关税大限将至，特朗普重大转变。 美东时间7月31日，特朗普宣布，美国与墨西哥的关税协议将延长90天，即墨西哥将继续支付25%的芬 太尼关税、25%的汽车关税以及50%的钢铁、铝和铜关税。而在此之前，特朗普一直强调和多国的"对 等关税"定于8月1日生效。 此外，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，将对加拿大的关税从25%提高至35%，更高的关税将于2025年8月1 日生效。美国白宫还表示，为逃避加拿大35%的关税而转运的货物将被征收40%的转运关税。美元兑加 元短线走高。美国股指期货保持下跌。 在关税大限前夕，全球贸易谈判进入白热化阶段。美国白宫表示，特朗普将于周四(美东时间7月31日) 签署一项行政命令，对贸易伙伴实施新的关税税率，措施周五(美东时间8月1日)生效。白宫新闻秘书卡 罗琳·莱维特称，签署会在"今天下午某个时间或今晚晚些时候"。 市场层面，美股三大指数午盘后全线跳水，最终集体收跌，道指跌超330点，跌幅达0.74%。有分析指 出，在美联储议息会议后，投资者重新评估货币政策路径，加剧了市场不安，市场开始怀疑9月是否还 会降息。此外，白宫定于周五对包括印度和巴西在内的主要贸易伙伴加征更高关税，也打压了市场情 绪 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. and Mexico have agreed to extend the current tariff agreement for an additional 90 days, maintaining a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico unless they qualify under the USMCA [1][3][4] - The U.S. will increase tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, 2025, with a 40% tariff on goods rerouted to avoid these tariffs [1][3] - The U.S. is set to implement new tariffs on major trading partners, including India and Brazil, which has negatively impacted market sentiment [1][10] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping over 330 points, or 0.74%, amid concerns over monetary policy and upcoming tariff implementations [1][14][16] - Major U.S. indices initially opened high but closed lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experiencing declines [14][16] - Specific stocks showed varied performance, with Meta rising 11.25% and Amazon facing a post-earnings drop due to disappointing guidance [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extension of the tariff agreement between the United States and Mexico, highlighting the implications for trade and the ongoing negotiations between the two countries [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Agreement Details - On July 31, President Trump announced a 90-day extension of the existing tariff agreement with Mexico, maintaining a 25% tariff on Mexican goods unless they comply with the USMCA [1][2]. - In addition to the 25% overall tariff, Mexican goods face a 25% tariff on automotive imports and a 50% tariff on metal products such as steel, aluminum, and copper [3]. - Trump had previously threatened to increase the unified tariff rate on Mexican imports from 25% to 30%, but decided to postpone any new tariff measures following a successful phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Dependencies - The U.S. has increasingly relied on Mexico for various goods, including automobiles, electronics, footwear, and apparel, with Mexico becoming the largest source of imports for the U.S. in 2023 [4]. - Mexico is also a significant export market for U.S. goods, second only to Canada, and has not retaliated against the tariffs imposed by Trump so far [5]. - However, President Sheinbaum has indicated that Mexico would respond with higher tariffs on U.S. goods if Trump increases tariffs on Mexican products [5].

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗 ：正在推进与印度、加拿大的贸易谈判取得的进展。 ...

新华财经纽约7月31日电（记者刘亚南）美国和墨西哥两国领导人在当地时间31日进行了电话会谈，双 方同意在未来90天维持现有关税税率不变并就新的贸易协议进行谈判。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普当日通过社交媒体表示，他刚刚与墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆进行了"非常成 功"的电话会谈，并同意在未来90天延长近一段时间实施的协议，美国会继续对来自墨西哥的钢、铝、 铜、汽车和其他产品征收从25%至50%不等的进口关税。 特朗普表示，会谈让两人更加理解彼此。由于两国边境的问题，美墨间协议的复杂性与美国和其他国家 间有所不同。 特朗普还称，墨西哥已经同意立即终止其非关税贸易壁垒。美墨将继续在边境就毒品和非法移民等所有 涉及安全的方面进行合作。 （文章来源：新华财经） 辛鲍姆同时在社交媒体平台上说："我们刚刚与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普进行了非常好的电话会谈。我们 避免了从明天开始上调关税并达成一致，在90天时间内创建一个基于对话的长期协议。" 特朗普说："我们将在未来90天与墨西哥会谈，以在这90天内或更长时间签署一项贸易协议。" ...

Group 1 - The core outcome of the recent US-China-Sweden trade talks is the agreement to extend the suspension of tariffs, while other significant issues remain unresolved due to clear divergences [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that the decision to extend the tariff suspension lies with President Trump, and further discussions on China's rare earth resource circulation may occur within the next 90 days [1][3] - Trump's response to the talks suggests an openness to extending the agreement, reflecting a desire to avoid escalating the trade war in the short term [3] Group 2 - China's firm stance during the negotiations has led to a relatively mild response from the US, indicating China's unique leverage in this geopolitical game compared to the EU and Japan [4] - The EU officials were surprised by China's uncompromising position, which countered their expectations of potential concessions, highlighting China's strong resistance to US manufacturing revival efforts [6] - The US manufacturing sector is facing significant challenges due to China's dominance in rare earth materials, with no viable alternatives available to mitigate this pressure [6]

美国将在8月1日恢复征收所谓"对等关税"，当前特朗普政府仍在与多个经济体进行最后时刻的谈判。 据央视新闻，当地时间7月30日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与韩国达成"全面完整"的贸易协议。美国 将对韩国征收15%的关税。韩国将对美全面开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车和农产品在内的美国产品。 目前，美国仅与英国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、欧盟和韩国等经济体达成初步协议。 最初宣布暂停时，特朗普政府曾设定了"90天内达成90份协议"的目标，但这一预期未能实现。目前，美 国仅与英国、越南、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、日本、欧盟和韩国等经济体达成初步协议，且多数协议的细 节仍待敲定。 具体来说，5月，英国成为首个与美国达成贸易协议的国家。该协议设定了10%的基础关税，并针对汽 车、航空航天等关键行业制定了配额与豁免机制，但钢铝关税削减等核心问题至今仍未明确。7月2日， 美越协议宣布将越南输美商品的关税从46%降至20%，同时越南承诺"完全开放市场"，但具体条款仍未披 露。随后，美国与印度尼西亚于7月15日达成协议，将印尼关税从32%下调至19%，作为交换，印尼同意 取消99%以上美国商品的关税壁垒。7月22日，美菲协议将菲律 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the precious metals market in August 2025, analyzing the market from aspects of market review, macro - factors, fundamental factors, and provides future outlook and strategy recommendations. It points out that precious metal prices are in high - level oscillations due to the encounter of weak expectations and strong reality [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, but no specific review and outlook content is provided [12][13] 3.2 Macro - factors - **Trade Negotiations**: In July 2025, there were a series of trade negotiation events. Trump announced multiple tariff policies, including plans to impose tariffs on various countries and products such as imports of copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. There were also trade agreements reached between the US and countries like Indonesia, Japan, and the EU. China and the US will continue to promote the extension of relevant tariffs and maintain communication on economic and trade issues [19] - **Market Sentiment and Risk Preference**: Market panic has fallen to a low level, and the three major US stock indexes have rebounded, indicating a continuous recovery of market risk preference [20] - **Employment and Unemployment**: The number of new non - farm jobs in the US and the unemployment rate are presented. The unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased [26] - **Inflation**: The US CPI has shown a mild rebound, and small categories of goods and services are the main drivers of inflation [32] - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of different interest rate ranges in each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026, reflecting market expectations for interest rate changes [31] 3.3 Fundamental Factors - **Gold Supply and Demand**: From 2014 - 2025 (forecast), gold supply mainly comes from gold mine production and recycling. Total supply is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. Demand includes gold jewelry manufacturing, consumption, technology, investment, etc. Investment demand is expected to increase by 21.2% in 2025. The overall supply - demand balance shows a certain change trend, and the LBMA gold price has also fluctuated [39] - **Silver - related Data**: Data on China's silver production, exports, inventories (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE), and silver - related consumption in the photovoltaic industry (world and China's photovoltaic installation and production forecasts, silver paste consumption in TOPCon batteries, and silver powder production) are presented [46][50][59] - **Investment and Position Data**: Data on gold and silver ETFs and CFTC positions are provided, reflecting market investment trends [48][64] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content on future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text

Core Viewpoint - South Korea is currently engaged in separate discussions with the United States regarding foreign exchange issues, indicating a focused approach to currency matters outside of broader trade negotiations [1] Group 1 - The South Korean Ministry of Finance is actively involved in discussions with the U.S. on foreign exchange topics [1] - There has been no direct discussion of exchange rates during the ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. [1]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 策略参考 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：本周中美代表团第三次谈判的核心决定，就是将世界两大经济体之间的关税休战期延长三个月， 关税保持不变。美豆出口需求难有改善，美豆期价继续震荡运行。在中美谈判结果不及预期的背景下，国 内油厂远期买船心态仍将保持谨慎，大量的买船缺口难以快速填补，继续支撑豆类期价内强外弱。短期豆 粕期价或维持震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内 ...