期货热点追踪 黄金3250美元支撑暗藏玄机！市场押注美联储9月出手，金银铜未来价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

美联储理事沃勒：非常有信心目前的政策方向是正确的。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper futures main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Globally, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper mine port inventories are increasing, and domestic smelters' production is stable. The supply is slightly increasing due to sufficient domestic raw material supply and favorable copper prices. However, downstream consumption has limited room for improvement as copper prices are high, copper product processing plants have fewer new orders and lower operating rates, and buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may see a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,920 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,507 dollars/ton, down 26.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 153,061 lots, down 10,259 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,104 lots, up 1,294 lots. The LME copper inventory is 168,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 31,754 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,085 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,165 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 93 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 165 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 14.01 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 292.44 million tons per month, up 53.13 million tons. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,800 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,500 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan per month, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan per month, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.97%, down 1.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.99%, down 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.99%, down 0.0117%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.85, down 0.046 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at lower prices" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with the month - on - month decline widening to 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, supporting automobile and home appliance consumption, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing. In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of global automobile sales. Two Fed officials emphasized patience in adjusting policies. The ECB warned of a potential "fundamental institutional change" due to Trump's tariff policies. China supported 33 least - developed African countries in using the zero - tariff policy, and the import volume from these countries reached 21.42 billion dollars from December 1 last year to March this year, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2].

| | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,210.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,216.00 | -30.00↓ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 55.00 | +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -9.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 203,373.00 | +3149.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 373,044.00 | +16037.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 66,175.00 | -2025.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 251,154.00 | -19011.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2 ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金今年是不断创历史的一年，元旦节后黄金多空都达到了极致，尤其是进入到4月份之后这种走势更是陷入癫狂；过去100单日涨跌100美元的稀有行情现 在成了家常便饭，日内V型反转，倒V走势成了常态！一天波动比过去一个月还要大，15分钟图相当于之前的日线！ 黄金超级无敌大扫荡还会不断上演，主要是由当前基本面决定的！在关税大战，地缘局势，央行购金，去美元化，美联储政策不确定，全球经济衰退等大背 景下，投资者狂热，投机资金跟风，黄金暴涨、暴跌成为家常便饭，并且越来越多！未来相当长的一段时间里，黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复 大扫荡，然后寻求大区间突破！做多，做空，都可以，只要有充足的理由都可以，带好损，不抗单，控制好仓位；只要不损，很容易大赚。行情波动大，利 润如果不超过20-30美元就不要考虑出，否则浪费大好行情；利润少则20-30美元，多则50-70美元，位置好点则100美元以上利润也不难！ 黄金，在3250下方折腾了三天后终于在周二迎来突破，而昨天则围绕3300小区间高位强势震荡，日线以小阳线收盘 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

近期，印尼盾汇率走强，截至5月20日，印尼盾对美元汇率较4月底升值1.13%。对此，印尼央行指出， 印尼盾汇率波动处于符合国内经济基本面的区间内，有助于维护经济稳定。 【导读】印尼央行宣布降息25个基点 5月21日，印尼央行如期降息25个基点。 降息25个基点至5.50% 5月21日，印尼央行发布消息，将基准利率（BI-Rate）下调25个基点至5.50%，存款便利利率下调25个 基点至4.75%，贷款便利利率下调25个基点至6.25%。 印尼央行表示，这一决定符合2025年和2026年通胀率预测——维持在低位并控制在2.5±1%的目标范围 内，旨在根据印尼盾基本面维持汇率稳定，推动经济增长。 印尼央行表示，印尼经济增长需持续加强，以缓解美国互惠关税政策带来的全球不确定性影响。2025年 第一季度经济同比增长4.87%，低于2024年四季度的5.02%。结合一季度GDP表现及全球经济动态，印 尼央行预测今年经济增长区间为4.6%至5.4%，略低于此前预测的4.7%至5.5%。因此，需通过加强国内 需求及优化出口增长机遇等措施，进一步强化政策应对，以推动经济增长。 印尼央行称，未来将继续引导货币政策，确保通胀率 ...

近期，金融市场的风云变幻吸引着全球目光，而美联储在其中扮演着关键角色。在一系列复杂事件的交织下，美联储的政策走 向愈发引人关注。 关税政策影响难测，经济数据走势不明 美联储官员表示，当前经济数据走势尚未能全面反映关税政策的影响。6 月及 7 月的数据，难以成为评估关税政策对美国经济数 据走势影响的可靠依据。这使得美联储在制定政策时，面临更多不确定性。在这种情况下，市场对美联储 6 月 18 日利率决议产 生诸多猜测。目前，市场预测央行将联邦基金利率范围维持在 4.25 - 4.50% 的概率约为 92.3%，而降息至 4.25 - 4.00% 的可能性 约为 7.7%。 市场走势受多因素牵动，美元指数前景堪忧 周二，美元指数走势回落至 100 关口下方。近期，美元以及美国国债走势均呈回落态势，这主要是受机构下调美国信贷评级的 影响，美元价值受到冲击，美国国债作为避险资产的吸引力也大打折扣。此外，特朗普亲自出席国会减税法案，使得市场高度 聚焦美国财政政策前景。一旦出现不明朗因素，不仅可能影响近期美元指数行情走势，令其维持走弱方向，还可能引发市场投 资者对美国政府治理能力的担忧，进一步加剧市场的不稳定。 评级下调 ...

二、地缘政治风险缓和 中美贸易谈判进展 中美经贸会谈达成多项共识，部分关税暂停或降低，市场对贸易摩擦的担忧减弱，避险需求退潮。 俄乌冲突降温 黄金价格近期持续下跌的原因是多方面因素共同作用的结果，主要可归纳为以下几点： 一、美元走强与美联储政策 美元指数回升 黄金以美元计价，美元升值会直接压低黄金价格。近期美联储维持高利率的预期增强，市场认为降息可能推迟， 美元指数反弹至高位，导致黄金吸引力下降。 加息预期升温 美国4月CPI数据若超预期，可能促使美联储进一步加息，增加持有黄金的机会成本（黄金不产生利息）。这种政 策预期促使资金从黄金转向美元资产。 俄乌停火谈判的预期及中东局势缓和，进一步削弱了黄金作为避险资产的需求。 三、市场情绪与技术面因素 技术性抛售 金价跌破关键支撑位（如3300美元/盎司），触发程序化交易抛售，形成"越跌越卖"的恶性循环。 多头获利了结 此前黄金连续上涨积累了大量获利盘，投资者选择高位套现锁定利润，导致短期抛压加剧。 四、宏观经济数据影响 美国经济数据向好 非农就业数据超预期、制造业PMI回升等指标缓解了市场对经济衰退的担忧，风险资产（如股票）吸引力上升， 资金撤离黄金市场。 实际利 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]