（来源：燕财局） 咱们国家一年当中有4次重要经济研判会议和1次核心年度经济会议，而五次之中2次通常集中在12月。 前者的4次都由政治局主持召开，时间通常在每年的4月、7月、10月和12月，对当前经济形势进行分析和研判，尤其是12月那场通常专门研究下一年经济 工作，并为接下来（也在12月）的中央经济工作会议做准备。 后者的1次核心年度经济会议，也就是中央经济工作会议，主要任务是总结当年经济工作，分析研判经济形势，并部署下一年的经济发展规划。 换言之，今年12月有两场会议，第一场是政治局会议，这场会议会专门分析研判2026年该怎么走，给2026年经济工作定调；第二场则是之后的中央经济会 议，这场会议会完善更多的执行细则。 明眼人都能看出来，显然12月的这场政治局经济会议尤为重要，因为它将直接关系到房贷利息会不会降、收入会不会涨、养老金和育儿补贴会不会增加， 国家政策将重点向哪些产业行业板块倾斜，等等。 相当于是对2026年经济宏观政策的抢先预告，分量可以说几乎是全年之最。 上到企商界佬、投资精英，下到炒股的牛散，甚至都要逐字研究每句话背后的含义。 作者 | 燕大 12月重磅会议，给2026年经济划下大方向！ 而昨 ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, continuing the approach from the previous year [1] - The policy support for 2026 is expected to remain strong, focusing on both existing policies and new measures to address emerging issues, aiming to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations [3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic demand and the construction of a strong domestic market, indicating that insufficient effective demand is a key issue to be addressed [5] Group 2 - The meeting called for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade struggles, emphasizing the need for openness while safeguarding national interests [7] - The potential of the Chinese economy is expected to be further released in the new year, providing new development opportunities for both enterprises and individuals [7]

Group 1: Stock Market Activity - On the institutional leaderboard, 41 stocks were listed, with 23 seeing net purchases and 18 experiencing net sales [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net purchases were Dekoli (175 million), Tongyu Communication (70.7 million), and Haixin Food (64.93 million) [1] - Dekoli's stock price increased by 20.00%, while Tongyu Communication's decreased by 8.30%, and Haixin Food's rose by 8.43% [2] Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, indicating a shift towards a more integrated approach to consumption and investment policies [3] - The meeting highlighted the need for local governments to have greater flexibility in implementing policies to boost consumption and investment, rather than focusing solely on consumption [3] - The policy framework continues to prioritize domestic demand, with a clear goal of increasing the resident consumption rate significantly [4] Group 3: Company Profiles - Dekoli is a company involved in the optical transmission industry, with its 400G coherent module having achieved small-scale trial production and receiving overseas sample orders for silicon-based OCS [2] - Xiamen Port Authority operates the largest port terminal in Xiamen and benefits from the development of the Haixi Free Trade Zone [5] - Shuhua Sports, based in Quanzhou, is recognized as one of the leading manufacturers of fitness equipment and display racks in China [5]

12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议总结分析今年经济工作，对明年 经济工作作出一系列重要部署。 围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"，并提出做好明年经济工作的"八个 坚持"，将"坚持内需主导"置于首位。 2026年，中国经济如何前行？哪些重点领域值得关注？ 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入解读。 政策基调："提质增效" 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年，做好经济工作至关重要。"十五五"规划建议指出，"'十五五'时期我国 发展环境面临深刻复杂变化"，"我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时 期"。围绕做好明年经济工作，会议指出，"要坚持稳中求进、提质增效"。 明年初财政前置发力形成一定支撑。同时5000亿元新型政策性金融工具已全部投放，但对贷款的带动作 用仍有限，或亦将在明年开门红中集中开始体现。 华泰证券认为，从"以进促稳"到"提质增效"，经济政策基调从"进"和"立"到重"质"和"效"。 从政策基调的措辞看，今年政治局会议要求"稳中求进、提质增效"，而2024年12月政治局会议则强 调"坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破， ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The central government emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" for economic growth, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" to promote a consumption-driven economic model[5] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4%, with new local special bonds projected to be issued at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan[6] - The focus on improving people's livelihoods remains high, with policies aimed at resolving overdue payments to businesses and wages for migrant workers[6] Group 2: Export Performance - In November 2025, dollar-denominated exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.9%[8] - The trade surplus rebounded, with exports in November showing a month-on-month growth of 8.2%, significantly higher than the 1.0% growth in October[8] - Exports to non-U.S. markets, particularly the EU and ASEAN, showed positive growth, with ASEAN exports up by 8.2% and Latin America by 14.9%[9] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.7 trillion yuan, with the proportion of stocks rising falling to 42.66%[16] - New issuance of equity funds dropped to 12.16 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in public fund activity[17] - Foreign capital saw a net outflow of 3.8 million USD, with the proportion of northbound trading declining to 29.0%[17] Group 4: Company Performance and Projections - China Tianying's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8%[34] - Didi's adjusted EBITA for 2025 is projected at 46.0 billion yuan, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan based on a 15x EV/EBITA valuation[38] - COFCO Technology's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 2.3%, with revenue reaching 1.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%[44]

12月8日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。 多家券商首席经济学家分享了最新的学习体会。券商预计，2025年顺利实现发展目标，2026年仍需保持较高的 目标设定，兼顾"硬实力"与"软实力"，统筹内外，优化存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，着力创造就业保"四 稳"，构建流畅内循环、强韧性的内需市场，持之以恒改善民生；政策实施层面注重政策落地后的持续推进增 强实效，政策部署更重衔接协同集成效应。 财政和货币政策仍有较大空间 会议指出，"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"。对此，浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示， 结合积极的财政政策基调以及中央预算稳定调节基金的特点，2026年存在小幅提高赤字率的可能性，同时综合 考虑结转结余，则2026年广义财政力度或将下降。预计2026年赤字率可能设定为4.0%—4.2%左右，对应赤字 规模为5.89万亿元至6.19万亿元，广义赤字规模约为11.79万亿元至12.09万亿元。 兴业证券首席经济学家王涵表示，此次会议仍将"扩大内需"工作放在首位，其次新增表述"优化供给"，"坚持 创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"，相比于7月会议而言，此次会议将产业相关内容提 ...

Key Insights - The report emphasizes a continuation of a proactive policy stance, with an increased focus on domestic demand as a strategic priority for the economy in 2026 [5][6][8] - Export resilience is highlighted, with November 2025 showing a year-on-year export growth of 5.9%, reversing a previous decline [12][13] Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 8, 2025, reiterated the importance of balancing domestic economic work with international trade challenges, maintaining a focus on economic construction as a core task [5][6] - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a general deficit ratio around 4%, with broad deficit levels similar to 2025 [7] - Monetary policy is projected to have room for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a potential interest rate reduction of 10-20 basis points [7][8] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Growth - The meeting underscored the need to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, indicating a strategic elevation of domestic demand's role in economic growth [8][10] - The focus on consumption is expected to shift towards services, with policies supporting the replacement of old goods to stimulate physical consumption [8][10] Group 3: Export Performance - November 2025 saw exports reach $330.35 billion, marking a historical high for the month, with a significant recovery from previous declines [12][13] - The report notes that while exports to the U.S. have decreased, there has been notable growth in exports to Africa, the EU, and Japan, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [15][16] - Intermediate goods and capital goods exports are expected to remain strong, supported by industrialization in emerging markets and infrastructure needs in regions like Africa [12][16]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline on December 8, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.23% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropping by 1.25% [2] - The total trading volume in the market was HKD 206.23 billion, with short selling accounting for 16.66% of the total trading volume [2] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 1.54 billion, with Xiaomi Group, SMIC, and Pop Mart being the most actively bought stocks [2][3] Group 2: Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy and a loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and counter economic downward pressure [4] - The meeting outlined eight key principles for economic work in 2026, with a focus on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and green transformation [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Bosideng (3998.HK) - Bosideng reported a revenue of HKD 8.928 billion for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while net profit rose by 5.3% to HKD 1.189 billion [6] - The brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% increase in revenue to HKD 6.568 billion, although the gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [6] - The OEM business faced challenges, with revenue declining by 11.7% to HKD 2.044 billion, but gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% due to effective cost management [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to perform well in the upcoming peak season, with projected EPS for fiscal years 2026-2028 at HKD 0.35, 0.38, and 0.43 respectively [8] - A target price of HKD 6.0 is set for the 2025/26 fiscal year, reflecting a 16 times PE ratio [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The Central Politburo meeting emphasized that the economic work in 2026 should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [2]. - The import in China shows a certain repair trend, while the growth rate of exports has declined slightly in the past two months, which is in line with expectations due to the high base of exports in the same period last year, weak overseas demand, and the overdraft effect of pre - export on demand [3]. - The A - share market closed higher on the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.6% [4]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, increase support for innovative consumption, focus on the reform and re - balancing themes established in the new five - year plan, and reiterate the stability of the real estate market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Policy - The 2026 fiscal policy may continue the high - financing trend of government bonds, and the deficit rate may increase. The monetary policy will focus on improving traditional mechanisms, and large - scale interest - rate cuts are expected to be cautious. There are policy expectations for promoting consumption, and innovation, people's livelihood, and green transformation will be long - term policy orientations [2]. - The Central Economic Work Conference may set the GDP growth target for 2026 in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on innovation, consumption, and real estate market stability [9]. 3.2 Trade Data - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's cumulative export in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, with a monthly increase of 5.9%. The cumulative increase in imports was - 0.6%, and the monthly increase was 1.9% [3]. 3.3 Financial Market - A - share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.6%, and the two - market trading volume increased by 3108.75 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day [4]. - International market: The South Korean Composite Index rose 1.34%, the Wande All - A Index rose 1.04%, the Russian RTS Index fell 1.75%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23%, the US three major stock indexes closed down, the German DAX rose slightly by 0.07%, the French CAC40 fell slightly by 0.08%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.23% [4]. - Interest rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 1.8526%, with a change of + 0.4BP, and the average prices of inter - bank R001 and R007 on the day were 1.3718% and 1.4940% respectively [5]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - In November, the sales volume of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 33% year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline in the first 6 days of December was 34%. The contract sales volume of top - 100 developers in November decreased by 37% year - on - year, and the number of second - hand housing listings in 50 cities increased by 10% year - on - year [7]. - Vanke is seeking bondholders' approval to postpone the repayment of two domestic bonds worth 200 million yuan and 370 million yuan respectively, and the bondholders' meetings are scheduled for December 10 and 22 [8]. - UBS expects that in November, the year - on - year decline in real estate sales will expand (down 20 - 25% year - on - year), and real estate investment will continue to contract deeply (down 23% year - on - year) [10]. 3.5 Economic Forecast - UBS expects that in 2026, the GDP growth target will be in the range of 4.5% - 5%, and the GDP growth rate will fall to 4.5%. The Central Economic Work Conference may maintain a moderately supportive tone in fiscal and monetary policies [9]. - For the November official data, UBS expects that real estate sales will decline more, real estate investment will contract deeply, infrastructure investment decline will narrow slightly, retail and export sales will improve slightly, industrial production growth will slow down, official social financing and credit growth may slightly decrease, CPI may improve, and PPI decline may narrow slightly [10].

Group 1 - The core economic policy for 2026 emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy combined with moderately loose monetary policy, continuing the approach from the previous year [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of leveraging existing policies while also introducing new measures to address emerging issues, aiming for a synergistic effect to stabilize short-term fluctuations and lay a foundation for long-term development [3] - The focus on "domestic demand as the main driver" indicates that insufficient effective demand remains a key challenge, necessitating deeper efforts to build a strong domestic market and dismantle local protectionism and regional barriers [5] Group 2 - The meeting underscored the need for better coordination between domestic economic work and international trade dynamics, advocating for both openness and the protection of national interests in response to uncertainties [7] - The potential for the Chinese economy is expected to be further unleashed in the new year, presenting new development opportunities for both enterprises and individuals across various sectors [7]