Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 marks a significant turning point in China's economic history, transitioning from "scale dividends" to a focus on "system security and quality efficiency revolution" as the old trade and growth logic fails [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Transition - The "Fifteen Five" plan signifies a shift in China's economic strategy, with a complex non-linear system emerging that renders traditional GDP growth and monetary policy approaches ineffective [2][3]. - Historical patterns show that every five-year plan corresponds with a restructuring of wealth logic, indicating the importance of understanding policy language to navigate economic changes [1][11]. Group 2: Policy Interpretation - The upcoming "Fifteen Five" plan presents unprecedented complexities in macroeconomic policy, making it challenging to translate administrative language into actionable asset allocation strategies [3][12]. - The course led by Dr. Xiong Yuan aims to decode the "Fifteen Five" plan's core keywords, distinguishing between soft guidance and hard constraints, which is crucial for investors [14][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors must prepare for the new economic environment by understanding the implications of central government leverage and the boundaries of fiscal policy post-2026 [12][15]. - The course will cover how to utilize forward-looking indicators like PMI and PPI to anticipate policy shifts and manage the time lag between policy announcements and market reactions [12][15].

报告日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 公募基金销售新规正式落地 美军突袭加拉加斯，抓捕马杜罗夫妇并押往美国，美方宣布将暂时"管理"委内 瑞拉并深度介入石油产业。美国当周初请失业金低于预期，强化经济韧性，削弱 1 月降息概率，推升长端收益率，特朗普明确将于 1 月择时公布鲍威尔继任人选， 称已有心仪人选且未改变。国内 2 月官方制造业 PMI 为 50.1%，升至扩张区间， 经济景气水平总体回升。公募基金销售新规正式落地，放宽了债基赎回费，个人 持有债基超过 7 日、机构持有债基超过 30 日可免收赎回费，缓解市场对债基流 动性、交易属性弱化的担忧。 重点品种：原油、国债 原油： 节日期间油价小幅震荡回落。但收盘期间，美国入侵委内瑞拉对其发动 空袭，同时宣称已经抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其带离委内瑞拉。短期委内 瑞拉将陷入内乱，袭击发生前其石油出口已经受到美国封锁压制，袭击发生后在 美国代理人上台前预计将持续受到更大影响。短期油价受此影响偏多。中期影响 在于此前委内瑞拉石油生产主要依赖中国和俄罗斯，美国发动军事打击后预计开 始清场，产量将在一定时间内受到影响。长期而言，关注美 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，1月4日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了365亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量365亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量365亿元。Wind数据显示，当日4701亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼4336亿元。本周央行公开市场 | | | 将有13236亿元逆回购到期，其中，周一至周三分别到期4823亿元、3125亿元、5288亿元。此外，周四还将有11000亿 | | | 元买断式逆回购到期，周五将有600亿元国库现金定存到期。 | | | 2、国务院印发《固体废物综合治理行动计划》提出，到2030年，大宗固体废弃物年综合利用量达到45亿吨，主要再生 资源年循环利用量达到5.1亿吨。依法依规淘汰落后产能。原则上不再批准建设无自建矿山、无配套尾矿利用处置设施 | | | 的选矿项目。聚焦工业、城镇、农林等主要产废领域，全链条综合治理。 | | 宏观 | 3、文化和旅游部发布数据显示，2026年元旦假期，全国国内出游1.42亿人次，国内出游总花费847.89亿元。冬季特色 | | 消息 | 文旅产品供给丰富，冰雪游、避寒游、跨年游人气旺盛。 | | | ...

Financial Condition Index Overview - The average daily index of China's financial conditions from December 22 to December 26, 2025, was -2.25, remaining stable compared to the previous week. The index has decreased by 0.87 over the year [1][4][28] - The components of the index indicate a loose monetary and stock market, while the bond market shows signs of tightening. The central bank maintained stable monetary supply, and market liquidity was orderly with low interest rates [1][4][28] Monetary Market - The interbank market maintained stable liquidity, with an average pledged repo transaction volume of 8.48 trillion yuan, consistent with the previous week. However, there was a noticeable decline on December 26, dropping from 8.54 trillion yuan to 7.89 trillion yuan [6][30] - Major money market rates saw an increase, with overnight repo rates averaging 1.35% and 1.26%, reflecting slight changes compared to the previous week [6][30] Central Bank Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released key policy signals during the fourth quarter monetary policy committee meeting, emphasizing the need for continued moderate monetary policy and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [2][9][35] - The meeting highlighted the importance of integrating incremental and stock policies to effectively manage monetary policy, focusing on both short-term and long-term economic stability [3][10][36] Bond Market - The total issuance of bonds from December 22 to December 26 was 1.64 trillion yuan, a decrease of 317.94 billion yuan from the previous week, while net financing increased by 50.77 billion yuan to 235.05 billion yuan [12][38] - Government bonds saw a net financing of 266.02 billion yuan, while non-financial enterprises also achieved net financing, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [12][39] Stock Market - A-share financing totaled 29.09 billion yuan during the week, an increase of 19.19 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with total financing for the year exceeding 1.07 trillion yuan [20][46] - Major A-share indices experienced gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.87%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 3.85%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 18.26% [22][48]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, effective January 6, 2020, to support the real economy and lower financing costs [1][2] - This reduction is expected to release over 800 billion yuan in long-term funds, enhancing the stability of financial institutions' support for the real economy [1] - The move aims to maintain reasonable liquidity, aligning monetary credit and social financing growth with economic development, thereby fostering a conducive financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reforms [1][2] Group 2 - Small and medium-sized banks, including city commercial banks and rural cooperative banks, are projected to receive over 120 billion yuan in long-term funds from this reduction, strengthening their ability to serve small and private enterprises [2] - The reduction is estimated to lower banks' funding costs by approximately 15 billion yuan annually, which will help reduce the actual financing costs for small and private enterprises [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized that this measure is not a large-scale liquidity injection but a balanced approach to monetary policy, ensuring stability in the banking system's liquidity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to the guidance of Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, focusing on implementing the decisions of the Party's 20th National Congress and subsequent meetings, while enhancing the integration of Party leadership into corporate governance [2][11] Group 1: Risk Management - The company has intensified efforts in risk resolution, particularly in the financial non-performing asset market, ensuring that systemic risks are effectively managed [12] - There is a proactive approach to addressing risks associated with non-bank financial institutions, including trust plans, wealth management products, and securities asset management [12] - The company plays a role in financial rescue and counter-cyclical adjustments, participating in risk resolution in key areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions, contributing to regional economic stability [12] Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The company integrates into national strategies, increasing financial support for key sectors and vulnerable areas, and actively engages in the "Five Major Financial Articles" [4] - It supports the deepening of state-owned enterprise reforms and the growth of the private economy and enterprises [4] - The company has been involved in bankruptcy restructuring, helping distressed companies recover, and has been recognized for leading projects that are among the top ten "National Bankruptcy Classic Cases" [4][12] - The company has made social contributions, donating 5.58 million Hong Kong dollars for disaster relief and engaging in rural revitalization efforts [4][12] Group 3: Development and Reform - The company has joined the China Investment Corporation system, marking the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development [14] - It focuses on customer-centric strategies, fostering strategic client relationships, and enhancing the ecosystem for non-performing assets [14] - The company emphasizes the importance of correct performance and risk perspectives, aiming for sustainable and high-quality development [14] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company reflects on the achievements of 2025 and prepares for the new strategic development phase in 2026, emphasizing the need to explore development paths that align with national needs [15] - It aims to continue its role in risk prevention and resolution while serving the real economy effectively [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by policy expectations, economic data, and geopolitical factors. There are opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, but also risks from geopolitical events, economic downturns, and Fed policies. It is recommended to go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations have shifted. The Politburo and Central Economic Work Conference emphasized policies. Multiple ministries responded, with the central bank considering monetary tools, the NDRC focusing on consumption and anti - "involution", and the Ministry of Finance on investment. The 2026 national subsidy plan was released, and China's November foreign trade rebounded while the economy was still under pressure. The on - shore RMB rose above 7, and the A - share market had mixed performance [2] - The Fed's December meeting announced short - term bond purchases and a 25 - basis - point rate cut, with expectations of future rate cuts. The US economic data was mixed, and Trump considered suing Powell and may announce the next Fed chair in January [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and also pay attention to the potential for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The non - ferrous supply shortage persists, and the energy sector faces production cuts and geopolitical risks. In the chemical sector, "anti - involution" opportunities exist, and in agriculture, pay attention to Sino - US trade and weather. For precious metals, consider buying on dips [4] Strategy - Go long on stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Important News - Policies include equipment updates, consumer goods trade - ins, and housing sales tax regulations. Commodity futures had significant price movements, and there were multiple geopolitical events such as Trump's actions and Russia - Ukraine tensions [7]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 政策预期回摆。12月8日中共中央政治局会议召开：强调"继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策"，延续此前措辞。并强调"加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，逆周期和跨周期并提或意味着在总 量维持的前提下，明年政策边际增量更需要等待稳增长节点。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开：会议强 调，深入实施提振消费专项行动；强调深入整治"内卷式"竞争制定和实施；会议确认，把促进经济稳定 增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振消费，以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发 生变化，未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。在此基础上，多部委同步响应落实：央行明确 将灵活高效运用降准降息等货币政策工具，央行四季度例会指出，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大 逆周期和跨周期调节力度；发改委聚焦出台消费提振实招新招、整治内卷并培育新动能；财政部则提出 用好用足政府债券资金、发行超长期特别国债，着力推动投资止跌回稳。2026年国补方案出炉，新增智 能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车，调整家电、汽车补贴标准。数据方面，中国1 ...

12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》（下称《公告》），明确个人将购买不足2年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全 额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售的，免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 本次政策优化主要针对个人出售持有不满2年的住房的情形，该情形下，个人销售住房所缴增值税的税率从此前的5%下调至3%，将有效降低二手住宅交易成本，促 进二手住宅销售。 以住房售价500万元，个人持有不满2年计算，新政实施后，个人出售该住房需缴增值税税费15万元，税费成本将较此前减少10万元。 对于个人持有满2年的住房的情形，个人出售时将继续免征增值税。"新政对该情形无实质性影响，该群体继续享受免征增值税优惠政策。"上海易居房地产研究院副 院长严跃进对记者说。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉任认为，新政将降低二手住宅交易摩擦，促进挂牌销售。此前房地产市场销售纾困政策主要集中在降低首付比例、降低 利率等，税费优惠政策较少。新政的出台反映出宏观政策正在加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳定房地产市场。 严跃进表示，新政将更好满足改善型住房需求——当房东出售旧房的成本 ...

12月30日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》，明确个人将购买不足2年 的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上（含2年）的住房对外销售 的，免征增值税。《公告》自2026年1月1日起施行。 广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉认为，新政将降低二手住宅交易摩擦，促进挂牌销售。此前 房地产市场销售纾困政策主要集中在降低首付比例、降低利率等，税费优惠政策较少。新政反映出宏观 政策正在加大逆周期调节力度，着力稳定房地产市场。 （文章来源：证券时报） 本次政策优化主要针对个人出售持有不满2年的住房的情形。该情形下，个人销售住房所缴增值税的税 率从此前的5%下调至3%。以住房售价500万元、个人持有不满2年计算，新政实施后，个人出售该住房 需缴增值税税费15万元，税费成本将较此前减少10万元。 ...