Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed higher yesterday. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, with a - 0.40% change (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a +0.40% month - on - month change (+0.81%) [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 99.13, with a +0.42 month - on - month change (+0.43%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0972, with a +0.000 month - on - month change (+0.00%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.51, with a - 0.02 month - on - month change (-1.18%); DR007 was 1.55, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.82%); R007 was 1.53, with a +0.02 month - on - month change (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a - 0.01 month - on - month change (-0.32%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a +0.00 month - on - month change (-0.32%) [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation of funds in each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [15][16][18] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Multiple charts are provided to show the money market funding situation, including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance situation [28][31] IV. Spread Overview - Multiple charts are provided to show the spread situation, including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][40][44] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of two - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, etc. [42][46][54] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of five - year treasury bond futures, including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, etc. [56][60][61] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of ten - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, etc. [63][65][66] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts are provided to show the situation of thirty - year treasury bond futures, including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, etc. [70][72][76] Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 29, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 557.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank's increased reverse repo operations have led to a loosening of the interbank market funding conditions, with the weighted average rate for repos falling, particularly the overnight repo rate for deposit institutions dropping over 6 basis points to 1.40% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also decreased to 1.38%, with supply around 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions' overnight quotes for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds are around 1.45%, lower than the previous day's levels [3] - Market expectations remain positive, with the central bank's actions aimed at stabilizing the funding conditions at the end of the month [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, down over 2 basis points from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a decline of 0.27% for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts increased by 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.10% respectively [12] Key Economic Indicators - From January to September, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 613.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 1.6% to 316.70 billion yuan [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the rising global trade uncertainty increases the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+0.81%) [10]. - The dollar index is 98.71, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.0974, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.015 (-0.21%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.78%); DR007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.50%); R007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.77%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.77%) [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the indication of relevant figures (such as the closing price trends, price change rates, etc. of treasury bond futures) is provided. The figures include the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios (top 20), long - short positions ratios (top 20), the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [14][16][18][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals The figures include Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [26][27]. IV. Spread Overview The figures include the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TS main contract [41][42][51]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate rises, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 28, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 475.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a generally balanced and stable funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions slightly rising to around 1.47% due to the tax period [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained stable at 1.46%, while non-bank institutions' overnight quotes for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds were around 1.5% [3] - The central bank's stance on month-end liquidity is evident, with no significant fluctuations in the funding conditions despite tax period disturbances [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.24% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was approximately 1.66%, down over 1 basis point from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase: 30-year main contract rose by 0.55%, 10-year by 0.25%, 5-year by 0.15%, and 2-year by 0.08% [11] Economic and Trade Developments - The Chinese government released the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing high-quality development and the enhancement of domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12] - China and ASEAN signed an upgraded version of the free trade agreement in Kuala Lumpur, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [12] - The deputy director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau indicated that insurance capital's average liability duration aligns well with the average R&D cycle of technology companies, with direct investments in tech firms reaching several hundred billion yuan [12] Global Macro Developments - The U.S. and Japan signed a mutual agreement to ensure the supply of critical minerals and rare earths, aiming to diversify and strengthen the market [14] - The U.S. Treasury emphasized the importance of sound monetary policy and communication in stabilizing inflation expectations and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations [14] Bond Market Events - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion in five-year government bonds with a winning yield of 3.730% [16] - Inner Mongolia plans to issue 7.8232 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds and 51.1399 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds on November 4 [16] - The issuance scale of technology innovation bonds in Tianjin's interbank market has surpassed 20 billion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market conditions, highlighting the impact of central bank policies, particularly the resumption of bond purchases and the decline in MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rates, which have contributed to a bullish sentiment in the stock market and a significant drop in long-term bond yields [1][3]. Financial Market Overview - The central bank conducted a net injection of 348.3 billion yuan through reverse repos and MLF operations, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [1]. - The overnight and seven-day repo rates have shown upward trends, with DR001 around 1.45% and DR007 at approximately 1.58% [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.85% but later fell to around 1.795% following the announcement of resumed bond purchases by the central bank [3]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong performance, with the index reaching a peak of 3999 points, driven by positive sentiment from the weekend's trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [3]. - The article notes that the stock market's rise was anticipated, as traders had already priced in expectations of reaching 4000 points [3]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market initially showed cautious sentiment but reacted positively to the central bank's announcement, leading to a significant drop in yields [3]. - The MLF interest rate was reported to have decreased to approximately 1.8375%, further supporting the bullish trend in the bond market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through short - term reverse repurchase. On October 27, it conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan in October. The overall liquidity situation was loose [2][6]. - The liquidity remained loose, but there was some volatility pressure at the end of the month. The central bank showed a clear attitude of caring for liquidity, with a continuous net injection of medium - and long - term liquidity. However, at the end of October, due to the overlap of tax payments and cross - month disturbances, the cross - month liquidity was expected to be generally stable but with some volatility compared to the mid - month level [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds increased. From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 214.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 74 billion yuan compared to the period from October 13 to October 19. From October 27 to November 2, the net payment scale of government bonds was expected to be 133.72 billion yuan [8]. - Most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, while the 1 - year yield increased. The net financing amount of NCDs increased. From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 345.4 billion yuan. From October 27 to November 2, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs was expected to be 564.3 billion yuan [9]. - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. Based on the calculation results, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, while the duration of short - term pure bond funds increased [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 7.81 billion yuan. On October 23, it conducted a 12 billion yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit operation. In October, the MLF matured at 700 billion yuan, and on October 27, the central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan. The two medium - and long - term liquidity tools, namely, the repurchase and MLF, had a total net injection of 600 billion yuan in October [6]. - **Liquidity Situation**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, up 0.2 and 1.3 basis points compared to the period from October 13 to October 17. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.4 and down 0.4 basis points compared to the previous period. The overall liquidity was still relatively loose, but there was a slight increase in the weighted average rate of DR001 on October 24 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 214.2 billion yuan, with the net financing amount of national bonds about 77.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds about 136.7 billion yuan. From October 27 to November 2, the net payment scale of government bonds was expected to be 133.72 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 53.94 billion yuan and that of local government bonds about 187.66 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of October 24, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4950% and 1.5900% respectively, down 1.0 and 0.4 basis points compared to October 17. The 1 - year maturity yield was 1.6750%, up 0.9 basis points compared to October 17 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 345.4 billion yuan, higher than the 222.7 billion yuan in the period from October 13 to October 19. From October 27 to November 2, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs was expected to be 564.3 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, slightly lower than the 107.69% in the period from October 13 to October 17 [10]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On October 24, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.79 years, down 0.53 years week - on - week, at the 79.1% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.53 years, up 0.26 years week - on - week, at the 83.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The 30 - year minus 10 - year Treasury spread has fully reflected the repair of risk preference, and the 10 - year minus 1 - year Treasury spread has also generally reflected it. The bond market currently has allocation value, but chasing the rise requires caution [3][10]. - The capital market is in a loose state, with stable and low capital prices and little seasonal fluctuation. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - The issuance pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. NCDs have high allocation value at the end of the year and may decline more than expected [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Pricing of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit? - **Bond Market Outlook**: Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The spreads have reflected risk - preference repair, and the bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, and there may be opportunities for monetary easing, but redemption pressure will persist. Chasing the rise of bonds requires caution [3][10]. - **Capital Market Situation**: The capital market is in a loose state, with capital prices at a stable low and little seasonal fluctuation. This is due to the central bank's careful liquidity arrangements and the relatively loose and smooth - flowing bank liabilities. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - **Analysis of NCDs' Net Financing Decline**: Some investors are worried about the continuous negative net financing of NCDs since the third quarter. This decline is consistent with the state of the bank's broad liability gap and is also due to the substitution effect of the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection [13]. - **NCDs' Supply Pressure in the Fourth Quarter**: The issuance pressure of NCDs in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. Although there is still some supply pressure at the end of the year, the probability of negative feedback is not high. The NCDs' interest rate is in a high - allocation - value range and may decline more than expected at the end of the year [4][17].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 168 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 24, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 168 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 32 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 164.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - For the week of October 27-31, a total of 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature, along with 700 billion yuan in MLF maturing on Monday and 500 billion yuan in 182-day reverse repos maturing on Wednesday [1] - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, with a one-year term [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains balanced, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions stable around 1.32%, while non-bank institutions are borrowing at rates between 1.43% and 1.45% [3] - Market optimism regarding funding stability is supported by the central bank's actions, despite potential short-term liquidity tightening due to tax periods and month-end factors [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.21% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is stable at 1.68% [6] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds show slight fluctuations, with the 1-year yield at 1.4700%, 5-year at 1.6050%, and 10-year at 1.7100% [8] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds closed down 0.25%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.06% and 0.05%, respectively [11] Group 5: Recent Debt Issuance - Shandong Province plans to issue 16.4274 billion yuan in government special bonds on October 30, while Jiangxi Province will issue 63.2003 billion yuan in local bonds on the same day [16] - Meituan plans to raise 9 to 10 billion yuan through the issuance of dim sum bonds [17]

Report Overview - The report date is October 26, 2025, and it focuses on the bond market, aiming to solve core issues such as recent bond market trend review, institutional behavior changes, and future bond market trend outlook [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bond market showed an overall volatile performance in the latest week. The yield of the active 10-year Treasury bond remained flat at around 1.84%, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread narrowed. The divergence between interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) and the money market is notable. As of October 24, the spread between the 1Y CD yield and DR007 reached 27bp, the highest level this year. The reasons for the divergence may be that banks' demand for long - term stable liabilities has increased, the maturity pressure of CDs is significantly higher than the seasonal level, and the demand side of CDs has been weak since September but improved in the latest week. As of October 24, the 1Y AAA CD rate was 1.68%, which has investment value from the perspective of institutional behavior. Additionally, the money market was stable this week, with banks' net lending volume remaining above 4 trillion yuan. Large banks continued to buy medium - and short - term bonds and increased their allocation of 10Y China Development Bank bonds, while other products bought 30Y Treasury bonds [4][9][10] Section Summaries 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was volatile. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield was stable, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed. The divergence between CDs and the money market was significant. The reasons for the divergence are banks' increased demand for long - term stable liabilities, high CD maturity pressure, and the improvement of CD demand recently. The 1Y AAA CD has investment value. The money market was stable, and banks' net lending was high. Large banks and other products had specific bond - buying behaviors [4][9][10] 2. Bond Yield Curve Tracking 2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the 1Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.03bp to 1.47%, the 10Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.12bp to 1.85%, and the 30Y Treasury bond yield fell 0.36bp to 2.21%. The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread fell 0.24bp to 36.40bp, and the 10Y China Development Bank - 10Y Treasury bond spread fell 0.97bp to 15.27bp [11] 2.2 Treasury Bond Term Spread Changes - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread fell 0.69bp to 5.78bp, the 5Y - 3Y spread rose 1.36bp to 8.80bp, the 7Y - 5Y spread rose 0.44bp to 15.57bp, the 10Y - 7Y spread fell 1.26bp to 7.55bp, the 20Y - 10Y spread rose 1.49bp to 35.06bp, and the 30Y - 20Y spread fell 1.73bp to 1.34bp [13] 3. Bond Market Leverage and Money Market 3.1 Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the inter - bank pledged repurchase balance decreased by 0.38 trillion yuan to 11.48 trillion yuan [16] 3.2 Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.25pct to 106.92% [17] 3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From October 20 to October 24, the average pledged repurchase turnover was 7.83 trillion yuan, and the average overnight repurchase turnover was about 7.01 trillion yuan, with an average overnight trading ratio of 89.55% [18][21] 3.4 Inter - bank Money Market Operation - From October 20 to October 24, banks' net lending first decreased, then increased, and then decreased again. As of October 24, large banks and policy banks' net lending was 4.53 trillion yuan, joint - stock banks and city and rural commercial banks' net borrowing was 0.51 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 4.03 trillion yuan. Banks' daily lending also showed a similar trend. As of October 24, large banks and policy banks' daily lending was 3.94 trillion yuan, and small and medium - sized banks' daily lending was 0.46 trillion yuan. In terms of money market rates, as of October 24, DR001 was 1.3221%, DR007 was 1.4110%, R001 was 1.3802%, and R007 was 1.4649% [22] 4. Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of October 24, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.60 years, up 0.02 years from October 20; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.63 years, up 0.01 years from October 20 [33] 4.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds - As of October 24, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.63 years, up 0.08 years from October 20, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.35 years, up 0.02 years from October 20. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.29 years, up 0.06 years from October 20, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.39 years, up 0.01 years from October 20 [34] 5. Changes in Bond Lending Balance - As of October 24, compared with October 20, the borrowing volume of 10Y Treasury bonds decreased overall [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View Over the past half - week, the bond market showed an overall weak and volatile trend, characterized by "strong stocks and weak bonds, with sentiment disturbances as the main factor." The strong performance of A - shares and the rising expectations of Sino - US negotiations led to an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. There was no urgent expectation for short - term interest rate cuts, resulting in insufficient motivation for loose trading. Emotional fluctuations made funds more inclined to play short - term bands rather than take long - term positions. The new redemption fee rules, active bond switching, and the wait - and - see sentiment before the release of external CPI data also suppressed long - term allocation demand. The bond market remained in a weak and volatile range, mainly reflecting the defensive behavior of trading desks and profit - taking at high levels. In the short term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the stock market and the emotional recovery after the release of external inflation data [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - level - **Macro - policies**: On August 1, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, VAT would be restored on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. Previously issued bonds would still be exempt until maturity. From August 12, 2025, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, boost service consumption, and expand effective investment. The finance minister promised more proactive macro - policies, and the NDRC aimed to release domestic demand potential and manage over - capacity. In October, the US imposed export controls and special port fees on Chinese entities, and Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 [1]. - **Inflation**: In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [1]. Capital - level - **Fiscal**: The fiscal data showed "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion." In the first three quarters, the general public budget revenue increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on individual income tax, VAT, and stamp duty. The expenditure on social security, education, and debt interest payments maintained high growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still weak, with a narrowing decline in land sales but limited recovery, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2]. - **Financial**: Financial data continued to show "stable liquidity and structural deficiencies in broad credit." The M1 growth rate rose to 7.2%, and the gap narrowed, indicating improved business activity. However, social financing and credit were still at a low level, and enterprise medium - and long - term financing was weak. Government bonds were the main source of social financing growth, and the monetary policy remained moderately loose [2]. - **Central Bank**: On October 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market**: The main repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.41%, and 1.57% respectively, and the repo rates had recently increased [2]. Market - level - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On October 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.33 yuan, 105.62 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 115.01 yuan respectively. Their weekly fluctuations were - 0.002%, - 0.04%, - 0.1%, and - 0.25% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 0.14 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the rising repo rates and the fluctuating treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is considered neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Attention should be paid to the rebound of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].