丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨中科飞测（688361.SH） [Table_Title] 中科飞测：研发维持高水平投入，定增落地助力 未来产能扩张 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 5.00 亿元，同比增长 43.30%；归母净利润为 0.04 亿元，同比减少 77.33%；扣非净利润为-0.30 亿元，同比减少 188.66%；毛利率为 48.69%，同比减少 0.95pct。 2025Q1-Q3 公司实现营业收入 12.02 亿元，同比增长 47.92%；归母净利润为-0.15 亿元，同 比增长 71.67%；扣非净利润为-1.40 亿元，同比减少 11.61%；毛利率为 51.97%，同比增长 4.28pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 赵智勇 倪蕤 王泽罡 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520030003 SAC：S0490521120001 SFC：BUW100 SFC：BRP550 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% % ...

点击注册小程序 国产替代驱动需求持续强劲，存储涨价短暂扰动部分逻辑电路出货节奏 1）整体需求强劲，持续供不应求。公司预计AI需求持续旺盛，其他领域实现温和增长，当前订单相对产 线仍然供不应求。2）受益国产替代。国产替代趋势，使得中芯国际客户的订单和市场份额提升，进而带 动中芯国际代工份额；目前模拟芯片、存储器、CIS等产业链积极向国内切换。3）存储缺芯短暂影响出 货。手机等终端厂商因不确定未来存储拿货情况，因此短期不敢积极拉货逻辑电路，我们认为更多是出货 节奏问题、不影响整体需求表现。 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 3Q25业绩全面超预期。3Q25收入23.82亿美元，YoY+9.7%，QoQ+7.8%，超过公司QoQ+5%~+7%指引区 间上限、和市场预期(23.47亿美元) ...

周五，上证指数再度跌回4000点下方，收盘未能守住3994点这一短期多空分水岭，指数跌破5日均线且5日均线已经拐头 向下，短线趋势明显走弱。创业板指单日跌幅接近2.82%，情绪层面受到明显打击，成长风格承压更重。 当前市场围绕三个关键点位运行：3994点、3900点、3750点，这三个位置分别对应：短线趋势分界、中期均线支撑与中 级上升趋势底线。 3994点：短线趋势与情绪的"水面线" 近期反弹的高位平台基本围绕3994点附近反复争夺，站稳则短线资金敢于博弈反弹，不稳则资金更偏防守。 周五跌破且5日线拐头向下，意味着上一轮"急反弹"阶段已经告一段落，大盘进入震荡回落—考验下方支撑的新阶段。 周一即便受利好刺激高开，如果不能重新有效站回3994点并放量站稳，其意义仍偏"情绪修复"而非趋势反转。 3900点：60日均线与中期多空分界 有效守住60日线，多为中期上升趋势中的"技术性回踩"，后市仍有再上攻机会，类似今年5月底一带的节奏。 若有效跌破60日线并放量杀跌，往往会触发一轮明显的恐慌盘宣泄，形成"快速大幅杀跌"，去年12月底就是典型案例。 按当前均线运行节奏，下周60日均线大致将上移至3900点附近，这一区域 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: 科拓生物 (Keto Bio) - **Industry**: Probiotics - **Market Size**: The domestic probiotics market has exceeded 100 billion, with significant growth potential as per capita consumption is much lower than overseas markets [2][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: The probiotics market is driven by increasing consumer awareness and clinical trial support, with a shift from imported brands to local brands due to better alignment with local needs [2][3] - **Production Capacity**: The new factory in Inner Mongolia is expected to significantly enhance production capacity, with projected revenues of around 600 million by 2027 [2][4] - **C-end Brand Development**: The company has incubated C-end brands, 乌卡实验室 (Uka Lab) and MBB, with Uka Lab expected to generate 1.5 billion in revenue next year and MBB projected to reach 200-500 million [2][5][6] - **Business Structure Adjustment**: Probiotics have become the main growth driver, accounting for over 70% of revenue, while the contribution from food additives has decreased [2][7] Industry Dynamics - **Market Potential**: The probiotics industry is seen as a blue ocean market with significant growth potential due to increasing health-conscious consumer behavior and aging population [3][11] - **Consumer Shift**: There is a notable shift in consumer preference from imported brands to domestic brands, driven by the recognition of the benefits of probiotics for gut health and other areas [3][12] - **Competition**: The company has established a strong competitive position through extensive R&D, clinical trials, and partnerships with well-known brands [16][20] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: By 2027, total revenue is expected to reach approximately 760 million, with a net profit of around 200 million [3][21] - **Market Valuation**: The company’s valuation is projected to exceed 5 billion, with potential for doubling based on the performance of C-end brands and overall market growth [21][22] Additional Important Insights - **R&D and Technology**: The company has a robust R&D team and the largest lactic acid bacteria resource library globally, which supports its competitive edge [15][16] - **Impact of Trade Policies**: The trade war has prompted domestic brands to seek local alternatives, benefiting the company due to its cost advantages and product quality [17] - **Production Expansion**: The new Inner Mongolia factory is set to become the largest probiotics factory in Asia, significantly increasing the company's production capacity [4][18] Conclusion - **Long-term Growth Potential**: The company is well-positioned for long-term growth in the probiotics market, with strong fundamentals, a diversified product portfolio, and a strategic focus on local consumer needs [2][20]

Summary of Semiconductor Equipment & Foundry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global semiconductor industry experienced unexpected growth in Q3, driven by increased capital expenditure overseas, with expectations for continued high growth into 2026. AI demand is a key driver, but its sustainability will determine how long this semiconductor cycle remains elevated [1][2][3] Key Company Insights TSMC - TSMC's Q3 performance significantly outpaced the industry average, with revenue growth around 40% and gross margin nearing 60%. The strong demand for AI has led TSMC to increase its capital expenditure. The High-Performance Computing (HPC) segment now accounts for over 50% of its revenue, indicating that AI has become a dominant force in the high-end market. If AI growth continues, TSMC's revenue and profit margins have room for further increases [3][4] UMC and SMIC - The consumer electronics sector remains weak, with UMC and other overseas foundries underperforming. In contrast, SMIC benefits from domestic opportunities, achieving high capacity utilization and exceeding expected gross margins. Q4 revenue is projected to grow sequentially, with a year-on-year growth rate close to 10% [5][6] Hua Hong - Hua Hong focuses on industrial and automotive sectors, experiencing rapid growth due to accelerated domestic production. Its growth rate exceeds that of SMIC at around 20%, with high capacity utilization and significant margin improvements. As the largest power analog MCU foundry in China, Hua Hong's future outlook is positive [6][7] Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The semiconductor equipment sector is lagging behind the industry cycle, but capacity shortages are driving increased investment in equipment. Companies like TSMC have raised capital expenditures, and memory manufacturers are expected to expand further next year, enhancing the industry's outlook. Equipment growth is projected to exceed 20% starting in the second half of 2024 [8][9] Market Dynamics - The global foundry and semiconductor equipment markets performed well in Q3, driven by AI investment demand in overseas markets and strong demand for mature process foundries in the domestic market. The overall semiconductor growth in Q3 was again above expectations, with rising capital expenditures anticipated for 2026 [2][10] Storage Industry Insights - The storage industry is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to strong sales from Apple and rapid growth in the AI market, leading to a shortage of storage chips. This situation is expected to persist until at least the second half of 2026, despite potential acceleration in domestic production [13][14] Future Trends - The semiconductor equipment industry's growth is expected to continue, with historical cycles indicating a 50% increase in demand following each expansion phase. The current industry size is over $120 billion, with projections for growth to $150 billion in the next cycle [9][12] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a robust cycle driven by AI demand, with key players like TSMC and SMIC capitalizing on domestic opportunities. The equipment sector is poised for growth, and the storage market is currently constrained, indicating a complex but promising landscape for investors [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Pet Food Industry Industry Overview - The pet economy in China has reached a scale of 155.7 billion yuan, with pet food occupying a core position, accounting for approximately 50% of the overall market. Pet staple food accounts for about 36%, indicating significant potential in the pet food market [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - Pet food is primarily divided into staple food, snacks, and health products, with staple food further segmented into dry and wet food. The future trend indicates that puffed food will remain mainstream, but baked food, prescription food, functional feed, and age-specific products will see rapid growth, suggesting a more diversified product structure [1][4]. - Online channels are the main battleground for the pet food market, with 57.7% of consumers choosing to purchase pet staple food online. Platforms like Taobao and Tmall account for over 50% of the market share, while Douyin and Xiaohongshu are suitable for new product promotion, highlighting the importance of online marketing [1][5]. Competitive Landscape - The market competition is stratified, with foreign brands dominating the high-end market, while domestic brands perform well in the mid-to-low-end market. Domestic brands are gradually replacing foreign brands by launching mid-to-high-end products to meet the demand for consumption upgrades [1][6]. - According to the Tmall 618 sales list, the market share of foreign brands has declined, while domestic brands have risen. Consumer preference for domestic brands has increased, with 35% and 33% of consumers preferring Chinese brands for cat and dog staple foods, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6-7 percentage points [1][6]. Future Outlook - The overall scale of the pet economy is projected to reach 300 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7%. The cat and dog markets are expected to be 144.5 billion yuan and 155.7 billion yuan, respectively, with the cat market growing faster than the dog market [2]. - The trend of smaller family sizes and the desire for companionship are driving an increase in pet ownership and consumption upgrades. The average spending per pet is also showing a marginal upgrade trend, indicating that the pet economy, particularly the staple food segment, is likely to maintain high single-digit to double-digit growth [7]. Additional Important Points - The demand for mid-to-high-end pet food is expected to increase under the trend of refined feeding, providing ample development space for domestic brands. Companies should seize opportunities to enhance product quality and brand influence to meet market demands [3][7].

证券代码：300689 证券简称：澄天伟业 编号：2025-009 深圳市澄天伟业科技股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | | ☑ 特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | 媒体采访 业绩说明会 □ □ | | 动类别 | □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 其他 □ □ | | | 东方财富、新财富、国泰海通、证金投资、壹润投资、涵崧基金、 | | | 恒泰永成基金、亚太汇金基金、瑞联私募基金、中大情私募基金、 | | 参与单位名称 | 民沣资本、尚颀资本、松禾资本、盈然资本、林亿资本、鼎爵资本、 | | /人员姓名 | 财沣投资、前海坚石资管、前海阶石资本、瑞业资管、翰烜资管、 | | | 金港湾私募基金、嘉亿资管、云众创融投资、北大纵横管理咨询集团 | | | 有限公司及个人投资者 | | 时间 | 2025 年 11 月 14 日 | | 地点 | 深圳市南山区粤海街道高新区社区高新南九道 10 号深圳湾科技生态 | | | 园 10 栋 B 座 34 楼公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待 | 董事：宋嘉斌 | | | 董事会秘书、财务总监：蒋伟 ...

老铁们，周末的财经圈可不平静，几条重磅消息接连炸锅，下周的A股剧本恐怕要改写！我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮，今天就用中长线视角，带你捋清这 些事件背后的机会与风险。 · 防守端：关注低估值高股息品种，比如银行股（净利润前三季度1.9万亿），经济复苏背景下息差企稳，性价比凸显； · 进攻端：瞄准国产替代（半导体设备、储能集成）和消费新场景（智能家居、新能源车），尤其三季报超预期且政策加持的标的； · 避坑提示：警惕解禁高峰（下周解禁市值近千亿）和业绩暴雷股，像合富中国这种停牌核查的题材股，千万别碰。 帮主常说："消息面决定短期波动，产业趋势才是长期收益的根基"。当前市场分化加剧，恰恰是优化持仓的好时机——丢掉讲故事的公司，守住有技术的硬 核资产。 1. AI与算力：华为宣布将发布AI突破性技术，闽浙粤三省加速算力基建，叠加美股芯片巨头被桥水减持，国产算力产业链（光模块、液冷、服务器）的替 代逻辑更坚定了； 2. 储能爆发：新型储能装机量全球第一，政策端连续发力，宁德时代虽遭减持184亿，但储能订单排到明年，行业景气度不改； 3. 脑机接口：首次被列入国家未来产业，技术临床突破加速，这个从0到1的赛道，适合长线埋 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of semiconductor silicon wafers in modern technology, highlighting their importance in the global tech competition and national security [2][5][12] - It provides a comprehensive overview of the semiconductor industry, including market trends, technological barriers, and future opportunities driven by AI and self-sufficiency [8][12][61] Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is foundational to the information industry, characterized by high production complexity, rapid technological iteration, and significant investment risks [5][7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow from $335.2 billion in 2015 to $627.6 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.22% [10] - China's semiconductor market is expected to expand from $98.2 billion in 2015 to $182.2 billion by 2024, driven by national policies and increasing domestic demand [11][12] Semiconductor Materials Overview - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow from $43.3 billion in 2015 to $67.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 5.06% [14] - China's semiconductor materials market is expected to grow from $6.8 billion in 2016 to $13.5 billion by 2024, outpacing global growth [19] Semiconductor Silicon Wafers - Semiconductor silicon wafers are essential for producing integrated circuits and sensors, with a complex manufacturing process involving multiple scientific disciplines [22][23] - The main types of silicon wafers include 2-inch, 3-inch, 4-inch, 6-inch, 8-inch, and 12-inch, with 12-inch wafers being the most prevalent due to cost advantages [26][28] - The demand for 12-inch wafers has increased significantly, with their market share rising from 1.69% in 2000 to 76.39% in 2024 [51] Market Dynamics - The global silicon wafer market is expected to experience a downturn in 2024, with a projected decline of 7.50% to $11.5 billion, but is anticipated to recover in 2025 due to demand from sectors like AI and electric vehicles [55][57] - The market for silicon epitaxial wafers is also growing, driven by applications in high-performance devices, with the market size increasing from $3.68 billion in 2015 to $6.06 billion in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 7.39% [59] Challenges and Barriers - The semiconductor silicon wafer industry faces significant barriers, including customer onboarding challenges, technological complexities, talent shortages, and high capital investment requirements [41][45][46] - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of market share among a few key players, particularly in advanced wafer sizes [63] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to enter a golden period of growth in the next decade, driven by advancements in 5G, AI, and other emerging technologies [12][67] - China's semiconductor industry is poised for rapid growth, with a projected market size increase from $0.5 billion in 2016 to $1.7 billion in 2023, indicating a robust development trajectory [62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the A-shares and H-shares of the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of $2.382 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8%, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The demand driven by domestic substitution and AI continues to be robust, with the company benefiting from increased market share in various sectors [2]. - The company is expected to accelerate capacity expansion in 2026 due to high utilization rates and ongoing demand [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised, with projected net profits of $735 million, $1.101 billion, and $1.321 billion respectively, reflecting significant growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was $2.382 billion, with a gross margin of 22%, and net profit of $315 million, exceeding market expectations [1]. - The company expects Q4 2025 revenue to be between $2.38 billion and $2.43 billion, indicating a cautious outlook due to seasonal factors [1]. Demand and Market Trends - The overall demand remains strong, with a supply-demand imbalance leading to increased orders [2]. - The trend of domestic substitution is enhancing the company's order volume and market share, particularly in sectors like analog chips and memory [2]. Capacity and Utilization - The utilization rate in Q3 2025 was 95.8%, with wafer shipments reaching 2.4995 million pieces [3]. - Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $2.39 billion, with expectations for continued investment to support capacity expansion [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upwards for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 3.5x for H-shares and 6.2x for A-shares [4][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 15.7%, 24.8%, and 22.0% respectively [5].