焦炭：偏强震荡 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | | --- | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 1035 | 29.5 | 2.9% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1634. 5 | 19.5 | 1.2% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 542302 | 178776 | -39264 | | | | J2509 | 32559 | 25675 | -107 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 6 日 沥青：跌后盘整 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2018-3 2018-7 2018-11 2019-3 2019-7 2019-11 2020-3 2020-7 2020-11 2021-3 2021-7 2021-11 2022-3 2022-7 2022-11 2023-3 2023-7 2023-11 2024-3 2024-7 2024-11 2025-3 2025-7 吨 江苏 山东 BU厂库仓单 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,544 | -0. ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. For futures, the prices of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,885 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year), 13,880 yuan/ton (down 25 year - on - year), and 14,170 yuan/ton (down 15 year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,732 hands (down 9,396 from the previous day), 16,849 hands (down 1,854 from the previous day), and 6,879 hands (down 4,350 from the previous day) respectively. The open interests are 35,710 hands (down 2,540 from the previous day), 55,042 hands (up 2,723 from the previous day), and 40,487 hands (down 21 from the previous day) respectively [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 295 yuan/ton (up 105 year - on - year), 300 yuan/ton (up 75 year - on - year), and 10 yuan/ton (up 65 year - on - year) respectively. The spreads between contracts 9 - 11 and 11 - 1 are 5 yuan/ton (down 30 year - on - year) and - 290 yuan/ton (down 10 year - on - year) respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]

Core Points - The article outlines the futures trading management system of Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Co., Ltd, aimed at regulating futures investment and controlling associated risks [1][2] - The system applies to the company and its subsidiaries, focusing on hedging activities related to essential raw materials and commodities [1][2] - The primary goal is to manage price fluctuations in the spot market to reduce procurement costs and enhance company profitability [1] Summary by Sections Futures Trading Principles - Futures trading must comply with national laws and regulations, emphasizing risk prevention and ensuring the safety of fund operations [3] - The company is required to strictly control the scale of futures trading to avoid impacting normal operations and is prohibited from using raised funds for futures trading [3][4] Investment Authorization and Disclosure - Futures investment activities exceeding 10% of the latest audited net assets and over 10 million RMB require board approval and timely disclosure [2] - If the investment exceeds 30% of net assets and 50 million RMB, it must be approved by both the board and the shareholders' meeting, along with a special analysis report on necessity and feasibility [2][3] Risk Management and Reporting - A futures trading management team is established, responsible for risk management procedures, operational plans, and monitoring overall execution [4][5] - The team must provide risk analysis reports to the management and board, detailing trading authorizations, positions, and risk assessments [5] Personnel and Authorization - Personnel involved in futures trading must have written authorization, which includes trading and fund allocation permissions [4] - Any changes in personnel must be promptly communicated, and security measures like password changes must be implemented [4][5] Loss Control Measures - A stop-loss mechanism is in place, where losses reaching 15% of the board's authorized limit will trigger a liquidation of positions [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a recovery in the start - up rate but still at a relatively low level in recent years. Demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Cost support has weakened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In August, the domestic asphalt planned production is 241.3 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. Some refineries will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns this week [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Some areas' rainfall will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may narrow the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have fallen after rising, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plan will be released soon, which is more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. - Market outlook: It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract fell 1.68% to 3520 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3501 yuan/ton, the highest was 3538 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3838 to 208129 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 260 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6% [4]. - Downstream start - up rate: As of the week of August 1, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9%, and the new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 型班目 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/8/5 | 指标 | | 8月4日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 46 | 16 | 2500 2000 | ===== 19/20 | | ------ 20/21 ====- 21/22 =======22/23 | | | · 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 日照 | -104 -104 | -14 6 | 1000 -500 | | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -44 | 6 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | 张家港 | | | | | | 09/21 10/22 11/22 12/ ...

Group 1 - As of August 4, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decreased by 600 to 27,131 [1] - Yisheng Hainan is undergoing maintenance on its 2 million tons capacity, while Yisheng New Materials has temporarily reduced its output by 7.2 million tons, and Jiaxing Petrochemical may also undergo maintenance on its 2.2 million tons capacity [1] - The comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.51% as of July 31, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous period, with average terminal weaving order days increasing by 0.39 days to 7.33 days [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures noted that PTA prices have fallen to support levels, with processing fees remaining low around 100, and significant maintenance at large facilities has offset the recent production of 1.6 million tons at Hailun Petrochemical [2] - The spot trading remains relatively low, with basis dropping to a discount of around 10, while downstream operating rates have decreased to 88.1%, leading to a slowdown in purchasing rhythm [2] - Wenkang Futures indicated that while maintenance volumes are expected to increase in August, new facilities are coming online, leading to expectations of continued inventory accumulation and limited processing fee space [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", while some are rated as "Bearish" [1][2] Core Views - The supply surplus pressure of crude oil is rising, and the oil price is falling [1][3] - LPG follows the decline of oil price [1][9] - For L, the number of restarted devices is increasing, and it is cautiously bearish [1][15] - PP has weak supply and demand, and short positions should be held [1][22] - PVC's trading returns to the weak fundamentals, and it is cautiously bearish [1][29] - PX has a tight supply - demand balance, but there is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad, and it is cautiously bearish [1][35] - PTA has a tight supply - demand balance expected to be loose, and it is cautiously bearish [1][39] - MEG has a tight supply - demand balance, but the macro - sentiment has faded, and it is cautiously bearish [1][43] - The spot price of glass is lowered, and the futures price continues to correct [1][47] - The inventory of soda ash turns from decreasing to increasing, and the futures price center falls [1][52] - The registered warehouse receipts of caustic soda increase, and the futures price center moves down [1][57] - Methanol's supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, and there is no unexpected news, and it is cautiously bearish [1][62] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.54%, Brent down 1.31%, and SC down 2.14% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half. The oil price center still has room to decline, and the key support level is around $60 [6] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. US crude oil production increased in May. Demand in Shandong independent refineries decreased. US commercial crude oil and strategic reserve increased, while gasoline inventory decreased and distillate inventory increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [500 - 515] [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 4, the PG main contract closed at 3,921 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. The supply increased slightly, and the demand from downstream industries was mixed. The inventory situation was complex [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3800 - 3900] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,279 yuan/ton, and the North China basis was - 89 yuan/ton [17] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks. Most devices have restarted, and the supply pressure has increased. The downstream is in the off - season, and the restocking power is insufficient [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,074 yuan/ton, and the East China basis was - 6 yuan/ton [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. The inventory of polyolefin petrochemicals of two major companies has risen, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The production capacity will be released in the third quarter [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread [26] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,981 yuan/ton, and the Changzhou basis was - 121 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has improved, but the supply will increase in August due to less maintenance and new capacity release. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [32] PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton [36] - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing but still high. There is no unexpected bullish news at home and abroad [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities during callbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6810] [38] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton [40] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase due to new device production. The demand from downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand balance in August is expected to be loose [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing margin. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4730] [42] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, but the arrival and import volumes are still low. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell put options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4420] [46] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market price was lowered, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no unexpected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI has declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is structurally differentiated, and the inventory has decreased mainly due to transfer [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1050 - 1100] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda ash spot price was lowered, and the futures price was differentiated [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and short - selling funds have increased. Supply has decreased slightly, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory has started to increase again [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the price to correct [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The flake caustic soda spot price was raised, and the futures price was differentiated [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply decreased due to summer maintenance, and some downstream alumina plants resumed production. Inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the macro - policy expectation has cooled down [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided [61] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices are restarting or increasing loads, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is good but expected to weaken. Inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously (partially close), sell call options under low - volatility conditions, and conduct a MA9 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of MA [2365 - 2395] [64]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/04 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/07/2 8 | 801 | 2397 | 2400 | 2540 | 2530 | 2490 | 2640 | 276 | 333 | 31 | -17 | -1237 | | 2025/07/2 9 | 801 | 2392 | 2408 | 2520 | 2520 | 2490 | 2625 | 276 | 333 | 27 | -18 | -1237 | | 2025/07/3 0 | 801 | 2407 | 2423 | 2520 | 253 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - inch Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand, price trends, and other factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton &棉纱 - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded today, with the near - month contract stronger and the January contract weaker. The 9 - 1 and 9 - 11 spreads also rebounded. In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profit was under pressure. New - year Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation. Operationally, it's advisable to wait and see or maintain a positive spread strategy for 9 - 11 [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. The rainfall in Guangxi was good in July but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of 25/26 sugar production. Overall, US sugar is trending down, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. Operationally, wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The inventory of cold - stored apples is low, and traders are eager to sell. The price of early - maturing apples dropped after a high opening. The market focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Operationally, wait and see [4] 20 - inch Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU fluctuated strongly, NR weakly, and BR continued to fall. The supply of natural rubber is entering the high - yield period, and the demand for tires is weak. Natural rubber inventory decreased, while synthetic rubber inventory increased. Operationally, wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to fall today. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, supply is loose, and demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations. Operationally, wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price rebounded. The supply of domestic coniferous logs is expected to remain low, and the demand is good. The inventory is low, and the spot price is expected to rebound. Operationally, maintain a long - biased strategy [8]