Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for the first time since April strengthens the rationale for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [2][3] Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI fell by 0.1% month-over-month in August, marking the first decline in four months, while year-over-year it increased by 2.6% [2] - Excluding food and energy, the prices of goods rose by 0.3%, while service costs decreased by 0.2% [3][4] - The report indicates that despite higher costs from tariffs, companies refrained from significant price increases due to concerns about consumer behavior amid economic uncertainty [2][3] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the PPI data release, U.S. stock index futures and Treasury prices rose, reflecting increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][5] - The two-year Treasury yield fell, and the dollar weakened, with the market pricing in three rate cuts by the end of 2025 [5] Group 3: Economic Implications - The decline in wholesale inflation may influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates, especially in light of a slowing labor market [3] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to provide further insights into the impact of tariffs on household inflation [3]

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin 市场现在将关注定于周四公布的美国消费者物价指数，以了解美国通胀走势。 甲骨文股价飙升至历史新高，并创下自1992年以来的最大单日百分比涨幅，此前该公司表示，预计其云 基础设施业务的预订收入将超过5000亿美元。 巴克莱银行三个月内第二次上调了标普2025年的年终目标，从6050点上调至6450点。 特别声明：以上内容仅代表作者本人的观点或立场，不代表新浪财经头条的观点或立场。如因作品内 容、版权或其他问题需要与新浪财经头条联系的，请于上述内容发布后的30天内进行。 市场反应强烈，交易员几乎完全消化了2025年美联储将降息三次的预期。 预计美联储在9月16日至17日的会议上降息25个基点的押注比例为90%，而预计更大幅度降息50个基点 的押注比例约为10%。 与此同时，一名联邦法官周二暂时阻止了特朗普罢免美联储理事库克的计划，这是白宫在法律上的一次 挫折。 其他方面，美国国债收益率下跌。美元下滑。 ...

I think the economy is weakening, you know, whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know, and that just confirms what we already thought, kind of. And I know that's a big revision. And speaking of kind of what we were going back to with the state of the economy, the difficulty predicting one of the questions people have is what's going on with the consumer right now.They're still spending money. It's a little bit different depending on what income set they're coming from. They sti ...

A surprisingly weak August jobs report has locked in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, shifting all market focus to this Thursday’s key inflation (CPI) reportConsumer behavior is again in focus this week, with Kraft-Heinz announcing a major spinoff due to shifting preferencesKey earnings from Kroger and Restoration Hardware set to reveal the strength of spending on both essentials and larger ticket itemsLabor Market Falters, Pushing Fed Rate Cut Probability to 100%Last week’s employme ...

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports are expected to show higher inflation rates, with CPI projected at +2.9% and PPI at +3.3% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve may still consider rate cuts despite rising inflation, as the labor market's deterioration poses a greater risk than short-term inflation increases [3][4] - The rising supply of government debt and persistent inflation are straining global bond demand, indicating potential challenges for fiscal policies [4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a brief market drop following the release of the CPI and PPI reports, which could lead to institutions offloading assets onto retail investors [1] - Job openings have decreased to 7.18 million, the lowest since 2021, which may influence the Fed's decision-making regarding rate cuts [3] - Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, while silver has slipped below $41 per ounce, indicating volatility in precious metals markets [5]

Core Viewpoints - The transmission effect of upstream price increases to downstream is weakening, with PPI showing marginal improvement in August due to significant recovery in commodity prices [2][10][70] - The overall PPI remained at 0% month-on-month, primarily due to low capacity utilization in downstream sectors, which hindered the reflection of upstream price increases [2][10][70] PPI Analysis - In August, PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.9%, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations [2][10][70] - Major commodities like coal and steel continued to rise, contributing positively to PPI, while international oil price declines negatively impacted domestic oil prices [2][10][70] - Downstream sectors are experiencing significant price reductions, with PPI declines in industries such as food and automobiles, which saw respective month-on-month decreases of 0.3% [2][10][70] CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year fell to -0.4% in August, influenced by a high base from the previous year and weak food prices, with food CPI dropping by 4.3% [3][23][50] - The core CPI is expanding, with core goods CPI rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by high gold prices and demand from the third batch of national subsidies [3][29][71] - Service CPI showed slight growth, supported by summer travel and healthcare service reforms, while rental prices remained weak due to high youth unemployment [4][33][62] Future Outlook - Commodity prices are expected to continue rising, but excess supply in downstream sectors may limit the transmission of price increases from upstream [4][72] - Year-end PPI is projected to recover to a maximum of -2.1%, while CPI may remain negative in Q3 but could turn positive in Q4 due to policy support for service consumption [4][72]

A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. producer prices is bolstering expectations for rate cuts, but with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index on deck, investors will need to brace for a potentially stickier inflation picture.Economists forecast that the August Consumer Price Index will show headline inflation climbing to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July. If confirmed, that would be the highest annual pace since January 2025.The core inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is ex ...

A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. producer prices is bolstering expectations for rate cuts, but with Wednesday's Consumer Price Index on deck, investors will need to brace for a potentially stickier inflation picture. Economists forecast that the August Consumer Price Index will show headline inflation climbing to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July. If confirmed, that would be the highest annual pace since January 2025. The core inflation rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth faces challenges such as rising steel inventory pressure and weakening power plant daily consumption [1][4]. - Inflation shows that the rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient, and oil prices have significantly declined [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure 3.1.1 Production: Weakening Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has weakened marginally. On September 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 869,000 tons, a 5.8% decrease from September 2. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19 [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has significantly declined. On September 5, the national blast furnace operating rate was 80.4%, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from August 29; the capacity utilization rate was 85.8%, a 4.2 - percentage - point decrease from August 29. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.8% on September 5, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from August 29 [4][14]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On September 4, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 59.8%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 28; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 67.5%, a 5.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28. The operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise. On September 4, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.3%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from August 28, and the operating rate of downstream weaving machines was 62.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from August 28 [4][16]. 3.1.2 Demand: Rising Steel Inventory Pressure - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has turned positive month - on - month. From September 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 196,000 square meters, an 11.2% increase from the same period in August, a 15.4% increase from the same period in September last year, a 20.3% decrease from the same period in September 2023, and a 38.7% decrease from the same period in September 2022. After the Shenzhen property market new policy was released on September 5, the market activity increased [4][22]. - The retail trend of the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][25]. - Steel prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 1.2%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2. However, the steel inventory pressure has increased. On September 5, the inventory of five major steel products was 1.0777 million tons, a 313,000 - ton increase from August 29 [4][30]. - Cement prices continue to decline. On September 9, the national cement price index fell 1.0% compared with September 2. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions fell 3.4% and 4.9% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][30]. - Glass prices have rebounded. On September 9, the active glass futures contract price was 1,199 yuan per ton, a 5.0% increase from September 2 [4][36]. - The container shipping freight index has weakly stabilized. On September 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% compared with August 29, and the SCFI index fell 0.04% [4][38]. 3.2 Inflation: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Insufficient Rebound Momentum of Pork Prices - The rebound momentum of pork prices is insufficient. On September 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.9 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% increase from September 2. The month - on - month decline has narrowed [4][45]. - The agricultural product price index has steadily rebounded. On September 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% compared with September 2. By variety, eggs (up 3.4%) > vegetables (up 2.2%) > chicken (up 0.6%) > fruits (up 0.4%) > pork (up 0.3%) > beef (up 0.3%) > mutton (down 0.3%) [4][49]. 3.2.2 PPI: Significant Decline in Oil Prices - Oil prices have significantly declined. On September 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 66.9 and 62.6 US dollars per barrel, a 3.7% and 4.5% decrease respectively compared with September 9. Major oil - producing countries have decided to increase production, intensifying concerns about oversupply [4][52]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively compared with September 2 [4][55]. - The domestic commodity index has declined month - on - month. On September 9, the Nanhua industrial products index fell 0.2% compared with September 2, and the CRB index fell 0.7% [4][56].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming inflation data release is critical, as persistent inflation could lead to significant market downturns, particularly for the S&P 500, reminiscent of the 2022 crash [2][4][15] Group 1: Inflation and Market Impact - Historical precedents indicate that persistent inflation can lead to severe market declines, with the S&P 500 dropping nearly 50% during similar conditions from 1972 to 1974 [5] - Current inflationary pressures are exacerbated by tariffs, immigration policies, and tax changes, which collectively contribute to rising prices and persistent inflation [6][16] - If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain or increase interest rates, negatively impacting equity valuations as future cash flows are discounted at higher rates [10][11] Group 2: Market Reactions and Risks - Automated trading systems may exacerbate market volatility, triggering rapid sell-offs in response to negative inflation data, potentially leading to flash crashes [12] - New investors, unfamiliar with bear markets, may panic-sell during downturns, further intensifying market declines [13] - The use of borrowed money for investments could lead to forced liquidations, creating a domino effect that drives prices down across various asset classes [13] Group 3: Investment Strategies - To mitigate risks associated with inflation and market downturns, investors may consider diversified portfolios like the High Quality (HQ) portfolio, which has shown strong performance metrics [8][14] - The Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio offers a balanced approach, combining large, mid, and small-cap stocks to capitalize on market conditions while limiting losses during downturns [14]