油料日报 | 2026-02-05 豆一购销收尾震荡，花生备货尾声趋稳 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2603合约8030.00元/吨，较前日变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，花生现货均价 8009.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差PK03-1230.00，环比变化+0.00，幅度+0.00%。 市场资讯汇总：现货方面，昨日全国花生市场通货米均价8009元/斤，下跌4元/吨，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货米好 货3.5-3.9元/斤不等、8筛精米4.15-4.3元/斤，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.4-4.5元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.55-4.65 元/斤、8筛精米5-5.1元/斤，花育23通货米4.3-4.37元/斤左右，以质论价。全国油厂油料米合同采购均价7350元/吨， 山东均价7263元/吨，稳定，全国各油厂报价6800-7900元/吨不等，以质论价，严控指标。 昨日花生期货主力合约价格震荡小幅下行。总体来看，当前各产区新货供应有限，部分贸易商仍维持较高报价。 随着节前补货接近尾声，市场整体成交活跃度一般。部分加工企业已陆续停工、转为消耗库存，全国 ...

果蔬品日报 | 2026-02-05 苹果果农出现让价，红枣客商积极出货 苹果观点 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9594元/吨，较前一日变动+109元/吨，幅度+1.15%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.00元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1594，较前一日变动-109；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1194，较前一日变动-109。 近期市场资讯，产区春节备货进入中后期，整体备货氛围仍显一般，礼盒类包装发货尚可。目前客商发前期包装 好货源为主，整体包装发运略有加快，主产区果农统货成交量一般，多以高次、三级果走货为主，部分果农急售 情绪加重。目前陕西果农货成交以少量两极货源为主，仍以客商发自存货源为主；甘肃产区静庄秦多以打包客商 货源发货为主，庆阳产区交易有所好转，走货尚可。山东产区成交一般，礼盒调货为主，少量75#货源、三级货源 出库为主。栖霞80#一二级片红果农货3.2-4.5元/斤，80#统货2.5-3元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [2] - Iron Ore: Short on rallies [5] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] 2. Core Views - The steel market is in the off - season with limited overall contradictions. The demand for steel products is weakening, inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - The iron ore market is cautious. Although the supply is at a high level and the downstream demand is fair, the demand support will weaken as winter storage approaches the end, and attention should be paid to subsequent negotiations and steel mill replenishment [3][4] - The coking coal and coke market has supply - side disturbances. Coke production is stable, but demand is restricted. Coking coal supply is tightening, and demand is mainly for on - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to iron water output and finished product prices [6][7] - The thermal coal market has weakening supply and demand near the Spring Festival. The medium - and long - term supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market declined yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,274 yuan/ton. The spot building materials market is in the off - season, with a national building materials transaction volume of 36,100 tons [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the off - season, the overall contradiction in the steel market is limited. The demand for rebar is weakened by the slow - down in market digestion and weak purchasing sentiment. The demand for hot - rolled coils has limited actual pulling effect. The steel inventory is accumulating before the festival, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly increasing [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore price fluctuated slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotation enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.034 million tons, a 14% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly this period. Australian shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The arrival volume of imported iron ore remained stable at a high level. The molten iron output is at a medium - high level in the same period, and the downstream demand is fair. The total inventory of 15 ports increased slightly, and steel mill inventories continued to grow. There is uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. As winter storage for steel mills approaches the end, the demand support will weaken [3][4] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal futures main contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, and the coke main contract closed at 1,770 yuan/ton. The coking coal auction prices showed mixed trends, and the market sentiment was average. Coking plants are mainly in normal production, with a good shipment enthusiasm and low inventory. Some coking plants want to raise prices further. Steel mills' purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and speculative demand is weak. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is in the range of 1,030 - 1,040 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coke, after the first round of price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, and production remains stable. However, due to the weakening of the terminal market, steel transactions have shrunk, prices have declined, and molten iron output has been suppressed. Steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. For coking coal, domestic coal mines are gradually entering the holiday period, and the supply is tightening. Coking enterprises' replenishment is almost complete, and the market is mainly for on - demand procurement [7] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weak. Long - term agreement shipments are stable, but overall demand is declining as factories go on holiday and pre - Spring Festival replenishment is almost over. Some coal mines have sales difficulties and inventory pressure. At ports, the market is quiet, and prices are stable. The import market is relatively strong, and there is an expected reduction in future imports [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Near the Spring Festival, both supply and demand of thermal coal are weakening, and coal prices are fluctuating. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pattern remains loose, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost - side disturbances in the propylene market have intensified, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the demand side. The main drivers in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure [1][2] - The supply of propylene has limited growth, with some PDH plants under maintenance and some restarted but not fully loaded. Downstream demand has rigid support, but as propylene prices rise, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The cost side has increased volatility [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6353 yuan/ton (+124), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6430 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is 137 yuan/ton (-124), the Shandong basis is 77 yuan/ton (-114), the operating rate is 70% (-1%), the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha is 251 US dollars/ton (-2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 110 US dollars/ton (+4), the import profit is - 442 yuan/ton (-53), and the in - plant inventory is 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (+1.29%), the production profit is - 230 yuan/ton (+40); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 73% (+0%), the production profit is - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (-1%), the production profit is 951 yuan/ton (-7); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-5%), the production profit is 1048 yuan/ton (-58); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 84% (+3%), the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 69% (-6%), the production profit is - 857 yuan/ton (-107); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+3%), the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: Some PDH plants such as Juzhengyuan Phase II, Jinneng Phase II, and Zhongjing continue to be under maintenance. Some plants have restarted but the supply increase of propylene is still limited. Attention should be paid to the maintenance dynamics of major PDH plants in the later stage [2] - **Demand side**: Downstream rigid demand support continues. However, as propylene prices reach high levels, downstream costs are significantly pressured, and demand follow - up may be limited. The operating rates of downstream industries show mixed trends [2] - **Cost side**: International oil prices have rebounded and then fluctuated, and the external propane market has also rebounded. The cost side of propylene has increased volatility in the short term [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Inter - period**: No strategy - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [3]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, a private large refinery's reforming fluidized bed had a malfunction on Wednesday, and its impact on pure benzene production capacity should be monitored. Port inventory slightly decreased at the beginning of this week, with low downstream pick - up volume but a slower arrival rhythm. Downstream, styrene's start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, while CPL's start - up rate is further decreasing, and aniline, phenol, and adipic acid's start - up rates remain high. Domestic pure benzene start - up rate is still low, and there is a possibility of the US increasing tariffs on South Korea, which might lead to increased pressure on South Korea to ship pure benzene to China [2]. - For styrene, the lowest point of domestic start - up rate may have passed, with Sinochem Quanzhou restarting and Tianjin Bohua having a restart expectation. Styrene's port inventory increased again at the beginning of the week and is entering the seasonal pre - holiday inventory rebuilding cycle. The start - up rates of EB downstream industries have peaked and declined, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products has been relieved [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 30 yuan/ton (+1), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 95 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene's main basis is 143 yuan/ton (+24 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 185 US dollars/ton (+16 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 184 US dollars/ton (+18 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 100.0 US dollars/ton (+1.1 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene's non - integrated production profit is 614 yuan/ton (+51 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Inventory and Start - up Rates - Pure benzene's port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.00 tons), and its start - up rate is low [1][2]. - Styrene's East China port inventory is 108,600 tons (+8,000 tons), East China commercial inventory is 60,800 tons (- 1,500 tons), and the start - up rate is 69.3% (- 0.4%) [1]. 4. Styrene's Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 59 yuan/ton (- 139 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 391 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS start - up rate is 53.26% (- 5.45%), PS start - up rate is 55.60% (- 1.70%), and ABS start - up rate is 66.10% (- 0.70%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene's Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 880 yuan/ton (- 15), phenol - ketone production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 1134 yuan/ton (- 107), and adipic acid production profit is - 309 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Caprolactam start - up rate is 73.57% (- 2.60%), phenol start - up rate is 88.00% (+2.50%), aniline start - up rate is 88.53% (+0.92%), and adipic acid start - up rate is 68.50% (- 0.60%) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Jiaomei**: With the approaching Spring Festival, the supply of coking coal has decreased, and coal mines are reluctant to lower prices. However, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the price fluctuation is small. The market is in a wait - and - see state. The current basis indicates a premium of the spot price over the futures price. The total inventory has decreased compared to last week. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has changed from net short to net long. Considering that some steel mills have slightly limited production and some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short term [2][3]. - **Jiaotan**: The coking coal auction market has improved, and most coking enterprises are in normal production. But downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, and coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing. The current basis indicates a discount of the spot price to the futures price. The total inventory has decreased compared to last week. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has increased net long positions. As some steel mills have completed inventory replenishment and the steel market is unlikely to improve before the Spring Festival, the price of coke is expected to remain stable in the short term [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Jiaomei** - **Fundamentals**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of coking coal in the main production areas has decreased, and coal mines are reluctant to lower prices. However, downstream procurement sentiment is poor, and the price adjustment is small, with a wait - and - see market attitude [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1230, and the basis is 21, indicating that the spot price has a premium over the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coking enterprises is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons compared to last week. Among them, the port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; the independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; the steel mill inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week [2][19][23][28]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has changed from net short to net long [2][3]. - **Expectation**: Due to some steel mills' limited production and some coking enterprises' completed winter storage, the demand for coking coal is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include the slowdown of raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. **Jiaotan** - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal auction market has improved, and most coking enterprises are in normal production. But downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak, coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is slightly loose [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 140, indicating that the spot price has a discount to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of steel mills, ports, and independent coking enterprises is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week. Among them, the port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week; the independent coking enterprise inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week; the steel mill inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [6][19][23][28]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. The main position has increased net long positions [6][7]. - **Expectation**: As some steel mills have completed inventory replenishment and the steel market is unlikely to improve before the Spring Festival, the price of coke is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partially over - drawn inventory replenishment demand [9]. **Other Data** - **Washing Plant**: No detailed data analysis provided for washing plant raw coal inventory, refined coal inventory, and refined coal production. - **Coke Oven**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45]. - **Production**: No detailed analysis provided for daily and monthly coke production, blast furnace operating rate, and hot metal production. **Price** - **Imported Coking Coal**: The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on February 4, 2026, including the prices and price changes of different varieties and brands at different ports [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The outlooks range from narrow or wide fluctuations to high-level oscillations, with some commodities showing potential for price increases or being affected by specific news events [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Outlook**: Expected to experience a tug-of-war between expectations and realities, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rose slightly, with the I2605 contract closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%. Spot prices for most imported and domestic ores increased slightly, while some remained unchanged. Basis and spread values showed minor fluctuations [4]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide fluctuations [2][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for RB2605 and HC2605 rose slightly, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with minor price adjustments in a few areas. Basis and spread values also showed minor fluctuations [7]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data for January 29th showed mixed trends. Some steel product prices and production volumes had year-on-year changes.必和必拓's first-half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted price cuts in some contracts. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts showed small increases. Spot prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had some adjustments, and various price spreads also changed [12]. - **News**: The proportion of coal-fired power generation fixed costs recovered through capacity tariffs will be increased. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices and procurement data were reported, and electricity prices in some regions changed. South Africa's manganese ore exports increased in December 2025 [11][13]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate at high levels [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for JM2605 and J2605 rose significantly, with trading volumes and open interest showing increases. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some price increases. Basis and spread values showed significant changes [14]. - **News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices decreased slightly. Coking coal online auctions had a 26% failure rate, with an average premium of 19.33 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [16]. Thermal Coal - **Outlook**: Indonesian production cut news has stimulated the import market, but domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed some fluctuations, with some prices remaining unchanged and others decreasing [19]. - **News**: The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity tariff mechanism. The North Port market sentiment was slightly stronger, but trading was light. Indonesian coal production cuts may support low-calorie coal prices, but the actual scale is yet to be confirmed [20]. Logs - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise slightly [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for log contracts showed small increases, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices for most log varieties remained stable, with some showing minor price increases [21]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [23]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 (slightly bullish) [24].

2026 年 02 月 05 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260205 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260205 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | ୧୧୧୦ | ୧୧୦୦ | 60 | PF03-04 | -70 | -54 | -16 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6630 | 6554 | 76 | PF04-05 | 0 | 22 | -22 | | | 短纤2605 | ୧୧30 | 6532 | 68 | PF主力基差 | -55 | 6 | -61 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 167741 | 236959 | -69218 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6,575 | 6, 560 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 113875 | 129379 | -15504 | 短纤产销率 | 57% | 57% | 0% | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1： 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2603 | 3324 | 3361 | 3384 | 3311 | 1.69 | 14.85 | | BU2606 | 3320 | 3359 | 3383 | 3305 | 1.88 | 3.54 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 现货市场方面，华北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格均出现上涨，其余地 区沥青现货价格大体企稳 ...