转自：人民政协报 刚刚过去的2025年，既是"十四五"规划的收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局的衔接之年，更是为基 本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础的关键之年。回望全年，我国经济顶住内外多重压力，持续向新向优进 阶，经济总量预计迈上140万亿元新台阶，圆满完成5%左右的增长目标，充分彰显出强大的发展韧性。 其中，培育和发展新质生产力、实施扩大内需战略、推进高水平对外开放、防范和化解风险、落地适度 宽松政策、深化绿色低碳转型发展路径等，成为驱动经济高质量发展的核心发力点，为稳定预期筑牢坚 实基础。2026年我国经济发展将紧扣"稳中求进、提质增效"主线推进各项工作。以更加积极有为的财政 政策，保持必要支出强度，坚决兜牢基层"三保"底线。执行适度宽松的货币政策，精准助力经济稳定增 长与物价合理回升。 就预期管理来看，当前仍然面临"政策传导梗阻""结构性痛点未消"的现实挑战。一是部分领域存在"政 策热、市场冷"的温度差，2025年设备更新投资同比增长12.2%，但民营企业、中小企业因盈利预期不 明朗、转型信心不足而"不敢投、不愿投"。二是民生领域确定性保障不足，优质教育、医疗资源分布不 均问题尚未根本破解，房地产市场下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market is reaching its peak, with investors optimistic about the strategy to expand domestic demand and the expectation of a strong start to the year [1] Market Performance - This week, the stock market saw a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that new capital is entering the market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded significantly, reaching a new high for this round of market activity, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced an even larger rebound, also hitting a new high for the year [1] - The average daily trading volume for both markets exceeded 28 trillion yuan this week, a substantial increase compared to the previous week [1] Sector Highlights - Market hotspots this week were primarily concentrated in the military and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [1] - The ratio of the CSI 2000 to the CSI 300 (after normalization) was 1.42, continuing to rise since the end of 2025 [1] - Small-cap and technology stocks led the gains throughout the week [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index completed a small double bottom pattern and is currently challenging higher target levels [1] - The index experienced downward adjustments in late November and mid-December 2025, with the rebound process now underway, having surpassed the target level of the small double bottom pattern [1] - Future attention should be paid to the volume-price relationship, similar to the double bottom pattern [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

Group 1 - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, has initiated a package of policies to promote domestic demand through coordinated fiscal and financial measures, emphasizing the importance of these policies in driving effective demand and macroeconomic regulation [1] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is seen as essential for addressing the complexities of economic transformation and external shocks, with experts noting that traditional policy models are insufficient for the current economic landscape [1][2] - In 2025, the proactive fiscal policy is expected to accelerate government bond issuance, with net financing of government bonds reaching 11 trillion yuan in 2024 and anticipated increases in 2025, including 1.3 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a buyout reverse repurchase tool to support local government bond financing, which has positively impacted infrastructure investment growth in the first half of 2025 [3] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies has led to effective communication and practice, enhancing the stability of market expectations and reducing government debt costs [3] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand are being executed through coordinated efforts from both fiscal and monetary sides, with a focus on increasing the supply of high-quality services [4][5] Group 3 - The government is implementing measures to support private investment, including loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises and establishing risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprise bonds [6] - The shift in credit allocation towards key sectors of the national economy is being guided by the PBOC, reflecting the ongoing economic transition away from reliance on real estate and infrastructure [6] - Structural monetary policy tools are being combined with fiscal subsidies to facilitate easier access to loans for quality enterprises, promoting credit market prosperity in targeted areas [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is experiencing a significant transformation, moving from quantity to quality, driven by various factors including government policies and changing consumer preferences [1][4][6] Group 1: Consumer Activity - During the New Year holiday, 142 million domestic trips were made in China, with total spending reaching 84.789 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer activity [1] - Hainan's duty-free sales on January 1 reached 251 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.8%, showcasing the appeal of winter tourism and shopping [2] - The rise of "China Shopping" reflects a shift in purchasing trends, with consumers increasingly buying high-tech products and cultural items rather than traditional goods [2][3] Group 2: Policy Support - The Chinese government is implementing a series of policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including a more proactive fiscal policy and specific actions to boost consumer spending [4][5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting consumption as a key driver for balanced economic growth, highlighting the importance of consumer spending in the overall economy [5][6] Group 3: Economic Resilience - China's consumer market is not only recovering but also showing signs of structural optimization and enhanced internal momentum, contributing to economic resilience [6] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a steady expansion of market demand [6] Group 4: Global Opportunities - Global companies and investors are encouraged to adapt to the evolving Chinese market, particularly in retail and service sectors, to capitalize on the growing consumer base [7] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards local products and experiences, presenting new opportunities for foreign brands to tailor their strategies to meet local demands [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent State Council meeting is on optimizing policies to stimulate domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration, aiming for both immediate and long-term benefits [1][5] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of "collaboration" and "precision" in policy implementation, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate market confidence and economic recovery [1][5] - A systematic "toolbox" of policies was introduced, targeting both consumption and investment as key drivers of domestic demand [2][3] Group 2 - The "double interest subsidy" policy was highlighted, which aims to reduce financing costs for service industry operators and personal consumption loans, thereby enhancing consumer spending [2][3] - A comprehensive policy matrix was established to support private investment, including loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises and a special guarantee plan for private investment [3][4] - The meeting also stressed the importance of ensuring effective implementation of these policies, with a focus on facilitating access to funds and managing their usage efficiently [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The speech emphasizes the importance of optimizing national income distribution to enhance residents' income, addressing the current economic challenges of strong supply and weak demand, particularly in the context of consumption stagnation [3][38]. Group 1: Economic Background - The current economic situation is characterized by "strong supply and weak demand," with the core issue being weak consumption [3][38]. - The government has implemented measures such as consumer incentives and fiscal subsidies to stimulate consumption, which have shown positive results [3][38]. - To fundamentally resolve consumption issues, income distribution reform is essential, focusing on improving consumption capacity, willingness, and supply-demand adaptability [3][38]. Group 2: Characteristics of National Income Distribution - China's national income distribution exhibits four main characteristics: 1. Residents have the highest income share among the three sectors, followed by enterprises, with the government having the lowest share [6][21]. 2. The share of residents' income is moderately low compared to international standards, primarily due to low property income [12][21]. 3. The enterprise sector's income share is relatively high, ranking fifth among 20 sample economies, influenced by the high proportion of state-owned enterprises [13][21]. 4. The government sector has a low income share and weak redistributive capacity, with a significant reliance on indirect taxes [15][21]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Income Distribution - The income distribution structure is determined by development stages, resource endowments, and industrial structures [22][30]. - The transition from a supply-shortage to a demand-shortage economy necessitates a shift in the income distribution model towards labor compensation [22][30]. - The relationship between industrial structure and income distribution indicates that labor-intensive sectors tend to have higher resident income shares, while capital-intensive sectors do not [22][30]. Group 4: Recommendations for Optimizing Income Distribution - To address the imbalance of low resident income share and high enterprise share, two main strategies are proposed: 1. Increase state-owned enterprise contributions to the fiscal budget to enhance social security benefits for residents [25][30]. 2. Encourage listed companies to increase dividends and implement equity incentives to boost residents' property income [25][30]. - Establish a long-term wage growth mechanism to stabilize employment and promote wage increases through fiscal support for companies that raise salaries [26][30]. - Enhance the direct tax system to improve its redistributive function, including optimizing personal income tax deductions and introducing property taxes [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 is pivotal for China's economy, showcasing resilience and vitality amidst various challenges, while 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Economic Development - China is committed to high-quality development, responding calmly to unprecedented challenges such as trade wars, and is determined to expand its openness [1] - The construction of a unified national market is crucial for promoting high-quality development and efficient resource allocation [3][4] Market Dynamics - The establishment of a unified national market is seen as a key support for the new development pattern, facilitating smoother flow of goods and resources [3] - Despite progress, hidden barriers still exist in market access and regulatory enforcement, necessitating ongoing efforts to address these issues [4] Policy Initiatives - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breaking down barriers to market construction and improving the regulatory framework [4][5] - The introduction of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" in May 2025 marks a significant step in supporting the private sector, ensuring equal treatment in market competition [6] Consumer Demand - Expanding domestic demand is a central theme for 2025, with a focus on boosting consumption and investment efficiency [9][10] - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption have shown positive results, with retail sales increasing by 4% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025 [10] Investment Trends - Investment demand has weakened, particularly in real estate, but there is a shift towards high-quality investments in advanced manufacturing and green transformation [11] - The focus is on optimizing investment structure, moving from scale-based to efficiency-based investments [11] International Trade and Cooperation - China's high-level opening-up is characterized by mutual benefit and cooperation, with significant growth in service trade and foreign investment [13][15] - The number of international trade agreements and the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative have strengthened China's position in global trade [14] Private Sector Engagement - Regular breakfast meetings between government officials and private sector leaders have facilitated effective communication and problem-solving [7] - New policies have been introduced to lower barriers for private enterprises in key sectors, enhancing their role in national projects [8]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent State Council meeting is on optimizing domestic demand through a series of financial and fiscal policy measures aimed at enhancing consumer spending and investment [1][2][5] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of "collaboration" and "precision" in policy implementation, aiming to create a synergistic effect between fiscal and financial policies to stimulate market confidence and economic recovery [1][3] - A systematic "toolbox" of policies has been introduced, targeting both consumer and investment sectors, including the "dual interest subsidy" policy to support service industry loans and personal consumption loans [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting outlines a robust policy matrix to support private investment, including loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises, a special guarantee plan for private investment, and a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds [3][4] - The "dual interest subsidy" policy is designed to lower financing costs for service providers and enhance consumer credit affordability, thereby promoting a virtuous cycle of supply and demand [2][3] - The emphasis on effective policy implementation and management is highlighted, ensuring that funds are used efficiently and that the benefits reach both businesses and consumers [4][5]

大力提振消费，推进建设强大国内市场，积极扩大自主开放，推动贸易创新发展，拓展双向投资合作空 间，实现"十五五"商务高质量发展良好开局。 会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要自觉把思想和行动统一到党中央决策部署上来，学习好、运用好中央 经济工作会议关于"五个必须"的规律性认识，重点做好八个方面工作： 会议认为，"十四五"时期消费主引擎作用明显增强，贸易强国"三大支柱"更加巩固，利用外资总量稳 定、结构优化，对外投资平稳发展，产供链国际合作有序推进，高水平对外开放步伐加快，多双边经贸 合作不断深化，维护经济安全能力显著提升，为"十五五"时期商务发展奠定坚实基础。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好商务工作意义重大。全国商务系统要以习近平新时代中国 特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，认真落实中央经济工作会议部 署，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总 基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，立足商务工作"三个重要"定位， 1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想 ...