每经编辑 张锦河 4月30日，据央行网站消息，2025年4月中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了12000亿元买断式逆回购操作。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 贯币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融花 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信年 | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场内 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 金融矢 | | 首页 | 2025年4月30日 星期三 逆回购业务公告 | 我的位置:首页 > | 货币政策司 | | 货币政策工具 > 公开市场业务 > | | 公开市场头 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has shown strong performance with a recent price increase and significant trading activity, indicating a positive market sentiment towards long-term government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 29, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF rose by 0.53%, reaching a price of 124.59 yuan [1]. - The ETF experienced a trading volume of 22.85 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 13.74%, reflecting active market participation [1]. - Over the past month, the average daily trading volume for the ETF was approximately 99.99 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 165.75 billion yuan [2]. - In the last three days, the ETF saw a net inflow of funds totaling 3.81 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 2.48 million yuan [2]. - The financing net purchase amount for the ETF was 27.45 million yuan, with a current financing balance of 324 million yuan, indicating ongoing interest from leveraged investors [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - Analysts from Dongfang Securities noted that the bond market experienced volatility in 2025, with interest rates initially rising but starting to decline from the end of March [2]. - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of continued fluctuations in interest rates as investors await new catalysts from economic fundamentals or central bank actions [2]. - The report suggests that maintaining liquidity while seeking higher yields remains a viable strategy for investors in the current market environment [3]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics and Benefits - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which includes publicly issued 30-year government bonds [3]. - The ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency, with a minimum transaction unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3]. - The presence of multiple market makers ensures ample liquidity, allowing for immediate execution of trades [3].

当我们感悟到异常，发现预期差时，阻碍我们去行动的最大障碍就是"希望交易"，尤其是，当市场已经开始出现相应的波动后，"回头看"会让我们后悔没 有在最佳的位置买入或卖出，于是就希望市场回到之前的位置再执行。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250429— 经济学 VS 医学（+博弈明日PMI数据+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2205亿元逆回购到期，净投放1200亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001下至1.54%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.78%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.04.29) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.59 | 3 1 | | 2. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the focus of monetary policy shifts from "stabilizing the exchange rate and preventing idle circulation" in Q1 to "stabilizing growth" since the start of the trade - war, the capital market re - balances. The capital market in April was generally balanced and loose, with capital interest rates moving closer to the 7D OMO policy rate. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [2][6]. - There may be a certain gap in the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The pressure on the bank's liability side and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May indicate the need for the central bank to provide liquidity support, especially medium - and long - term support. The order of loose monetary policy remains "reserve requirement ratio cut + structural monetary policy tools first, interest rate cut later" [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - In April, the capital market was balanced and loose, with DR001 dropping from around 1.8% to around 1.6%, and the DR007 - R007 spread remaining within 10bp and even within 5bp from the middle of the month. It is expected to cross the month smoothly [6]. - In April, the net lending balance fluctuated around 3 trillion yuan, a historically low level, and the decline of certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates faced resistance after mid - April, indicating a possible gap in medium - and long - term bank liquidity. The government plans to use 5 trillion yuan in investment funds this year, with the ultra - long - term special treasury bonds starting issuance on April 24 and 7 more issues to be issued from May to June. As of April, 1.19 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds have been issued [7]. - The government bond supply in May is the biggest factor affecting the capital market, with an estimated net financing scale between 1.44 - 2.19 trillion yuan. The bank's liability side pressure and the accelerated supply of government bonds in May require the central bank to provide liquidity support. The mid - and long - term liquidity roll - over pressure in May has significantly decreased compared to April. If the "timely reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut" is implemented in May, it is expected to drive down the capital interest rate center [8][11]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From April 21 to April 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan for medium - and long - term liquidity support. The capital market became loose after being balanced. DR001 dropped from 1.72% to 1.58%, R001 from 1.74% to 1.58%, DR007 from 1.71% to 1.64%, and R007 from 1.73% to 1.66%. The spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [12]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bank's capital lending scale increased slightly, with the daily net lending balance of state - owned and joint - stock banks rising from 2.81 trillion yuan to 3.27 trillion yuan, and that of money market funds decreasing from 2.13 trillion yuan to 1.93 trillion yuan [18]. - From April 21 to April 25, the bill interest rate changed little, with the 3M state - owned and joint - stock discount rate fluctuating slightly around 1%, and the six - month state - owned and joint - stock transfer discount rate rising from 1.04% to 1.09% [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of April 27, the central bank's open market operation balance was 10.3 trillion yuan, including 97.2 billion yuan in pledged repurchase balance, 5.1 trillion yuan in outright repurchase balance, and 4.657 trillion yuan in MLF balance. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 86.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 50.45 billion yuan of repurchase agreements matured [28]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From April 21 to April 25, 326 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net financing of - 181.83 billion yuan; 191.123 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, including 75.066 billion yuan of new local bonds and 116.056 billion yuan of refinancing local bonds, with a net financing of 162.512 billion yuan. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, no treasury bonds will be issued, and 93.092 billion yuan of local bonds will be issued, with a net financing of 92.665 billion yuan [35]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From April 21 to April 25, the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, including - 131.83 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 51.7 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from April 28 to April 30, the net payment of government bonds will be 121.08 billion yuan, all for local bonds [42]. 3.5 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, 749.6 billion yuan of CDs were issued, a month - on - month increase of 40 billion yuan; the net financing was - 19.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 16.2 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 331.6 billion yuan of CDs matured, with significantly reduced maturity pressure. State - owned banks had the highest issuance scale. In terms of maturity types, 3M CDs had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 95%, with state - owned banks having the highest success rate of 99%, and 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs having a success rate of 95% [45]. - In terms of issuance interest rates, from April 21 to April 25, the issuance interest rates of CDs of various types of banks and different maturities basically remained at the previous week's level (changes within 1bp) [46]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of CDs - From April 21 to April 25, although the capital market became loose after being balanced, the primary market of CDs still needed to raise prices to attract demand, indicating a medium - and long - term liquidity gap in banks. The yields of CDs of various maturities in the secondary market changed little, with a change range of no more than 1bp. The CD yield curve showed a local inversion of 1bp at 9M and 1Y [66]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The excess reserve ratio in late March 2025 was estimated to be 1.05%. From April 21 to April 27, the central bank's open market net injection was 86.4 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 80.13 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 94.413 billion yuan [73].

Market Overview - The overall market trading volume has slightly increased, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges at the 54.9% percentile level over the past year, indicating a "tight balance" in market liquidity [1][10] - The concentration of trading volume at the industry level has shown an upward trend, while the concentration at the individual stock level has continued to decline [21][24] Profitability and Market Sentiment - The profitability effect has risen, with the difference between the top 10% of stocks' price changes and the median price change increasing by 1.01 percentage points to 6.78% [34] - The median price change for the entire A-share market has increased by 0.83 percentage points to 1.28% [34] Industry Turnover Rates - The highest turnover rates among primary industries last week were in Beauty Care (21.99%), Retail (18.64%), and Social Services (18.07%), while the lowest were in Banking (1.14%), Oil and Petrochemicals (1.69%), and Steel (3.72%) [44] Institutional Research Activity - The highest institutional research intensity was observed in the Electronics (31.05%), Pharmaceuticals (24.90%), and Power Equipment (19.55%) sectors [54] - The research intensity for the CSI 100 index was the highest at 9.07, with a significant increase of 8.94 from the previous week [57] Fund Flow Analysis - The stock market experienced a net outflow of 75.97 billion yuan, which is an increase in outflow by 148.33 billion yuan compared to the previous value [2][58] - The breakdown of fund flows includes a decrease in financing balance by 12.47 billion yuan and an increase in ETF inflows by 109.38 billion yuan [2][58] Market Liquidity and Financing - The financing balance decreased by 12.47 billion yuan, contrasting with an increase of 43.23 billion yuan in the previous week [62] - The top three industries with increased financing balances were Pharmaceuticals (15.94 billion yuan), Electronics (8.96 billion yuan), and Basic Chemicals (5.84 billion yuan) [63] Stock Performance and Concentration - The top 5 industries accounted for 42.30% of the trading volume, reflecting an increase of 0.85 percentage points [24] - The top 10% of stocks accounted for 47.07% of the total trading volume, which is a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous value [26]

国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况。央行副行长邹澜表示， 将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币政策工具箱 总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发力，做好 金融支持。还在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策，助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 【操作建议】 【资金面】 央行公告称，4月28日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2790亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%， 投标量2790亿元，中标量2790亿元。当日1760亿元逆回购到期，据此算，单日净投放1030亿元。资金面 方面，存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行近2个bp，后者因跨月原因上行超3个 bp。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.78%附近，较上日略有上行。 央行在上周进行了超预期规模的MLF续做后，近两日公开市场也维持稳步净投放，资金面预期跨月平 稳。 【政策面】 【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.30%报120.180元，10年期主力合约涨0.03%报 ...

证券研究报告 新希望 (000876 CH) 主业聚焦效果显现，资金面趋于稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地 | 农业综合 | 新希望发布年报，2024 年实现营收 1030.63 亿元（yoy-27.27%），归母净 利 4.74 亿元（yoy+90.05%），扣非净利 6.14 亿元（yoy+113.33%）。其中 Q4 实现营收 258.54 亿元（yoy-26.04%，qoq-6.43%），归母净利 3.20 亿 元（yoy-92.20%，qoq-76.63%）。公司 2024 年聚焦主业，经营优化显著， 看好公司成本下降空间及资金面持续优化，维持"增持"评级。 业务聚焦效果显现，24 年归母净利润同比+90% 受 2023 年年底公司转让白羽肉禽和食品深加工板块的控股权影响，2024 年营收同比下滑，而在猪价上升、成本优化等的带动下公司养猪业务大幅减 亏，同时饲料业务核心竞争力突出、持续贡献稳定盈利，公司 2024 年经营 表现优于去年，归母净利润同比+90%。具体：1）饲料实现营收 ...

新华财经北京4月28日电（王春霞）人民银行28日进行了2790亿元逆回购操作，中标利率为1.5%。当日公开市场有1760亿元逆回购到期，净投放1030亿元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）短期品种涨跌互现。具体来看，隔夜Shibor下跌0.30BP，报1.6030%；7天Shibor上涨8.20BP，报1.7230%；14天Shibor下 跌0.10BP，报1.7690%。 上海银行间同业拆放利率（4月28日） | | | | CULD | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 中 | O/N | 1.6030 | 0.30 | | 1 | 1W | 1.7230 | 8.20 | | 0 | 2W | 1.7690 | 0.10 | | 中 | 1M | 1.7470 | 0.10 | | 1 | 3M | 1.7500 | 0.00 | | 中 | 6M | 1.7600 | 0.00 | | 11 | 9M | 1.7670 | 0.10 | | | 1Y | 1.7680 | 0.10 | 来源：全国银行间同业拆借中 ...

上涨了，恐高的天性就会让你欲卖出落袋为安，上车的人一震就跑，没上的人，要么一直不敢上处于踏空中，要么一震就做空。总之，震荡中多数人眼里 看到的不是上车做多的机会，而是恐慌。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250428— 川大智胜，耗子尾汁（+"稳就业"发布会未超预期+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展2790亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1760亿元逆回购到期，净投放1030亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，DR001小幅下至1.59%附近，DR007因跨月小幅上至1.75%附近。 2400006 1.8800/1.8800/1.8680/1.8700 -1.10 -------------------------- 周末宏观消息面平静，早盘债市情绪略偏积极，10Y国债利率基本平开在1.655%后小幅下至1.65%附近。上午"稳就业稳经济"发布会未超预期，股市午后 小幅下跌，资金面全天均衡偏松，10Y国债利率小幅下至1.64%附近。 -------------------------- 从我们上周五的问卷调查结果来看，超七成的投资者选择"持券过节"而非"持币过节"。今日发布会 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 半数固收卖方看多债市 ——债市情绪面周报（4 月第 4 周） 报告日期： 2025-04-28 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：持券待涨，关注 30Y 利差压缩机会 近期利率持续横盘，投资者普遍看多债市但也谨慎追多。市场即将迎来 4 月经济基本面的确认，关税反复难空债市，持券过节或是较优策略，进入 5 月 后财政供给高峰与宽货币对冲，缴税小月+央行边际转松的态度可能使得资金 利率中枢出现下移，此前负 Carry 现象已经有所缓解。此外也可以适当把握 30Y-10Y 利差走扩的机会，拉长久期，静待利率出现下行机会。 ⚫ 卖方观点：维持乐观，待货币政策落地、基本面验证打开下行空间 截至 4 月 28 日，本 ...