来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 刘诗萌 北京报道 "稳楼市"的提法，在一年一度的中央经济工作会议前夕，再度出现在高层会议的表述中。 12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第十七次专题 学习。国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深入实施城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合 起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 值得注意的是，去年的中央经济工作会议明确提出要"稳住楼市股市"，并在多处强调了大力实施城市更新、城中 村改造，赋予"稳楼市"在新一轮高质量发展中的重要使命，今年3月政府工作报告也再次提到稳住楼市股市。而相 比之下，"消除安全隐患"则是一个新的提法，在近期香港大埔宏福苑火灾事故发生之后，各地也掀起了高层建筑 火灾隐患的排查行动。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《华夏时报》记者表示，在城市发展新阶段，将城市更新与消除安全隐患 紧密结合，是保障城市安全运行的必然要求，体现城市韧性发展导向。这一新表述说明2026年关于危旧房的安全 隐患消除工作会提速，将明显提高房屋体检等工作的重要性，同时危旧房改造力度也会加大。 新提"消除安全隐患 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai nickel will experience short - term shock adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the resistance level of 119,000 [3]. - In the macro - aspect, the ADP in the US unexpectedly declined in November, with employment decreasing by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high [3]. - In the fundamental aspect, the nickel ore imports are on a downward trend as the Philippines enters the rainy season. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible export policy changes are potential variables but have limited impact on supply recently. The nickel - iron production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia are being put into production one after another. Although some production has been cut due to shortages of intermediate raw materials and profit losses, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large [3]. - On the demand side, the cost of nickel - iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small amount of incremental demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, and the market mainly purchases according to demand, with the spot premium rising. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend [3]. - Technically, the position remains stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 117,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,875 US dollars/ton, an increase of 135 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 118,041 lots, a decrease of 577 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 27,672 lots, an increase of 539 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 252,990 tons, a decrease of 84 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,782 tons, an increase of 987 tons. The total cancelled warrants of LME nickel are 8,436 tons, a decrease of 156 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 35,096 tons, an increase of 2,501 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 120,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main NI contract is 2,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 510 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 196.14 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 4682,800 tons per month, a decrease of 1431,700 tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,4873,300 tons per week, a decrease of 124,300 tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 57.33 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.61 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel - iron is 22,900 metal tons, an increase of 1,200 metal tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 180 tons, an increase of 9939.65 tons. The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 59.76 tons, a decrease of 18.02 tons [3]. - The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 90.51 tons, an increase of 1.23 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - On December 3, the State Council conducted the 17th special study with the theme of "Deeply promoting people - centered new - type urbanization and striving to build a new pattern of integrated urban - rural development". Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle [3]. - The ADP in the US unexpectedly declined in November, with employment decreasing by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high, with an expected value of 52.0 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Index futures are likely to oscillate strongly; ten - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate widely; thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate weakly and widely. Gold futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate; silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, tin, and polycrystalline silicon futures are likely to oscillate strongly; palladium and lithium carbonate futures are likely to oscillate widely; alumina, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, PVC, and natural rubber futures are likely to oscillate weakly; crude oil and corn futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook Points - Index futures are likely to oscillate strongly. The resistance and support levels for IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are given respectively. Ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2603 is likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 108.10 and 108.20 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.85 yuan. Thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 is likely to oscillate weakly and widely, with support at 113.3 and 113.0 yuan and resistance at 114.0 and 114.2 yuan [2] - Gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support at 951.4 and 945.5 yuan/g and resistance at 963.3 and 970.6 yuan/g. Silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 13900 and 14000 yuan/kg. Platinum futures main contract PT2606 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 444.1 and 448.4 yuan/g. Palladium futures main contract PD2606 is likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 385.7 and 388.1 yuan/g and support at 378.3 and 375.5 yuan/g. Copper futures main contract CU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, attack the resistance at 91500 and 92000 yuan/ton, and set a new record high. Aluminum futures main contract AL2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 22050 and 22160 yuan/ton [3] - Alumina futures main contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly, test the support at 2600 and 2580 yuan/ton, and set a new record low. Tin futures main contract SN2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 325000 and 330000 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon futures main contract PS2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and widely. Lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 is likely to oscillate widely. Rebar futures main contract RB2605 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 3146 and 3125 yuan/ton [4] - Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2605 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 3298 and 3273 yuan/ton. Iron ore futures main contract I2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 790 and 788 yuan/ton. Coking coal futures main contract JM2605 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 1144 and 1125 yuan/ton. Glass futures main contract FG601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 999 and 985 yuan/ton. Soda ash futures main contract SA601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 1141 and 1130 yuan/ton. Crude oil futures main contract SC2601 is likely to oscillate strongly. PVC futures main contract V2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 4493 and 4458 yuan/ton. Corn futures main contract C2601 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 2280 and 2291 yuan/ton. Natural rubber futures main contract RU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 14880 and 14650 yuan/ton [6][7] 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - The State Council Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. The US President Trump signed a law on US - Taiwan relations, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Plan (2023 - 2035)" [8] - From January to November this year, consumer goods replacement drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade import and export volume was 65844.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%; the service trade deficit was 7663.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2693.9 billion yuan. Local governments have launched a parenting subsidy of 3600 yuan per year for eligible families with infants under 3 years old, and over 30 million application information has been approved [8][9] - The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the legality of tariffs, while 9 Japanese companies have sued for a refund. The US November ADP employment data showed a decrease of 32000 jobs, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90%. Bond investors are worried about Kevin Hassett's possible appointment as the Fed Chairman. The US government is promoting the development of the robot industry [9][10] - The US November ISM services PMI rose to 52.6. The EU will ban the import of Russian natural gas from the autumn of 2027, and Hungary and Slovakia will sue. Belgium rejected the plan to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. The EU plans to launch the "Industrial Acceleration Act". The eurozone November composite PMI was revised up to 52.8. The World Bank reported that the gap between debt repayment and new financing in developing countries reached a 50 - year high [10][11] 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - On Wednesday, December 3, international precious metal futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.33% to 4234.8 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.39% to 58.93 US dollars/ounce. US oil and Brent crude oil futures rose. London base metals mostly rose, with LME copper hitting a new high [11][12] - Glencore plans to increase copper production to about 1.6 million tons by 2035. The European Central Bank asked Italy to re - examine its gold reserve proposal. The on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [12][13] 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Index Futures - On December 3, index futures contracts IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all showed a trend of rebounding, encountering resistance, and then falling slightly. The A - share market oscillated and declined, with most stocks falling and low trading volume. The Hong Kong stock market also fell, while the US stock market rose slightly, and the European stock market had mixed results [14][16][18] - It is expected that index futures will likely oscillate strongly on December 4, and will likely oscillate widely in December 2025, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [19][20] Treasury Bond Futures - Ten - year treasury bond futures main contract T2603 on December 3 showed a slight increase, and it is expected to oscillate widely on December 4. Thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 on December 3 fell, and it is expected to oscillate weakly and widely on December 4 [35][40] Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures main contract AU2602 on December 3 fell slightly and is expected to oscillate and consolidate on December 4. Silver futures main contract AG2602 on December 3 rose and is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4. Platinum futures main contract PT2606 on December 3 fell slightly and is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4. Palladium futures main contract PD2606 on December 3 rose and is expected to oscillate widely on December 4 [42][51][54] Base Metal Futures - Copper futures main contract CU2601 on December 3 rose slightly, is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4, and will set a new record high. Aluminum futures main contract AL2601 on December 3 rose slightly and is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4. Alumina futures main contract AO2601 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4 and set a new record low. Tin futures main contract SN2601 on December 3 rose and is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4 [58][64][69] Other Commodity Futures - Polycrystalline silicon futures main contract PS2601 on December 3 rose and is expected to oscillate strongly and widely on December 4. Lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate widely on December 4. Rebar futures main contract RB2605 on December 3 was flat and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Hot - rolled coil futures main contract HC2605 on December 3 rose slightly and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Iron ore futures main contract I2601 on December 3 fell slightly and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Coking coal futures main contract JM2605 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Glass futures main contract FG601 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Soda ash futures main contract SA601 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Crude oil futures main contract SC2601 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4. PVC futures main contract V2601 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4. Corn futures main contract C2601 on December 3 rose and is expected to oscillate strongly on December 4. Natural rubber futures main contract RU2601 on December 3 fell and is expected to oscillate weakly on December 4 [79][83][86]

望态度，且本周订单较少，采买量级较少，部分企业选择使用库存进行生产，部分企业进行少量刚需采买 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 。现货升水下跌至-150元/吨；LME库存小幅增加，现货升水上涨。技术面，放量增仓上影阳线，多空分歧 免责声明 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-12-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 316230 | 3860 1月-2月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -740 | -120 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 40750 | 1910 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 52057 | -998 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -815 | 685 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 3195 | 50 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 6359 | 130 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | ...

：预计不锈钢期价震荡调整，关注M30压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12425 | -40 01-02月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -95 | -15 -871 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -8837 | 204 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 96076 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 62157 | -180 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will experience a moderately strong oscillation, and it is recommended to monitor whether it can break through 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,865 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation was 3,062 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars [3]. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc was 201,973 lots, an increase of 6,148 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 15,926 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons; the LME inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 23,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 125 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was 186.85 US dollars/ton, down 64.13 US dollars [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 19,470 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production was 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume was 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory was 137,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 11.64%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 11.64%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.09%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.1%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 3, the State Council conducted its 17th special study on "deeply promoting people - centered new urbanization and focusing on building a new pattern of integrated urban - rural development" [3]. - The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined by 32,000 people, the largest drop since March 2023, with a sharp increase in unemployment among small businesses [3]. - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high, with an expected value of 52.0 [3]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - The upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates in China [3]. - Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition and a significant decline in processing fees at home and abroad, squeezing smelter profits and restricting production in some smelters [3]. - Overseas supply remains tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has remained low, imports are at a loss, and the export window is open, expected to turn into a net export situation to ease domestic supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots due to policy support [3]. 3.9 Technical Analysis - Open interest has increased along with rising prices, indicating a warming up of the bullish sentiment [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 4, 2025, the SM2603 contract was reported at 5,796, up 0.69%, with Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot at 5,520. The EU will ban Russian natural gas imports from autumn 2027. Fundamentally, inventory is rising fast, production is slightly falling, and inventory has risen for 9 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 87,000 tons, and iron - water demand is seasonally falling. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 582 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 380 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. - On December 4, 2025, the SF2603 contract was reported at 5,546, up 1.65%, with Ningxia silicon - iron spot at 5,250, up 50 yuan/ton. From January to November, consumer goods trade - in drove related sales over 2.5 trillion yuan. Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory continues to decline this period. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 270 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 565 yuan/ton. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term trend of bottom rebound and volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,724元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,446元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为634,165手，环比增加6,439手；SF期货合约持仓量为456,023手，环比减少26,448手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 35,230手，环比减少8,566手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 30,529手，环比减少9,615手 [2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为50元/吨，环比上涨2元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为38元/吨，环比上涨24元 [2]. - SM仓单为21,116张，环比增加5,265张；SF仓单为13,235张，环比增加1,980张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格均为5,520元/吨，环比无变化；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,550元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，环比上涨50元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,180元/吨，环比上涨30元；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨50元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,499元/吨，环比下跌16.75元；SF主力合约基差为 - 196元/吨，环比上涨52元；SM主力合约基差为 - 204元/吨，环比下跌2元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,250元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为870元/吨，环比下跌10元 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为438.3万吨，环比增加8.7万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为38.09%，环比下降1.04个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为33.41%，环比下降0.40个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为194,775吨，环比减少2,135吨；硅铁供应为107,200吨，环比减少1,100吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为368,000吨，环比增加5,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为71,830吨，环比减少1,220吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.84天，环比增加0.14天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.80天，环比增加0.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,727吨，环比增加320吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,660吨，环比增加117吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,199.7万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 国务院总理李强指出新型城镇化是扩大内需等的重要载体，“十五五”时期发展空间大 [2]. - 经合组织称G20经济体通胀率将从2025年的3.4%降至2027年的2.5%，多数经济体通胀将在2027年年中回归目标水平，OECD经济体公共债务率预计2027年达113%，美国国债规模已突破36万亿美元 [2]. - 欧盟将从2027年秋季开始全面禁止进口俄罗斯天然气 [2]. - 1 - 11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及超3.6亿人次，其中汽车以旧换新超1120万辆，家电以旧换新超12844万台 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - On December 4, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1184.0, up 1.94%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was 1390, equivalent to 1170 on the futures market. Coking coal is in a bottom - oscillating state with short - term multi - and short - side fluctuations. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. - On December 4, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1651.5, up 1.69%. The first - round price cut of coke in the spot market has been implemented. The demand for coke has decreased with the iron - making output down by 1.60 million tons this period, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） was 1091.50, up 21.00; J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） was 1651.50, up 27.00. JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） was 833449.00, down 14909.00; J期货合约持仓量（日，手） was 45213.00, down 1315.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 79594.00, up 17706.00; that of coke was - 387.00, down 670.00 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差（日，元/吨） was 92.50, down 1.50; J5 - 1月合约价差（日，元/吨） was 131.00, up 4.00. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, down 600.00; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1015.00, up 15.00; the price of Tangshan Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1830.00, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR, USD/wet ton) was 162.00, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1510.00, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00, down 40.00; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade 1 metallurgical coke was 1620.00, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00, unchanged. The J主力合约基差 （日，元/吨） was 178.50, down 27.00; the JM主力合约基差（日，元/吨） was 518.50, down 21.00 [2]. Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.10 million tons, up 0.50; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 321.40 million tons, up 16.10. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged; the monthly output of raw coal was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.40 million tons, down 0.90. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 465.00 million tons, up 8.10; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 247.20 million tons, down 6.20 [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1010.30 million tons, down 27.89; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.76 million tons, up 6.47. The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 801.30 million tons, up 4.22; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 625.52 million tons, up 3.18 [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 13.01 days, up 0.04; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.29 days, up 0.24 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.95%, up 1.24 [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 46.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00. The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 81.07%, down 1.10; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.96%, down 0.60. The monthly output of crude steel was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle. The OECD predicts that the inflation rate of G20 economies will gradually fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.5% in 2027, and the public debt ratio of OECD economies is expected to reach 113% in 2027 [2]. - The EU will completely ban the import of Russian natural gas from the autumn of 2027. From January to November, the trade - in of consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Among them, over 11.2 million cars and over 128.44 million household appliances were traded in [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The processing fee of copper concentrate in the raw material end still operates in the negative range, and the raw material supply remains tight, supporting the copper price cost. After the previous centralized maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. The impact of the consumption off - season is gradually emerging, and the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, leading to cautious downstream purchasing sentiment. The social inventory remains at a medium - low level but may accumulate due to the off - season. The year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The overall view is to trade with a light position in a fluctuating market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 90,980 yuan/ton, up 1770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,411 dollars/ton, down 76.50 dollars. The spread between adjacent months of the main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 234,570 lots, up 10,586 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 32,233 lots, up 2,696 lots. The LME copper inventory is 162,150 tons, up 350 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 32,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 91,245 yuan/ton, up 2,265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 91,175 yuan/ton, up 2,090 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 39.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 265 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 88.38 dollars/ton, up 19.20 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,350 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 80,050 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 60,990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 thousand pieces, down 194,236.10 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 12.50%, up 1.54%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.56%, down 2.65%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the current month is 17.96%, up 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, the gap between external debt repayment funds and new financing of developing countries reached 741 billion dollars, the highest in more than 50 years. In 2024, the total external debt of developing countries reached a record 8.9 trillion dollars, and the total interest payment reached a record 415.4 billion dollars. The ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, the lowest since March 2023, and the market expected an increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90%. The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of new - type urbanization, including promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, implementing urban renewal, and promoting the high - quality development of real estate. From January to November this year, the replacement of old consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6,584.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan. With the consumption of the fourth batch of 6.9 billion yuan national subsidy funds, more than 20 cities in China have suspended or adjusted the subsidy for car replacement. In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy market were 1.354 million, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.8% [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/12/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,060.00 | +120.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,615.00 | -21.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -60.00 | +30.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -68.00 | +12.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 244,457.00 | -4791.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 329,329.00 | -15058.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 48 ...