今天群里在传类似下面的这张图，意思是保险的预定利率又要下调了，直接说结论， 这个趋势没错，但具体数字是错的 ， 属于典型的听到风声，就直接让客户抓紧买伞的饥渴营销打法。 我们去年底在《 2025金融行业的十大猜想 》里，提到过，今年，OMO、存款利率、保险预定利率预计都会继续下调， 低 利率时代的趋势将延续 ，其中保险预定利率的下调，主要和行业普遍性的利差损风险有关。 那么，上面这个捕风捉影的消息， 其来源和背景是这样的 。 24年8月的时候，监管首次提出， 保险的预定利率，要和市场利率挂钩的动态调整机制 ，其目的，就是为了防止资产价格 哗啦啦下行的时候，保险公司还继续按照惯性，卖高利率的保单，最后利差越拉越大，不可收拾。 25年1月，监管正式出台了通知，明确了上面这个动态调整机制，具体要怎么执行，触发条件是： 比如在市场利率下行的周期，如果在售产品的最高预定利率， 连续两个季度比 " 研究值 " 高 0.25% 时 （相当于一个阈 值），就需要调整利率，并在 2 个月内完成新老产品切换。 举例来说，现在保险行业的最高预定利率，是2.5%，那么，如果连续两个季度的"研究值"，在2.25%以下，则这个最高预定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between interest rates and valuations, emphasizing that not all declining interest rate environments will lead to valuation increases. It outlines two primary methods for valuation enhancement: through accelerated growth or rising ROE, and through a low interest rate environment [3][23]. Group 1: Valuation Enhancement Methods - Valuation can be enhanced through two methods: one is during the accelerated growth or ROE upturn phase, and the other is in a low interest rate environment [3][23]. - In a low interest rate environment, the valuation is influenced by both the numerator (ROE) and the denominator (interest rates and risk premiums) [4][30]. - The relationship between valuation and ROE is positively correlated across countries, while the relationship between valuation and interest rates varies, showing positive, weak, or negative correlations depending on the country [4][31]. Group 2: Scenarios for Valuation Increase - Valuation increases during a declining interest rate phase are most evident in environments of extreme liquidity, where short-term real interest rates drop significantly [7][42]. - If economic recovery is strong, valuations will rise alongside interest rates due to inflation expectations, as seen in the post-pandemic U.S. [8][47]. - In cases of economic deflation, profit and inflation expectations may lead to further declines in valuations, as observed in Japan in the 1990s and Italy in the 2010s [8][47]. Group 3: Valuation and Interest Rate Dynamics - The average PB valuation low point for developed countries is 0.85 times, corresponding to an average interest rate of 2.46% [9][10]. - The low point of valuations is influenced by fundamentals, while the low point of interest rates is determined by monetary liquidity [9][10]. - Countries with strong fundamentals (e.g., U.S., Japan, Germany, France) tend to see valuation increases in sectors with comparative advantages, such as consumer discretionary, technology, and healthcare [12][47]. Group 4: A-share Market Valuation Potential - As interest rates decline, the extent of valuation increases diminishes, indicating a reduced sensitivity of valuations to interest rates [15][17]. - For example, when interest rates are at 4%, a 20% decline leads to a 16.9% increase in valuation; however, at 1.6%, the same decline results in only a 9.5% increase [15][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance During Interest Rate Changes - In the A-share market, sectors such as utilities and coal saw valuation increases when interest rates fell from 3.2% to 2.2%, while sectors driven by economic conditions, like TMT, performed better when rates fell from 2.2% to 1.6% [17][20]. - The performance of stable assets may not yield excess returns in the later stages of declining interest rates, as market dynamics shift towards growth-oriented assets [17][20].

低利率时代下，银行理财市场正不断寻求变革。随着2024年年报的披露，已有20家理财公司"成绩单"浮出水面，"赚钱"能力提升、产品规模壮大成为大部分 理财公司年报内的亮点，但在结构调整等经营策略影响下，也不乏理财公司掉队，出现净利润增速下滑或产品规模减少的情况。 存款降息进程的不断推进，使得理财产品收益率优势凸显，年报之外，降费率与下调业绩比较基准时常交替或同时出现。而客户需求的日益多元、监管政策 的号召，也促使理财公司积极求变，探索权益市场配置机会。 进入2025年，银行理财市场存续规模有望在30万亿关口突围，以固收类产品作为中流砥柱的理财公司将有哪些"新打法"？ 年报之内：规模与业绩分化 受益于债券牛市行情，2024年多数理财公司交出亮眼"成绩单"，20家理财公司中18家披露净利润情况，其中14家"赚钱"能力提升。 年报内是净利与规模的"战报"，年报外则是客源的争夺。随着存款利率的不断下行，理财产品收益率优势凸显，理财产品费率优惠已成为理财公司惯常吸引 客户的方式。4月14日，北京商报记者梳理发现，2025年开年至今，中银理财、中邮理财、招银理财、兴银理财、光大理财、渤银理财、宁银理财等多家理 财公司宣布对 ...

分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 现金增利基金策略 本周取得0.027%的收益，优于比较基准中证货币基金指数，超额收益不断累积，策略运行以 来累计获得超额收益0.371%。 海外权益配置基金策略 本周收跌，录得收益-1.537%，近期美股担忧情绪持续升温，对于部分经济数据选择朝 着利空方向进行交易，交易美国经济滞涨风险，同时受到"对等关税"冲击，海外市场持续震荡下行。中长期来 看，美国经济未出现显著衰退转向，在人工智能带来上游设备端和下游应用端的增量，其他行业科技公司新品 层出不穷，美股有望在快速科技增长以及短期风险事件消化后确定性提高的共同作用下，开启新一轮行情，全 球化投资仍具有较强的分散化配置价值 。 投资要点 本周特朗普宣布实施"对等关税"，加税力度大幅超出市场预期，周四全球市场发生较大波动，A股市场也在此 冲击下有所回落。常青低波组合在震荡环境中依旧保持韧劲，回撤幅度相对可控，我们在策略上的防御观点也 在持续积累超额收益。海外同样受到关税的影响，在原本已经计价部分关税预期的基础之上，市场的恐慌和担 忧情绪进一步加剧，美股市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" announced by Trump this week led to significant fluctuations in the global market, with the A-share market also declining. The Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy continued to accumulate excess returns, and the defensive view in the strategy was verified [2]. - The recommended order of quantitative strategy allocation is Evergreen Low-Volatility Strategy > Overseas Equity Strategy > Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy. For A-shares, a neutral and cautious attitude is maintained in the short and medium term, and a defensive allocation is recommended. For overseas markets, investors with low overseas positions can appropriately deploy at the bottom, and the long - term upward trend of US stocks is still optimistic [3]. - The Evergreen Low-Volatility Fund Strategy had a small correction this week, with a return of -0.626%, showing low - volatility defensive attributes and still being worthy of allocation. The Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy closed down this week, with a return of -1.215%, and its excess performance needs to wait [4]. - The Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy achieved a return of 0.027% this week, outperforming the benchmark. The Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy closed down this week, with a return of -1.537%. In the long - term, the globalization investment still has strong diversification allocation value [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Construction Ideas - For active equity funds, a low - volatility fund portfolio strategy is constructed to meet the defensive needs of investors in high - risk markets and the needs of investors with moderate risk preferences. An equity fund portfolio strategy with similar risk - volatility characteristics to the benchmark index is constructed to provide a more offensive choice for investors with high risk preferences [11]. - For money funds, a money fund screening system is built to help investors optimize short - term idle funds. For QDII funds, an overseas market selected portfolio is constructed to meet the needs of global asset allocation [12]. 1.1. Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The strategy aims to select funds with long - term stable returns in high - equity - position actively managed funds. By considering the maximum drawdown, volatility, and valuation of funds, a low - volatility active equity fund portfolio is constructed [13]. 1.2. Equity Fund Enhancement Portfolio - The strategy aims to meet the needs of equity fund investors with different risk preferences. By analyzing the source of fund returns and constructing a portfolio based on the continuity of Alpha returns, it provides an offensive choice for high - risk - preference investors [14]. 1.3. Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - A money fund screening system is constructed by considering multiple factors such as management fees, duration, and institutional holding ratio, to help investors optimize short - term idle funds [15]. 1.4. Overseas Equity Allocation Portfolio - Based on long - and short - term technical indicators, an overseas market selected portfolio is constructed by screening equity indices of multiple countries or regions, meeting the needs of investors for global asset allocation [12]. 2. Tool - based Fund Portfolio Performance Tracking | Strategy | This Week Return | Last Month Return | YTD Return | Return Since Strategy Inception | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Strategy | -0.626% | 1.388% | 0.718% | 8.582% | | Equity Fund Enhancement Strategy | -1.215% | 1.027% | 1.668% | 9.332% | | Cash Enhancement Fund Strategy | 0.027% | 0.141% | 0.433% | 3.320% | | Overseas Equity Allocation Fund Strategy | -1.537% | -2.786% | -1.097% | 23.104% | [17] 2.1. Evergreen Low - Volatility Fund Portfolio - The portfolio has long - term low - volatility characteristics, with significantly better volatility and maximum drawdown than the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It has achieved significant excess returns and has both defensive and offensive capabilities [19][20]. 2.2. Equity Fund Enhancement Portfolio - Since the strategy has been running for a short time, its performance is close to the CSI Active Equity Fund Index. It is expected to have stronger elasticity when the market environment improves [22]. 2.3. Cash Enhancement Fund Portfolio - After double screening of risk elimination and scoring, the portfolio has continuously outperformed the benchmark, and the cumulative excess return since July 2023 has exceeded 0.29% [26]. 2.4. Overseas Equity Allocation Portfolio - Since July 31, 2023, the portfolio has accumulated high - level excess returns, and global allocation can increase the return of the equity investment portfolio [27].

据证券时报，近期，多家机构再次上调了黄金目标价格，高盛将2025年底金价预测从此前的3100美元上 调到了3300美元。高盛表示，看涨黄金价格的主要原因在于央行对黄金的需求超出预期，且资金稳健流 入黄金ETF。 高盛预计亚洲大型央行可能在未来3~6年继续快速购金，中国等国的目标黄金储备比例或从目前8%提高 至20%~30%。此外，花旗、瑞银集团、法国巴黎银行等海外机构同样上调了黄金价格预期。 金信期货研报认为，在其稀缺特性、全球债务增长以及货币超发、美元信用下滑、央行购金需求持续的 大背景下，金价长期向上的驱动并不改变；而现在或者说此后一段时间全球仍将处于低利率时代，同时 联储进入新一轮降息周期，ETF资金流入成为中期强有力推手。维持2025年年报金价中枢将继续上扬的 观点，并上调目标区域至3340~3475美元/盎司。 贵金属板块逆市领涨，西部黄金涨超7%，赤峰黄金、山金国际、四川黄金等纷纷上涨。 3月31日，国际现货黄金价格再次刷新历史新高，突破3100美元/盎司。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3105.645 | | | + ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that in a low-interest-rate environment, multi-asset strategies have gained popularity among investors as they seek better returns and diversification [1][4]. - The report discusses the concept of asset allocation diversification, highlighting its importance in the current market conditions and how it can mitigate risks while enhancing potential returns [3][4]. - The report suggests that multi-asset strategies are particularly suitable in the current economic landscape, where traditional fixed-income investments may yield lower returns due to sustained low interest rates [1][3]. Group 2 - The report outlines specific methods for achieving asset allocation diversification, which include a mix of equities, fixed income, and alternative investments to optimize portfolio performance [3][4]. - The discussion includes insights from industry experts on the effectiveness of multi-asset strategies in navigating market volatility and achieving long-term investment goals [1][4]. - The report indicates that the shift towards multi-asset strategies reflects a broader trend in the investment community, driven by changing economic conditions and investor preferences [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent adjustment of the predetermined interest rate for life insurance, which has been lowered to 2.5% as of September 2024, and anticipates further reductions to 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This change is expected to affect premium levels and insurance company asset allocation strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustment - The predetermined interest rate was officially lowered to 2.5% in September 2024, with expectations of further reduction to 2.0% by the end of 2025. This adjustment is part of a dynamic mechanism linking predetermined rates to government bond yields [2][3]. - The adjustment aims to enhance investment returns for insurance companies and encourage the allocation of insurance funds into the capital market, with a target of 30% of new premiums being invested in the capital market starting in 2025 [2][6]. Group 2: Pricing and Premium Stability - The pricing of life insurance products will increase due to the lower predetermined interest rates, but the "stop-sale" strategy may help stabilize premium volumes, despite a less favorable outlook for the 2025 sales season [3][4]. - The life insurance profit model relies on interest spread, fee spread, and mortality spread, with fair premium pricing being crucial for maintaining balance between present value of premiums and claims [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Strategy - The current asset allocation of life insurance companies is heavily weighted towards fixed-income assets, with bonds constituting approximately 50.2% of total investments as of Q4 2024. The investment yield has been declining, increasing the risk of interest spread losses [4][5]. - Recommendations for asset allocation include increasing equity, alternative, and overseas asset investments while maintaining a dominant position in bond assets, particularly long-duration bonds [5][7]. Group 4: Long-term Implications of Policy Changes - The policy requiring 30% of new premiums to be invested in A-shares is expected to have limited short-term impact on insurance asset allocation but significant long-term effects, potentially increasing equity allocation to around 20% over five years [6]. - While increasing equity investments may reduce solvency ratios, the overall impact on insurance companies' solvency is anticipated to be limited due to the corresponding decrease in equity asset allocation [6].

行业研究丨深度报告丨房地产 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从国际经验来看，地产量价对利率方向较为敏感，但实际利率比名义利率更重要，核心城市和 核心房产并不一定具备绝对阿尔法。中国全局房价逐步接近均衡区间，但结构性压力仍存，当 前已进入"低利率时代"，名义利率持续降至新低，但实际利率仍偏高，政策仍需持续发力，今 年有望进入超常规区间，后续关注基准利率下降幅度、房贷利率减点以及通胀预期修复等进展。 [Table_Title] 低利率时代的不动产定价规律 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 宋子逸 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490522080002 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 低利率时代的不动产定价规律 [Table_Summary2] 如何界定低利率时代？ 低利率是对经济基本面的反馈，但经济修复的路径并非坦途，深度降息是走出困境的必要条件 之一，低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The low interest rate environment poses challenges for insurance companies, leading overseas insurers to extend bond durations and increase equity allocations. In the short term, China's bond market shows a slight shortage of long-term supply, and the current liability structure of insurers is sensitive to net assets, which poses some resistance to increasing equity allocations. However, in the medium to long term, with ongoing policy support for insurance capital market entry and improvements in capital market infrastructure, the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity will gradually increase, alleviating investment pressure [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Impact of Interest Rates on Insurance Companies - The valuation of A-share listed insurance companies is generally aligned with interest rates. Since 2011, the valuation of insurance companies has maintained a consistent relationship with bond yields, with only a few exceptions during specific periods [17][19]. - The decline in interest rates can lead to increased risks of interest spread losses due to duration mismatches, negatively impacting net assets and the intrinsic value of insurance companies [6][24]. Overseas Insurance Asset Allocation Strategies - U.S. insurers have significantly increased their equity allocations from 9.9% in 1980 to 30.8% in 2021, making equities the second-largest asset class after bonds. Additionally, the duration of bonds held by U.S. insurers has been extended, with the proportion of bonds with a remaining term of over 20 years increasing by 4.8 percentage points since 1997 [7][44][57]. - Japanese insurers have also extended bond durations and increased overseas asset allocations, with the overseas allocation rising from 12.8% in 2008 to 25% in 2023 [68]. - South Korean insurers have gradually increased overseas asset allocations from 2.8% in 1999 to 11.6% in 2022, while the bond proportion has decreased from 57.9% in 2013 to 46.2% in 2022 [8][77]. Policy Support for Equity Allocation - Policies encouraging long-term capital market entry are being implemented, aiming to enhance the willingness and ability of insurers to allocate equity. The goal is to have 30% of new insurance premiums invested in the stock market annually, which could potentially increase equity allocation by approximately 295.7 billion yuan if the proportion is adjusted to 60% [9][10][9].