Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental research on issuers in a weak economic environment, highlighting the recent incident involving China Aviation Industry Corporation as a case in point [1][15][22] - It notes that the probability of credit spread compression is high in May, driven by favorable monetary conditions and the need for institutional investors to adjust their preferences in a low-interest-rate environment [1][15][19] - The report suggests that the current market conditions favor short-term credit products, while the demand for medium to long-term credit bonds may be constrained due to regulatory impacts on wealth management products [1][15][23] Group 2 - The strategy for credit bonds includes focusing on high-yielding products and extending duration where possible, particularly in the 4-5 year range, while being cautious about liquidity [2][3][23] - It highlights that the current yield spreads for various credit products are at historically high levels, indicating potential for further compression, especially in the 2-3 year and 4-5 year categories [2][24][26] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, such as local government bonds and high-rated real estate bonds, while advising caution in lower-rated sectors due to ongoing credit risks [4][5][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury futures market, attributing it to regulatory expectations, particularly regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) and its impact on swap spreads and market liquidity [4][10][13]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury futures market has experienced significant volatility since April, particularly in the 10-year contract, raising concerns about potential large-scale unwinding of basis trades [4][10]. - Analysis of positions and trading data indicates that there is insufficient evidence to suggest a massive unwinding of basis trades, as the open interest in 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y contracts has only decreased by 1%-5%, which is much less than the 15%-25% drop seen during the 2020 pandemic [7][10]. - The current volatility is primarily driven by market expectations regarding regulatory changes, specifically discussions around SLR exemptions, which could affect banks' ability to expand their balance sheets and increase liquidity in the Treasury market [10][13]. Group 2: Chinese Dollar Bond Market Insights - Following the announcement of new tariffs on Chinese products in early April, there has been a notable increase in risk aversion within the Asian dollar bond market, although credit spreads have not widened significantly [14][16]. - The valuation advantage of Chinese dollar bonds has become more pronounced, with the OAS of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds widening by approximately 20 basis points, while Chinese dollar bonds only widened by about 14 basis points, indicating a potential undervaluation [14][16]. - Despite a downgrade in China's long-term foreign currency issuer rating by Fitch, Chinese dollar bond credit spreads have remained relatively stable, reflecting investor confidence in the credit quality and refinancing risks of Chinese enterprises [16][19]. Group 3: Asset-Backed Securities and Mortgage Market - The U.S. mortgage market has seen tightening credit conditions, particularly affecting ordinary loan applicants, although the overall mortgage availability index has slightly improved due to relaxed restrictions on Jumbo loans [20][21]. - The structural changes in the MBS market, driven by a reduction in government roles in housing finance, suggest a shift towards non-agency and high-net-worth client segments, indicating a need for investors to focus on high-quality MBS assets [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the sales of new energy vehicles increased. The estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in April were 1.14 million, a year - on - year increase of 42% and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The cumulative wholesale from January to April this year was estimated to be 4 million, a year - on - year increase of 42 [1]. - In the first quarter, under the support of a series of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, large - scale light industrial enterprises achieved an operating income of 5.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, and a profit of over 300 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [1]. - In April, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 51.1%. The overall demand for logistics services maintained an expansion trend, with a significant recovery in the western region. The fixed - asset investment completion index reached a three - year high, and both railway and waterway investments maintained rapid growth [1]. - During the "May Day" holiday, consumption demand was strong. The sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 15.2% year - on - year. Driven by the "trade - in" policy, the sales revenue of household appliances and audio - visual equipment increased by 167.5% year - on - year, communication equipment increased by 118% year - on - year, and furniture increased by 1.7 times year - on - year [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International oil prices continued to fluctuate due to tariffs [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, and nickel fluctuated due to tariffs [2]. - Building materials: The prices of cement and building materials continued to decline [2]. - Chemical industry: The prices of PTA and soda ash declined compared to the same period last week [2]. Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA recovered; the operating rate of PX declined recently; the operating rates of polyester and urea were at this year's high [2]. - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt reached a three - year low [2]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were the same as the same period last year, at a three - year low [2]. - Services: The number of international flights increased, while the number of domestic flights decreased compared to the same period [2]. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year's Same Period | One Quarter Ago | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery | 69.91 | 82.75 | 79.77 | 76.10 | 77.76 | 9.80 | | Mining | 37.70 | 48.62 | 46.09 | 46.92 | 47.91 | 26.10 | | Chemical Industry | 68.63 | 69.46 | 66.11 | 62.01 | 63.09 | 3.30 | | Steel | 45.28 | 58.70 | 55.06 | 55.91 | 55.99 | 17.10 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 49.62 | 57.51 | 54.99 | 57.70 | 58.77 | 30.20 | | Electronics | 59.65 | 79.88 | 71.75 | 70.84 | 77.65 | 51.60 | | Automobile | 65.91 | 77.15 | 48.35 | 51.29 | 51.29 | 2.50 | | Household Appliances | 46.53 | 54.97 | 47.18 | 51.64 | 53.02 | 17.80 | | Food and Beverage | 44.33 | 44.75 | 44.82 | 45.90 | 45.51 | 14.70 | | Textile and Apparel | 51.60 | 63.87 | 52.58 | 54.15 | 55.00 | 12.90 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 80.48 | 191.11 | 199.42 | 167.39 | 165.50 | 9.10 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 59.52 | 67.28 | 69.00 | 72.61 | 73.82 | 33.80 | | Public Utilities | 27.75 | 33.02 | 33.01 | 33.96 | 33.99 | 28.80 | | Transportation | 35.15 | 37.54 | 36.21 | 37.50 | 38.14 | 16.80 | | Real Estate | 417.18 | 333.93 | 158.87 | 126.02 | 125.70 | 8.70 | | Commerce and Trade | 51.18 | 53.14 | 49.64 | 51.14 | 51.36 | 15.20 | | Leisure Services | 70.79 | 103.17 | 111.30 | 124.07 | 127.15 | 100.00 | | Banking | 28.82 | 22.57 | 26.31 | 20.39 | 19.75 | 6.80 | | Non - banking Finance | 34.34 | 35.93 | 34.43 | 35.19 | 35.76 | 19.10 | | Comprehensive | 67.08 | 52.21 | 47.75 | 50.35 | 51.02 | 7.70 | | Building Materials | 38.98 | 47.52 | 45.49 | 46.85 | 47.38 | 25.60 | | Building Decoration | 47.99 | 57.41 | 54.00 | 55.04 | 56.84 | 19.00 | | Electrical Equipment | 60.42 | 85.96 | 82.28 | 80.41 | 83.45 | 48.10 | | Machinery and Equipment | 38.80 | 45.15 | 42.70 | 45.46 | 48.31 | 37.00 | | Computer | 72.69 | 73.92 | 64.40 | 62.63 | 62.98 | 2.00 | | Media | 229.75 | 46.00 | 46.89 | 46.31 | 46.41 | 4.60 | | Communication | 232.58 | 39.43 | 32.45 | 29.14 | 28.75 | 3.60 | [46] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 2282.9 | 1.33% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 5/7 | 6.6 | 2.22% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 8584.0 | - 2.01% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 14124.3 | - 1.04% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 5/7 | 21.0 | 2.09% | | | | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 78520.0 | 0.46% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 22758.0 | - 1.85% | | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 19630.0 | 2.26% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 125683.3 | 0.52% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 16637.5 | - 1.41% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 3177.2 | 0.81% | | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 781.4 | - 0.23% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 3377.5 | 1.43% | | | | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 5/7 | 15.2 | 2.57% | | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 14578.3 | 0.76% | | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 833.0 | - 0.86% | | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 5/7 | 59.1 | 2.20% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 5/7 | 62.2 | - 1.79% | | | Energy | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 4282.0 | 0.23% | | | | Coal price: coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 788.0 | - 0.38% | | | | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 4552.8 | 1.38% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 7500.0 | - 0.88% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 1906.7 | 1.60% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 5/7 | 1462.5 | - 2.66% | | | | National cement price index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 144.9 | - 2.24% | | | Real Estate | Building materials composite index | Daily | - | 5/7 | 116.1 | - 0.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Point | 5/7 | 100.3 | 0.00% | | [47]

中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 关注5月关税战对上游原材料的影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：4月制造业PMI回落。 1）4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制 造业景气水平有所回落。从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1 和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 服务行业：五一假期旅游消费增长较多。 1）据工信部，一季度，我国规模以上互联网和相关服务企业完成互联 网业务收入4118亿元，同比增长1.4%；规模以上互联网企业研发经费增速加快，共投入研发经费204.5亿元，同比 增长4.6%。2）据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，假期5天全国国内出游3.14亿人次，同比增长6.4%；国内游客出游 总花费1802.69亿元，同比增长8.0%。 数据来源：央视新闻，iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 宏观日报 | 2025-05-07 上游：1）能源：国际油价假期受关税影响回落较多。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、 ...

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）文件显示，苹果公司于当地时间周一发行四期公司债券，这是该公司两年 来首次进行债务融资，所得资金预计将用于回购股票、偿还未偿债务以及其他用途。发行规模尚未公 布，但据CreditSights分析师预测，苹果此次预计将筹资近50亿至60亿美元。分析师指出，从5月至11 月，苹果有约80亿美元的债务即将到期。 更值得关注的一点是，关税政策的不确定性导致苹果未来将会在成本上大幅增加。在业绩会上，苹果公 司CEO库克透露，在当前关税结构下，苹果将在截至6月的季度产生9亿美元的成本。相关统计数据指 出，关税的不确定性已导致苹果股价今年下跌约15%，市值蒸发逾6000亿美元。 苹果此次发行的债券预计将获得穆迪评级公司的最高等级Aaa，以及标普全球评级公司的次高等级 AA+。 苹果本次发债正值信用利差回升之际。信用利差指的是企业为债务融资所支付的溢价，即相对于美国国 债的利差。自美国总统特朗普宣布对等关税（随后又公布了豁免政策）以来，信用利差有所反弹。 根据最新数据，截至上周五，投资级债券的平均信用利差为106个基点。 分析人士称，随着美联储加息周期接近尾声，当前市场流动性状况及投资者风险偏好将为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the observation of credit bonds in April 2025, including the issuance, maturity, trading volume, and credit spreads of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds. Overall, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased, while that of industrial bonds increased. The trading volumes of both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds declined, and the credit spreads of both narrowed [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity - **Credit Bond Issuance**: As of the end of April 2025, the outstanding balance of credit bonds in China was 29.62 trillion yuan. In April 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 146.1314 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.75%, with a net financing of 23.2001 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The outstanding balance of urban investment bonds was 15.42 trillion yuan. In April 2025, the issuance was 54.938 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 11.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.36%, with a net financing of - 7.1794 billion yuan. Regionally, Jiangsu had the highest issuance. In terms of ratings, AA + and AAA - rated bonds accounted for a large proportion [1][10]. - **Industrial Bonds**: The outstanding balance of industrial bonds was 14.21 trillion yuan. In April 2025, the issuance was 91.1934 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 55.33% and a year - on - year increase of 12.69%, with a net financing of 30.3644 billion yuan. By industry, public utilities had the highest issuance. In terms of ratings, AAA - rated bonds accounted for 88.67% [1][25]. - **Credit Bond Maturity**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: From May to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang had relatively large maturity scales, all exceeding 300 billion yuan [33]. - **Industrial Bonds**: From May to December 2025, public utilities, non - banking finance, real estate, transportation, and building decoration had relatively large maturity scales, all exceeding 300 billion yuan [35]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads - **Credit Bond Trading**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In April 2025, the trading volume was 99.5943 billion yuan, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The turnover rate was 6.46% [2][38]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In April 2025, the trading volume was 138.3813 billion yuan, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The turnover rate was 9.74% [2][41]. - **Credit Bond Spreads**: - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In April 2025, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds of all levels narrowed compared to the previous month. Regionally, the spreads of different regions and ratings showed different characteristics [2][43]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In April 2025, the credit spreads of industrial bonds of all levels narrowed compared to the previous month. By industry, the spreads of different industries and ratings showed different trends [2][46].

Report Title - "The Divergence of Long - Short Term Spreads - Credit Spread Weekly Report (5/4)" [1][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From April 27th to April 30th, most bond yields declined. For 0.5 - 1Y industrial bonds, commercial bank second - tier capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds, most yields dropped by over 2bp; for 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields decreased by over 1bp; for 2Y industrial bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields declined by over 1bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bond yield rose by over 2bp; and the 3 - 5Y commercial financial bond yield dropped by over 2bp. Regarding credit spreads, the 0.5Y industrial bonds and commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spreads mostly narrowed by over 5bp; the 1Y commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spread narrowed by over 3bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bonds and securities company perpetual bond credit spreads widened by over 3bp; and the 5Y urban investment bonds and industrial bond credit spreads mostly widened by over 2bp [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview Yield and Spread of Each Maturity - Treasury bond yields at 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y were 1.47%, 1.46%, 1.45%, 1.48%, and 1.52% respectively, with weekly changes of - 3.5bp, 0.9bp, - 2.2bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.2bp. Their historical quantiles were 11.9%, 13.2%, 8.7%, 6.2%, and 3.9% respectively. Similar data for other bond types such as national development bonds, local government bonds, etc., are also presented in detail [14] Credit Spread and Its Changes for Each Maturity - The 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y credit spreads of local government bonds were -, 12.01bp, 13.93bp, 14.34bp, and 14.37bp respectively, with weekly changes of -, 0.1bp, 0.2bp, - 1.5bp, and - 2.8bp. Their historical quantiles were -, 44.9%, 43.7%, 45.1%, and 38.6% respectively. Similar data for other bond types are also provided [16] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - In terms of yields, from April 27th to April 30th, most provincial urban investment bond yields declined. For example, the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond yield dropped by about 35bp. In terms of credit spreads, the 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly narrowed; the 2Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly widened; the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads showed differentiation, with the 3 - 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spreads narrowing significantly [7] Industrial Bonds by Industry - From April 27th to April 30th, industrial bond yields generally declined. The 0.5 - 1Y industrial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, the 2 - 3Y industrial bond credit spreads showed differentiation, and the 5Y industrial bond credit spreads generally widened [7] Financial Bonds by Subject - From April 27th to April 30th, financial bond yields generally declined, with the 5Y city commercial bank second - tier capital bond yield dropping by about 55bp. The 0.5 - 1Y financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 2 - 5Y financial bond credit spreads showed differentiation [7] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - Based on the balance average algorithm, from April 27th to April 30th, the 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond could target a return of over 3.2%, and the 5Y Qinghai urban investment bond could target a return of 3.0% or more. The 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns [8] Real Estate Private Enterprise Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the yields of real estate private enterprise bonds at all maturities were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y real estate private enterprise bond yields dropped by over 17bp [8] Financial Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could target a return of 4.7% or more [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and most credit spreads widened. Specifically, the yields of 0.5 - 1Y securities company subordinated bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 1Y industrial bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 2 - 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, and securities company ordinary bonds mostly rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 3Y commercial bank perpetual bonds rose by more than 1bp. The yields of 5Y industrial bonds, commercial bank secondary capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds rose by more than 3bp, and those of 2 - 5Y urban investment bonds mostly rose by more than 4bp. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of 1 - 2Y urban investment bonds and industrial bonds mostly widened by more than 1bp, those of 3Y urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and commercial bank secondary capital bonds mostly widened by more than 2bp, and the credit spreads of 5Y commercial financial bonds narrowed by more than 2bp [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview - **Yields and Changes by Term**: Various bond yields showed different degrees of increase. For example, the yields of government bonds, national development bonds, local government bonds, and various types of corporate bonds all had corresponding upward trends, with different magnitudes of change in different terms. For instance, the 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, while the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly [7][12]. - **Spreads and Changes by Term**: Credit spreads also showed different trends. The credit spreads of most bonds widened, but there were also some exceptions, such as the 5Y commercial financial bond credit spread which narrowed by more than 2bp. Different types of bonds and different terms had different degrees of spread change [2][6][14]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - **Urban Investment Bonds by Region**: The yields of urban investment bonds in most provinces increased, but the 5Y Shanghai urban investment bond yield decreased by about 11bp. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened, and the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. The performance of AA - rated bonds continued to be differentiated, with high - yield provinces often accompanied by larger credit spreads [7]. - **Industrial Bonds by Industry**: From April 21 to April 25, the yields of industrial bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads generally widened [7]. - **Financial Bonds by Issuer**: The yields of financial bonds generally increased, but the 2 - 3Y state - owned commercial bank financial bond yield decreased significantly, and the credit spread narrowed accordingly. The 5Y urban commercial bank secondary capital bond yield increased significantly by about 37bp, and the credit spread of financial bonds generally widened [7]. Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) - **Yields and Spread Differentiation**: From April 21 to April 25, most bond yields increased, and credit spreads were differentiated. The 5Y Guizhou bonds could achieve yields of more than 2.9%, and the 5Y Qinghai/Yunnan bonds could achieve yields of 3.1% and above, with the 5Y Guizhou bond spread significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns. Except for the obvious differentiation of AA - rated bond yields, there was no significant difference in the yields of the optimal individual bonds of urban investment bonds in provinces with medium - and high implicit ratings. In terms of administrative levels, Guizhou district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 4.3%, and Yunnan district - level bonds could achieve yields of more than 3.9%. The yields of real - estate private enterprise bonds at all terms were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y basic chemical industry yields decreased by more than 12bp. The credit spreads of financial bonds were differentiated, and the yields of 0 - 0.5Y/3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could achieve 4.0% and above [8].

Group 1: Corporate Fraud Case - A company was found to have inflated its revenue by 1 billion yuan to meet bond issuance requirements, leading to significant financial losses for investors [1] - The case involved fraudulent activities including the use of falsified documents and accounting practices [1] - The company ultimately faced challenges in repaying 150 million yuan in investment funds due to its inability to service bond principal and interest [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - In March, the bond market in China issued a total of 87,356.6 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including government bonds, local government bonds, and corporate credit bonds [3] - The issuance included 12,786.3 billion yuan in national bonds, 9,788.0 billion yuan in local government bonds, and 13,335.2 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds [3] Group 3: Special Government Bonds - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the issuance of 81 billion yuan in special long-term government bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs [4] - The initiative aims to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises and ensure that funds reach consumers effectively [4] Group 4: Regional Financial Support - Beijing has approved a plan to extend the loan term for working capital loans to private enterprises up to 10 years, enhancing support for small and micro enterprises [4] - The plan includes increased credit support for first-time loans and renewals for small businesses [4] Group 5: Bond Issuance Activities - Several companies successfully completed bond issuances, including Henan Capital Group with 400 million yuan in bonds at a 2.6% interest rate [5] - Zhengzhou Development Investment Group plans to issue up to 5 billion yuan in bonds, with a maximum term of 10 years [6] - Luoyang Urban-Rural Construction Investment Group issued 500 million yuan in medium-term notes with varying interest rates [7] Group 6: Credit Ratings and Financial Developments - The international long-term issuer rating for Nanyang Investment Group was upgraded from 'BBB+' to 'A-' with a stable outlook [13] - Anhui Communications Control Group Financial Company received approval to establish a financial institution, marking a significant development in state-owned capital management [14] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict a noticeable decline in net supply of credit bonds after May, with a generally favorable market environment for the bond market [17] - The credit spread is expected to remain stable, with short-term credit spreads likely to stay low [17]

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...