2月2日，国内贵金属期货价格普跌。文华财经数据显示，截至9:04，沪银期货主力合约跌停，沪金期货 主力合约跌超10%，铂期货主力合约跌停，钯期货主力合约跌超15%。 东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，近期，贵金属市场利空因素随后开始发酵。美联储1 月利率会议如期按兵不动，会议声明指出就业市场逐渐企稳，但通胀仍面临上行风险，这使得市场对美 联储短期降息的预期下降。美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也未释放更多鸽派信号，本次会议整体偏空。此 外，美国财政部部长表示，将持续奉行强势美元政策，否认干预日元汇率，美元指数因此止跌回升。值 得一提的是，特朗普提名凯文・沃什为下一任美联储主席，引发市场情绪逆转。相较于其他候选人，沃 什的立场更为鹰派，尽管其满足特朗普的降息诉求，但对量化宽松持强烈反对态度。这意味着后续降息 与缩表的政策预期，标志着流动性全面释放的时期即将结束，美债收益率曲线将进一步陡峭化，金融市 场波动也将随之增加。 展望后市，徐颖表示，中长期来看，黄金价格的上涨逻辑并未发生逆转。近期对白银的炒作明显降温， 特朗普提名沃什为美联储主席等事件，成为行情逆转的导火索。短期地缘政治风险可能降温，美联储大 规模"放水 ...

Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman has led to significant volatility in the U.S. financial markets, with major stock indices declining and gold and silver experiencing their largest single-day drops since 1980, at 11% and 31% respectively [2] - Investors have mixed expectations regarding Warsh's policy stance, with some viewing his previous experience at the Federal Reserve as a sign of a potential inclination towards tightening monetary policy, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure precious metal prices [2][3] - Warsh's shift in policy stance has increased uncertainty on Wall Street, as he has previously been labeled as an inflation "hawk" but has recently aligned with President Trump's cost-cutting policies, raising concerns about his ability to navigate complex economic conditions [3] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is a central topic of discussion regarding Warsh's nomination, with concerns about government interference in central bank decisions being amplified by his alignment with Trump [3] - The Senate has expressed concerns about Warsh's nomination, with Senator Elizabeth Warren emphasizing the need for the Federal Reserve Chairman to maintain independence from political pressures [4] - Even if confirmed, Warsh faces challenges in implementing his proposed reforms, as translating his ideas into actionable policies will require approval from the Federal Reserve Board, the President, and Congress, complicating the process [4]

我们认为短期黄金或存在反弹窗口。首先，当前贵金属隐含波动率已升至极端水平，参考2020年3月末 黄金大幅回撤后波动率冲高回落的历史经验，短期降波修复行情值得期待。其次，市场对"降息+缩 表"的定价可能过于抢跑。周五黄金回调的直接催化是沃什获提名，市场预期其将推行"降息+缩表"的保 守主义货币政策从而推动美元走强，但本轮回调更多反映的是前期涨幅过大导致多头结构脆弱、对利空 催化敏感度较高，而非基本面的根本性转向——美债市场对该消息反应平淡、基本平收即为佐证。 海外方面，下一任美联储主席人选确定，美国政府再度面临停摆风险，对市场造成较大扰动。 特朗普新任命沃什为美联储主席，沃什此前公开发言偏鹰引发市场担忧，但考虑到美国经济现状，偏鹰 做法或难以落地。根据长江证券，沃什"降息+缩表、缩职能"的政策组合，核心目的在于重塑美联储公 信力。但当下环境下，短期内顺利实施的可能性并不高，原因在于："中期选举压力下，特朗普有迫切 压降中长端利率的要求"和"缩表推升期限溢价带动长端利率上行"之间存在冲突。 此外，受美政府停摆风险影响，上周海外权益市场剧烈波动。美国参议院通过了为联邦政府大部分部门 提供资金的1.2万亿美元支出法案 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in the metals sector due to intensified capital competition, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [2][5]. - The report suggests that the precious metals sector is poised for recovery, driven by central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [4][24]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to see price increases due to stable supply-demand dynamics and significant infrastructure investments [4][48]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.29 percentage points [5][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 22.59%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 20.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 0.32% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.79% week-on-week [16]. - Precious metals saw significant price changes, with gold prices down by 1.52% and silver prices down by 17.44% [16]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories in domestic markets decreased by 0.7 million tons, while exchange inventories increased by 2.5 million tons [33]. - Aluminum social inventories totaled 102.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.05 million tons [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Precious Metals**: The report emphasizes the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [24]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper demand is expected to remain strong, supported by infrastructure investments and a stable supply chain [4][33]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [4].

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent economic indicators and policy decisions that may impact investment strategies, particularly in the context of industrial profits and monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 1: Important Events Review - On January 27, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year. In December, profits of these enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year [2]. - On January 28, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. The statement removed references to increasing employment risks, indicating improvements in economic conditions, particularly with signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, suggesting a more cautious approach from Fed decision-makers [2]. - On January 29, U.S. President Trump stated that he had engaged in discussions with Iran amid escalating tensions and planned to continue dialogue while threatening military action to urge Iran to accept the terms of an agreement [2]. - On January 30, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair, advocating for quicker interest rate cuts while also supporting a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, positioning him as relatively hawkish compared to other candidates [2]. Group 2: Market Overview - The bond market continued its recovery, while the equity market showed weak fluctuations. The sentiment in the bond market improved, with long-term bond yields declining again at the beginning of the week. Many local governments set GDP targets that were either in line with or slightly lower than the national growth rate of 5% from the previous year, indicating a shift away from aggressive growth targets [4].

摘要 来源：经济学家圈 凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh） "沃什时代"的美联储 申万宏源 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 北京时间1月30日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美 联储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。2025年8月-2026年1月 底，最可能的"影子主席"在五位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。2017年11月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至 10月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。1）11月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立性"的担忧 ...

据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月31日称，他预计自己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表示希 望沃什实施降息。 特朗普（左）和凯文·沃什。资料图 图自美媒 特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美 联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 《国会山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名，因为特朗普政府对美联储的刑事调查以及削弱其独立性的威胁已激怒民主党人。据 悉，一些国会参议员正试图让美联储免受政治压力的影响。共和党籍联邦参议员汤姆·蒂利斯1月30日说，尽管沃什是合格的人选，但由于司法部正对鲍威尔 进行刑事调查，"他会反对确认任何美联储相关提名，包括美联储主席职位"。 《国会山报》称，特朗普对此表示，他愿等到蒂利斯卸任后再确认相关提名，"我的意思是，他（蒂利斯）将因为某些原因离开参议院，因为他要求的事情 没实现，所以这就是其中的原因之一"。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但其美联储理 ...

（央视财经《第一时间》）当地时间1月30日，美国总统特朗普宣布，提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。 现年55岁的凯文·沃什，职业生涯横跨美国华尔街、白宫与学术界。他早年曾在投行摩根士丹利的并购部门任职，2002年至2006年担任白宫国家经 济委员会执行秘书。2006年，年仅35岁的沃什被时任总统小布什任命为美联储理事，成为史上最年轻的理事之一。2008年金融危机期间，他的投 行背景使其成为时任美联储主席伯南克与华尔街沟通的关键纽带。在美联储任职期间，沃什以鹰派立场著称，在美联储2010年推出第二轮量化宽 松时，他对这一激进的货币政策持怀疑态度，因此投下反对票，之后从美联储辞职。 近几个月来，沃什公开支持降低借贷成本，与特朗普的立场保持一致。路透社报道称，他主张缩减美联储庞大的资产负债表，使其能够通过降低 央行的政策利率，将金融市场的过剩流动性"重新配置"到实体经济中。有经济学家在分析中指出，沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈 现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 美国Annex财富管理公司首席经济学家 布莱恩·雅各布森：我们确实知道历史上他更为鹰派，意味着非常专注于控制通胀。然而总统特朗普一直在 寻 ...

转自：京报网_北京日报官方网站 #特朗普预计沃什轻松过关#【#特朗普希望沃什降息#】据美国《国会山报》报道，美国总统特朗普当地 时间1月31日称，他预计自己提名的下任美联储主席凯文·沃什将轻松通过国会参议院的确认程序，并表 示希望沃什实施降息。"他是一个非常'高质量'的人选。他应该毫无困难就能通过。"特朗普在总统专 机"空军一号"上对记者说，并暗示沃什可能获得一些民主党人支持。报道援引特朗普的话称，他希望沃 什实施降息，但尚未收到任何承诺。"我希望他（沃什）能降息。我是说，如果你在电视上看到他，你 知道，因为我会看（他的）采访和声明，我希望他能降息。但你知道，他最终得做他自己想做的 事。"特朗普说。在一名记者追问下，特朗普补充说，"不，没有（收到）承诺。我不想那样做。我想如 果我愿意的话，我也可以那样做，但我没有做"。特朗普1月30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美 联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美 联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立场。《国会 山报》提到，目前尚不清楚沃什能否获得足够支持以确认提名， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to market volatility and a rebound in the US dollar[1] - Warsh's focus is on supply-side reforms, influenced by Friedman’s monetary theories, aiming to reduce the Fed's market impact through balance sheet reduction[1] - Despite expectations for a strong dollar, Warsh is anticipated to respond to Trump's calls for interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption shows stability, with metro passenger volume increasing by 1.3% year-on-year, but flight numbers and box office revenues are down by 1.4% and 13.5% respectively compared to last year[2] - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded a decline to 51.3%, indicating a pulse-like recovery influenced by the late Spring Festival and commodity price fluctuations[3] - CPI shows a mixed trend with vegetable prices dropping by 0.6% while egg prices rose by 3.2%[4] Group 3: External Economic Factors - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,200.5, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year, indicating rising external demand[2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.5% while Brent crude rose by 1.8%, driven by geopolitical tensions[6] - The US economy is projected to grow at a rate of 2.1% in Q1, with durable goods orders rising by 0.5% month-on-month, surpassing expectations[9]