周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 非农不及预期，美元转向弱势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.22%。美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.36%，欧元跌 1.34%，英镑跌 1.2%，日元 涨 0.2%，瑞郎跌 1.08%，澳元、新西兰元、比索、兰特、泰铢 均跌超 1%，金价涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司，VIX 指数升至 20.38，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 2.9%至 71.4 美元/桶。 ★市场交易逻辑 外 汇 期 货 8 月 1 日对等关税落地前美国陆续与韩国等国家达成协议，中美 关税谈判意在延期 90 天。二季度美国 GDP 增速从-0.5%反弹至 3%，好于市场预期的 2.4%，个人消费支出增速反弹至 1.4%，净 进口从一季度对美国经济的拖累转为最大增速贡献来源，同时 企业开始消化此前囤积的库存，库存投资下降，美国大而美法 案通过后，政府发债增加，三季度融资计划超 1 万亿美元，四 季度亦有 5500 亿美元的净发行计划，下半年财政支出预计对经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

第三，昨晚特朗普还说了一句刷新市场认知的话：若鲍威尔不降息，美联储理事会应"接管控制权"。美 联储理事会有7名理事，鲍威尔是其中之一。目前理事会中已有2人公开支持降息，而昨晚一位理事（库 格勒）宣布辞职，其空缺将由特朗普提名，那么理事会中将至少有3人支持降息，形成"3 vs 3"的局面。 只要特朗普再争取过来一人，就可以在会议上主导政策走向。即使鲍威尔不愿降息，只要其他理事联 手，就能形成多数，强行推动降息。但这样的话，市场会担心"美联储不再独立"。一场大乱，已经开始 了。 来源:金融界 第二，新美联储通讯社发文称，"美联储主席鲍威尔的盟友"纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周五接受采访时表 示，他将以"非常开放的心态"参加9月份的降息会议。这是其第一次加前缀来称呼威廉姆斯——美联储 主席鲍威尔的盟友——显然是鲍威尔本人不便发声，就让身边人表态。 周五的非农数据公布，引发了降息预期——市场对美联储9月降息的概率从40%飙升至90%，部分交易 员甚至开始押注美联储会直接降息50基点。 第一，降息预期如此迫切的并非7月非农，而是5月、6月非农数据被大幅下修到了个位数——原来你之 前说的"稳健"，现在告诉我是假的。 ...

国际金价8月1日涨超1% 本周累计涨近2% 美国7月就业数据远不及预期，推高了市场对美联储的降息预期，而新的关税措施生效刺激了市场的避险需求，本周五国际金价上涨。截至收盘，纽约商 品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3399.80美元，涨幅为1.53%，触及一周高点。本周国际金价累计上涨1.92%。 美国6月非农就业人数意外增长14.7万，这不仅高于5月的14.4万新增岗位，也大幅超越经济学家普遍预测的11万，显示美国劳动力市场成功抵御了特朗普 政府贸易和移民政策带来的不确定性。这一意外强劲的数据将减轻美联储的降息压力，尽管特朗普多次公开呼吁该行采取降息行动。美联储主席鲍威尔本 周表态称，7月降息"仍在考虑范围内"，这似乎扭转了他此前"维持利率不变至秋季"的立场。 美债收益率、美元跳水。现货黄金、现货白银短线拉升。 | < W | | | 美元指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | USDX.FX | | | | 99.0169 | | 前收 | 100.0654 | 开元 | 100.0560 | | -1.0485 -1.05% | | 卖 ...

巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）2日发表声明，回应美国中东问题特使威特科夫称哈马斯已"准备好解 除武装"的言论，表示哈马斯不会解除武装，直至建立一个独立、拥有完全主权的巴勒斯坦国。 当地时间8月2日，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）发表声明强调，"除非全面恢复我们的民族权利，其中 最重要的是建立一个以耶路撒冷为首都、享有完全主权的独立的巴勒斯坦国，否则就不能放弃武装抵抗。" 声明称，只要以色列对巴勒斯坦领土的占领持续存在，抵抗运动及其武装手段就是巴勒斯坦民族应有的合法权 利。 据以色列媒体《国土报》2日报道，威特科夫当天现身以色列中部城市特拉维夫，与被扣押人员家属会面。威 特科夫提到，哈马斯表示已"准备好解除武装"，多个阿拉伯国家政府正要求哈马斯解除武装。 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡7月31日与到访的威特科夫会晤后，一名以色列高级官员向媒体吹风称，以美双方同 意，不再寻求就短期停火、部分被扣押人员获释达成协议，而是改为寻求一项全面方案，即解除哈马斯武装、 实现加沙地带"非军事化"并使所有被扣押人员获释。 据以色列《国土报》8月1日援引一名以方消息人士的话报道，以色列与哈马斯围绕加沙地带停火的谈判眼下难 以重启。 这 ...

1. 7月基金发行超900亿份，科创债ETF成亮点。 7月基金发行即将落幕，整体呈现回暖态势。从数据来看， 以基金成立日作为统计标准，7月已有115只新基金成立，合计发行份额超900亿份。在权益市场的提振和科 创债ETF等债券创新产品的激励下，7月股票和债券型基金的份额占比均有提升，仅混合型产品份额下降。在 业内人士看来，后续市场风险偏好仍有望处于上行阶段，权益类资产存在配置性价比。 2. 债市"冲击波"：谁在偷笑？谁在颤抖？基金公司打出应对"组合拳"。 股债"跷跷板"效应正持续发酵—— 股市、商品市场持续向好，债基却深陷泥沼，部分流出资金正进入权益市场。债券基金经理们开始多线发 力：降久期去杠杆，提前预防净值波动；紧盯散户情绪，做好流动性应对措施；挽留机构客户，缓解赎回压 力。 3. 54 只权益基金近一年业绩翻倍，广发基金上榜数量居首。 截至 7 月 25 日收盘的最近一年，市场上共有 54 只基金收益 率超过 100% ，其中，主动型基金有 34 只。权益投资能力突出的基金管理人也再度在本轮行情中交出了较为亮眼的投资 成绩单。以广发基金为例，在近一年收益率翻倍的 54 只基金中，广发基金旗下有 6 只产 ...

全球金融市场惊涛骇浪：美联储独立性面临严峻考验 全球金融市场遭遇剧烈震荡，其导火索是美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的突然辞职。8月8日，库格勒正式辞去原本任期至2026年1月的职 位，比原计划提前五个月。这一事件，如同投下的一枚重磅炸弹，引发了连锁反应，最终导致美股蒸发万亿美元，美元暴跌，全球投资者信心严重受挫。 库格勒的辞职充满了扑朔迷离的疑云。其简短的辞职信中仅提及"重返大学任教"，并未解释提前离职的真正原因。 就在辞职前，她因"个人事务"缺席了本 周美联储的关键议息会议，未能参与关于是否降息的投票。 然而，美国总统特朗普却迅速抓住机会，公开指责美联储主席鲍威尔，并宣称库格勒与鲍威尔 存在分歧，这一说法与库格勒一贯的"鹰派"立场相悖，更增添了事件的神秘色彩。 | Stay Connected - Recent Postings - Calendar Publications Site Map - A-Z index - Careers FAQs Videos Contact | Search | | | | | | | Advanced | | --- | --- | --- ...

8月1日20时40分左右，金价快速飙升，现货黄金已涨破3340美元关口，日内涨幅超1.5%。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 3340.300 | | 昨结 | 3289.710 | 总量 | | 0 | | +50.590 | +154% 一篇 | | 3289.830 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 3340.893 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3281.270 | 增 仓 | 0 | 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | EK | 高K | 月K | 車 名 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 3340.893 | | | | | 1.56%】卖一 3340.560 | | | | | | | | 2- 3340.300 | | | | | | | | 20:45 3340.213 20:45 3340.310 | 0 191 | | | | ...

Core Points - The sudden resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler allows President Trump to appoint a new policymaker aligned with his views on interest rates sooner than expected [3][4] - Kugler expressed her honor in serving on the Federal Reserve Board during a critical time for achieving the dual mandate of lowering prices while maintaining a strong labor market [3] - The resignation is effective August 8, and Kugler will return to Georgetown University as a professor [5] Federal Reserve Context - Kugler's term was originally set to end in January 2026, and her departure marks a significant change in the Federal Reserve's composition [3][4] - Trump and his allies have been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has not occurred so far this year [3][9] - Following Kugler's resignation announcement, there was a notable increase in market bets on interest rate cuts, with traders fully pricing in two 25 basis point cuts this year [7] Market Reaction - The news of Kugler's resignation contributed to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly affecting the two-year note, which saw its largest drop since December 2023 [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by over 1.38% on August 1, reflecting market sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts [7][8] Political Implications - Trump expressed satisfaction with Kugler's resignation and suggested that Fed Chair Jerome Powell should also resign, indicating a desire for a shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership [11][12] - The pressure from Trump intensified after the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates during a recent meeting, with no clear indication of a potential cut in the September meeting [9][12]

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000[1][11]. - The unemployment rate in July 2025 was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from the previous 4.1%[1][14]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% and revised from a previous increase of 3.7%[1][14]. Data Revision Insights - The June non-farm payrolls were revised down by a total of 258,000, with significant downward adjustments in government, leisure, and construction sectors, accounting for 90,000 of the total revision[2][12]. - The downward revision reflects the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy, indicating a decline in the accuracy of the "birth-death model" used for employment predictions[2][5]. Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities, education, and healthcare sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing stability in service sector demand[3][27]. - The goods-producing sector continued to show negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating weak production intentions among businesses[3][28]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in June, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][35]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2%[4][35]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts, with market predictions indicating three rate cuts in 2025, starting in September with an 83.4% probability[5][26]. - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with the second quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, but core GDP growth showing signs of decline[5][23].