2025年5月16日，澳大利亚莱纳斯稀土公司官网一则公告引发全球震动：声称在马来西亚工厂首次实现"氧化镝"分离技术突破，并计划下 个月量产"铽"。 这两个被中国列入4月4日出口管制清单的战略金属，是制造电动汽车电机、战斗机传感器和风力涡轮机的核心材料。 就在西方媒体高呼"中国垄断终结"之际，财报数据和产业真相却撕开了这场豪赌的底牌——莱纳斯的生产成本竟是中国企业的两倍以 上，而它的年产量仅相当于中国总量的5%。这场看似热闹的稀土突围战，实则是西方在技术壁垒与成本困局中的挣扎缩影。 莱纳斯CEO宣称的"全球唯一非中国重稀土分离商"头衔，掩盖了一个致命问题：规模。中国北方稀土年报显示，其单位稀土氧化物 （REO）生产成本仅为4-7美元/千克，而莱纳斯高达10-15美元/千克。 性废水处理问题常年遭居民抗议，被迫将部分工序迁回澳大利亚，导致物流和管理成本激增。从产量看，中国每年分离1.5-2万吨重稀 土，进口回收另增1-1.5万吨，而莱纳斯规划的年产能仅1500吨，不及中国单家头部企业的零头。 正如美国陆军副参谋长克里斯托弗的坦承："F-18战机导弹传感器所需的铟锑金属完全依赖中国技术，我们连替代方案的影子都没看 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 总量研究 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗普的交易底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十四篇（2025-05- 10） 中美关税第二轮，双方在如何出牌？—— 《大国博弈》系列第七十九篇（2025-03- 05） 从减税视角出发，特朗普后续关税力度几 何？——《大国博弈》系列第七十八篇 （2025-02-20） 如何看待美中加墨本轮关税交锋？——《大 国博弈》系列第七十七篇（2025-02-06） 野心与现实：特朗普首日新政评述——《大 国博弈》系列第七十六篇（2025-01-21） 要点 核心观点： 在中国的示范下，越来越多的国家意识到，与美谈判"以斗争求合作则合作存，以 妥协求合作则合作亡"，"美 X 谈判"进展缓慢，对美国经济、市场和特朗普选盘 逐步造成实质 ...

同时指出增加的税款属于谁购买谁出钱，这部分钱不是我们出而是由美国民众负责。 就在刚刚中美两国发布联合声明，重点强调了此次日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，公布了两天闭门谈判的结 果。中美双方承诺在5月14日前采取以下举措： 美国：在5月14日前，中国对美国商品的关税从125%降至10%，为期90天； 美国对中国商品的关税从145%降至30%，为期90天 后续双方建立相关协调机制，就关税的事情再做协商至此中美关税大战就此完结。 （在这里重点需要给大家强调一下为什么美国降到30%，这个多收20%属于芬太尼税，中方在2025年二 月份和三月份的时候已经进行过反制） 而在中美会谈的时候，日本首相石破茂5月12日在国会明确表态，日本坚持汽车关税必须作为谈判核心 议题。石破茂更是说出了豪言壮语表示，将在日美贸易谈判中寻求取消所有关税的目标。以"0%关 税"为最终目标。而日本将原计划定于和美国的谈判从六月份推迟到了七月份。 而在中美谈完，日本却迎来了非常不好的消息，不少投资者开始大规模的抛售日本国债，目前日本30年 期国债收益率攀升至近25年来的最高水平。 收益率上升5个基点，达到2000年11月以来的最高水平。 这 估计是日本方面 ...

韩国外长（资料图） 中国有句老话，听其言而观其行。作为美国的盟友，韩国政府的外交政策深受美国的影响。韩国外交部长虽然这样表态，我们还是要关注接下来的一系列 举动。果不其然，赵兑烈认为韩国的外交政策需要优先定位于韩美同盟等基础性问题，至于跟中国接触也是为了"防止21世纪强国之间爆发战争"，更是为 了韩国自身利益。但是，从美国对韩国政治、经济的影响以及驻韩美军的存在，这就决定了韩国想完全制定独立自主的外交政策是不现实。 韩国等小国的"表态中立"，本质是在大国夹缝中求生存的无奈选择。它们既不愿放弃美国的安全保护，又无法承受与中国经济脱钩的代价。中国的反制措 施和美国的胁迫，共同塑造了小国"口头上不选边、行动上找平衡"的策略。正如新加坡前总理李显龙所言："在中美之间，小国不是在选边，而是在选怎么 活"。这种困境短期内难以突破，而大国博弈的烈度，将最终决定这些国家能否在"惊涛骇浪"中守住航向。 据智通财经报道，韩国要求与美国就贸易问题进行"冷静有序"的磋商。据报道，这个亚洲第四大经济体正寻求在7月前与美国达成协议以避免加征关税。在 华盛顿举行的"2+2"会谈中，韩国经济副总理兼企划财政部长官崔相穆和产业通商资源部长官D ...

日本突然沉默了。 5月2号，美日第2轮关税谈判结束，东京那边，一反常态地安静得出奇。没有通稿，没有细节，甚至连一句完整的成果通报都没有。只留下赤泽亮正那句"坦 诚且富有建设性"。听起来像是无功而返，也可能是——谈崩了。 这反常的安静背后，不简单。 事实上，这并不是一次普通的贸易磋商。从日本财务大臣到首相本人，在谈判前后陆续发声。力度、用词，明显升级。尤其是财务大臣加藤胜信的一句话， 分量极重。他说，日本手中持有的大量美国国债，是"一个筹码"。这不是一句客套话。是警告，也是试探。美国国债，是日本多年来稳定对美关系的重要资 产。现在被提上台面，本身就是一种示意：必要时，日本也可以掀桌子。 谁都知道，这场谈判的焦点，不在农产品，也不止关税。是日本汽车，是制造业的命根子。就在同一天，首相石破茂面对媒体表态：绝不能接受对日本汽车 加税。他说，加税会直接导致失业。更关键的是，日本"不会为了仓促达成协议而损害国家利益"。 这句话，比什么都清楚。 美方的策略一向直接，想要逼迫对方让步，就释放压力信号。而这次，日本没接。反而开始反压。从沉默到发声，再到节奏上的放慢，整个布局，像是从被 动变主动。日本似乎不急了。这个"不急"，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed sale of 43 global ports by Li Ka-shing to BlackRock for $22.8 billion has triggered an antitrust investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation, leading to a significant drop in the market value of Cheung Kong Group by HKD 78.1 billion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Antitrust Investigation Impact - The antitrust investigation has been described as a rare and strong response from Chinese regulators, indicating serious scrutiny of the $22.8 billion deal [3][4]. - The market reacted swiftly, with Cheung Kong Group's stock price plummeting, resulting in a loss equivalent to nearly one million average family homes [3][4]. - Legal experts affirm that Chinese regulators have the authority to investigate foreign monopolistic behaviors affecting domestic market competition under the Antitrust Law [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications of the Deal - The sale of ports, particularly those at both ends of the Panama Canal, is seen as a strategic move that could impact China's trade routes, as approximately 21% of the ships using the canal are Chinese [8][10]. - The U.S. has shown increasing interest in global ports, with recent policy changes indicating a potential trade war targeting Chinese interests [6][8]. - Historical context reveals that the U.S. has previously exerted control over the Panama Canal, suggesting a pattern of geopolitical maneuvering through economic means [10][11]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Business Strategy - Li Ka-shing's decision to sell ports without a public bidding process raises questions about the motivations behind the transaction, suggesting a potential urgency in reallocating assets [4][17]. - The shift in Li's investment strategy from a heavy focus on Hong Kong to a more diversified portfolio in Europe and North America indicates a strategic pivot in response to global market dynamics [15][19]. - The rapid agreement with BlackRock, despite previous rejections of lower offers, suggests a pressing need to adapt to changing geopolitical landscapes [17][19]. Group 4: China's Strategic Countermeasures - China has initiated a multi-faceted response to the port sale, including high-level meetings with influential figures in the investment community, signaling a strategic recalibration [21][23]. - The introduction of stricter scrutiny under the revised Antitrust Law provides a legal framework for the government to intervene in transactions deemed to threaten national security [23][25]. - The ongoing negotiations and potential involvement of state-owned enterprises in acquiring the ports highlight China's commitment to safeguarding its strategic interests [21][25]. Group 5: Broader Implications for Global Trade - The situation exemplifies the intersection of commercial interests and national security, reflecting the complexities faced by businesses in a globalized economy [27]. - The case serves as a lesson for entrepreneurs on balancing profit motives with national strategic considerations, emphasizing the importance of understanding geopolitical contexts in business decisions [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations between Li Ka-shing's company and a U.S. consortium regarding the sale of two ports in Panama, suggesting a likely agreement will be reached by April 2nd, despite public criticism and a lack of favorable proposals from mainland China or Hong Kong [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Li Ka-shing's company, Cheung Kong Holdings, is reportedly determined to proceed with the sale of the ports to the U.S. consortium, as the ports have a return rate of less than 1%, making the sale financially beneficial [2][5]. - The company has relocated its registration to the Cayman Islands, which complicates any direct intervention from Chinese authorities [4][6]. - Cheung Kong Holdings has been pursuing an "outward" strategy since 2015, aligning with China's encouragement of business expansion [4][6]. Group 2: Market Implications - The potential sale of the ports is significant for the U.S., as it aligns with Trump's agenda to regain control over the Panama Canal, which is crucial for U.S. interests in global shipping [7]. - The article highlights that approximately 20% of the Panama Canal's business volume comes from China, indicating that U.S. control over the canal could impact China's maritime trade [7]. - The discussion emphasizes the need for Chinese state-owned enterprises to engage more in the operations of critical maritime routes like the Panama Canal to counterbalance U.S. influence [8].

Core Viewpoint - The sale of global port assets by Cheung Kong Holdings to BlackRock has triggered significant market reactions and raised concerns about potential geopolitical implications, particularly regarding China's strategic interests in global trade routes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the asset sale, the combined market value of Cheung Kong and three other companies plummeted by over 78.1 billion HKD, with Cheung Kong's stock dropping 16.49% over 11 trading days [1]. - Investors are worried not only about the asset sale itself but also about the signal it sends regarding a potential shift away from the Chinese market [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The ports in question handle 6% of global maritime trade, with 21.4% of Chinese shipping passing through the Panama Canal, highlighting their strategic importance [1]. - The Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office criticized Li Ka-shing's actions, suggesting that the transaction could play a crucial role in the U.S. strategy to contain China [2]. - The Chinese government has indicated potential responses, including the possibility of sanctions against BlackRock if the transaction is perceived as being under U.S. pressure [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - State-owned enterprises like COSCO Shipping have expressed their commitment to monitoring global strategic ports and are accelerating investments in key locations such as Greece's Piraeus Port and Peru's Chancay Port [2]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is revising the Foreign Investment Law to impose stricter scrutiny on the transfer of overseas assets in critical infrastructure sectors, specifically targeting ports and energy [2]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - If the transaction proceeds, Cheung Kong may face scrutiny and sanctions from the Chinese government, potentially impacting its domestic operations across various sectors [5]. - Alternatively, if the transaction is terminated, Li Ka-shing could mitigate losses and potentially restore trust with the Chinese government, positioning himself as a patriotic businessman [6]. - The outcome of this situation is not just a business decision but also a matter of historical significance for Li Ka-shing, as it could define his legacy in the context of national interests versus capital pursuits [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry [1] Core Insights - The defense sector has shown an upward trend, with significant increases in indices, particularly a 7.44% rise in the national defense and military index, outperforming the broader market by 5.88 percentage points [4][9] - The report emphasizes that the intensification of great power competition is a long-term trend, leading to increased defense spending and a positive long-term outlook for the military industry [10][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The national defense and military index rose by 7.44% from March 3 to March 7, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.56% [15][16] - The CSI National Defense Index performed the best among military indices, with an 8.98% increase [17][18] - The report highlights strong performances in the national defense information technology and materials processing sectors [19][21] Major News in the Military Industry - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of completing the military's "14th Five-Year Plan" during a meeting with military representatives, which is crucial for achieving the centenary goals of the military [26] - SpaceX's eighth test flight of the "Starship" faced setbacks, and Russia conducted strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [28] Investment Focus - Key investment areas identified include: 1. Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation 2. Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Aerospace Electrical Equipment 3. Subsystems: AVIC Onboard, North Navigation 4. Materials and Processing: Fushun Special Steel, AVIC Heavy Machinery, Philit, Tunan Co., Huayin Technology, and Plit [11][12]