Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The output of domestic synthetic rubber is expected to increase month - on - month as most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and some plants are operating at increased loads. The br2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,250 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - In terms of raw materials, although there are planned overhauls of butadiene plants in October, the supply of butadiene remains abundant due to the resumption of previously under - loaded plants and imports. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly during the holiday due to maintenance, but it is expected to rise significantly this week as the plants resume operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 10,780 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 29,075, down 2,938; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 3,070 tons, up 200 tons [2]. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers decreased, with the price from齐鲁石化 at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from 大庆石化 at 11,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and from 茂名石化 at 11,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 370 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Brent crude oil was at $63.32 per barrel, up $0.59; WTI crude oil was at $59.49 per barrel, up $0.59; the Northeast Asian ethylene price was $785 per ton, unchanged; the CFR Japan naphtha price was $566.75 per ton, down $10; the CFR China butadiene intermediate price was $1,020 per ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 155,400 tons, up 100 tons; the butadiene capacity utilization rate was 67.37%, up 0.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,750 tons, unchanged [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, up 6,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.41%, down 3.31 percentage points; the production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 544 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points; the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days [2]. Industry News - From October 9th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased significantly compared with the previous period and the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises also decreased. Some enterprises carried out maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 800,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]. - In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly. The capacity utilization rate was 69.91%, down 0.49 percentage points from the previous period and up 12.16 percentage points from the same period last year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, attention should be paid to the low - level support around 6891 and the pressure of the five - day moving average around 7034. In the long run, PE supply may increase significantly. The downstream shed film demand is gradually reaching its annual peak, but the current performance of agricultural film orders and start - up is not as good as in previous years. Due to the continuous Sino - US trade dispute, market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mainly decline during the day [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene (daily, yuan/ton) is 6918, down 65; the 1 - month contract is 6918, down 65; the 5 - month contract is 6949, down 80; the 9 - month contract is 6997, down 74. The trading volume (daily, lots) is 266284, down 13738, and the open interest (daily, lots) is 577097, up 12312. The 1 - 5 spread is - 31, up 15. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 417937, up 3411; the short positions are 491357, up 8140; the net long positions are - 73420, down 4729 [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 7060.87, down 28.7; in East China is 7240.71, down 15. The basis is 77.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 61.47, down 1.11; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) is 566.75, down 10. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) is 781, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 786, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE start - up rate (daily, %) is 83.95, up 1.85 [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film (weekly, %) is 52.89, up 0.52; for pipes (weekly, %) is 31.67, down 0.5; for agricultural film (weekly, %) is 35.61, up 2.75 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) is 8.03, up 0.37; the 40 - day historical volatility is 7.24, up 0.21. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene (daily, %) is 10.68, up 0.35; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.68, up 0.34 [2] Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's total polyethylene production was 66.42 tons, up 3.04% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, up 1.86 percentage points. From September 26th to October 9th, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.24% compared with the previous period, and the agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%. As of October 9th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 48.86 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. As of September 30th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 38.27 tons, down 16.50%. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.37% to 7414 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 172.86 yuan/ton to - 221 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.30% to 6564 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 14.29 yuan/ton to 570.29 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the week of 20250929 - 0930, the caustic soda futures price showed a narrow - range consolidation with a weekly increase of 0.12%, and the spot price remained stable. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - stocking situation of downstream alumina plants and the enterprise inventory data after the National Day [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range oscillation this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract caustic soda 2601 (SH601) rose 3 yuan/ton to 2531 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase, with a high of 2536 yuan/ton, a low of 2486 yuan/ton. The position was 83,862 lots, a decrease of 24,858 lots from last week, and the trading volume decreased by 1.112 million lots to 504,382 lots [2]. - **Variety Market**: Most caustic soda prices declined this week, the near - month contracts performed slightly stronger, and the position of the main contract SH601 continued to decrease [2]. - **Associated Market**: The trading volume of call options for the caustic soda 01 contract was less than that of put options this week. The strike prices of call options with large trading volumes were mostly concentrated in the 2680 - 3040 point range, and put options were concentrated in the 2240 - 2640 point range [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: According to Shanghai Steel Union data, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained at 800 yuan/ton, and the liquid caustic soda price in Jiangsu remained at 940 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: This week, the caustic soda futures price had a narrow - range adjustment, the spot price remained stable, and the basis widened slightly. On one hand, the futures price oscillated and sorted out; on the other hand, the spot price remained stable with minor adjustments in some regions [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was stable with a weak trend. Before the holiday, the supply - demand fluctuations were relatively limited, and the purchase price of the main downstream was adjusted to 740 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, the daily line of the main caustic soda contract SH601 had a narrow - range adjustment, the trading volume decreased significantly compared with last week, and it was currently in a downward channel [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook This week, the caustic soda futures price oscillated and sorted out, and the price strengthened on the last trading day before the holiday. The position of the main contract decreased, and the overall position remained below 100,000 lots. In terms of demand, the receiving volume of the main downstream liquid caustic soda decreased, and the overall demand was average. Enterprises also loosened their prices to destock, and the prices in some regions were under downward pressure. The profit of the main downstream alumina shrank, and the non - aluminum demand was also lower than expected, presenting a weak reality pattern. Future attention should be paid to whether the inventory - stocking demand before the commissioning of new alumina production capacity can be realized and the impact of the overall enterprise inventory change after the National Day [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, and stainless steel prices are expected to continue weak operation [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis of Nickel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,190 yuan/ton and closed at 121,410 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 149,002 (-10,068) lots, and the open interest was 74,700 (-3,140) lots. Influenced by the US president's remarks, there are concerns about the escalation of Sino - US tariff friction, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened low and moved low, and the LME inventory has reached the highest level since October 17, 2022 [1] Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market has a fair trading range, and prices are stable. The domestic 1.3% nickel ore is quoted at CIF44 without a deal. In the Philippines, the tender result of 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen Mine in Zambales is pending. The price of downstream nickel - iron has declined, and iron plants are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some northern domestic factories are preparing for "winter storage". In Indonesia, the nickel ore supply is loose, with the October (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price expected to rise by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium at +26 [1] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 123,600 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is fair, and the premium and discount of refined nickel are slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remains at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 25,272 (44) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 242,094 (4,716) tons [2] Group 4: Strategy of Nickel - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 5: Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Futures - On October 13, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,800 yuan/ton and closed at 12,655 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,989 (+134,394) lots, and the open interest was 176,416 (-4,171) lots. Similar to Shanghai nickel, affected by the US president's remarks, the overall trend of metal futures is weak, and stainless steel also opened low and moved low [3] Spot - Due to the sharp decline in the futures market and weak demand, market confidence is severely hit, and spot trading is light. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 13,150 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 13,100 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 480 - 780 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 951.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Group 6: Strategy of Stainless Steel - It is recommended to take a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall inventory increase of around 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month, significantly pressuring market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - PTA: Overnight crude oil tumbled last Friday but rebounded on Monday. PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated on the previous day, with a small decline in the end. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened. There were rumors that the 3 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy Phase 4 was planned to be put into operation in mid - October, and an old device would be temporarily shut down if the new one was commissioned [7]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday. The spot price opened lower and then slightly recovered, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. The overseas market center of ethylene glycol declined, and traders were the main participants in the trading [8]. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the PTA factory inventory was 4.22 days, a 0.47 - day increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [7]. - MEG: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the total inventory in East China was 445,100 tons, a 40,800 - ton increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Factors affecting PTA and MEG: - Bullish factors: Before the holiday, the polyester market had a booming sales under the combined positive effects of increased demand and rising oil prices. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester price remained stable. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning [9][10]. - Bearish factors: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China was gradually increasing its production to over 90%, after reducing production around October 7 [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides PTA supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides ethylene glycol supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. [14]. - Price Data: Shows price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from October 10 to October 13, 2025, as well as basis and profit data [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand margins of both rebar and iron ore are gradually weakening, putting significant pressure on the futures market. For rebar, the demand has declined, and the inventory has increased, while for iron ore, the short - term supply and demand situation has also shown signs of weakening [3][5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Futures**: The rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the reduction of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3103 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.35% from last week [5]. - **Spot**: The mainstream rebar prices in most regions decreased slightly, and the overall trading weakened. The national average rebar price dropped 25 yuan to 3263 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.27%, down 0.02% week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.55%, down 0.10% week - on - week. The average operating rate of 90 electric - arc furnace steel mills was 67.06%, up 1.19% week - on - week. The rebar weekly output decreased by 3.62 tons to 203.4 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.16 tons to 10.49 tons week - on - week, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 95.06 tons to 146.01 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [6]. - **Fundamentals - Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 57.39 tons to 659.64 tons, still at a low level in the same period [8]. - **Fundamentals - Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, with a premium of 147 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, 1 yuan wider than last week. The rebar basis is expected to shrink in the future [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: During the National Day, the decline in rebar apparent consumption and the increase in inventory were more significant than in previous years, and the supply - demand margin of rebar has weakened [8]. Iron Ore - **Futures**: The iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by the increase of long - position main players. As of Friday, it closed at 795.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton or 0.63% from last week [8]. - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties increased slightly, and the price of domestic iron concentrate remained stable. The overall trading was average [8]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: As of the 6th, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2825.9 tons, down 38.1 tons week - on - week. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2608.7 tons, up 248.2 tons week - on - week [8][9]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports was 327.0 tons, down 9.4 tons week - on - week. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 299.14 tons, up 0.33 tons week - on - week [9]. - **Fundamentals - Inventory**: As of the 9th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory continued to increase slightly to 14024.50 tons, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 tons to 9046.19 tons [9]. - **Fundamentals - Basis**: As of Friday, the optimal delivery product, Newman powder at Qingdao Port, was 830 yuan/ton, with a premium of 35 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, 3 yuan narrower than last week. The iron ore basis is expected to shrink in the future [9]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The short - term shipment of imported ore continues to decline slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to increase slightly next week. The supply - demand margin of iron ore has weakened, putting pressure on the market [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soybean (Bean 1) [1] - Report date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Report cycle: Daily report [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoint - Currently, domestic soybean prices are generally stable with a slight decline, while imported soybean prices are stabilizing and rising. Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise crushing profits have stabilized and rebounded. In the futures market, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures showed a strong trend throughout the day. In the short term, in an atmosphere where the overall spot price of soybeans is rising steadily, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures may continue to show a strong oscillatory trend [14]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract (A2511) of DCE Bean 1 futures oscillated strongly throughout the day. The opening price was 3930 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3984 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3975 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.17% from the previous day. The trading volume was 105,525 lots, the open interest was 137,560 lots, and the daily increase in positions was 951 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: The closing prices of contracts A2511, A2601, A2603, and A2605 were 3975 yuan/ton, 3973 yuan/ton, 3970 yuan/ton, and 4000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 46 yuan/ton (1.17%), 70 yuan/ton (1.79%), 67 yuan/ton (1.72%), and 65 yuan/ton (1.65%) respectively. The trading volumes were 105,525 lots, 56,116 lots, 5,614 lots, and 1,681 lots respectively, and the open interests were 137,560 lots, 136,282 lots, 34,333 lots, and 8,740 lots respectively. The daily increases in positions were 951 lots, 8816 lots, 168 lots, and 45 lots respectively [3]. 4.2 Spot Market - Today's Bean 1 basis was -15 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. The total number of registered Bean 1 warehouse receipts was 7,290 lots, which was the same as the previous trading day [5]. 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Important Events**: According to Wind data, today's average quotation of domestic soybeans was 3971 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous observation day. Recently, the spot price of domestic soybeans has been generally stable with a slight decline. The port soybean inventory was 6.6094 million tons, an increase of 1.01% from the previous observation day. Recently, with the decrease in imported arrivals, the current port soybean inventory has generally decreased [8][9]. - **Industry News**: According to Wind data, today's near - month landed duty - paid prices of imported soybeans showed a stable and rising trend. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was reported at 4568.05 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was reported at 3975.71 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was reported at 3792.05 yuan/ton. Recently, the decline in enterprise crushing profits has slowed down, and the crushing profits have rebounded [10]. 4.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, in an atmosphere where the overall spot price of soybeans is rising steadily, the price of the main contract (A2511) of Bean 1 futures may continue to show a strong oscillatory trend [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 10, 2025, the urea futures market opened low and continued to decline, with the price falling below the key integer mark of 1,600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased significantly. The weakness in the spot market, affected by weather conditions, led to a decrease in demand and a drop in prices, which in turn dragged down the futures prices. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the spot market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened low and continued to decline on this day, and the trading sentiment in the spot market did not improve. During the holiday, upstream factories carried out many maintenance operations, resulting in a slight decrease in daily production, but the high supply pressure remained above 190,000 tons. Nationwide rainfall affected agricultural operations, reducing urea demand and delaying the farming season. Downstream factories were on holiday during the National Day, with a significant decline in the operating load of compound fertilizer factories compared to the same period last year. After the holiday, as factories resume production and the weather improves, terminal purchasing is expected to improve. The inventory in upstream factories increased by about 17% compared to last week [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,612 yuan/ton, closed at 1,597 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.36%. The trading volume was 338,864 lots, an increase of 28,175 lots. Among the top twenty long and short positions in the main contract, long positions increased by 10,163 lots, and short positions increased by 18,454 lots [2]. - Spot: The futures market declined significantly the previous day, and the trading sentiment in the spot market did not improve. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton, with individual factories in Henan having even lower transaction prices, and factories in Hebei having higher quotes [1][5]. Warehouse Receipt Information - On October 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,017, remaining the same as the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes and the futures closing price both decreased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis for the January contract at - 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply: On October 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,400 tons, remaining the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.25% [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by supply disturbances and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai nickel futures is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but the weak demand side may limit the upward space [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Daily Market Overall Performance** - On October 9, 2025, the first trading day after the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the domestic base metals market witnessed an overall upward trend. The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel showed strong performance, rising steadily after the opening and closing at 124,480 yuan/ton with a large positive line on the daily chart [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - For the Shanghai nickel 2511 contract, the closing price was 12,448 points, with a rise of 2,900 points (2.39% increase), a trading volume of 13,086 lots, an amplitude of 1.31%, an open interest of 86,038 lots, and a daily increase in positions of 9,898 lots. - For the Shanghai nickel 2512 contract, the closing price was 12,466 points, with a rise of 2,940 points (2.75% increase), a trading volume of 56,031 lots, an amplitude of 2.42%, an open interest of 72,658 lots, and a daily increase in positions of 10,333 lots [5]. - **1.3 Spot Market Data** - On October 9, the average spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 124,825 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of imported nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton. The average transaction prices all increased by 1,150 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **Supply Side** - After the holiday, the market was significantly affected by supply - side uncertainties, such as the fluctuating export quota policy of Indonesian nickel mines and the tight supply of recycled nickel raw materials, which pushed up prices. However, the new refined nickel production capacities at home and abroad were steadily released, resulting in relatively large supply pressure. As of October 9, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 236,892 tons, an increase of 4,260 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel futures inventory (warehouse receipts) was 24,817 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous trading day, but the high - inventory state remained unchanged [6]. - **Demand Side** - Despite the price increase, the demand from downstream industries such as stainless steel and new energy had not significantly increased, and the overall market trading enthusiasm was relatively mild [6].

成文日期：20251010 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:' 研究分析师：安致远（期货从业资格证号：F03143832；投资咨询证书号：Z0022799） 新贸日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 10 月 9 日期货品种锰硅 SM2601 合约呈现震荡态势。日盘开于 5766 元/ 吨,最高价 5778 元 / 吨,最低价 5730 元 / 吨,收盘价为 5768 元/吨，结算价为 5756 元/ 吨，收盘价较前一交易日下跌 12 元 /吨。全日成交量为 153351 手，持仓量为 363849 手。 图 1：锰硅 SM2601 分时图 1.2 品种价格 期货 12 个合约,价格呈现近低远高的正向市场格局。品种持仓 5/10/09 星期四 PageUp/PageDown日期切换 均价5756 11:30 数据来源：同花顺期货通 量 528306 手,较上一交易日增加 45649 手, 其中活跃合约锰硅 SM2601，持仓量增加 15558 手。 图 2：锰硅期货日行情表 | 合约代 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 島低价 | 令收當 | 令结算 | 涨跌 | 张跌2 | 成交早 | 持仓量 | 増減量 ...