Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, with steel prices oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of building materials have improved, while strip products need to reduce production to resolve contradictions. The short - term price will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support should be observed [1]. - The supply - demand of iron ore has weakened marginally, and ore prices will oscillate widely. Although there is a downward pressure on prices due to supply and demand, the limited arrival volume restricts the downward space, and future iron - water production and downstream inventory changes should be noted [3]. - The pressure of double - coking warehouse receipts is emerging, and the prices will oscillate weakly. The supply pressure of coking coal has been relieved, and the demand for coke needs attention due to factors such as steel mill profits and power - coal price fluctuations [4]. - The supply of thermal coal in the production area is tight, and coal prices have risen again. In the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly, and in the long - term, overall consumption and supply should be monitored [6]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures oscillated weakly, and spot trading was average with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Building material production and sales decreased, and inventory continued to decline, while strip products faced high - inventory and high - production problems [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures oscillated strongly, and spot prices fluctuated slightly with less trading volume. The supply is high, inventory is increasing, and there is a seasonal weakening expectation for iron - water. However, the limited arrival volume restricts the downward space of prices [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Double - Coking - **Market Analysis**: Double - coking futures oscillated weakly, with a significant decline in the coking - coal main contract. The supply of coking coal has improved, and the demand for coke is affected by steel mill profits and other factors [4]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: Due to factors such as safety inspections in production areas, coal prices have risen by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. There are different views on the port market, and the advantage of imported coal still exists [6]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: In the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly, and in the long - term, overall consumption and supply should be monitored [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PG main contract shows a relatively strong performance. The domestic chemical market remains firm, and there are expectations of a peak - season uptick in the civil gas sector, but the market valuation is on the high side. The international propane market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to weather conditions and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4] 3. Summary According to the Report Content 3.1 Daily Changes - In terms of civil gas on Tuesday, prices in East China were 4335 (-29), in Shandong 4380 (-20), and in South China 4345 (-45). The price of ether - post - carbon - four was 4590 (-80). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -60 (-14) and a 12 - 01 month - spread of 81 (-8). FEI was 510.26 (+7.26) and CP was 492.18 (+9.18) dollars per ton [4] 3.2 Weekly Views - The PG main contract was on a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month - spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), South China at 4460 (+10), and ether - post - carbon - four at 4630 (+130). The overseas paper - based futures rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month - spread strengthened, and the domestic - overseas price difference weakened. The PG - CP reached 128 (-9), and the PG - FEI reached 111 (-2). The discount strengthened. The East China propane arrival discount was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively. The freight rate weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level for the year. The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong improved slightly, the profit of alkylation units deteriorated, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. Domestic production decreased slightly, the arrival of goods was limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarting and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei shutting down for maintenance [4]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 19 日 铝：小幅企稳 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21465 | -260 | -200 | 485 | 850 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21510 | - | l | - | - | | | | LME铝3M收益价 | 2790 | -17 | -90 | 44 | 159 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 259462 | -16957 | 7 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The US Patent and Trademark Office modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, targeting foreign - affiliated companies, and some Chinese firms received notices. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that it violates international obligations and discriminates against Chinese enterprises, and will take measures to safeguard their rights [2] - In October, the unemployment rate of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24 (excluding students) was 17.3%, 7.2% for those aged 25 - 29, and 3.8% for those aged 30 - 59 [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the trading and intraday closing transaction fees of the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract to 0.012% of the trading volume starting from November 20 [2] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 15,799,450 tons, a decrease of 20,040 tons from the previous Monday due to a decline in arrivals and unloading [2] - An 1.1 - million - ton granular urea plant in Iran's Hengam Petrochemical Project started trial production and is expected to be officially put into operation by the end of December. Iran's annual urea production capacity is about 8.9 million tons, and exports in the first nine months of this year dropped 34% due to production issues [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and plastics [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 3.40%, precious metals 28.63%, oilseeds 10.08%, non - ferrous metals 23.43%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.73%, energy 2.92%, chemicals 10.93%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products 4.05% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The report shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions for November 12 - 18 [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.81 | - 0.38 | 17.54 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.30 | - 0.28 | 11.85 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.65 | - 1.56 | 16.09 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.17 | - 2.46 | 24.89 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.83 | - 3.26 | 12.51 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.72 | 0.09 | 29.26 | | | German DAX | - 1.85 | - 3.36 | 16.30 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 3.22 | - 7.08 | 22.08 | | | FTSE 100 | - 1.27 | - 1.70 | 16.88 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | - 0.17 | - 0.39 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.03 | - 0.14 | - 0.58 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.01 | - 0.05 | - 0.47 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.57 | 0.27 | 2.24 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.30 | - 0.30 | - 15.61 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.55 | 1.60 | 54.97 | | | LME Copper | - 0.75 | - 1.78 | 21.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 1.89 | - 3.36 | 26.25 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.06 | - 0.14 | - 8.19 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 28.33 | 28.99 | [6]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-19 寒潮影响需求，市场氛围平淡 市场分析 1、11月18日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3032元/吨，较昨日结算价下降11元/吨，跌幅 0.36%；持仓191962手，环比下跌2515手，成交157143手，环比上涨1104手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3700元/吨；山东，3020—3520元/吨；华南，3100—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 沥青盘面维持低位震荡态势，原油成本端表现偏弱，自身基本面缺乏利好刺激，虽有一定底部信号但反弹动力不 足。现货方面，昨日西北以及东北地区沥青现货价格相对稳定，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。随 着国内寒潮来临，沥青刚性需求整体表现欠佳，市场交投氛围平淡，多数区域主营炼厂下调沥青结算价格。目前 来看，沥青市场驱动依然偏弱。 策略 单边：中性，等待市场底部夯实 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. The processing margin remains at a low level. It is expected that the PTA spot price will mainly oscillate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in the equipment [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated and declined, and the spot basis continued to decline. In the long - term, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol. In the near - term, it has improved due to a reduction in some supplies. The short - term price center of ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly, and there is continuous upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the outflow speed of warehouse receipts in northern Jiangsu [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No content provided in the given text. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: - Fundamental: Futures oscillated down, spot negotiation general, basis slightly stronger, some polyester factories made bids, and a major supplier sold goods. Transaction prices and basis for different months were given [5]. - Basis: Spot price was 4605, 01 - contract basis was - 65, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: PTA factory inventory was 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, changing from long to short [5]. - Expectation: Short - term price to follow cost side, basis to fluctuate, focus on equipment changes [5]. - **MEG**: - Fundamental: Price center oscillated down, basis declined, night - session opened slightly higher and then weakened, and some traders actively bought far - month futures [7]. - Basis: Spot price was 3955, 01 - contract basis was 48, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East China was 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [7]. - Expectation: Long - term inventory pressure exists, short - term price to operate weakly, focus on supply changes and warehouse receipt outflow [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content provided in the given text. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were presented, including PTA capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory. For example, in November 2025, PTA capacity was 9472, production was 638, and the ending inventory was 296 [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data from January 2024 to December 2025 were provided, covering EG production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory. For instance, in November 2025, EG production was 58, total supply was 244, and port inventory change was 12 [12]. - **Price and Margin Data**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the margins of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products also changed. For example, the PTA processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 31.70 yuan/ton [13].

2025 年 11 月 19 日 LPG：供需预期收紧，短期相对抗跌 丙烯：现货走势偏强，盘面底部震荡 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,351 | -1.34% | 4,395 | 1.01% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,290 | -0.72% | 4,314 | 0.56% | | | PL2601 | 5,826 | -1.09% | 5,839 | 0.22% | | | PL2602 | 5,816 | -1.67% | 5,832 | 0.28% | | | PL2603 | 5,816 | -1.64% | 5,827 | 0.19% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2512 | 76,398 | -698 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - PX: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices [2] - PTA: Sideways volatile market, do not chase high prices [2] - MEG: Supply pressure remains, trend is weak [2] 2. Core Views - PX: Overseas gasoline is in short supply, inventories are at low levels, and the strong cracking spread may last until the end of November, driving PX valuation. However, downstream marginal demand is weakening, and supply is at a high level, so the upside space may be limited. Do not chase high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage operations for the monthly spread [9]. - PTA: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high prices. Domestic e - commerce orders for weaving have decreased, new orders are weakening, and the operating rate has dropped. Polyester load has decreased in the short - term but is expected to recover. PTA load has been adjusted, and there are plans for future maintenance and restarts. It is recommended to maintain 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage operations [10]. - MEG: The medium - term trend is weak. Short positions can be established on rallies, and reverse arbitrage operations for the monthly spread should be maintained. Supply is expected to return, imports are relatively high, inventories are increasing, and there is a supply - demand surplus in December, so there is insufficient driving force for a unilateral rise [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rebounded at the end of the session. PX prices fell today, with no transactions in the 1 - 2 month negotiations. Platts - assessed Asian PX prices declined, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed. South Korea's PX exports increased in October, with China being the largest buyer [5][7]. - **MEG**: A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia is expected to restart soon. There are also maintenance and restart plans for other ethylene glycol plants in Jiangsu and Sichuan. The planned arrival volume at major ports from November 17th to 23rd is about 111,000 tons [7][8]. - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are average, with an average production - sales ratio of 45%. The production - sales ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is weak, with an average of 30% - 40% [8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: 0 The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6768 | 4670 | 3907 | 6188 | 458.8 | | Change | - 28 | - 22 | - 31 | - 42 | - 0.4 | | Change Rate | - 0.41% | - 0.47% | - 0.79% | - 0.67% | - 0.09% | | Monthly Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | - 8 | - 56 | - 90 | - 42 | 1.4 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | - 24 | - 64 | - 85 | - 46 | 0.7 | | Change | 16 | 8 | - 5 | 4 | 0.7 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 827 | 4605 | 3955 | 568.5 | 63.55 | | Previous Day's Price | 831 | 4619 | 3975 | 571.25 | 63.66 | | Change | - 4 | - 14 | - 20 | - 2.75 | - 0.12 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 254.67 | 189.82 | 193.78 | 45.72 | - 4.34 | | Previous Day's Price | 256.67 | 147.41 | 206.69 | 74.51 | - 4.34 | | Change | - 2 | 42.41 | - 12.91 | - 28.8 | 0 | [4]

二、能源与航运期货 原油市场呈现上行趋势，油价攀升至盘中高点，WTI原油价格升破每桶60美元关口[7]。 来源：喜娜AI 美国至11月14日当周API原油库存增加444.8万桶，前值为增加130万桶，库存增幅超预期[8]。 此外，阿根廷政府宣布将取消常规石油的出口税，可能对国际原油供应格局产生影响[9]。 三、金融期货 恒指期货夜盘表现积极，收涨0.48%，报26039.10点，高水109.07点[10]。 一、贵金属期货 现货黄金价格表现强劲，日内多次突破关键点位，先后突破4070美元/盎司和4080美元/盎司关口，日内 涨幅分别达到0.04%、0.65%和近1%[1][2][3][4]。 纽约期金同步走高，同样突破4070美元/盎司和4080美元/盎司，日内涨幅分别为0.08%和0.13%[5][6]。 美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）宣布，本周将开始发布交易商持仓报告，首份报告预计将于当地时 间周三下午发布，市场将密切关注持仓变化对期货市场的指引[11]。 四、农产品期货 农产品期货中，豆粕连续主力合约日内下跌1%，现报3026.00元/吨[12]。 纯碱连续主力合约同样走弱，日内跌2%，现报1195 ...