目前处于中报披露期，程小勇表示，从历史经验看，部分先行指标，如消费者信心指数、投资者信心指 数、制造业PMI等会提前让投资者对业绩改善进行预判，股市和期指会提前发动行情。因此，中报披露 如果如预期出现业绩改善，涨势会持续，这是一个确认过程，但股指进一步冲高需更多利好支撑。如果 中报显示业绩改善不及预期，相应板块会有调整压力。他认为，本轮上涨不仅有业绩改善预期的推动， 还有政策的驱动，因此后续A股和期指大概率保持涨势。 在广州金控期货研究所副总经理程小勇看来，A股市场向上的驱动因素，主要在于政策利好和业绩改善 两个方面。他认为，政策利好包括政策推动高成长性科技企业参与并购重组；消费品以旧换新政策持续 显效，新消费市场在消费行为重构和技术赋能下潜力巨大，相关概念股持续活跃；城市更新等政策加大 新型城镇化重点领域的投入，利好地产和建材；政策引导长期资金入市，财政部近日印发《关于引导保 险资金长期稳健投资进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知》，非银金融继续发力。从业绩改 善角度看，上半年"两新"政策有利于消费板块业绩改善。 "当前，货币政策提供了充裕的流动性，利率持续走低带来'资产荒'，保险、证券、基金和外资等 ...

廖市无双：轻舟已过 3500，后市可为空间几何？ 20250613 摘要 市场短期阻力与长期潜力：上证指数在 3,555 点附近面临技术阻力，但 多头均线排列和强劲的市场情绪预示着未来仍有上行潜力，或在四季度 前挑战 3,674 点。 筹码结构分析：天朗 50 筹码结构显示，筹码密集区位于 3,350 点附近， 当前点位偏离平均成本，短期存在调整压力，但密集筹码支撑市场迅速 反弹。 板块轮动与风格变化：金融与科技板块齐飞，顺周期板块如房地产和基 建开始走强。金融和成长风格表现突出，消费和稳定风格出现触底迹象， 主题投资成为超额收益的关键。 银行板块投资逻辑：银行板块受益于资产荒和稳定资金流入，周期性上 涨仍有空间，建议逢低配置，但需警惕估值过高或快速上涨的情况。 券商板块投资策略：券商板块反弹显著，但部分个股仍有上涨空间。建 议进行高低切换，将涨幅较大的换成前期涨幅较小的券商股票，优化投 资组合。 Q&A 当前市场走势如何，未来可能会出现哪些变化？ 自 6 月 24 日市场选择向上以来，至 7 月 11 日市场表现强劲。我们在 6 月 24 日翻多，并预测市场短期内会上涨。实际情况显示，市场在 7 月 11 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - A-share market in China Core Points and Arguments 1. Recent policy measures have exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment, with more policies anticipated before the Politburo meeting to support the market [1][3] 2. Concerns over tariffs have eased as the U.S. has not imposed tariffs on key countries, and a short-term agreement in U.S.-China tariff negotiations is likely [1][3] 3. There is a high expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to increased liquidity in China, positively impacting the market [1][3] 4. Low-valuation financial blue chips (banks, insurance) remain favored by large institutional investors, while non-bank sectors related to digital currency (brokerage firms) benefit from U.S.-China financial competition and support for digital currencies in Shanghai [1][4] 5. Economic data for June indicates weak domestic demand, with a significant drop in PPI by 3.6%, reflecting pressure on the economic fundamentals [1][5] 6. The real estate sector shows a widening year-on-year decline in weekly sales, with both prices and sales decreasing, contributing to downward pressure on the economy [1][5] 7. The upcoming mid-year report period may bring market pressure as companies with declining performance are required to disclose results, likely maintaining a volatile market trend [1][7] 8. Conditions for sustained market growth during the mid-year report period include positive policies, improved fundamentals, and relatively low valuations [1][8] 9. This year, the economic data is weak, and while mid-year profit growth may improve compared to Q1, overall economic and profit recovery is sluggish, making sustained growth unlikely [1][10] 10. Industries likely to perform well during the mid-year report period include those supported by policies and high prosperity, such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and value sectors like steel and building materials [1][11] 11. The TMT sector typically shows weak performance in July but may improve in August; however, this year, the sector may struggle due to poor mid-year results [1][12] 12. In the current macro environment, both growth and value styles are balanced, with low valuations being a key focus; industries like automotive, media communication, and pharmaceuticals are highlighted [1][13] 13. Industries that may benefit from U.S. tariffs on certain countries include electronics, machinery, textiles, chemicals, and agriculture [1][15] 14. Recommended sectors for investors include high valuation and profit growth potential in cyclical and growth industries, such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and banking [1][16] 15. Specific areas within the technology growth sector to watch include gaming in media, digital currency in computing, consumer electronics in electronics, and computing power in communication [1][17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall market is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upward space due to ongoing fundamental challenges [1][5][7] - Historical data indicates that since 2010, there have been nine years of structural market trends during mid-year reports, with varying outcomes based on external events [1][8][10]

智通财经7月14日电，中信建投研报指出，流动性充裕叠加市场情绪升温，推动A股上台阶。外部环境 也较为有利，积极情绪或蔓延至A股。展望后市，我们继续维持战略乐观判断，目前海内外宏观环境、 市场风险偏好和新赛道结构性景气均出现积极信号，预计市场有望进一步"上台阶"。短期来看，在连续 3周市场大涨后，A股阶段性回调压力正在上升，但市场整体系统性风险不大，股权风险溢价指标显示 目前仍然处在机会水平附近。因此依然看好后市行情，整体维持偏高仓位，若短期市场出现调整则是布 局良机。 中信建投："上台阶"行情有望延续 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of new quantitative regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has led to increased volatility in the A-share market, with rapid shifts in market hotspots and a lack of sustained upward trends [1] - The recent market behavior shows that most hot stocks experience a quick rise followed by a decline, indicating a challenging environment for investors trying to capitalize on short-term movements [1] Group 2 - A significant positive development for the STAR Market is the introduction of the "STAR Growth Tier," allowing 32 unprofitable companies to enter this new tier, which may enhance their growth prospects [3] - The new pre-review mechanism aims to mitigate the negative impact of listing plans on the companies' operations, potentially benefiting the overall market sentiment towards the STAR Market [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index is showing signs of breaking through last year's high of 3674 points, with recent trading patterns indicating a potential upward trend [5] - The recent trading session saw a long upper shadow on the candlestick chart, which, despite a last-minute pullback, does not alter the overall positive outlook for the index [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.8%, indicating a stable upward trend in the market [7] - The trading volume reached 1.7 trillion yuan, marking a recent high, and the market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for future trading [7]

Core Viewpoint - The first half-year reports for 2025 are set to be released, with a significant number of companies expected to show positive performance, indicating a potential "performance wave" in the A-share market [1]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - China Shenhua expects a net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 8.6% to 15.7% [1]. - Li Min Co. anticipates a net profit increase of over 700% due to strong market demand for its main products [1]. - Huazhong Securities forecasts a 44.94% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1]. - Twelve companies, including Huayin Power and North Rare Earth, are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 1000% [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Performance Insights - A total of 510 listed companies have disclosed their performance forecasts, with 301 companies reporting positive results, accounting for approximately 60% [4]. - The hardware equipment, chemical, and machinery industries have the highest number of companies reporting positive forecasts, with 41, 32, and 22 companies respectively [4]. - The sectors of food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and automotive parts are also showing strong performance expectations [4]. Group 3: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The first company to release its mid-year report will be Zhongyan Chemical on July 15, 2025 [2]. - Other notable companies scheduled to release their reports include Shentong Technology on July 19 and Zhimin Da on July 25 [2]. Group 4: Market Trends and Expectations - The market is witnessing a recovery in investment sentiment, with expectations of structural opportunities in CXO and research service-related stocks as mid-year reports are released [14]. - The sectors expected to perform well in Q2 include upstream industrial metals, midstream wind power, and downstream consumer goods [13].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in bank stocks is driven by a combination of policy benefits and significant institutional capital allocation, leading to a remarkable performance that outpaces other sectors, including technology [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Bank Index has increased over 35% in the past year, outperforming the Nasdaq Index, and has become one of the leading indices in the global capital market [1][2]. - As of July 10, 2023, the Shenwan Bank Index has risen 18.38% since 2025, ranking first among 31 primary industries, with an excess return of over 14 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 Index [1][2]. - Individual bank stocks have shown extreme differentiation, with Qingdao Bank leading the A-share banking sector with a rise of over 38% this year [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investors are increasingly shifting their focus from technology stocks to bank stocks, with some expressing a sense of relief after switching investments [2][3]. - There is a notable shift in the perception of value investing among retail and private equity investors, with many now favoring bank stocks over previously popular sectors [2][3]. Group 3: Fundamental and Financial Drivers - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to a "double engine" of fundamental logic and financial support, with high dividend yields attracting long-term capital [4][5]. - Approximately half of the listed banks have dividend yields exceeding 3%, significantly higher than one-year fixed deposit rates and ten-year government bond yields, creating a "certainty premium" [4]. - Predictions indicate potential further reductions in LPR and reserve requirement ratios, which would enhance the appeal of bank stocks due to their high dividend characteristics [4][5]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Dynamics - Insurance capital has significantly increased its holdings in bank stocks, with over 278 billion shares valued at more than 260 billion yuan, making it the largest sector for insurance investments [5][6]. - Passive funds have also contributed to the rise of bank stocks, with net inflows exceeding 500 billion yuan into funds related to the CSI 300 Index in 2024, of which bank stocks accounted for about 15.7% [5][6]. - Active equity funds still have room to increase their holdings in bank stocks, with current allocations at 3.75% [6]. Group 5: Market Structure and Future Outlook - The current structure of bank stock holdings is characterized by a rare combination of long-term funds and institutional dominance, differing from previous market trends [6][7]. - The market is experiencing a self-reinforcing mechanism driven by investor anxiety and quantitative strategies, which may lead to volatility in bank stock prices [6][8]. - Despite the current enthusiasm, some investors are preparing for potential short-term fluctuations, indicating a cautious outlook on the sustainability of the bank stock rally [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of public funds in the second quarter of 2025, with a focus on the innovative drug sector and the significant increase in short-term bond fund shares [1][4] - The first report from the outstanding fund manager Liang Furui shows a cumulative net value growth rate of 75.18% for the Changcheng Pharmaceutical Industry Select Fund, making it the second-best performing equity fund in the first half of the year [2] - Liang Furui's report indicates that the innovative drug development will focus on overseas licensing and domestic sales expansion in the third quarter, with a continued emphasis on clinical data, pipeline licensing, and sales growth [3] Group 2 - Several short-term bond funds have seen a significant increase in shares during the second quarter, with the Debang Short Bond Fund's total shares rising to 5.482 billion, an increase of over 30 billion shares, representing a growth of over 125% [4] - The fund managers of Dongfanghong Yixin Pure Bond and Dongfanghong Short Bond report that the next phase will focus on benefiting from internal liquidity easing, with a core strategy of investment-grade leverage and duration trading [4][5] - The Debang Short Bond Fund managers express concerns about external demand pressures and the potential slowdown of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, while maintaining a positive outlook for the bond market in the third quarter [5]

【本文来自持牌证券机构，不代表平台观点，请独立判断和决策】 本周各家券商策略关注的焦点在于指数行情的持续性与中报业绩预增方向。 华西策略李立峰团队称，本轮"623"启动的行情与去年"924"行情不同的是，当前A股市场估值已从底部区域回到历史中位数上 方，全A平均股价与3月份高点接近，因此指数进一步冲高还需成交量的配合，短期市场或存在盘整需求；与"924"行情的相同点 在于，政策层对支持资本市场的决心与力度没有改变，"平准基金"等中长期资金入市的推动下，即使行情"回踩"，其幅度或也有 限，A股在"稳中有涨"中结构性机会颇多。 信达策略樊继拓团队则认为，后续行情有较大的概率发展为类似2014年下半年的全面牛市。其观点如下： 对比各类利率，能够看到，当下的10年期国债利率只有2014年的一半左右，而且过去2年下降的速度幅度也不弱于 2014年。资产荒的环境下，已经对市场产生影响的是保险资金，后续随时可能会加强的是居民资金。 更多券商策略观点如下： | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 结论 券商/分析师 | | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 本轮"623"启 ...

债 券 策 略 相关研究 《关税预期反复下的核心矛盾梳理 与策略应对——近期市场反馈及思 考 3》 2025/05/28 《"低利率、低利差、高波动"环境 下的应对——近期市场反馈及思 考》 2025/03/28 《纠结、分歧与多空之辩——近期 市场反馈及思考》 2025/02/19 ——近期市场反馈及思考 4 ⚫ 如何看待债券市场逻辑的变迁？ 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A0230525040001 zhangjy@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsres ...