21世纪经济报道 特约记者庞华玮 广州报道 在复杂外部环境下，南向资金持续布局港股市场，4月以来 加仓超千亿港元。 4月1日至4月17日，仅用了12个交易日，南向资金累计净流入1658.08亿港元。 对此，有业内人士表示，南向资金加速流入，主要流向消费和科技行业。 据21世纪经济报道记者了解，机构在港股投资上青睐"哑铃策略"，主要是布局港股的两类资产：一类是 以互联网龙头为代表的科技股，另一类是低估值、高股息的红利股。 2025年迄今，南向资金净流入已高达6044.61亿港元，创出同期历史新高。 值得关注的是，自4月3日起，港股市场大幅下跌，但南向资金并没有明显流出，反而逆势加仓。 格上基金发布的数据显示，4月7日到4月16日的交易日，仅4月10日是一天小幅净流出，其他交易日均为 净流入。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，"虽然近期受到关税政策的影响，A股和港股都出现一定的震 荡调整，但是南下资金依然去抄底港股的优质资产，因为港股在估值方面处于全球主要资本市场的低 位，再加上美股估值泡沫破裂，资金流出寻找新的估值洼地，港股无疑是一个理想的资金流入地。" 南向资金加速流入 自4月2日美国宣布"对等关税"政策 ...

2025年的全球资本市场可能比以往任何一年都要精彩，仅仅不到四个月就堪称波澜壮阔——先是降息预 期反复摇摆，然后是外部关税规则反复变动接近失效，导致资金避险情绪升温。 一、细究：哑铃策略如何跑赢市场？ 不过在这场动荡中，港股市场却异军突起。截至4月15日，南向资金月内累计净流入超1600亿港元，此 前单日净流入更是屡屡创下新高。不到四个月，2025年港股吸金程度已经在近十年中排名第三。 细看资金流向，一个鲜明的策略浮出水面："哑铃策略"——同时重仓高弹性科技股与高股息红利股似乎 已经成为资金押注港股的标配。 2025年一季度，港股经历"过山车行情"。 1月：AI热潮推动科技股单月暴涨20%，红利股横盘； 2月：地缘冲突引发恐慌，科技股回调12%，红利股逆势涨3%； 数据显示，热门红利产品$港股红利低波ETF(SH520550)$已经实现连续20个交易日资金净流入，年内不 到四个月规模增长超200%，成为南向资金加仓的核心标的之一。当前该ETF成分股平均股息率7.5%， 中石油、中海油、四大行等权重股盈利稳定。且2025年恒指回调15%期间，标的指数仅下跌5%，最大 回撤不足科技股的一半。 3月：政策利好释放， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a "golden window period" driven by both domestic and foreign capital, with strong signals of bullish sentiment despite recent adjustments in the tech sector [2]. Group 1: Capital Inflows and Market Sentiment - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow exceeding 427 billion HKD this year, marking a historical high for the same period, with a single-day peak net purchase of nearly 30 billion HKD, indicating a clear "buying opportunity on dips" signal [1]. - Foreign institutional investors are increasingly optimistic, with Goldman Sachs noting that international investor interest in Chinese stocks has reached a four-year peak, and Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings forecasts [1]. Group 2: Technology Sector Resilience - The technology sector, represented by companies like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Xpeng, continues to show strong performance, with Tencent's Q4 2024 net profit surging by 30% year-on-year, Xiaomi's automotive business achieving a gross margin exceeding 20%, and Xpeng's MONA M03 model sales accounting for over 50% [4]. - The performance data supports the profitability recovery logic for tech stocks, providing a fundamental basis for related Hong Kong stock ETFs, such as the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF (159750), which has risen approximately 30% this year [4]. Group 3: Demand for Dividend Assets - There is a significant increase in demand for dividend asset allocation, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a decline in domestic risk-free yields to 1.7% [6]. - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) has shown enhanced "capital attraction" due to its 7.13% dividend yield and low volatility characteristics, making it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to maintain a dynamic adjustment rhythm in investment strategies, with a focus on the Hong Kong Tech 50 ETF (159750) for opportunistic buying during dips and long-term holding of the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) [7]. - A "barbell strategy" is suggested, combining high-growth and high-stability asset allocations, which could significantly enhance risk-adjusted returns, with a calculated Sharpe ratio exceeding 2.5 when allocated in a 60:40 ratio [6][7].

昨天有一篇判断10年国债会上到2.5%的卖方分析，传播比较多，中午我们在《 鸡贼的观点 》里对线了一下，省流版观点就是—— 今年如果10年国债上到 2.5%，博主就把键盘吃了。 今天先聊债券，因为债市日内确实经历了，很炸裂的，从ICU到KTV的行情变化。 原因是好几个小作文 ，这里我就不贴了，一方面大部分真实性都存疑，另一方面上面 打击小作文的意图还是比较明显的， 今天几个聊小作文的文章，傍 晚都被删了......所以，咱们还是聊正儿八经的观点吧。 观点其实上周五都写了，没有变化，下图 ，理财经理小伙伴们可以考虑收藏一下，每当债市下跌的时候，你把这个图拿出来，看看这5条里，是否有根本 性的变化，如果没有的话，就继续让客户放宽心一点。 下午14点后，债市出现了非常大的反转行情，按日内高点算的话，10年国债下了8bps，30年国债下了6bps，这都属于巨幅的单日变化。 事实上，上面说的这些里，这两天的几个边际变化在于： 第一，财新的统计， 3月仅过去不到两周，累计686只拟发行 信用债 中，有76只取消发行 ， 相当于每11只拟发信用债中就有1只取消发行，同比和环比都 大幅攀升 。 这说明债市调整，已经波及到了企 ...

证券研究报告 固定收益报告 关注两会定调，哑铃策略或占优 可转债周报（3.3-3.7） 2025 年 03 月 03 日 中证转债-上证指数走势图 -30% -10% 10% 30% 24-02 24-04 24-06 24-08 24-10 24-12 25-02 上证指数 中证转债 刘文蓉 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523070001 liuwenrong@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 可转债周报（2.24-2.28）：科技内部轮动或加 快，转债关注交易节奏 2025-02-24 2 可转债周报（2.17-2.21）：转债估值相对高位， 关注结构性行情 2025-02-17 3 可转债周报（2.10-2.14）：转债估值有支撑， 关注科技主题方向 2025-02-11 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 二级市场跟踪。1）转债跟随正股上涨。截至 2 月 28 日，上证指数 周环比下跌 1.72%，收于 3320.9 点；上证转债周环比下跌 0.68%，收 于 378.57 点；中证转债周环比下跌 0.89%，收于 429.87 点；深证转 债周环比下跌 1 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicator Changes - In 2023, the company's operating revenue was approximately 394 billion, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.02 billion, an increase of 10.75% year-on-year, marking the best performance since its listing in 2002 [4][14][6] - For the first half of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.15 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 28% [6] Business Line Data and Key Indicator Changes - The battery materials segment saw revenue drop from 286 billion in 2022 to 171.4 billion in 2023, while the tungsten-aluminum business increased from 126 billion to 155.7 billion [15][14] - The rare earth business revenue decreased from 59 billion to 51.7 billion, and the real estate segment reported a significant impairment loss of 3 billion [15][14] Market Data and Key Indicator Changes - The company holds the largest tungsten resources in A-shares, with a self-sufficiency rate of 36.6% for tungsten ore, which is higher than its competitors [20] - The market capitalization as of August 1, 2024, was 240 billion, with a static P/E ratio of 15, the lowest in the industry [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is pursuing a "dumbbell strategy," balancing low-risk defensive assets with high-risk growth assets, focusing on tungsten and new energy businesses [1] - A new round of fundraising was initiated to raise 35.3 billion for projects related to tungsten and photovoltaic materials, aligning with national industrial development directions [9][11] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the performance in 2023 was achieved despite a downturn in the new energy business, indicating resilience [6] - The company expects to enhance its market position in the photovoltaic tungsten wire sector, with production capacity projected to reach 2000 billion meters by 2026 [35] Other Important Information - The company is actively divesting from its real estate business, which has already yielded 1.45 billion in investment income in the first half of 2024 [44] - The integration of rare earth separation business with China Rare Earth Group has led to a significant decline in revenue and profit from this segment [43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current status of the Dahu Lake tungsten mine project? - The Dahu Lake project has been included in Jiangxi Province's key construction projects for 2024, and preliminary preparations have begun, including mining license updates and feasibility studies [26] Question: How is the company addressing the downturn in the new energy materials sector? - The company is focusing on developing next-generation new energy materials and has seen some improvement in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter [39]