2025年4月的最后一周，全球资本市场的目光聚焦在美股与A股的联动上。自4月23日至25日，美股三大 指数连续三日收高，纳斯达克指数累计涨幅超过6.7%，特斯拉单周暴涨近25%，科技巨头如英伟达、微 软、谷歌等推动市场情绪持续升温。然而，就在美股狂欢之际，A股投资者却在焦虑：周一的A股能否 跟涨？还是会因内外压力再度陷入震荡？ 美股的狂欢：科技股与政策预期的双重驱动 美股的这轮上涨，表面是科技股的狂欢，背后却是政策预期与市场博弈的交织。4月22日，特斯拉CEO 马斯克宣布将更多精力投入公司运营，叠加美国政府对自动驾驶法规的松绑，特斯拉股价应声大涨近 10%。与此同时，美联储官员接连释放降息信号——克利夫兰联储行长梅斯特称"6月可能开始降息"， 理事沃勒也表示"若关税冲击就业，将支持降息"。市场对宽松货币政策的期待，直接推动了科技股等高 成长板块的估值修复。 然而，这轮反弹的根基并不牢固。特朗普政府的关税政策仍是悬在头顶的"达摩克利斯之剑"。尽管特朗 普暗示"可能撤回部分对华关税"，但美国商务部随即否认了相关谈判进展，中方亦坚持要求"全面撤销 关税"。这种矛盾的表态让市场陷入反复摇摆：一方面，投资者押注关税缓和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lufax Holding's recent announcement addresses market concerns regarding its auditor change, showcasing its commitment to investor relations and providing a clearer basis for reassessing the company's value [1] Group 1: Independent Investigation and Management Changes - The independent investigation revealed that past accounting issues were not due to profit transfer but aimed at protecting retail investors, with no malicious intent found among management [2] - The company has made significant governance improvements, including appointing a new independent non-executive chairman and CFO, and establishing a special committee led by independent directors to enhance board independence [2][3] Group 2: Financial Impact and Business Transition - The board estimates that adjustments to the asset side for 2022 will not exceed 0.5%, with a projected net profit reduction of 8-15% for 2023 [3] - The company has initiated recovery procedures from related parties, expecting to recover about 70% of disposal costs, indicating limited financial impact from the related transactions [3] - The transition to a 100% guaranteed business model has been completed, isolating historical transactions from current growth engines, thus maintaining the integrity of future financial data [4][5] Group 3: Operational Performance and Growth Prospects - The company reported a significant increase in new loans, with Q4 2024 reaching 694 billion yuan, a 47.6% year-on-year growth, and Q1 2025 at 573 billion yuan, up 19.1% [6] - The overdue rate for loans has improved, decreasing from 5.2% in Q3 2024 to 4.5% in Q1 2025, while the non-performing loan rate for consumer finance remains stable at 1.2% [7] - The company's revenue rate has increased to 9.7%, indicating a potential acceleration in profitability as it transitions to a fully guaranteed business model [7] Group 4: Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Following the announcement, Lufax's stock rose by 12.6%, reflecting positive market sentiment and a cumulative increase of 27% since the previous announcement [8] - The company's ability to navigate challenges while maintaining strategic focus positions it favorably for future value reassessment, especially as it demonstrates strong governance and operational resilience [9]

2025 年 4 月 27 日 行业研究 一季度均重显著抬升，养殖利润持续缩窄 ——光大证券农林牧渔行业周报（20250421-20250427） 要点 投资建议：（1）生猪养殖板块，预期交易充分背景下，板块当前安全边际较 大。结合前期新生仔猪量来看，25H1 商品猪出栏压力较大，上半年可能开启 去产能交易。重点推荐出栏、成本兑现度高的养殖企业牧原股份、神农集团， 建议关注温氏股份、巨星农牧。（2）后周期板块，生猪存栏量回升将提振饲 料、动保需求，估值修复板块将开启上行，建议关注海大集团。（3）种植链， 中美关税摩擦再度将大宗农产品带到舞台中央，粮价走强背景下，大种植投资 机会凸显，种植链建议关注苏垦农发、北大荒、海南橡胶、秋乐种业、隆平高 科、登海种业。（4）宠物板块，宠食行业是"长坡厚雪"的优质赛道，海外市 场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提升，建议关注乖宝宠物、中宠股份、佩蒂 股份等。 风险分析：畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动。 农林牧渔 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：李晓渊 执业证书编号：S0930523100002 021-52523881 lixiaoyuan@ebscn.c ...

Core Viewpoint - Changshu Bank achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in Q1 2025, despite a slight slowdown in scale growth due to weak credit demand. The recovery of the economy is expected to improve demand from small and micro enterprises, providing significant room for credit expansion. Although the net interest margin continues to narrow under asset-side pressure, the ongoing optimization of deposit costs is expected to support the margin. The bank is projected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit release in 2025. The current low dividend rate has suppressed the bank's valuation, which does not align with its strong fundamentals, indicating substantial potential for valuation recovery if the dividend rate improves in the future [1][10][11]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Changshu Bank reported operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio was 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 489.6% [2][3][9]. Revenue Composition - The bank's net interest income grew by 0.9% year-on-year, reflecting stable growth despite weak credit demand, particularly in small and micro loans. Non-interest income surged by 495.2%, driven by significant growth in fees from insurance and precious metals. Other non-interest income increased by 48.8%, supported by a rise in foreign exchange gains [3][4][5]. Credit Demand and Loan Growth - Credit demand remains weak, leading to a slowdown in loan growth. In Q1 2025, the loan scale increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 7.3% and retail loans by only 0.2%. The bank's strategy of focusing on small and scattered loans has allowed it to maintain a stable loan portfolio despite the challenging environment [5][6][8]. Deposit and Funding Strategy - Changshu Bank's deposits grew by 9% year-on-year, with a notable increase in demand deposits and a reduction in high-cost savings. The bank's proactive management of deposit structure has improved the cost of funding, which is expected to support the net interest margin [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and it has effectively managed retail asset quality through rigorous risk control and increased write-offs. The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable, allowing for a gradual release of provisions to support profit growth [9][10]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - Despite strong fundamentals, Changshu Bank's current valuation is significantly undervalued at 0.68 times the 2025 PB ratio. The low dividend yield has constrained its valuation, but there is substantial potential for recovery if the dividend rate improves. The bank is expected to maintain high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit profit growth in the coming years [10][11].

为深入贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会、中央经济工作会议、全国两会精神和国务院常务会议部署，深入学 习领会"稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击"的重要要求，4月21日上海证券交易所召开专 题座谈会，与10余家头部私募机构代表深入交流，充分听取意见建议。 与会机构表示，近期美国通过关税政策构筑贸易壁垒，引发全球风险资产剧烈波动。在党中央坚强领导和 有力部署下，稳市政策密集出台，中央汇金等中国版"平准基金"在关键时刻加大稳市力度，各市场主体纷 纷响应自发回购增持，合力推动股市企稳回升。关税短期冲击不改中国资本市场长期向好趋势，充足的宏 观政策调节工具、广阔的内需市场、引领产业发展的新兴科技和具备韧性的供应链体系为资本市场平稳向 好提供重要经济基本面支撑。新"国九条""科创板八条""并购六条"等落地实施，上市公司积极分红回购， 持续加大股东回报，中国股市长期投资价值持续提升。 与会机构认为，当前中国资产估值处于相对较低水平，随着国内经济结构优化、政策利好和关税冲击下全 球资金再平衡，中国资产具备显著的估值修复和提升潜力，将坚定持有中国优质资产，树牢"长期、理 性、价值"投资理念，共同维护资本市场平稳运行。 来源 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Recommended" [3][38]. Core Views - The impact of the tariff policy on the building materials industry is limited, and the real estate sector is expected to drive domestic demand, leading to industry valuation recovery [5][38]. - In March 2025, the average cement shipment rate increased by approximately 26 percentage points month-on-month and 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating seasonal recovery in demand [16][38]. - The glass industry is experiencing slow demand recovery, with overall market prices expected to remain weak in April 2025 [39][40]. - The fiberglass sector is seeing strong demand from wind power and new energy vehicles, with the tariff policy having a limited impact on the industry [30][31][38]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - In March 2025, the national cement production reached 158 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, showing better-than-expected performance [10]. - The average price of cement in March 2025 was 394.92 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan from February [16][38]. - Key stocks to watch include Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), Huaxin Cement (600801.SH), and Conch Cement (600585.SH) [16][38]. Glass Industry - The flat glass production in the first quarter of 2025 was 234 million weight boxes, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [23]. - The overall market demand is expected to improve in April, but the growth pace remains slow [39][40]. - Key stocks to consider are Qibin Group (601636.SH) and Jinjing Technology (600586.SH) [39][40]. Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a slight increase in PPI, with strong demand from the wind power and new energy vehicle sectors [30][31]. - The tariff policy has a limited impact on the fiberglass and products industry, with a focus on expanding domestic markets [31][38]. - Key stocks to monitor include China Jushi (600176.SH) and Zhongcai Technology (002080.SZ) [31][38]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is expected to benefit from real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with limited impact from the tariff policy [9][40]. - Key stocks to focus on include Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ) [9][40].

公开资料显示，朝阳科技成立于2005年3月，于2020年4月在深交所挂牌上市，主营业务是声学产品（耳 机、音响）业务、精密零组件业务等。2024年半年报显示，公司进入了苹果、Beats、安克、三星、H客 户等知名智能终端及耳机品牌商的供应链。 对于此次美方豁免部分产品"对等关税"，机构普遍认为，受关税政策影响，苹果供应链公司前期跌幅较 大，有望迎来修复机会。 华泰证券最新研报指出，本次"对等关税豁免"利好国内果链/PCB公司，后续核心矛盾或回归整体需求 以及创新节奏，看好中国企业竞争力以及估值修复行情。 信达证券研报认为，根据更新指南，英伟达、苹果等相关产品符合豁免政策。尽管后续仍存在不确定性 及政策变动可能，但自美国对等关税政策宣布以来，避险情绪引致果链和算力链较大回调，当下相关个 股估值水平已大幅偏离基本面，建议关注修复良机。 4月14日，受利好消息刺激，A股苹果概念股大幅高开，朝阳科技（002981.SZ）、超声电子 （000823.SZ）、瀛通通讯（002861.SZ）等涨停，歌尔股份（002241.SZ）、蓝思科技（300433.SZ）、 立讯精密（002475.SZ）等涨幅居前。 港股苹果概念股同 ...

Market Analysis - The report discusses the impact of Trump's 2.0 tariffs, highlighting that both China and the US have imposed tariffs of 125% on each other's goods, with Canada and the EU also retaliating. Recent actions indicate a potential easing of tensions, as the US announced exemptions for certain products [1][10][12] - Major asset classes experienced volatility, with the VIX index rising sharply, US Treasuries and the dollar facing sell-offs, and gold prices surpassing 3200. The report notes a significant drop in oil prices and a recovery in A-shares after a sharp decline [1][12][13] Domestic Economic Indicators - In March, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline at -0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a wider decline at -2.5%. The PPI-CPI gap widened, indicating a growing disparity between production and consumer prices [2][30] - The report highlights a recovery in industrial production, with specific sectors like methanol and pure alkali showing improvement, while others like tire and polyester experienced declines [2][41] International Economic Indicators - US inflation rates continued to decline in March, with the CPI at 2.4% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.8%. The report notes a decrease in energy prices contributing to this trend [3][49][50] - The report tracks significant geopolitical events, including ongoing discussions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, which may impact global economic stability [3][45][46] Industry Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividend stocks. It emphasizes the importance of valuation in the consumer sector and the potential for recovery driven by policy support [4][43]

市场风高浪急，交易要逆水行舟。 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 70 后的洪灏留长发、戴圆眼镜、常系一条红色领带，配合总是生无可恋的表情，风格自成一派。 经 历了过去一周全球资本市场的风云突变，他对接下来中国资产的价格走势判断继续保持谨慎乐观。 4 月 2 日特朗普对外宣布美国新的关税政策并定于 4 月 9 日全面生效，数十年的全球贸易链条被斩 断、世界性经济衰退的警报被拉响，将资本市场推入数十年不遇的恐慌。美股经历多日暴跌，市场最 高蒸发超 6.5 万亿美元。 对此，现任华福国际（香港）金融控股有限公司 CEO 的洪灏已数次提醒投资者，面对当下无序的暴 跌需稍安勿躁，不要轻易尝试参与任何的美股反弹。 本周，不确定性仍在进一步加剧。 4 月 7 日，中国对美国表态坚决反制后的第一个交易日，A 股和港 股经历了 "黑色星期一" 的冲击——全市场收盘跌停个股逾 2900 只，A 股总市值一天蒸发 7.6 万亿 元，港股则遭遇其历史上第二大单日暴跌。4 月 8 日，美国报复性宣布对中国输美商品征收 "对等关 税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。随后在 4 月 9 日，中国政府回击，反制进一 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 估值修复逻辑走弱，业绩验证逻 辑升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 4 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。最近的股市成交量能接连走弱，说明投资者观望情绪有所上 升。最新的制造业 PMI 数据表明宏观经济保持复苏态势，意味着短期内政策端增量利好的必要性不 强，接下来政策端利好驱动边际减弱。海外方面，美国政府的关税政策以及美联储货币政策存在较大 的不确定性，短期内央行降息的可能性下降。另外， ...