期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而需求表现偏弱，基本面表现不佳，淡季钢价继续 承压，相对利好的是政策预期，预计钢价延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，产业矛盾未加剧，价格延续低位震荡，但 产量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，一旦其走弱则供需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that choosing the right trading app is crucial for profitability in futures trading, with Sina Finance App being highlighted as the best option due to its comprehensive features in market data, news, and trading capabilities [1][6]. Group 1: Sina Finance App - Market Dimension: Covers over 40 global markets and data from more than 80 exchanges, with a refresh rate of 0.03 seconds, significantly faster than the industry average. It offers over 20 technical indicators for free and supports custom price alerts [2][7]. - News Dimension: Leverages over 20 years of media experience to provide 24/7 millisecond-level updates on macro policies and industry dynamics, with breaking news reaching users 5-10 seconds ahead of competitors. It features real-time Q&A in futures live broadcasts and allows users to link news directly to corresponding contract K-lines [2][7]. - Trading Dimension: Directly connects with 15 leading futures companies, enabling online account opening in 3 minutes with just an ID and facial recognition. The process is 60% faster than the industry average, supports cloud-based conditional orders, and offers a simulation account with 1 million for beginners [2][7]. Group 2: Other Trading Apps - Wenhua Finance: A professional tool platform with a high entry barrier, requiring paid subscriptions for foreign market data and monthly service cards for real trading. It lacks comprehensive macroeconomic analysis, making it less suitable for investors seeking cross-market insights [3][8]. - Boyi Master: An established market analysis tool that connects to Reuters and Bloomberg data sources but has a 10-15 minute delay for foreign market data unless paid for. It primarily reprints third-party news, lacking original analysis, and has limited trading functionalities [4][9]. - Tonghuashun Futures: A popular platform with broad coverage but experiences a 0.5-second delay for domestic futures and lower update frequency for foreign data. It lacks in-depth analysis from industry experts and has stability issues in its trading module [5][10]. Group 3: Comparative Summary - Overall, the four main futures trading apps each have their strengths and weaknesses: Wenhua Finance is professional but has a high entry barrier; Boyi Master is basic but lacks standout features; Tonghuashun Futures is broad but lacks depth in futures analysis. In contrast, Sina Finance App provides seamless integration of comprehensive market data, timely news, and efficient trading, making it the optimal choice for both novice and professional investors [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that choosing the right trading app is crucial for profitability in futures trading, with Sina Finance APP being highlighted as the best option due to its comprehensive market coverage, fast information updates, and convenient trading features [1][6]. Group 1: Market Data Comparison - Sina Finance APP covers over 40 global markets and more than 80 exchanges, providing real-time data refresh rates of 0.03 seconds, significantly surpassing the industry average [2][7]. - Wenhua Finance offers professional technical analysis tools but requires paid subscriptions for foreign market data, making it less accessible for average investors [2][7]. - Boyi Master provides accurate international gold quotes but has a default delay of 10-15 minutes for overseas market data, requiring additional payment for real-time data [2][7]. - Tonghuashun Futures has a wide coverage of products but experiences a delay of about 0.5 seconds for domestic commodity futures, with lower update frequency for foreign market data compared to Sina Finance [2][7]. Group 2: Information Comparison - Sina Finance APP leverages over 20 years of media experience to provide 24/7 millisecond-level updates on macro policies and industry dynamics, with breaking news reaching users 5-10 seconds faster than competitors [3][8]. - Wenhua Finance focuses on futures position data but lacks sufficient macroeconomic analysis, failing to meet cross-market information needs [3][8]. - Boyi Master primarily reprints third-party news and lacks original analysis, with a news update timeliness lagging over 30% behind Sina Finance [3][8]. - Tonghuashun Futures has a rich database of financial news but lacks depth in the futures vertical, missing insights from frontline analysts [3][8]. Group 3: Trading Comparison - Sina Finance APP connects directly with 15 leading futures companies, allowing online account opening in just 3 minutes with minimal steps, reducing the process by 60% compared to the industry average [4][9]. - Wenhua Finance requires users to switch to partner futures company apps for account opening, resulting in a fragmented process, with high annual fees for professional trading services [4][9]. - Boyi Master supports only a limited number of futures companies and lacks an internal simulation trading module, making it challenging for beginners [4][9]. - Tonghuashun Futures supports multiple futures companies but lacks connections with some leading institutions, leading to slightly lower stability in trading modules [4][9]. Conclusion - Overall, while Wenhua Finance is noted for its professionalism but has high barriers to entry, Boyi Master offers basic functionality without standout features, and Tonghuashun Futures has broad coverage but lacks depth. Sina Finance APP stands out for its seamless integration of market data, information, and trading, making it the optimal choice for both novice and professional futures traders [5][9].

期货研究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 铂：震荡偏上 钯：区间震荡 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：金十数据） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 583. 95 | | 8. 80% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 573. 65 | | 12. 15% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2288. 00 | | 5. 84% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2280. 20 | | 6.57% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 452. 85 | | 6. 50% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货包金 | 415. 00 | | 2. 22% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1.772.50 | | 4. 54% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The A-share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs recently. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [3]. - The current ample liquidity supports the bond market, but supply concerns are constraining the performance of long-term bonds. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility, and the stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may not occur until the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, while cash-and-carry and curve strategies recommend focusing on positive spreads and steepening the yield curve, respectively [3]. - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to long volatility strategies [3]. Summary by Directory Financial Stock Index Futures - A-share index has rebounded continuously, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs recently. The RMB exchange rate has risen significantly, and core assets are expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding bull spread portfolios and build covered call portfolios on dips [3]. Bond Futures - Supply concerns and the strengthening of equities are pressuring bond futures. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility, and the stabilization or recovery of long-term bonds may not occur until the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and seeing, while cash-and-carry and curve strategies recommend focusing on positive spreads and steepening the yield curve, respectively [3]. Precious Metals - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical tensions in South America. It is recommended to pay attention to long volatility strategies [3]. Commodities Base Metals - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions. Copper prices have risen sharply, and it is recommended to hold long positions with caution. Zinc prices are rising, and it is recommended to hold long positions and continue holding cross-market arbitrage positions [3]. Ferrous Metals - Steel prices are expected to remain range-bound, with recommended trading ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Iron ore prices are supported by steel mill restocking expectations, and short-term range trading is recommended. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended [3]. Energy and Chemicals - PX and PTA are expected to be weak in the short term and are recommended to be bought at low levels in the medium term. Short fiber is expected to follow raw material prices, and it is recommended to short the processing margin on rallies. Ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure in January, and it is recommended to sell out-of-the-money call options and conduct reverse calendar spreads [3]. Agricultural Products - Sugar prices are expected to be weak on rebounds, and it is recommended to pay attention to resistance levels. Cotton prices are expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking. Apple prices are expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions with put option protection [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For rebar, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a downward - trending real estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset. For hot - rolled coils, with weakening supply and demand, inventory increase, and export difficulties, it should also be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak, with the real estate industry in a downward cycle; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3,290, with a basis of 186; bullish [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 294.19 tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year; bullish [2] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Likely Positive Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4] Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect; neutral [7] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3,250, with a basis of 2; neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 296.7 tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year; neutral [7] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coils' main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing; bullish [7] - **Likely Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10]

021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 一、行情回顾与后市展望 | | --- | | | | | | 表1：1月5日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | ...

2026 年 01 月 06 日 铜：做多情绪浓厚，价格持续上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,350 | 3.17% | 102650 | 1.28% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,088 | 5.03% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 357,332 | -237,346 | 643,459 | 25,716 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 37,338 | 25,402 | 339,000 | 3,352 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 90,282 | 8,507 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 142,550 | -2,775 | 22.90% | -1.02% | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 PVC：短期偏强，中期震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4469 | 4480 | 11 | -295 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 PVC 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【市场状况分析】 【现货消息】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即使存在部分装置检修和降负，其规模也有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临 高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后，而春节期 ...