Core Viewpoint - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded by several international institutions, primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, which are seen as a significant risk to global economic stability [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Forecasts - The World Bank has reduced its 2025 global economic growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, affecting nearly 70% of economies [1][2]. - Developed economies are expected to grow by 1.2% this year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, with the U.S. growth forecast cut from 2.3% to 1.4% [2]. - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow by 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from previous estimates [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - The uncertainty from U.S. trade policies is identified as a major factor contributing to the global economic slowdown, with trade barriers and an unstable policy environment causing significant disruptions [4][5]. - The actual tariff rates imposed by the U.S. on imports have reached their highest levels since 1938, exacerbating economic headwinds [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) describes the U.S. tariff measures as a "major negative shock" to the global economy [5]. Group 3: Recommendations and Responses - The OECD suggests that countries should work together to mitigate uncertainty, emphasizing the need to avoid further trade fragmentation and barriers [6]. - The EU Commission indicates that easing trade tensions with the U.S. could support economic growth, alongside reforms to enhance competitiveness [6]. - Increased dialogue in trade could help alleviate uncertainties, with signs of adaptation in global supply chains [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years due to US tariff policies and economic uncertainty, and it is expected to remain weak over the next 12 months [1] - As of mid-June, the dollar index has dropped nearly 10% this year, with the CIO noting that harsher-than-expected US tariff measures have undermined confidence in the "American exceptionalism" narrative [1] - The report indicates that despite previous support from expansionary fiscal policies and tightening monetary policies, the situation is changing as US government spending is constrained and trade war uncertainties persist [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should adopt a strategy of "reduce, hedge, and diversify" to manage dollar risk exposure, predicting that the euro to dollar exchange rate could rise to 1.20 by June 2026 [1] - Technical analysis shows signs of stabilization for the dollar, with a potential bullish divergence indicated by the relative strength index (RSI) despite the dollar hitting new lows [2] - Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with current bearish sentiment towards the dollar reaching extreme levels not seen in the past 20 years, which could signal a market correction [2] Group 3 - The historical high correlation between the dollar and US Treasury yields has weakened, with the correlation coefficient dropping from 0.86 to 0.42 this year, suggesting potential for a dollar rebound if the relationship normalizes [2] - The dollar index is close to breaking a key downward trend line, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a significant improvement in the technical outlook [2] - If the dollar falls below the June 12 closing price of 97.92 and the RSI weakens again, expectations for a dollar rebound may be dashed, indicating a critical moment for market direction [3]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month, indicating a stable economic performance[16] - The demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown, aligning with prior assessments[16] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a recovery in consumer spending[21] - Policy-driven consumption, particularly in home appliances and cultural products, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 30.5% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales increase[25] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth remains at 3.7% year-on-year, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[32] - Manufacturing investment growth is at 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decrease, influenced by uncertainties in the market due to U.S. tariff policies[48] U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with expectations of a slight economic slowdown in Q2 to around 5.2%-5.3%[3] - The potential for a recovery in market sentiment is anticipated in Q3 if U.S. tariff policies stabilize or improve, possibly leading to new investment opportunities[3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market remains under pressure, with property sales declining by 4.41% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is showing signs of slowing[35] - The average sales price of commercial housing in May was 10,004.44 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating a need for price stabilization[35] Future Outlook - If U.S.-China trade negotiations yield positive results, there could be a restoration of market risk appetite, benefiting exports and overall economic recovery[57] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is critical for observing potential policies aimed at stabilizing growth amid external pressures[58]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month[11] - Demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown[11] - The supply side shows marginal improvement mainly due to a recovery in service production[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and benefiting from holiday effects and consumption policies[13] - Policy-driven consumption categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively[17] - The optimization of the tax refund policy for outbound tourists led to a 116% increase in tax refund applications in the first month of implementation[20] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May is 3.7%, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment growth in May was 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[36] - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market[26] External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to impact market sentiment and investment decisions[2] - If the 90-day tariff exemption ends without further negotiations, the tariff rate could rise to 54%, exacerbating external demand shocks[5] - The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could create new investment opportunities in the capital market[2]

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - The financing demand structure of the real economy is optimizing, with a marginal improvement expected. In May, new RMB loans under the social financing (社融) measure amounted to 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards bond financing and debt repayment funds replacing credit financing[12] - The issuance of special bonds accelerated in May, with a total issuance of 763.31 billion yuan, which may have contributed to the stability of financing demand in the real economy[13] - M1 growth rate in May was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a marginal improvement in economic activity[19] Group 2: Deposit and Loan Trends - In May, new RMB deposits reached 2.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 50 billion yuan and corporate deposits increasing by 382.4 billion yuan[17] - The growth of loans and deposits showed divergence, with new loans of 620 billion yuan in May, significantly lower than the increase in deposits, suggesting a weakening of the credit creation mechanism[17] - The M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rate gap narrowed to -5.6%, indicating an improvement in economic activity, although uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies remain high[20] Group 3: Macro Environment and Risks - The U.S. tariff policy continues to be a major concern affecting the macroeconomic environment, with no significant impact on inflation observed yet[5] - The global economic landscape shows signs of weak recovery in Europe, while Japan faces challenges due to high inflation, influenced by U.S. tariff policies[5] - Risks include potential escalation of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On June 16, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,584, up 2.35%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,400, down 30 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,292, up 2.04%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,190, up 50 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to low capacity utilization rates, but overall inventory remains high. The cost side shows an increase in imported manganese ore port inventory, and downstream pig iron production has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 430 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and - 170 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese; the Ningxia spot profit is - 430 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and - 400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. The market should be treated as oscillating [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,584 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,292 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. - SM期货合约持仓量 was 617,093 hands, down 30,190 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 432,533 hands, down 3,514 hands. - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 26,834 hands, down 1,165 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 24,273 hands, down 2,222 hands. - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 4 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. - SM仓单 was 96,168 sheets, down 1,783 sheets; SF仓单 was 15,193 sheets, down 35 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,060 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - The manganese - silicon index average was 5,423 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 102 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The SM主力合约基差 was - 184 yuan/ton, down 138 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Manganese ore port inventory was 440.10 million tons, up 19.80 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise capacity utilization rate was 35.30%, up 0.27%; the silicon - iron enterprise capacity utilization rate was 31.35%, down 1.43%. - Manganese - silicon supply was 173,390 tons, up 1,505 tons; silicon - iron supply was 95,100 tons, down 2,200 tons. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; silicon - iron manufacturers' inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 122,153 tons, down 3,640 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,607.80 tons, down 716.90 tons. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07%. - The monthly crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 0.531 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On June 13, US President Trump approved Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. - Trump said Iran and Israel should reach an agreement and was willing to accept Putin as a mediator. - Xu Changming said that the demand for domestic passenger cars showed different stage - type characteristics before and after 2023, with consumption upgrading before 2023 and downgrading in 2024. The sales of models above 300,000 yuan had negative growth in the past two years, while the sales of models below 100,000 yuan increased by 51% in the first five months of this year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On June 16, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,292, up 2.04%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,190, up 50 yuan/ton. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased sharply, and factors such as the US tariff policy, fiscal gap, and the weakening of the US dollar and US debt credit have pushed up the gold price. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the cost support has weakened due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia, and the steel demand expectation is still weak. - On June 16, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5,584, up 2.35%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,400, down 30 yuan/ton. At the end of May, the broad - money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year - on - year; the narrow - money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year - on - year. Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to low capacity utilization rates, but overall inventory remains high. The cost side shows an increase in imported manganese ore port inventory, and downstream pig iron production has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and rebounded, improving the pessimistic sentiment. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and tender prices continue to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as oscillating [2].

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: June 16, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, with the steel industry chain in decline and some sectors like asphalt, semi - steel tires, and PTA seeing an uptick. The real estate market is experiencing a marginal decline, and price trends are also diverse. Shipping indices are at relatively high levels. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [2][31] Summary by Directory Production - In the week of June 13, the utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 10.89 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 0.2 pct, PX operating rate decreased by 0.3 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 0.26 pct, full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.23 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 4.12 pct [3][9][10] Demand - In the week of June 8, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area declined, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. Movie box office decreased by 110 million yuan compared to the previous week. Automobile manufacturers' daily average retail sales decreased by 52,500 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 117,800 vehicles. In the week of June 13, the SCFI dropped by 6.79%, CCFI rose by 7.63%, and BDI increased significantly by 20.51% [3][13][15][18] Prices - In the week of June 13, Brent crude oil prices rose by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, coking coal futures prices dropped by 0.71% to 773.5 yuan per ton, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.24%, + 2.10%, - 1.35% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 0.70%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.98%, - 3.58%, - 0.46%, - 0.13% respectively compared to the previous week [3][21][22][24] Logistics - In the week of June 14, subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, domestic flight volume increased while international flight volume decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities rebounded. Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 261,400 person - times with a weekly change of 2.82%, Shanghai's increased by 795,700 person - times with a weekly change of 8.67%. Domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 58 flights with a weekly change of 0.47%, international flight volume decreased by 69.43 flights with a weekly change of - 3.78%, and the first - tier city peak congestion index increased by 0.14 with a weekly change of 9.05% [4][26][28] Summary - Steel production declined, and crude oil prices increased significantly. High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, a marginal decline in the real estate market, diverse price trends, and relatively high shipping indices. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [31]

Group 1 - The upcoming Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election is seen as a precursor to the national Diet's House of Councillors election, with voting scheduled for June 22 [2][4] - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is under scrutiny to maintain its seats in the Tokyo Assembly, as no party holds an absolute majority [4] - Recent polls indicate a rise in support for Abe, with one poll showing a 6% increase to 39% and another showing a 7% increase to 34%, up from around 20% previously [4] Group 2 - Approximately 300 candidates are contesting in the Tokyo Assembly election, marking the highest number in over 30 years [4] - The main issues in the election include rising prices, political scandals, and demographic challenges such as aging and declining birth rates [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose by 3.5% year-on-year in April, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2% [6] Group 3 - Abe has pledged to increase nominal GDP to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040 and aims for a 50% increase in average wages, requiring an annual growth rate of approximately 2.74% [8] - The LDP is considering cash handouts to citizens to alleviate the impact of rising prices [9] - The price of rice in Japan has doubled compared to the previous year, with the average price for a 5 kg bag reaching 4,223 yen [9] Group 4 - Japan's government is facing pressure from U.S. tariffs, with a significant decline in business confidence reported among large enterprises [11] - The confidence index for large companies dropped from 2.0 to -1.9 in the second quarter, with the manufacturing sector particularly affected [11] - The steel industry confidence index fell to -29.1, while the automotive sector index was at -16.1, indicating severe challenges [11]

香港金管局提到，随着美国宣布施加远超市场预期的对等关税，全球经济增长放缓的风险上升。全球金 融市场表现波动，但继续畅顺运作，无迹象显示存在广泛的融资压力。尽管延迟实施对等关税为普遍面 对较高税率的出口依赖型亚洲经济体带来一定程度的缓解，但日后会实施关税的可能性仍对经济增长构 成重大阻力。 在4月初，面对美国进一步加征关税，长仓美元的外汇交易因避险情绪而平仓，加上南向资金持续流 入，港元进一步转强。港元银行同业拆息继续跟随美元利率走势，较短期的拆息同时亦受本地供求情况 影响。短期香港银行同业拆息在接近年底时一度收紧，但其后随着资金需求减退而回软。兑换保证于报 告期内没有被触发，总结余维持稳定，约为450亿港元；贴现窗的使用情况未见异常。整体而言，港元 外汇及银行同业市场交易继续畅顺有序。 香港金管局表示，随着美国施加对等关税，香港经济的增长前景面对的下行风险有所加剧。然而，内地 促进经济增长政策及人工智能领域取得的进展、市场对美国降息的预期，以及入境旅游业的持续复苏等 多项因素在一定程度上有助减轻相关影响。另一方面，随着港府调整楼价较低物业的印花税，住宅物业 市场成交量在3月有所增加，但市场气氛在4月因全球金融 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The flat inflation data in the US may be seen by the Trump administration as a favorable condition to maintain the tariff policy, but due to the clear role of tariffs in the fiscal plan, the Trump administration is unlikely to significantly increase tariffs easily [2][13] - The flat consumption data is related to the flat employment growth, the decline in consumer confidence, and the Fed's stance on combating inflation [2][7] - If tariffs cannot be passed on to prices, it will eventually undermine importer confidence, making the problem of commodity shortages more obvious and increasing price pressure [2] Summary by Related Content Inflation Data Analysis - The overall CPI data in the US in May was flat, with stable year - on - year changes in core, energy, and food CPI. Prices remained stable despite new tariffs in April and May, and the ability of importers to pass on tariffs to consumers is uncertain [2][4] - The housing price index was the main driver of the CPI increase in May, while the energy price index decreased month - on - month [3] Consumption and Employment Situation - Consumption data is affected by employment growth, consumer confidence, and the Fed's anti - inflation stance. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment in the US has been steadily declining since this year, and GDP and consumer spending growth may return to the non - farm employment growth rate [2][7] - The consumer confidence index in April and May was at the fourth - lowest point on record. Although consumer confidence decline is related to expected inflation, inflation expectations may lead to a decrease in consumer spending [9] Tariff Policy and Its Impact - The Trump administration is unlikely to revoke or reduce tariffs easily, nor will it significantly increase tariffs easily, as tariffs are expected to cut the deficit by $2.8 trillion in the next 10 years [2][13] - If tariffs cannot be passed on to prices, it will affect importer confidence, and if energy prices rebound, price pressure in the US may increase [2][12]