Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market has shown signs of recovery since 2025, with a notable increase in investor participation, although the performance of newly listed stocks has been mixed, as evidenced by the case of New Qi An [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 10, 2025, 32 companies have listed on the Hong Kong main board, with 9 of them (28.13%) experiencing a drop in share price on their first trading day, compared to 36.8% for the entire year of 2024 [1]. - New Qi An's stock price surged by 72.49% in the dark market before its listing, but it opened at a 60.05% premium and closed the first day with a gain of only 21.43% [1][3]. - On the second trading day, New Qi An's stock price fell to 17.76 HKD, dropping below its issue price of 18.9 HKD, marking a decline of approximately 6% [3]. Group 2: IPO Structure and Allocation - New Qi An's IPO involved issuing 10,585,400 shares, with 10% allocated for public sale and 90% for international placement. However, the public offering was oversubscribed by 149.37 times, while the international placement was only 0.93 times [5][6]. - The actual allocation for public sale was only 15.7%, significantly lower than the expected 50% due to a "routine reallocation" strategy, indicating a preference to keep shares concentrated among a few investors [5][6]. - The top three underwriters hold 60.52% of the actual tradable shares, suggesting a high concentration of ownership that could influence stock price movements [7][8]. Group 3: Company Overview and Financial Performance - New Qi An is a manufacturer of glycine and sucralose, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from international markets, accounting for nearly 80% of sales in 2024 [10][12]. - The company has experienced revenue fluctuations, with reported revenues of 761.5 million RMB in 2022, 447 million RMB in 2023, and 569 million RMB in 2024, largely due to declining product prices [13]. - Recent trends indicate a recovery in product prices, particularly for sucralose, which has seen a price increase of 150% from July 2024 to March 2025, benefiting New Qi An's financial outlook [14].

王家骏透露，货物海运到美国通常需要两周以上的时间，有等不及的美国客户提出要发空运，但考虑到 空运成本太高，运量也远小于海运，最后只能作罢。 特朗普政府挑起关税战不但扰乱了国际贸易秩序，其"回旋镖"也反噬着美国，不少美国零售商库存告 急。 浙江奥度日用品有限公司是多家国际知名保温杯品牌的代工厂，该公司总经理王家骏近日对观察者 网"未来方法论"表示，美国人用的保温杯大约70%来自浙江永康。 5月12日，随着中美互降关税的消息传来，美国客户的催单邮件涌入奥度公司的邮箱，因关税而暂停的 订单一下子全恢复了。 "客户那边急得很。"王家骏说。他表示，这两个月因为关税战，美国超市的库存"全部都卖空了"，很多 美国人现在是一有风吹草动就囤货，仿佛"明天地球就要毁灭"。 王家骏表示，美国客户会趁90天的关税窗口期疯狂补货，"这三个月肯定会爆单的，百分之百会爆单。" "未来方法论"是观察者网2025年倾力打造的深度视频栏目，通过"实地探访+深度对话"相结合的形式， 直击科技与产业最前沿，用视听语言忠实记录中国企业在机遇与挑战、困惑与创新、痛点与突破交织下 的真实历程，并深挖表层问题之下的隐忧、机会与趋势，力求为中国产业的破局发展 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The World Bank's "Global Economic Outlook" indicates that U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainties will significantly pressure global economies, lowering global growth from 2.7% to 2.3% for the year, compared to 2.8% last year. U.S. growth is revised down from 2.3% to 1.4% [2] - The trade war has caused global trade to stagnate in the second half of the year, impacting supply chains, but a recession is not expected. The effects of Trump's tariff policies continue, leading to increased uncertainty and market volatility [2] - Technically, gold has been fluctuating, with a focus on resistance at $3342. A drop below $3300 could accelerate declines [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Iran's Security Council warns that any Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities will be met with retaliation, strengthening Iran's resolve to develop nuclear weapons. U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations show progress but remain contentious, with the U.S. demanding a halt to uranium enrichment [4] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day, continuing a trend for four months. However, five members are not meeting their production targets, with actual increases at 180,000 barrels per day against a planned 310,000 [4] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, contributing to higher oil prices [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Oil prices extended gains, reaching a high of $66.25, with a quick pullback observed. Support is noted at $64.40, and a drop below this level could lead to further declines towards $63.60 [6] - Copper prices are experiencing a tight range after volatile trading, with support at $4.77 and resistance at $4.90. A break below support could accelerate declines, while a breakout above resistance could lead to further bullish momentum [8] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has broken through resistance at 37800 and is in a bullish trend, recently touching 38400 before a quick pullback. The upward trend is expected to continue, with resistance at 38700 [9]

直到现在，特朗普还没有意识到中国正在超越美国。 看着特朗普第二任期统治下的美国，美国媒体已经开始着急，他们发出提醒，希望特朗普政府能够重视 起来，不要再继续错误行为了。 特朗普二次"入宫"的政策，真的错了吗？ 从特朗普上台开始，他的核心只有一个：利益。他喊着"MAGA（让美国再次伟大）"的口号，做的全是 让自己赚得盆满钵满的事情。 上任前两个月，特朗普践行自己在竞选时期的承诺：改善国内非法移民的情况、签署各种政令、与马斯 克一起，对各部门下手，做的是"节流"的事情、推动俄乌停火等等。 本以为特朗普此任期真的会就"MAGA"展开行动，然而，上任的第三个月，特朗普就暴露了自己的目 的。 就连特朗普所在的共和党，内部也出现了不赞同的声音。更别说这项政策给美国带来了严重的危机，许 多铁杆盟友因此开始考虑这段关系。 简而言之，关税能够给美国带来多少收入暂且不论，特朗普政府已经开始在短短几个月时间内遭受内外 夹击了。 对于特朗普政府来说，唯一超出其预料的就是中国。中国从推出"对等关税"开始就持强烈反对态度，但 特朗普也认为，中国虽然反对，但迟早会接受自己的政策。 他发动了关税战，称关税会让美国好起来，还喊话希望美国民众" ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation that is reshaping the global innovation landscape and economic structure [1] - Chinese companies are transitioning from being followers to leaders in the face of globalization challenges, significantly impacting both the Chinese and global economies [1] - The "Future Methodology" video series aims to provide insights into the rise of strategic emerging industries, the transformation of traditional industries, and to serve as a valuable reference for China's industrial development [1] Group 2 - The first episode of the "Future Methodology" will focus on foreign trade enterprises affected by the tariff war, specifically in Yongkang, Zhejiang, known for its precision manufacturing and large hardware industry chain [2] - Yongkang is recognized as the largest production and export base for thermal cups and kettles in China and globally, with many international brands relying on its manufacturing capabilities [2] - The article highlights the challenges faced by Yongkang's export-oriented enterprises due to the tariff war and their strategies for survival and competitiveness in an uncertain future [2]

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货6月9日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,954.6 | 1,920.0 | 1,948.6 | 1,941.0 | -6.0 | -0.3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 专题报告 宏观 关税战风险暂缓，抢出口成色如何 摘要 5 月中美关税战有所缓和，但未来仍然存在较大变数。无论是处 于政治目的还是经济目的，特朗普需要关税作为武器来创造业绩以及 补充财政。特朗普的"大而美"法案包含把债务上限提高 4 万亿美元 的条款，目前已经在众议院通过，其能否在参议院通过将对特朗普关 税政策的激烈程度有较大影响。若"大而美"法案顺利通过，特朗普 政府的财政绳索放松，其关税政策预计可能会稍微让步。但若"大而 美"法案受阻，特朗普将将关税政策作为其扩张财政收入的主要抓 手，其激烈程度可能有所加剧。 关税战暂缓推动抢出口，外需改善带动制造业 PMI 环比回升。5 月制造业 PMI 环比回升。生产方面，PMI 生产指数回升 0.9 个点至 50.7，明显高于需求指数 0.6 个点的反弹幅度，也高于季节性。需求 方面，新订单指数回升 0.6 个点，而新出口订单指数回升 2.8 个点， 这说明本月的需求改善背后主要是外需支撑。不过我们注意到产成品 库存指数延续下降趋势，继续大幅回落 0.8 个点，反应了企业对未来 需求的担忧。 尽管 ...

——2025 年 5 月贸易数据解读 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 根据海关总署公布的数据，以美元计价，2025 年 5 月出口额同比增长 4.8%，增速比 4 月低 3.3 个 百分点；其中，5 月对美出口同比下降 34.5%，降幅比上月扩大 13.5 个百分点；5 月进口额同比下降 3.4%，降幅比 4 月扩大 3.2 个百分点；其中，5 月自美进口同比为-18.1%，降幅比 4 月扩大 4.3 个百分 点。 一、5 月出口同比增速回落，符合市场预期，主要源于高关税影响下，当月对美出口降幅扩大；与 此同时，美国发动全球贸易战后，近期外需整体呈现走弱态势；最后，上年同期出口基数偏高，也在下 拉今年 5 月出口增速。5 月出口保持正增长，继续展现较强韧性，主要拉动力有三个：一是 5 月中美发 布联合声明，关税战降温带动新一轮"对美抢出口"；在美国全球"对等关税"暂缓期内，我国出口企 业面向美国之外市场的"抢出口"效应仍在发酵；出口市场多元化取得进展。 以人民币计价，5 月出口、进口额同比增速分别为 6.3%和-2.1%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要 源于过去一年中人民币对美元有所贬值。 以美元计价，5 月出口额同 ...

这记重拳让白宫措手不及。五角大楼最新数据显示，F-35战机每架需稀土417公斤，而中国重稀土精炼技术垄断全球，美国连夜调集的澳洲稀土矿，纯度 差到连导弹制导系统都用不了。"现在得用三倍原料才能炼出合格品，成本直接飙42%！"洛马公司工程师在推特上匿名吐槽。 更要命的是科技反制。特朗普当年封锁12项核心技术，结果中国转身拉起"去美化联盟"。欧盟半导体设备商ASML高管私下承认："我们给中企的光刻 机，现在连荷兰海关都查不出芯片流向。"柏林报告显示，中国对美技术出口占比暴跌31%，反倒是东盟国家拿到中国28纳米芯片订单暴增143%。 "把稀土单子拿来，我亲自签字！" 伦敦会议室内，美国商务部长卢特尼克抹着额头的汗，对着卫星电话吼。6月9日这场美外经贸磋商，还没开场就闻到火药味——对方代表团直接甩出稀土 出口管制清单，17种关键材料赫然在列，美国军工复合体的命门被精准掐住。 关税战成了回旋镖。特朗普对3700亿中国商品加税，中国反手就瞄准美国农业带。爱荷华州农场主老詹姆斯看着仓库里发霉的大豆直跺脚："中国买家消 失后，豆价跌穿成本线，这他娘的是经济战还是自杀？"密歇根汽车工人更惨，通用汽车底特律工厂因中国零部件断供 ...

本周迎来CPI数据！就业市场和关税战将会如何博弈？黄金如何布局？阿汤哥正在用订单流实时分析， 点击观看 相关链接 实时黄金订单流分析 ...