Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is guiding for growth in the current quarter and believes the upcycle has momentum [9] - Non-GAAP gross margin target is set at 65% and operating margin target at 40% [8] - Current OpEx guidance is approximately $356 million on a non-GAAP basis, which is considered the low point [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company combined its 8-bit and 32-bit microcontroller divisions to address a product gap [6] - The Aerospace and Defense (A&D) segment has grown from about 11% to 18% of revenue, indicating strong performance [33] - The introduction of a 64-bit microcontroller is aimed at applications in industrial control and medical sectors [40] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Inventory levels are being corrected, with a noted difference of $103 million between distribution sell-through and sell-in last quarter [26] - Distributors had an average of 33 days of inventory, which is expected to decrease further [27] - The company does not see significant variation in inventory correction across different end markets [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving customer relationships and has moved away from non-cancelable, non-reschedulable orders [8] - A new long-term business model has been unveiled, emphasizing a focus on customer engagement and market alignment [8] - The company is exploring attractive secular growth opportunities, particularly in connectivity and FPGA markets [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes they have seen the bottom of the cycle and are optimistic about future growth [9] - There is a focus on rational conversations with customers to avoid overreactions in the current uncertain environment [50] - The company is seeing an increase in bookings activity, indicating a positive outlook for the future [52] Other Important Information - The company has closed its Fab two manufacturing facility to improve inventory management and margins [5] - Management has indicated that they are not pursuing a 300mm fab due to the diverse product portfolio [15] - The company has a proactive approach to managing potential tariff impacts by ensuring visibility in manufacturing locations [55] Q&A Session Summary Question: Are there any more changes needed in the manufacturing network? - The closure of Fab two was strategic, and there is ample room for expansion in other facilities [13] Question: What is the status of customer relationships? - About 90% of previously damaged relationships have been repaired through direct engagement [19] Question: How should OpEx be viewed going forward? - OpEx cuts are complete, and as revenue grows, OpEx as a percentage of sales is expected to decrease [25] Question: How far is the company from shipping to end demand? - The company expects the difference between sell-through and sell-in to converge over the fiscal year [26] Question: What is the outlook for the Aerospace and Defense business? - The A&D segment continues to grow and is a significant focus for the company [33] Question: How is the company positioned regarding tariffs and manufacturing? - The company has a low percentage of revenue built in China and is cross-qualifying products to mitigate risks [57] Question: What is the path to improving gross margins? - The company expects inventory reserve charges to decrease as inventory levels fall and revenue increases [67] Question: Is Microchip considering further acquisitions? - Small acquisitions are still on the table, but the focus is primarily on subscale opportunities [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record net sales of $1,100,000,000 for Q1 2025, representing an 8% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding the expected range of 4% to 6% [6][14] - Operating margin was 9.3%, with earnings per share of $1.59, both above the previously provided ranges [6][14] - The company returned $200,000,000 to shareholders through share repurchases, totaling 5% of shares outstanding as of the beginning of the year [6][18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hollister brand achieved a 22% net sales growth, with comparable sales up 23%, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of growth [7][15] - Abercrombie Brands experienced a 4% net sales decline, with comparable sales down 10%, primarily due to a decline in average unit retail (AUR) as the company worked through winter carryover inventory [9][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas region saw a 7% growth, while EMEA grew by 12% and APAC by 5% [7][14] - Strong comparable sales were reported across all regions, with the Americas up 4%, EMEA up 6%, and APAC up 2% [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to add around 100 new physical experiences in 2025, including 60 new stores and 40 remodels, while maintaining a focus on global growth [13][21] - The management emphasized the importance of agility in inventory management and marketing investments to align product offerings with customer demand [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving sequential improvement in sales for Abercrombie Brands in the second half of the year, driven by positive customer responses to new product categories [10][41] - The company anticipates a full-year net sales growth of 3% to 6%, with operating margin expected to be in the range of 12.5% to 13.5% [20][21] Other Important Information - The company is not planning broad-based ticket price increases despite anticipated tariff impacts, focusing instead on maintaining product quality and aligning inventory with customer value perception [11][19] - The tax rate for the quarter was in line with expectations at 25%, with net income per diluted share above outlook at $1.59 compared to $2.14 last year [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for Hollister and Abercrombie - Management highlighted the strong performance of Hollister and discussed the flexibility of Abercrombie's model to respond to customer trends, expecting an inflection in the back half of the year [30][41] Question: Full Year Profit Outlook - The management explained the reduction in profit expectations primarily due to tariffs, while maintaining confidence in the sales growth outlook based on strong balance sheet and planned investments [38][39] Question: Traffic and Inventory Levels - Positive traffic was reported for both Abercrombie and Hollister, with management indicating that carryover inventory levels are normalized compared to previous years [45][46] Question: Promotions and Growth Expectations - Management discussed expectations for promotions, indicating that AUR pressure would continue in the near term but would improve in the back half of the year [94][96] Question: Growth in Europe and Asia - The company remains optimistic about growth in EMEA and APAC, particularly in the UK and Germany, where strong performance was noted [99][100] Question: Improvement for Abercrombie - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in Q1 but expressed confidence in the brand's ability to adapt and respond to emerging trends, expecting improvement in the second half [102][106]

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 0 780 7300 7515 9250 7780 855 917 -31 7222 40 82 5312 2025/05/2 1 780 7260 7525 9200 7780 855 917 -5 7221 30 81 5312 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7085 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -84 7080 60 80 5312 日度变化 0 -50 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -5 20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东南亚维稳。进口利润-400附近 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is maintaining a "buy" rating while focusing on high dividends and expanding in the running and outdoor sectors, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for FY2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue is projected at 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 41.9% [1] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 135% for the full year, with a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [1] - Revised net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 1.32 billion, 1.59 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [1] Group 2: Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Main brand revenue for FY2025 is 23.31 billion yuan, a decline of 6.1%, accounting for 86.3% of total revenue, while other brand revenue is 3.5 billion yuan, down 9.9% [1] - Direct online sales have seen double-digit growth, increasing their share to 30-40% from 20-30% in FY2024 [1] - Retail and wholesale revenues decreased by 6.8% and 5.8%, respectively, indicating a challenging sales environment [1] Group 3: Store Management and Operations - As of FY2025, the number of stores is 5,020, a decrease of 18.3% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing low-efficiency stores [2] - The average sales area per store has increased by 7.2%, reflecting a strategy of tailored store adjustments [2] - Inventory management has improved, with inventory down 4.5% to 6 billion yuan and inventory turnover days at 134.9 days, a slight improvement [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cost Management - FY2025 gross margin is 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points, with a slight increase in expense ratio to 33.1% [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) is 5.9%, and net profit margin is 4.8%, both showing declines [2] - The company has managed to maintain cash flow, with net cash increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan, which is 2.6 times the net profit [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for the company, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [19]. Core Insights - The company's operating revenue for the 2024/25 fiscal year was 27.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with the decline in the second half narrowing to 5.4% compared to 7.9% in the first half [2][8]. - The retail business, the main revenue source, saw a 6.8% decline to 23.03 billion yuan, with improvements in the second half attributed to online sales initiatives [2][8]. - The gross margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while net profit fell by 41.9% to 12.85 billion yuan, influenced by increased discount rates and changes in sales channel mix [4][10]. - The company maintained a strong cash flow, with net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 20% to 3.76 billion yuan, supporting a high dividend payout ratio of 135% [5][12]. Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for the 2024/25 fiscal year was under pressure, primarily due to a weak consumption environment and reduced offline foot traffic [2][8]. - Retail revenue declined by 6.8% year-on-year, with the main brand's sales down 6.1% to 23.31 billion yuan [2][8]. - The online business segment showed double-digit growth, contributing to an increase in its share of overall direct business to 30%-40% [3][9]. Margin and Profitability - The overall gross margin decreased to 38.4%, with a notable decline in net profit by 41.9% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company is focusing on expense control, with total expenses decreasing by 5.6% year-on-year, while aiming to improve profit margins through efficiency [4][10]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company reported a robust cash generation capability, with free cash flow at 3.38 billion yuan, 2.6 times the net profit for the same period [5][12]. - A final dividend of 0.02 yuan per share and a special dividend of 0.12 yuan per share were proposed, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a full-year dividend payout ratio of 135% for FY2025, reflecting a cumulative payout ratio of 104.2% over the past six years [5] - Revenue for FY2025 is projected at 27.01 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, while net profit is expected to be 1.286 billion HKD, down 41.9% [5][8] - The company is adjusting its earnings forecasts for FY2026-2028, with expected net profits of 1.32 billion HKD, 1.591 billion HKD, and 1.85 billion HKD respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.4 for FY2026, 11.1 for FY2027, and 9.5 for FY2028 [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2025 revenue is expected to be 27,013 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 6.6% [8] - FY2025 net profit is projected at 1,286 million HKD, representing a 41.9% decrease compared to FY2024 [8] - Gross margin for FY2025 is anticipated to be 38.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from the previous year [7][8] - The operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to be 5.9%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.2% for FY2025 [8]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue increased by 9.12% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 93.45 million, a year-on-year loss expansion of 64.47% due to high R&D and equipment depreciation costs [1] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 6.77%, but the net profit loss expanded to 38.46 million, attributed to ongoing R&D and sampling costs, as well as increased equipment depreciation [2] - The company's financial expenses in 2024 rose by 1080.22% to 6.43 million, primarily due to new bank loans and discounts [5] Asset Management - Asset impairment losses in 2024 increased by 80.99%, mainly due to inventory write-downs and fixed asset impairments [3] - The inventory turnover rate in Q1 2025 decreased by 62.94%, prompting plans for improved inventory management [4] Cash Flow and Debt Management - In Q1 2025, net cash flow from operating activities increased by 230.25%, while cash reserves decreased by 27.13% due to increased investment expenditures [10] - The company's interest-bearing debt grew by 25.80%, with short-term loans amounting to 155 million, but the overall scale remains manageable [13] Market Strategy and Innovation - The company faces challenges from U.S.-China decoupling and increased competition, but plans to stabilize core resources and explore new markets [6][7] - The company aims to enhance R&D investment and improve product quality to increase gross margins, which were -14.13% in Q1 2025 [8][9] - The company has achieved significant results in market expansion, becoming a qualified supplier for major clients [7] Accounts Receivable Management - Accounts receivable increased significantly in 2024, with credit impairment losses rising by 230.18%, but the company maintains a strategy to control customer credit risk [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 16% year-over-year, reaching nearly $5 billion [7][35] - Gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 57.9%, while operating margins improved by 200 basis points to 23.6% [7][35] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased by 30% year-over-year to $6.33 [7][38] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HOKA brand revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, with wholesale revenue also increasing by 24% [12][35] - UGG brand revenue increased by 13% to $2.5 billion, with wholesale revenue rising by 15% [23][35] - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue for HOKA increased by 23%, while UGG's DTC revenue rose by 11% [12][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International revenue for HOKA expanded by 39%, now representing 34% of global revenue, up from 30% last year [12] - U.S. revenue for HOKA rose by 17%, totaling just under $1.5 billion [12] - UGG's international revenue grew by 20%, now accounting for 39% of global sales, up from 37% last year [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a balanced channel mix of 50% DTC and 50% wholesale, focusing on brand-led growth and innovation [10][11] - HOKA is positioned as a leading performance brand with plans to expand its market share through innovation and increased brand awareness [19][22] - UGG is focusing on increasing adoption among male consumers and developing year-round products to capture a broader market [25][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment and its potential impact on consumer spending [29][31] - The company expects to face challenges in fiscal year 2026 due to tariff impacts, estimating an increase of up to $150 million in cost of goods sold [39][41] - Despite these challenges, management remains confident in the long-term growth potential of both HOKA and UGG brands [29][41] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately $567 million worth of shares during fiscal year 2025, reflecting strong cash flow generation [38][47] - A new board chair, Cindy Davis, was announced, succeeding Mike Devine [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the slowdown in HOKA U.S. DTC - Management noted that the slowdown was due to several unique factors affecting the U.S. market, but international DTC performance remained strong [54][56] Question: Potential for mid-teens growth for HOKA - Management expressed confidence in HOKA's growth potential, emphasizing that the brand's international growth would likely outpace U.S. growth [60][66] Question: Transition to new models and tariff costs - Management confirmed that the $150 million tariff cost is a gross number, with potential mitigations through pricing strategies [76][78]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - In FY2025Q1, Puma achieved revenue of €2.08 billion, which is in line with expectations (Bloomberg consensus of €2.04 billion), with a year-on-year growth of +0.1% at constant exchange rates. The gross margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 47.0%, primarily impacted by high inventory valuations and exchange rate fluctuations [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Region**: The Greater China region continues to be weak, while the EMEA region shows better performance. EMEA revenue increased by 5.1% year-on-year to €0.89 billion, while the Greater China and US markets saw double-digit declines, leading to a year-on-year revenue drop of -4.7% and -2.7% in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions, respectively, to €0.43 billion and €0.75 billion [5] - **By Channel**: E-commerce channels are growing faster, while wholesale channels are slightly dragging down performance. Direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenue increased by 12.0% year-on-year to €0.55 billion, benefiting from strong e-commerce growth (+17.3%) and retail store sales growth (+8.9%). However, wholesale revenue declined by 3.6% year-on-year to €1.53 billion due to pressures in the Greater China and US markets [5] - **By Product**: Product performance is mixed, with footwear showing better growth. Revenue for footwear, apparel, and equipment grew by 2.4%, -1.5%, and -5.7% respectively, reaching €1.19 billion, €0.59 billion, and €0.30 billion. Footwear growth is driven by running, basketball, and sports fashion categories, while the golf category negatively impacted equipment sales [5] Inventory Situation - As of FY2025Q1, Puma's inventory stood at €2.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, primarily due to accelerated deliveries of products to the US market amid tariff impacts [8] Tariff Impact - The company has a low procurement ratio from China and is actively responding to tariff impacts. The US market accounts for approximately 20% of revenue, with about 10% of procurement from China, which is decreasing. The company has shifted procurement for the 2025 autumn/winter products from China to other markets to mitigate potential tariff impacts [8] Performance Guidance - Puma maintains its full-year guidance, expecting low to mid-single-digit sales growth year-on-year at constant exchange rates for FY2025 (Bloomberg consensus expects €8.93 billion, +1.3% year-on-year). EBIT is projected to be between €520 million and €600 million, representing a year-on-year decline of 16.4% to 3.5% [8]

Industry Overview - The apparel industry is facing significant challenges, including limited market growth and intense competition among numerous brands, both international and domestic [4] - The overall retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, which is 11.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate for the entire year of 2023 [2][4] - Online retail sales increased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate for clothing items was only 7.0%, indicating underperformance compared to the overall online retail growth [2] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 52 listed footwear and apparel companies achieved total revenue of 134.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.19 billion, up 22.85% [6] - Only 13 companies achieved both revenue and profit growth, while 39 companies failed to outperform the market [6] - The average net profit margin for the industry was 5.99%, with a gross profit margin of 51.42%, indicating high efficiency in converting costs to gross profit but limited overall profitability [11] Company Performance - Anta Sports led the industry with revenue of 33.735 billion, a growth rate of 13.80%, followed by Li Ning and Hailan Home [27] - Among the listed companies, only a few achieved high profit margins, with only 10 companies having a net profit margin exceeding 15% [11] - The performance of companies varied significantly, with some like Dafni International showing a profit margin exceeding 30%, while others like La Chapelle faced losses exceeding 20% [11] Inventory and Store Management - The inventory pressure remains high, with total inventory for 52 footwear and apparel companies reaching 53.655 billion, averaging 1.032 billion per company, which exceeds the revenue of 24 companies [13] - The number of physical stores in the industry has seen minimal growth, with at least 3,004 stores closing in the first half of the year, averaging 16 closures per day [19] - Companies like Semir and Hailan Home have shown positive store growth, while others like Taiping Bird and Aokang International have seen significant store reductions [19] Online Sales and Market Trends - Online channels are becoming increasingly important, with some companies reporting over 30% of their sales coming from online platforms [24] - The apparel industry is experiencing a shift towards online sales, with platforms like Douyin contributing significantly to growth [24] - The sportswear segment is performing well, driven by major sporting events and a growing number of people participating in sports, with total revenue for sportswear companies reaching 64.231 billion, accounting for 47.60% of total revenue [25] Challenges in Specific Segments - The women's apparel market is highly competitive, with many brands struggling due to high inventory levels and a significant return rate of 80% in e-commerce [30][34] - The men's apparel segment is also facing challenges, with many companies reporting declines in revenue and profit [35] - The children's apparel market is underperforming due to a decrease in the birth rate and increased competition from adult brands entering the children's segment [40]