• 中国重汽一季度销量 7.4 万辆，国内市场表现良好，出口 3.3 万辆同比下 降，主要受俄罗斯市场影响，但非洲、东南亚、中东、南美等地保持增长。 • 国家以旧换新政策逐步落地，预计将积极拉动国内重卡需求，上海、四川 等省份已开始实施，补贴对销量有一定程度的促进作用。 • 预计二季度商用车市场销量同比增长率可能达到两位数，主要受益于国内 需求上升，特别是新能源需求增加。 • 新能源商用车销量显著增长，中国重汽市场份额达 14%，位居行业前三， 但整个新能源商用车行业目前仍处于亏损状态。 • 公司采取采购降本、设计降本和工艺降本等措施以改善经营状况，并坚持 全年 14 万台的出口目标，尽管俄罗斯市场下滑超预期。 • 俄罗斯市场库存较高，中国品牌库存约 4 万台，中国重汽库存约六七千台， 预计需要四到五个月消化，且受政府行政手段影响，销量下滑。 • 国内库存稳定，全行业库存约 17.5 万辆，公司库存约 5 万辆，全年预期 销量为 65 万到 70 万辆，天然气车辆渗透率约 37-38%，以旧换新政策有 望推动其发展。 Q&A 商用车板块的市场行情及未来趋势如何？ 商用车板块的市场行情是以年维度的趋势进行分析。 ...

Core Insights - The Labor Day holiday consumption showed robust growth despite high base effects, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors [1][10] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a year-on-year sales increase of 6.3%, up from 4.1% during the Spring Festival holiday, with tourism revenue also exceeding pre-pandemic levels [1][4] Consumption Trends by Category - Home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment saw significant sales growth of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively, driven by the "old for new" policy [2][11] - The catering sector experienced an 8.7% increase, benefiting from high consumer willingness to spend on experiential dining [2] - Jewelry sales improved due to lower base effects and fluctuating gold prices, with some brands reporting a shift from negative to positive growth [8] Regional Consumption Insights - Consumption growth was balanced across different city tiers, with key tourist cities performing strongly and lower-tier cities benefiting from increased foot traffic [3][9] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai outperformed the national average in consumption growth, supported by domestic tourism and favorable visa policies for inbound travelers [3][9] Tourism and Travel Data - Domestic tourism revenue grew by 8%, with total visitor numbers increasing by 6.4%, indicating a recovery to 123% of pre-pandemic levels [4][11] - Outbound travel saw a robust year-on-year growth of 21%, with Hong Kong and Macau leading the increase in inbound tourism [4] Industry Performance Highlights - The sports and leisure retail sector reported a 15% increase in sales, attributed to rising outdoor activities and favorable weather conditions [5] - The high-end liquor market faced challenges, with increased discounting in the mid-to-high price segments due to cautious consumer spending [6] - The restaurant sector showed varied performance, with some brands like Nayuki's Tea achieving significant growth in both dine-in and delivery sales [7] Box Office and Entertainment - The box office revenue during the holiday period fell sharply by 51% to CNY 747 million, primarily due to a lack of blockbuster films [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Dongpeng Holdings (003012) reported stable operating quality in Q1 2025 despite industry pressures, with revenue of 994 million yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, while net profit decreased due to lower product prices and seasonal factors [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 994 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1.74% year-on-year, and a net loss of approximately 30.45 million yuan, down 164.42% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin stood at 23.54%, with total expenses decreasing by 11.27% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company reported a debt ratio of 33.81% and investment income of 1.83 million yuan [6]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on channel optimization and high-margin business development, responding to the national home decoration consumption policy, which has led to a 10.19% year-on-year increase in retail revenue from tiles [2][5]. - Dongpeng is expanding its retail presence, adding 188 new stores in 2024, and launching new product lines to enhance consumer experience [2][3]. Industry Outlook - The ceramic tile industry is expected to face ongoing market consolidation, with a projected production of 5.91 billion square meters in 2024, and a decrease in the number of large-scale enterprises [3][4]. - The industry is shifting towards high-quality development, focusing on high-end, intelligent, and green products, driven by policies supporting consumption upgrades [3][4]. Future Growth Drivers - The company aims to achieve growth through innovation, lean operations, digital empowerment, and green development strategies [4][5]. - Dongpeng is enhancing its product structure and high-end product layout, including strategic partnerships with luxury brands and the acquisition of high-end product lines [5].

Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.469 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%, and a net profit of 328 million yuan, down 54.41% year-on-year [1] - The company acknowledged a continued weakening in demand within the ceramic tile industry, with an oversupply issue becoming prominent, leading to a shift from incremental competition to stock competition [1] - The company implemented measures such as channel optimization, lean operations across the entire value chain, and precise expense control to steadily improve operational quality [1][2] Strategic Initiatives - The company launched the DPICASA high-end brand strategy and formed deep strategic partnerships with three top Italian luxury brands, while also upgrading the IW brand to create a designer material aesthetic library [2] - The company acquired Lishi Rock Board to expand into the high-end rock board market [2] - The unit manufacturing cost of the company's tile products was reduced by 3.1 percentage points to cope with market downturn pressures [2] Market Response and Future Outlook - The company reported a 10.19% year-on-year increase in revenue from its large retail tile business in Q1 2025, driven by the national home decoration subsidy policy and product innovation [2][3] - The company noted that the first quarter is traditionally a low season, and the impact of current fluctuations on the overall annual performance is manageable [2] - The company is responding to the national home decoration subsidy policy by launching new products and enhancing in-store experiences through nationwide initiatives [3] - The ceramic tile industry is expected to face challenges from market demand, dual carbon energy consumption policies, and cross-industry competition, while opportunities may arise from the optimization of supply-side factors and policies supporting the replacement of old consumer goods [3]

政策加力、企业得利、消费者受益，以旧换新政策激活市场的"一池春水"。如何充分释放政策效能，怎 样更好激发消费新需求？本期大家谈选编3篇来稿，与读者朋友共同探讨。 ——编 者 换新更是"焕新" 王高哲 趁着有真金白银的补贴，换了不少大件家电。新旧更替，也照见生活之变、观念之新。 生活品质焕新了。当下，绿色化、智能化已成家电主流趋势。智能唤醒、智能安防、智能烹饪……一个 手机终端就可以实现远程遥控、智能感知，把居家生活安排得明明白白。从过去的家电普及到如今的智 能升级，以旧换新不是简单的新旧替代，而是实实在在以高质量产品助力美好生活。 消费观念更新了。经历过物资匮乏时代，不少老一辈崇尚能修不换，家里"超期服役"的家电不少。而 今，人们消费算经济账，也算体验账，新产品能耗更低、性能更优，长远看其实同样划算。 品牌认知也刷新了。过去不少人倾向于买进口货，如今走进家电商城，国产品牌门店人潮涌动。支持国 货，归根结底源于对产品品质的信任、品牌的认可。激光电视、超级筒洗衣机……产品自强助长消费信 心，也见证中国制造向中国创造的跃迁。 新与旧之间，升级的是品质，迭代的是观念。一个个家庭的新变化，让我们真切感受到高质量发展的强 ...

1至3月份，家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额增长19.3%，自上年9月份以来保持两位数增长。消费品 以旧换新政策有力促进了产业发展和绿色转型，家用电器和音像器材类中的高能效等级家电和智能家电 销售连续保持高速增长态势，家电市场呈现明显的消费升级趋势。 本报北京5月6日电 （记者韩鑫）记者从中国轻工业联合会获悉：一季度，在系列扩内需、促消费政策 支持下，规模以上轻工企业实现营收5.4万亿元、同比增长4.8%，实现利润超3000亿元、同比增长 1.4%，轻工业经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进。 生产回升向好。一季度，规模以上轻工业增加值同比增长7.3%，增速较去年末加快2.2个百分点。得益 于消费品以旧换新政策，3月份，电动自行车、洗衣机、空调等产品产量实现两位数增长。 投资较快增长。轻工行业发展信心持续增强，一季度，轻工主要行业投资增速均保持两位数增长，投资 增速高于制造业投资增速。 今年以来，消费品以旧换新支持资金规模翻番、商品种类扩围。"随着政策效应持续向供给端传导，轻 工相关产业规模不断扩大，国内市场持续回暖，带动轻工业经济增长。"中国轻工业联合会会长张崇和 表示。 家具、家装厨卫相关行业市场规模迎来快速增长。在 ...

国家税务总局最新增值税发票数据显示，"五一"假期消费需求旺盛，增势良好。全国消费相关行业销售 收入同比增长15.2%。其中，在"以旧换新"政策带动下，家用电器和音像器材销售收入同比增长 167.5%，智能手机等消费电子产品纳入购新补贴范围，通信器材销售收入同比增长118%，家具销售收 入同比增长1.7倍。 ...

Core Insights - The sales revenue of consumption-related industries during the May Day holiday increased by 15.2% year-on-year, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and strong demand in various sectors [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Electronics and Appliances - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted the consumption of home appliances and communication devices, with sales revenue for household appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 167.5% year-on-year [1] - Retail sales of daily household appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines grew by 169.8%, while sales of televisions increased by 153.1% [1] - Sales revenue for communication devices rose by 118%, as smart phones and other consumer electronics were included in the subsidy program [1] Group 2: Home Goods and Jewelry - Sales of home goods showed strong growth, with furniture sales increasing by 170%, sanitary ware by 68.7%, kitchenware by 30.1%, and lighting by 15.7% [2] - The rising gold prices contributed to a 14.4% increase in jewelry sales revenue [2] Group 3: Retail Sales Channels - Overall retail sales revenue increased by 28.7% year-on-year, indicating a rise in consumer spending across various platforms [2] - Offline department store sales grew by 34.5%, while supermarket sales increased by 8.9%, and online retail sales surged by 34.7% [2] Group 4: Tourism and Experience Services - There was a notable increase in demand for experiential tourism services, with sales revenue for tourism and entertainment services rising by 6.1% [2] - Revenue from scenic spots increased by 42.7%, leisure sightseeing services by 65.6%, and park services by 11.1% [2] - The popularity of unique accommodations and cultural performances led to a 17.9% increase in revenue from homestay services and a 31.1% increase in revenue from artistic performances [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，25Q1 公司实现营业收入 73.6 亿元，同增 23.8%， 归母净利润 1.8 亿元，同增 16.9%，扣非归母净利润 1.7 亿元，同减 6.2%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 28,601 | 31,885 | 34,730 | 37,530 | | 同比增速(%) | 18.0% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 699 | 803 | 906 | 1,004 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.6% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 10.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.88 | 0.97 | | 市盈率(倍) | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 ...

多个消费品制造细分行业利润端有所改善 [Table_ReportType] ——轻工制造行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] 轻工业绩预告表现平淡，预盈率为 53% 1-9 月消费品制造业保持良好增长，家具行 业利润同比涨幅扩大 1-7 月消费品制造业利润保持良好增长 [Table_Authors] 分析师: 李滢 电话： 15521202580 投资要点： ⚫ 3 月规模以上工业企业利润有所改善。从利润端来看，2025 年 1-3 月 份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 15,093.6 亿元，同比+0.8%， 相比 1-2 月提升 1.1 个 pct，工业企业利润延续恢复态势。其中，3 月 份规模以上工业企业利润同比+2.6%，较 1-2 月提升 2.9 个 pct，企业 当月利润有所改善。从收入端来看，2025 年 1-3 月份，全国规模以上 工业企业实现营业收入 321,395.9 亿元，同比+3.4%，较 1-2 月提升 0.6 个 pct。其中，3 月份规模以上工业企业营收同比+4.2%，较 1-2 月提升 1.4 个 pct。 ⚫ 多个消费品制造细分行业利润跌幅收窄。从消费品制造业 ...