Group 1: Market Overview - From June 9-13, the second round of China-US negotiations became a major variable affecting interest rate trends, with tariffs remaining unchanged, benefiting bonds and gold as safe-haven assets[1] - As the tax period approached, liquidity tightened, leading to cautious short-term pricing in the bond market, with interest rates and similar rate products slowing down[1] - The one-year government bond yield struggled to break 1.4%, resulting in an overly flat yield curve[3] Group 2: Liquidity and Central Bank Actions - Market concerns about liquidity stability eased as the month progressed, with 1.83 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit successfully renewed[2] - The central bank's proactive measures included increasing the daily open market operation (OMO) injection to 202.5 billion yuan on June 13, reflecting a firm stance on liquidity support[2] - The central bank's actions shifted from implicit to explicit, effectively guiding market expectations and stabilizing funding rates[2] Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - Historical analysis indicates that extreme flattening of the yield curve is often linked to central bank tightening, with subsequent steepening reliant on a shift in the central bank's stance[3] - The current yield curve is at a critical point where it may transition from flat to steep, contingent on the central bank's future actions and market adaptation[3] - The 10Y-1Y yield spread is currently at 24 basis points, placing it in the 13th percentile of historical data, indicating limited room for further compression[3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - In anticipation of a potential steepening of the yield curve, investment strategies should focus on increasing duration in portfolios, particularly in 10-year non-active bonds and high-quality local government bonds[6] - The duration of interest rate bond funds has reached a historical high of 5.23 years, while credit bond funds have risen to 2.43 years, indicating heightened risk exposure in the market[6] - Despite high duration levels, the market's sensitivity to negative factors may increase, necessitating careful monitoring of market conditions[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the future week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care for the capital market and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [1]. - In the future week, the maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [1]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a significant increase in net buying volume in the past week, while rural commercial banks have become the main seller [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The Central Bank Announces Another Injection of Medium - and Long - term Liquidity - In the statistical period (June 9 - 13, 2025), 7 - day reverse repurchase funds of 930.9 billion yuan matured, and the central bank injected 858.2 billion yuan of 7 - day funds, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.27 billion yuan for the whole week, and the OMO stock decreased to 858.2 billion yuan. The central bank announced a second - round 40 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation for the next week, achieving a net injection for the whole month [10]. - During the statistical period, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar depreciated by 1.52 basis points due to the uncertainty of US tariffs and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut [10]. - In terms of government bond progress, in the past week, the net financing of treasury bonds was 262.06 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3.10409 trillion yuan, completing 46.6% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 8.372 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2.00893 trillion yuan, completing 38.6% of the annual plan, with a slowdown in the issuance speed. As of June 13, 1.68 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts had been issued, completing 84.2% of the annual plan [13]. - In terms of capital structure, the lending scale of state - owned and joint - stock banks increased significantly to over 4.5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - banking institutions decreased slightly. The DR series declined, with overnight rates operating near the policy rate, and the spread between 7 - day rates and the policy rate narrowed to 10bp. The R series rose, and the liquidity stratification increased slightly but remained at a low level. The capital market showed a situation of "increasing volume and decreasing price" throughout the week, with a marginal tightening feeling on Thursday and Friday, and a balanced feeling for the whole week [15]. 1.2 CD Review: The Secondary - Market Interest Rate of CDs Declined Slightly, and the Demand from Core Buyers Strengthened - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was - 16.226 billion yuan in the statistical period, with a total issuance of 104.137 billion yuan and a maturity of 120.363 billion yuan. In the next three weeks, 102.164 billion, 113.781 billion, and 24.579 billion yuan of inter - bank CDs will mature respectively. The primary issuance rate decreased slightly, with an average issuance rate of 1.6744% (previous value: 1.7106%) [18]. - In the secondary market, core buyers such as funds and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, money market funds changed from selling to buying, large - scale banks continued to reduce their holdings, city commercial banks and rural commercial banks changed from buying to selling, and insurance and other non - banking institutions and other product accounts continued to increase their holdings. The secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week, and the yield curve steepened slightly. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by - 1.78BP/ - 2.00BP/ - 1.50BP/ - 1.05BP/ - 0.91BP respectively [20]. 1.3 Next - Week Focus: The Central Bank's Firm Care for the Capital Market and the Marginal Relief of CD Issuance Pressure - In terms of the capital market, the May social financing data showed that the credit demand of residents and enterprises had recovered compared with April, with a weak stabilization of overall credit demand. The increase in government bond supply drove the stable growth of social financing, which is expected to support the key period of fiscal expenditure in June. After the deposit rate cut in May, the phenomenon of deposit transfer emerged, with a significant increase in non - banking deposits. The central bank announced a second - round injection of 40 billion yuan of 6 - month outright repurchase in the middle of the month. Combined with the previous 100 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright repurchase and the 120 - billion - yuan maturity this month, the net injection of outright reverse repurchases for the whole month was 20 billion yuan. The central bank's small - scale net withdrawal in open - market operations in the past two weeks also showed its care for the capital market. It is expected that the market will price a positive signal on June 16, but the amplitude will be smaller than that on June 6. In the next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will decline, and the tax period will disrupt the capital market. Considering the central bank's care and the adequacy of its toolbox, the capital market is expected to maintain a balanced and slightly loose operation [24]. - In terms of CDs, on the supply side, the net financing of CDs remained negative in the past week. The central bank's injection of medium - and long - term liquidity relieved the liability pressure of banks, and the primary - market interest rate of CDs decreased slightly. On the demand side, the demand from core buyers strengthened marginally, and the secondary - market yields of CDs fluctuated and declined slightly during the week. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs will exceed one trillion, with significant supply pressure. However, the central bank's second - round injection of medium - and long - term funds is expected to marginally relieve the issuance pressure of CDs, and CD yields may show a fluctuating downward trend [25]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking Recent Considerations on Institutional Assets and Liabilities - The trends of the active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds deviated significantly at times recently. The main reasons are that the supply rhythms of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds were staggered in June, and the weak sentiment in the primary - market allocation disturbed the secondary - market. Since the beginning of the second quarter, interest rates have mainly fluctuated within a narrow range, and institutions had a strong desire to increase duration to obtain excess returns during the window of loose liquidity at the beginning of June. The trading volume of 30 - year treasury bonds increased more significantly than that of 10 - year treasury bonds. Looking forward, there will be no issuance pressure for 10 - year treasury bonds in the second half of June, and the capital price still shows certain volatility. The window period for institutions to increase duration may end, and the performance of 30 - year treasury bonds may not continue to outperform [27]. - The rotation of the bond - replacement market of China Development Bank (CDB) bonds has been very fast recently. When the bond - replacement of CDB active bonds accelerates, the volatility of new bonds will also increase. Therefore, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds has fluctuated significantly recently. In the short term, old bonds may be safer to avoid volatility [28]. Key Review of Institutional Secondary - Market Transactions - Large - scale banks continued to buy treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, with a buying volume of about 77.6 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - Funds have become the main buyer of interest - rate bonds, with a net buying volume of about 160.4 billion yuan in the past week, showing a significant increase. Rural commercial banks have become one of the main sellers, with a net selling volume of about 109.2 billion yuan in the past week [31]. - The main buyers of CDs are money market funds, wealth management products, and other products, while the main sellers are city commercial banks and securities firms [31]. - The net buying volume of main non - banking buyers of credit bonds increased. Funds, wealth management products, and other products were the main net buyers, with funds having the largest increase. Since late March, the net buying volume of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years has been generally stable, while the net buying volume of ultra - long - term credit bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years has fluctuated greatly, and the main non - banking buyers increased their buying volume significantly in the past week [31]. - For secondary - tier capital bonds, funds with a maturity of less than 2 years changed to net sellers, with a net selling volume of about 4.9 billion yuan in the past week, while wealth management products and other products changed to net buyers. The main buyers of 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier capital bonds continued to increase their buying volume, with funds having the largest net buying volume of about 36.2 billion yuan, and the banking system was the main net seller. The trading of 5 - 10 - year secondary - tier capital bonds remained light [31]. High - Frequency Data Tracking of Bond Market Micro - Structure - On June 13, the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds was 5.92bp, and the spread fluctuated and widened. The spread between 1 - year CDB bonds and R001 was 1.87BP, and the yield of short - term bonds was slightly higher than the capital price [33]. - The leverage ratio of the bond market in the week before the holiday was 107.72%, continuing to rise month - on - month [35].

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 央行呵护，资金再闯关 1、资金面聚焦：央行呵护，资金再闯关 本周资金面先紧后松，资金利率一度下破 1.4%的政策利率水平，国有大行 净融出规模行至年内高位，存单一二级收益率持稳。资金分层现象有所凸 显，但仍处偏低水平。 展望下周，资金面将迎来多重扰动，也一定程度增加对于银行负债端压力 的担忧，但整体或相对可控。一方面，本月第二次买断式逆回购将于月中 进行操作，月内净投放 2000 亿元，为二季度首次实现净投放，且这或与月 初的 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作、下旬开展的 MLF 操作将形成协同，分别 于月初、月中及月末时点进行呵护。后续也不排除这两类工具继续选择在 上述三个时点进行操作的可能，实现月内各阶段流动性的精准呵护，也有 利于引导市场形成较为稳定的预期。另一方面，5 月社融表现分化，外围 关税博弈也仍在持续，基本面磨底修复阶段仍需货币政策的保驾护航，央 行的呵护态度或仍在。 下周资金面关注因素：（1）逆回购到期 8582 亿元，规模小幅下行，MLF 回笼 1820 亿元；（2）政府债净缴款 1036 亿元，规模小幅回落，其中，国 债缴款规模较大；（3） ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery with government bond futures rising marginally, while interbank bond yields remained stable, indicating a structural liquidity gap and limited downward movement for short-term rates [1][5]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.02% to 120.500, the 10-year main contract up 0.02% to 109.020, the 5-year main contract up 0.04% to 106.175, and the 2-year main contract up 0.03% to 102.464 [2]. - The interbank major rate bonds showed slight divergence, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield down 0.35 basis points to 1.704%, while the 30-year government bond yield rose 0.2 basis points to 1.851% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 5 basis points to 3.897% and the 10-year yield down 6.11 basis points to 4.359% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly declined, with the 10-year yield down 4.9 basis points to 1.41% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also decreased, with French yields down 4.5 basis points to 3.179% and German yields down 6.1 basis points to 2.472% [3]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 2-year and 10-year government bonds at 1.38% and 1.6260%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.27 and 4.43 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2025 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 675 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising 4.4 basis points to 1.411% [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities expects limited impact from short-term fundamental recovery on the bond market, suggesting a focus on the upcoming political bureau meeting and monetary policy statements [6]. - Guosheng Securities advocates for a barbell strategy, emphasizing the importance of high-rated bonds while increasing holdings in mid-to-low priced convertible bonds and quality themes [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered after a series of domestic policies to stabilize the economy and the stock market. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. With the expected continuation of a loose capital environment and weak domestic demand recovery, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [5]. - For precious metals, the weak US PPI data and employment data have increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting the prices of gold and silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - For various non - ferrous metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Generally, short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - environment, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [9][10][14]. - In the black building materials sector, steel products, iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, and industrial silicon are all affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost. Most products are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21][24]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber, crude oil, methanol, urea, PVC, ethylene glycol, PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are given [33][39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean and rapeseed meal, oils and fats, sugar, and cotton are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and policies. Different trading strategies are recommended for each product [50][53][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.26%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1271.8 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount increased by 1.822 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate rose to 1.367%. It is recommended to buy long positions in IH or IF stock index futures on dips and consider long positions in IC or IM futures [2][3]. Treasury Bonds - The TL main contract rose 0.07%, while T, TF, and TS main contracts fell. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 786.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.53% to 8787 yuan/kg. The weak US PPI and employment data increased the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 0.45% to 9690 US dollars/ton. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the processing fee is stabilizing. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 78200 - 79200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9600 - 9800 US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 0.12% to 2519 US dollars/ton. The short - term price is expected to continue to rebound, but the upward space is limited. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20200 - 20480 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2480 - 2540 US dollars/ton [10]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in surplus, and zinc smelter profits are rising. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased, and the decline of zinc prices has been repeated [11][12]. Lead - The downstream consumption of lead is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is expected that the lead price will continue to be weak [13]. Nickel - The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rebounds. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to be loose, but there is still uncertainty in the short - term. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 US dollars/ton [15]. Carbonate Lithium - The supply of carbonate lithium has increased, and the inventory has risen slightly. It is expected that the contract will be weakly volatile. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's 2507 contract is 59500 - 60900 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - The alumina price is expected to be anchored by cost. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is expected to be slightly volatile in the short - term due to high inventory and weakening raw material prices [18]. Black Building Materials Steel Products - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a downward trend. The demand for steel products is weak, and the export volume has declined. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, demand recovery, and cost support [20]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. The supply has increased, the demand has weakened marginally, and the inventory has increased [21]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - term due to the lack of significant improvement in real - estate demand. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [22][23]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a downward trend since February. It is not recommended to buy on the left - hand side. The decline is due to factors such as weak commodities, over - capacity, and cost reduction [24][25]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is in a downward trend. It is due to over - capacity and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips easily [29][30]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The rubber price has fallen due to a poor macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see or use a neutral short - term trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [33][37]. Crude Oil - The WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose. It is not recommended to short due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [39]. Methanol - The methanol price has rebounded weakly. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. Urea - The urea price has fallen due to high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. PVC - The PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile due to strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not fulfilled [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction [43]. PTA - The PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [44]. p - Xylene - The PX is expected to slow down de - stocking in June and enter a new de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price is expected to be volatile. The supply pressure will be relieved in June, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price is expected to be bearish in June due to planned capacity expansion and weakening demand [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price is mainly stable with partial small declines. The near - month contract is expected to be volatile, and the far - month contract can be shorted on rallies [50]. Eggs - The egg price is mostly stable with partial weakening. The near - month contract can be shorted on rallies, and attention should be paid to the support of the far - month contract [51][52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price has fallen. The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory pressure is postponed. The new - year US soybean may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range of the 09 contract [53][54]. Oils and Fats - The palm oil price has support due to low inventory in some regions, but it is still under pressure if the production recovers rapidly. It is expected to be volatile [55][57]. Sugar - The sugar price has fallen. The international supply tension may have passed, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. The sugar price is likely to weaken in the future [58]. Cotton - The cotton price is expected to be volatile. The downstream start - up rate has not declined significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall commodity market is still in a downward trend [59].

5月降息至今，银行负债端的"存款搬家"现象、同业存单到期续发压力、二季度自营账户投资收益考核 指标，一定程度上都正使其相应调整资产配置端行为。其中，大行的资金"水位"边际变化尤为关键，或 已成为影响现阶段债市走势的核心变量之一。 进入6月以来，债市再度走强的势头明显。 利率债成交行情"暖意"再现，截至6月12日发稿时，本月10年期国债活跃券收益率在窄幅震荡中延续下 行趋势，其收益率自5月29日1.6975%的高点一路下行，截至6月12日发稿时最低触及1.6350%，逐步逼 近去年年底创下1.6%附近的历史低位。 资料来源：DM 究其原因，今年以来，在外部扰动有限的情况下，商业银行资产负债端的流动性变化已成债市一大"主 线"。 一位国有行金融市场部人士告诉记者："最近大行融出量确实挺大的，上周央行开展买断式逆回购后， 压力已经小了很多。个人对后市看法还是偏多头，中长债的配置吸引力相对会强一些。不过10年期国债 1.6%的前低关口可能要突破还是比较难，预计现阶段就是在几个BP之间来回做波段交易吧。" 资金面压力缓解 同业存单降价拐点初现 记者注意到，本月4.2亿元"天量"到期的同业存单曾一度成为悬在债市投资人士心 ...

光大期货金融期货日报 | 债市关注点再度回归资金面变化。受到同业存单到期压力较大、政府债发行 | | | --- | --- | | 继续放量影响，市场对 | 6 月资金面阶段性收紧担忧有所增加。上周四央行提 | | 前公布 | 3 个月期买断式逆回购操作量净投放 5000 亿元，市场资金面担忧明 | | 显缓解，债市呈现小幅牛陡走势。短期来看，资金面紧张预期走弱，债市有 | | | 望偏强震荡。 | | 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场多数指数回调，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.68%，成交额 1.45 万亿元。 | | | | 中证 1000 指数下跌 0.92%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.82%，沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.51%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.39%。指数午盘后快速下跌，之后回升企稳，TMT | | | | 板块回调明显。自 6 月以来，中国资产表现偏强，股债齐升，计价 6 月可能 | | | | 存在的政策变化。其 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on the existence of obvious Alpha returns. The market's focus remains on the consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry in China is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policy support. In June, these two sectors are expected to be the main focus of the market. The bond market's focus has returned to changes in the capital side. Although there were concerns about capital tightening in June, after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - The stock index futures are expected to oscillate, and the bond futures are also expected to oscillate [1]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The large basis of stock index futures reflects market hedging demand, which depends on Alpha returns. Last week, the market's focus was on consumer and technology sectors. The high - tech manufacturing industry is in a capital expenditure expansion cycle, and the consumer sector benefits from policies. In May, the retail of three major white - goods maintained a high year - on - year growth rate (over 60% each), and passenger car retail remained booming (16% year - on - year). There may be a pulse in overseas demand for textile, clothing, and electronic products due to "rush - to - export" [1]. - **Bond Futures**: On June 10, 2025, the 30 - year bond futures main contract rose 0.35%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts were basically stable. The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan. Capital interest rates declined slightly. The bond market's focus has returned to the capital side. Due to large maturing pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased government bond issuance, there were concerns about capital tightening in June, but after the central bank's operations, the expectation of capital tightening has weakened, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, IH rose 3.0 points (0.11%), IF rose 12.4 points (0.32%), IC rose 41.0 points (0.72%), and IM rose 67.6 points (1.11%) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index fell 2.0 points (- 0.08%), the CSI 300 Index rose 11.3 points (0.29%), the CSI 500 Index rose 43.6 points (0.76%), and the CSI 1000 Index rose 66.1 points (1.07%) [4]. - **Bond Futures**: TS remained unchanged (0.00%), TF fell 0.015 points (- 0.01%), T rose 0.075 points (0.07%), and TL rose 0.36 points (0.30%) [4]. Market News - In May 2025, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 8.1%), and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.2%) [5]. - In May 2025, the national consumer price index decreased 0.1% year - on - year. From January to May, the average national consumer price index decreased 0.1% compared with the same period last year [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their respective basis trends [7][8][11]. - **Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of bond futures main contracts, bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward US dollar against the RMB for 1M and 3M, forward euro against the RMB for 1M and 3M, US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][25].

Market Performance - The performance of government bond futures showed divergence, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35% and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.09%, while the 5-year and 2-year main contracts remained unchanged [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 173.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan for the day. The overnight pledged repo rate fell below 1.4%, indicating a more relaxed funding environment [2] Economic Fundamentals - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year. The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year. Exports in May increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of 103.22 billion USD [3] Operational Recommendations - The low inflation data and weaker-than-expected export figures suggest a cautious outlook. The market is expected to focus on future tariff negotiations and fundamental changes. The bond market may strengthen due to a more relaxed funding environment, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.60% and 1.75% and the 30-year yield between 1.80% and 1.95% [4]

回踩入场，最怕的就是真反转；突破入场，最怕的就是假突破。 在顺大势下，这些担心的"真反 转"和"假突破"，都已经变为小概率事件。我们不能为小概率事件缩手缩脚，而要为大概率系统严格执 行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | | (2025.06.09) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成义中 (亿 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.42 | 8 | 11/2 | 2. 00 | 115 | 67710. 16 | 213. 67 | 91.51 | | R007 | 1.54 | -1 | Non/ 1 | 2. 05 | 0 | 5248. 91 | -894. 45 | 7.09 | | R014 | 1.59 | -1 | 1 /VI | 2. 00 | 218 | 759. 37 | 115. 90 ...