微观流动性监测，银行大规模定增 20250701 摘要 偏股型公募基金新发表现良好，但近期发行规模仍处低位，6 月预计延 续震荡，受地缘政治风险影响，市场避险情绪上升。 截至 6 月 22 日，北向资金成交额占比小幅回落，活跃度下降，受美股 反弹和新兴外资谨慎态度影响，北上资金成交活跃度仍处阶段性低位。 截至 6 月 22 日，两融余额占比小幅下降，两融净流入较前期减少 30%，市场投资情绪不高，两融交易额占比处于阶段性低位，但仍有修 复空间。 两融资金净流入集中于下游消费和上游原料支持服务板块，医药生物、 食品饮料、石油石化行业净流入居前，非银金融、机械设备、电子行业 净流出居前。 存量股票型 ETF 本期净申购额收窄，科创板 50ETF、白酒 ETF、中证 500ETF 及国联半导体 ETF 净申购领先，消费类、创业板及信息技术创 业板 ETF 净赎回领先。 未来两周 IPO 规模预计 26.5 亿元，本期股权融资规模大幅上升至 4,300 亿元，主要受益于中国银行、交通银行及邮储银行的大规模增发。 本期产业资本净减持 85.75 亿元，集中在中邮制造和支持服务板块，机 械设备、电子及基础化工行业净减持领 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Global Talent Summit was held in Beijing, focusing on global talent mobility and governance [1][2] - Representatives from various sectors, including international organizations, universities, and multinational companies, participated in discussions on improving global talent flow [1][2] - The summit emphasized the need for countries to adopt flexible policies to attract and retain high-skilled talent, highlighting the role of tourism recovery in enhancing national competitiveness [1][2] Group 2 - The "Global Talent Mobility Trends Report 2025" was released, indicating that global talent mobility remains strong despite complex international conditions [2] - The report highlights China's significant advantages in talent scale and environment, along with its potential for further development in other areas [2] - The report calls for countries to deepen their understanding of talent mobility and to promote high-level openness and talent exchange [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company intends to use part of the temporarily idle raised funds to supplement its working capital, which is deemed necessary for improving fund utilization efficiency and reducing financial costs [2][6][9]. Group 1: Fundraising Overview - The company issued 13,794,971 convertible bonds at a face value of 100 RMB each, raising a total of 1,379,497,100 RMB, with a net amount of 1,357,031,302.96 RMB after deducting underwriting fees [2][3]. - The funds are stored in a dedicated account as per the regulatory requirements, and a tripartite supervision agreement has been signed [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Utilization Plan - Originally, the raised funds were planned for specific projects, including the development of natural gas resources in the Shilou West Block, with a total investment of 137,949.71 million RMB [3][4]. - The company has proposed to use up to 40,000 million RMB of temporarily idle funds to supplement working capital, with a usage period not exceeding 12 months [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Efficiency - The company operates in a capital-intensive industry, necessitating the use of various financing sources, including loans, to support its operations [6][7]. - By utilizing idle funds for working capital, the company expects to save approximately 3.00% in financial costs based on current loan market rates [6][7]. Group 4: Internal Decision-Making Process - The board of directors and the supervisory board have approved the use of idle funds, confirming that the necessary internal procedures were followed [7][9]. - The funds can be used in a rolling manner within the approved limits and timeframe, ensuring that they will be returned to the dedicated account as needed [7][9].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - From June 23 to June 30, the PBOC conducted a total of 2,027.5 billion yuan in reverse repos, achieving a net injection of 1,067.2 billion yuan after offsetting 960.3 billion yuan of maturing repos [1] - In July, the overall net financing of government bonds is expected to be around 1,200 billion yuan, with a liquidity gap of approximately 1,000 billion yuan after excluding MLF and reverse repo maturities [1] Group 2 - Fiscal factors are anticipated to have an increasing impact on liquidity in July, with the possibility of the PBOC restarting government bond purchases to inject liquidity [2] - The PBOC's willingness to maintain liquidity support is expected to continue beyond the quarter-end, even if it does not restart government bond purchases or utilize total tools [2]

韩国央行行长李昌镛：在金融危机中，美元流动性的支持是恢复稳定的关键。 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank adjusted its open market operations on July 1, conducting a 131 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the interest rate at 1.40%, and achieving a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][2] - In the first week of July, the open market faced significant withdrawal pressure, with reverse repos maturing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, including a high of 525.9 billion yuan on July 4 [1][3] - The central bank is expected to flexibly adjust operations based on changes in the funding environment, potentially increasing liquidity or utilizing other monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable liquidity levels [1][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Reactions - Market expectations suggest that liquidity will remain ample in July, with analysts predicting a minimal liquidity gap post-quarter-end [4][9] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a significant rise on June 30, with the overnight Shibor increasing by 5.10 basis points to 1.4220%, but subsequently dropped after the quarter-end [3][9] - The central bank's decision not to announce the bond trading operations on June 30 has led to speculation that the rules for announcing such operations may have changed to "as needed" rather than at the end of the month [5][6] Group 3: Government Bond Trading Operations - The discussion around the resumption of government bond trading operations has intensified, especially given the seasonal tightening of funds at the end of the quarter [6][8] - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading is inevitable, but the timing will be carefully managed to minimize downward pressure on market yields [7][10] - The central bank's previous suspension of bond buying was attributed to factors such as limited government bond supply and the need to maintain yields at acceptable levels [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring capital flows and euro-denominated assets [1] Group 1 - The ECB's focus on capital flows indicates a proactive approach to managing economic stability within the Eurozone [1] - Monitoring euro assets suggests an interest in maintaining the attractiveness and competitiveness of the euro in global markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar due to uncertainty surrounding US policies, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in over a decade [1] - Analysts indicate that both the Swiss franc and the euro are primary beneficiaries as investors look for alternatives to the US dollar [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Chris Turner, an analyst at ING, noted that the rise of the Swiss franc occurred despite low yields on Swiss government bonds, suggesting a shift in liquidity preferences among investors [1] - There is an increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates sooner than previously anticipated, which is putting additional pressure on the US dollar [1]

撰写品种:国债期货 成文日期: 20250701 报告周期:月度 研究分析师：武吟秋 咨询证号 (Z0018989) 咨询电话 (028-61303163) 国债期货月报:市场情绪偏强 目录栏 核心观点 一、期货市场分析 二、现货市场分析 三、期现结合分析 四、后市展望 核心观点 本月（20250601-0630）月初恰逢端午小长假,6 月 3 日开市交易,二年期国债主 力合约，五年国债主力合约，十年国债主力合约，三十年国债主力合约本月整体出现资 金流入的态势,月 K 线收阳,6 月 13 日以伊发生冲突,6 月 24 日宣布停火,6 月 16 日央行发布将开展 4000 亿元 6 个月买断式逆回购。央行在 6 月 24 日, 6 月 25 日, 6 月 26 日分别发布 7 天逆回购信息,整体释放资金流动性投放的信号,为债市提供了流 动性支撑，显示市场情绪偏强。 国债期货表格： | | 指标 | | 上月 | 本月 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | | 二年国债主力 | 102.396 | 102.498 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has initiated a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, indicating a seasonal liquidity easing in July, with expectations for a slight decline in funding rates [1][4][5]. Monetary Policy Actions - On July 1, the PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 1310 billion yuan, with both bidding and winning amounts matching this figure, and the operation rate set at 1.40% [1][4]. - A total of 4065 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature, leading to a net withdrawal of 2755 billion yuan from the open market [1]. Market Conditions - The market is expected to experience seasonal easing in July, with funding rates likely to stabilize and slightly decline [5][6]. - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed mixed movements, with overnight Shibor rising by 5.1 basis points to 1.422% and 7-day Shibor increasing by 9.5 basis points to 1.763% prior to July 1 [4]. Economic Outlook - The first half of the year showed strong economic performance, reducing the likelihood of significant interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term [7][8]. - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth targets [5][9]. Future Expectations - The liquidity easing trend is expected to continue, with the PBOC likely to implement measures to ensure market liquidity remains abundant [6][9]. - The central bank may utilize various tools, including Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repos, to manage liquidity effectively throughout the second half of the year [8][9].