目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 | ， | 上周工业硅供应量为7 1万吨 . ， | | 环比有所增加5 97% . | 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 | ， | 上周工业硅需求为5 4万吨 . ， | 环比减少29 | 87% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶硅库 . | | | | | | | 存为27万吨 | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 电池片亏损 ， ， | ， | 组件盈利 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Sugar: Weak and volatile [1] - Red Dates: Weak and volatile [2] - Rubber: Volatile [3] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The external market of sugar is weak due to improved supply prospects, and the domestic market is dragged down by the external market. Although there is no obvious positive driver, it is not recommended to chase short after the price drops to a low level [1]. - Red Dates: The spot price of red dates is weak and stable. The upstream growth is good, but the downstream demand is weak. The inventory pressure is strong, and the futures price may run at a low level [2]. - Rubber: The natural rubber supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The synthetic rubber supply may decrease, but the downstream sales are slow. Both have limited upward space [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Conditions**: SR509 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.31%, and the night - session closed at 5721 yuan. SR601 contract closed at 5599 yuan/ton, down 0.44%, and the night - session closed at 5584 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar 7 - month contract closed at 16.62 cents/pound, down 0.78%. The main contract of London white sugar closed at 464.4 dollars/ton, down 0.79%. In 2024/25 season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production increased while the amount of crushed sugarcane decreased. The Indian Sugar Mills Association expects India's sugar production to reach 35 million tons in the 2025/26 season [1]. - **Market Logic**: The external market is weak due to improved supply prospects. The domestic market is dragged down by the external market, and the trading atmosphere is conservative [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support around 5700 yuan/ton for SR509 contract, and consider light - position long for non - participants. High - throw and low - suck for the 9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Red Dates - **Market Conditions**: CJ509 contract closed at 8795 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.17%. CJ601 contract closed at 9585 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [2]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses last week was 10,753 tons, up 0.80% month - on - month and 74% year - on - year. The number of red date trucks arriving at Guangdong Ruyifang market yesterday increased by 1. The prices of red dates in Hebei remained stable [2]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was weak and stable. The upstream growth was good, but the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory pressure was strong [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Partially stop profit for previous short positions. Pay attention to the support around 8600 yuan/ton. Continuously pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of the 9 - 1 spread [2]. Rubber - **Market Conditions**: RU2509 contract closed at 13,545 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, and the night - session closed at 13,760 yuan/ton. NR2507 contract closed at 11,965 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, and the night - session closed at 12,145 yuan/ton. BR2507 contract closed at 10,960 yuan/ton, down 1.22%, and the night - session closed at 11,305 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 5.15%. The weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in Qingdao decreased by 5.19%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.80% [3]. - **Market Logic**: The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The supply of synthetic rubber may decrease, but the downstream sales are slow [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of RU at 13,300 yuan/ton in the short - term and 13,000 yuan/ton in the medium - term, NR at 11,500 yuan/ton, and BR at 10,500 - 10,700 yuan/ton. Consider short - term long positions [3].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 6 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货6月5日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and the market situation is evolving) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (White star, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed trend, with some products expected to be weak, some in a balanced state, and some showing potential investment opportunities. Each product's performance is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] Summary by Product Categories Methanol - Intraday price oscillated with reduced positions. Coastal olefins increased load, raising methanol external procurement demand. Ports gradually accumulated inventory, and the basis remained strong. Inland device maintenance restarts increased, leading to higher load and weaker prices. Coal prices stopped falling, alleviating cost pressure. With the expectation of increased supply, the methanol market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of Jiangsu Maritime's ship - age restrictions [2] Urea - Futures prices dropped sharply with increased positions, breaking through the low in late April. Agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest gap. With the end of summer high - nitrogen fertilizer production and clear export policies, market trading sentiment weakened, and producers' inventories continued to accumulate. Although exports are gradually liberalized, legal inspections are still restricted, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. A new Indian tender has little impact on the market. Device maintenance increased slightly, and the load decreased slightly but remained high. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the integer level [3] Polyolefins - Futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there are still many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it is the off - season for demand, and end - users mainly replenish inventory at low prices, providing limited support for spot prices. For polypropylene, downstream demand is in the off - season, and the willingness of downstream buyers to take delivery is average. The market lacks clear signals, and market sentiment is cautious. The restart of previously maintained upstream devices and inventory accumulation during holidays have increased supply pressure, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify with the upcoming launch of new devices [4] Styrene - The main futures contract fluctuated narrowly, and the overall center of gravity moved down along the 5 - day moving average. There is an expectation of increased supply, and producers' intention to sell is strong, suppressing downstream replenishment transactions. Producers are gradually reducing prices, and downstream users are using existing raw materials and purchasing on an as - needed basis, with weak market sentiment [6] Polyester - PX and PTA futures prices declined first and then oscillated back, remaining weak overall. PX and PTA operating rates continued to increase, while polyester capacity utilization decreased slightly, and terminal weaving load decreased. The industry chain shows a situation of increased upstream production and decreased downstream load, and PX and PTA are expected to be under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and potential production cuts. Ethylene glycol prices rose rapidly due to the suspension of ethane shipments from the US but then oscillated back, and the monthly spread remained weak. With the commissioning of new plants and the restart of coal - chemical plants, port arrivals increased from a low level, and ports accumulated inventory. Coupled with possible weakening demand, market sentiment turned weak. Short - fiber prices were weakly volatile, with low processing margins. Terminal orders weakened, and supply - demand drivers were downward, mainly following raw material price fluctuations. Bottle - chip production is mainly for peak - season orders, and inventory is stable. As raw material prices weakened, the processing margin on the futures market rebounded from a low level, while the spot processing margin continued to weaken [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC continued its weak pattern. With less maintenance in June and the expected commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new plant, supply pressure increased. With the arrival of the Indian rainy season, exports are expected to weaken, and domestic demand is weak, so the PVC industry faces inventory accumulation pressure. The decline in calcium carbide prices has undermined cost support. In a weak supply - demand situation, futures prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda is operating weakly. The increase in liquid chlorine prices has improved the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.5%. Liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased but still faces pressure. The enthusiasm of non - aluminum downstream users and traders to take delivery is average. Downstream rigid demand has not improved significantly. With high - profit margins, supply is operating at a high level, and futures prices are under pressure at high levels [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass continued the pattern of inventory accumulation and price reduction, and futures prices were weak. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased, and the industry continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, inventory is concentrated in upstream and mid - stream, with high pressure. With the upcoming rainy season, the industry faces shipment pressure. Coal production lines still have profits, with two new production lines and three ignition lines recently, slightly increasing capacity. Processing orders have not improved significantly month - on - month and are still weak year - on - year, and downstream payment collection is poor. With high inventory pressure, the driving force is still weak. At a low valuation, attention should be paid to cost - side changes, and operations should be cautious. Soda ash supply has rebounded to 700,000 tons, with high inventory pressure, and futures prices continued the weak pattern. There are few maintenance plans in June. After upstream price concessions, the industry still has profits, and supply will remain at a high level. Downstream users mainly make rigid purchases and have a weak willingness to replenish inventory. There is a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry, and the subsequent ignition speed will slow down or even cold - repair may occur. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations, and in the long term, supply pressure remains, so a high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market showed a trend of first falling and then stabilizing. Inland methanol prices stopped falling and stabilized in the second half - week due to factors such as increased willingness of traders to hold goods and short - covering demand after prices hit a one - year low. Port prices also showed a similar trend, with the futures market supported by the news of the suspension of the US tariff policy [5]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2250 - 2320 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For the methanol 2509 contract, the fundamental situation is neutral; the basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory situation is bullish; the disk situation is neutral; the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down; the methanol production start - up rate in Iran has decreased; the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season; the MTBE start - up rate has dropped significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim and Jiangsu has decreased, while the price of methanol in some regions such as Hebei, Fujian, and Inner Mongolia has increased. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has increased, and the number of registered warrants and effective forecasts has also changed. The basis, import spread, and other spreads have also shown corresponding changes [8]. - **Start - up rate data**: The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have decreased, while the start - up rate in the East China region remains unchanged. The national weighted average start - up rate has decreased [8]. - **Inventory data**: The total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports has increased slightly, while the overall available circulating supply in coastal areas has decreased [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in different regions such as Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and maintenance due to device failures [56]. - **Foreign device operation**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of resuming operation, while devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, with some devices having just completed maintenance or having low start - up rates [57]. - **Olefin device operation**: Some domestic olefin devices using methanol as raw material are operating stably, while some are in a state of shutdown or have low loads, and some new projects are planned to be put into production [58].

2025.06.03-06.06 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 工业硅期货价格维持偏弱走势。 中线趋势判断 1 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 2 截至5月29日新疆地区421#价格8900元/吨，云南地区421#价格10100元/吨， 四川地区421#价格10250元/吨。期货盘5月30日工业硅2507收盘价7160元， 现货市场价格也无止跌意向，临近丰水期，部分有小水电的厂家计划进入 复产阶段，大厂复产已落实，预计6月供应会超预期。长城期货AI智能投 询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处于下行通道中。 工业硅市场供需矛盾依然存在，库存压力大，产量预期增多，建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 n 本周策略建议 维持偏弱走势，建议观望。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-05-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4758 | -35 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 718586 | -121284 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1043359 | 24833 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 800736 | 31006 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 869885 | 42575 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -69149 | -11569 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5010 | -15 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4714.62 | -51.92 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4975 | -25 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4755 | -61.25 | | | PVC: ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.05.23 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货下跌2.79%，玻璃期货下跌0.5%，本周纯碱期货一路弱势下行，光伏玻璃行业 此前对纯碱需求增长贡献较大，光伏玻璃增速放缓，减少了对纯碱的需求 ,同时市场库存较高，也对纯 碱价格形成了压制，本周玻璃期货价格延续了近期的弱势格局，整体处于下行延续了近期的弱势格局， 同时房地产销售数据表现较弱，根据最新披露的固定资产投资，开始出现了减弱，90天关税暂缓政策， 减弱了国内政策出台对冲的可能性，因此玻璃目前整体情绪悲观，多头短期难有反弹迹象，底部成本支 撑依旧成为主要位置。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端纯碱行业开工率出现下滑，部分企业检修计划的推进使得产量有所减少。 不过，整体供应压力依旧不小。即便当下部分企业检修让供应有阶段性收紧，但像远兴能源这类企业满 产运行，新产能也可能随时释放，供应收缩 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber in the market dropped from a high level. Due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and unexpected shutdown of some plants, the production cost of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. Although most private butadiene rubber plants in North China have reduced their production to varying degrees, the weak downstream demand has led to increased inventory in production enterprises and sample trading enterprises. It is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decline in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has continued to increase this week, but the production schedule of some enterprises has been slightly adjusted, and a few enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of the month, which may affect the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The spot price of domestic butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week. As of May 21, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 12,200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of raw material butadiene has continued to rise, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The inventory of production enterprises and sample trading enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the inventory of trading enterprises will decline in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has continued to increase, but the production schedule adjustment of some enterprises and maintenance plans of a few enterprises may affect the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,500 - 12,000 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 3.96% [11]. - As of May 23, the 6 - 7 spread of butadiene rubber was - 85 [18]. - As of May 23, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,790 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from last week [21]. - **Spot Market** - As of May 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of May 22, the basis of butadiene rubber was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - **Upstream** - As of May 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 563.38 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - As of May 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.73%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons from last week [31]. - **Industry** - In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 75.57%, a decrease of 3.63% from last week [34]. - As of May 22, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 615 yuan/ton, an increase of 618 yuan/ton from last week [37]. - As of May 21, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,800 tons, an increase of 600 tons from last week. As of May 23, the domestic butadiene rubber manufacturer inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 350 tons from last week; the trading enterprise inventory was 5,800 tons, an increase of 330 tons from last week [42]. - **Downstream** - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [45]. - In April 2025, China's tire export volume was 696,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.14% and a year - on - year increase of 6.11%. From January to April, China's cumulative tire export volume was 2,645,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.01% [49].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: May 19 - 23, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures price is expected to continue its weak oscillatory consolidation in the medium - term, and short - term M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 2850 - 3000 [6][10] 1.3 Section Summaries 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Medium - term trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a stage of weak oscillatory consolidation [6] - Trend logic: In the 19th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.846 million tons, with an operating rate of 51.89%. Soybean inventory was 5.3491 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6027 million tons (12.70%); soybean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,100 tons (23.26%). The concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have led to a more abundant global soybean supply. The increase in domestic imports and the recovery of the oil mill operating rate have strengthened the loose pattern of soybean meal. However, the current terminal breeding feed demand is fair, and the historically low soybean meal inventory restricts the phased release of supply, providing some support for prices [6] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6] 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price was in a downward channel, with slightly more funds on the long side. M2509 was expected to continue its weak oscillation in the short term, with an operating range of 2850 - 3000, and interval operations could be considered [9] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean meal futures price is in a downward channel, with slightly more funds on the short side. Under the loose supply pattern, M2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with an operating range of 2850 - 3000, and interval operations can be considered [10] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow is - 48.5, indicating that the main force is slightly bearish; the capital energy is 12.7, and the funds are basically stable; the long - short divergence is 96.1, indicating a high risk of market reversal [13] 1.3.3 Relevant Data - Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [17][20][22] - Relevant data include weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [17][19][22] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue its range - bound oscillation in the medium - term, and short - term Y2509 is expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation pattern in the range of 7650 - 8000 [27][31] 2.3 Section Summaries 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Medium - term trend: The overall trend of the main soybean oil contract continues the range - bound oscillation [27] - Trend logic: According to Mysteel data, in the 19th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 350,700 tons, an increase of 61,400 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 654,400 tons, an increase of 27,600 tons from the previous week. With the increase in soybean supply to oil mills and the recovery of the operating rate, the increase in crushing volume has led to a more abundant soybean oil supply, but weak terminal consumption has kept market transactions sluggish. The current soybean oil inventory is still at a historical low, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations has improved the macro sentiment, providing support. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the fluctuations in crude oil prices have added to market disturbances [27] - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [27] 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation stage, with more funds on the long side. It was expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation in the short term. The operating range of Y2509 was 7650 - 8000, and interval operations could be considered [30] - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of the soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation stage, with more funds on the short side. Due to the loose supply - demand situation of soybean oil futures, combined with crude oil fluctuations and policy disturbances, it is expected to maintain the range - bound oscillation pattern in the short term. The operating range of Y2509 is 7650 - 8000, and interval operations can be considered [31] - Variety diagnosis: The long - short flow is - 56.5, indicating that the main force is relatively bearish; the capital energy is - 2.2, and the funds are basically stable; the long - short divergence is 63.0, indicating a low risk of market reversal [34] 2.3.3 Relevant Data - Data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Trading Consultation Department of Great Wall Futures [40][44][49] - Relevant data include weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume of soybean oil, as well as weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate of soybeans, and weekly port inventory [38][41][45]