.S. credit rating and the independence of the Federal Reserve [5][6]. Group 3: Global Bond Market - Long-term bond yields are rising globally, with the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.69% and the French 30-year yield surpassing 4.50% for the first time since 2011 [8]. - The rising yields in other markets indicate potential vulnerabilities that could impact global financial stability [7][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that nearly half of the years in the past 20 have seen negative returns for the U.S. stock market in September, raising concerns about market performance [7]. - The current high levels of stock ownership relative to disposable income among U.S. investors could signal potential risks if economic growth slows significantly [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - International gold prices hit a new record high, and the A - share market had an adjustment. Market sentiment was affected by various factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence, Trump's tariff issues, and economic data from different countries [3][4]. - Different commodity markets showed diverse trends. For example, some commodities were expected to be in a supply - demand imbalance, while others were affected by production changes, policy adjustments, and market sentiment [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and Trump called for a strong interest - rate cut. Gold prices rose to a new high due to concerns about the Fed's independence and tariff issues. The market should pay attention to the upcoming non - farm data and the increase in long - short games [14][15]. - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Multiple high - ranking Japanese LDP officials expressed their intention to resign, and concerns about the UK economy intensified. The dollar index rose significantly in the short term, and market risk appetite declined [20]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: The number of new A - share accounts in August was 2.65 million, with a significant year - on - year and month - on - month increase. The A - share market adjusted on September 2, and the subsequent trend depends on major events [22][23]. - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump planned to appeal the global tariff case to the US Supreme Court. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract, and the US Treasury Secretary planned to interview Fed chair candidates. The US stock market adjusted, and investors should pay attention to volatility [25][26][27]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond trading in September. The bond market was in a volatile trend, and it was not recommended to chase long positions after the market rose [29][30]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased to 65%. The US weekly export inspection data met expectations, and the domestic soybean meal supply was sufficient but demand was also strong [32]. - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: The cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 72.8% as of August 30. The growth progress of US cotton was slow, but the good - quality rate was high. The external market was under seasonal supply pressure, and the Zhengzhou cotton market was expected to be in a short - term shock [34][35][36]. - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, and Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. It was recommended to go long on palm oil at low prices [37][39]. - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Port coal prices were weakly falling. Due to weak demand and transportation restrictions during the parade, coal prices were expected to continue the seasonal decline but be supported at around 650 yuan [40]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: Grangex announced the restart of Sydvaranger mining. The overall raw material market was under pressure, but it was expected to be in a shock market in September [41]. - **Agricultural Products (Red Dates)**: The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market was stable. The fundamentals of red dates were not significantly changed, and it was recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch enterprises in different regions had losses. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the price difference between rice flour and starch was at a low level [45]. - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: The成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. The spot price of corn was strengthening, but the upward space of the futures price was limited [45][46]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Argentina approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The supply - demand imbalance caused by supply reduction might be reflected in high - frequency data in September, and it was recommended to try long positions and pay attention to positive spreads [48][49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was cancelled. The polysilicon price was expected to be between 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and it was recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [50][53]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The LME lead market was weak, while the domestic lead market's supply was expected to tighten and demand to improve. It was recommended to go long on lead at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [54]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: The production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was slowly increasing, and the market was expected to be in a short - term shock between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: The LME zinc market was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc market was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads [59][60]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: The copper market was affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and industry policies. The copper price was expected to be supported in the short term, and it was recommended to be long on a short - term basis [65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price was firm, and the nickel price was expected to be in a range - bound shock. It was recommended to go long at low prices [66][67]. - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Kazakhstan's crude oil production in August increased by 2% month - on - month. The oil price was expected to be in a shock [68]. - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: The CEA price was in a short - term shock and weakening trend [69][70]. - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: The PX price was in a short - term shock adjustment [72][73]. - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: The PTA market was in a short - term shock adjustment with improved fundamentals [74][75]. - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda spot price was expected to be in a high - level shock [76][77]. - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The pulp market was in a weak shock [77][78]. - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The PVC market was expected to be in a shock [79][80]. - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The styrene market was in a weak operation recently [81][83]. - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: The bottle chip market had new capacity plans, and the demand was moving towards the off - season [84][85]. - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: The soda ash market was weakening, and it was recommended to short at high prices [86][87]. - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The float glass market was in a weak trend, and it was recommended to focus on arbitrage [88][89]. - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates)**: The container freight rate market was under supply pressure, and the price was expected to be in a short - term shock. It was recommended to short on emotional rallies in October and long after the price decline in December [91][92].