交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，零星聚酯工厂补货。12月货在01贴30~35附近商 谈成交，价格商谈区间在4675~4710。本周仓单在01-39成交，下周初仓单在01-35有成交，今日主流现货基差在01-32。中性 2、基差：现货4685，01合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：日内PTA现货市场商谈氛围清淡，报递盘僵持，期 ...

【期现】 截至12月4日收盘，焦煤期货震荡反弹走势，以收盘价统计，焦煤主力2601合约+21.0(+1.96%)至 1091.5，焦煤远月2605合约+19.5(+1.67%)至1184.0，1-5价差走强至-92.5。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓 单1300元/吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+208.5元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1205元/吨(对标)，环 比+0.0元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+113.5元/吨。焦煤期货低位震荡，山西煤焦现货继续下跌，蒙煤现货报价企 稳。 【供给】 截至12月4日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量64.5万吨/日，周环比+0.8万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均 产量46.6万吨/日，周环比+0.3万吨/日，总产量为111.1万吨/日，周环比+1.1万吨/日。 截至12月4日，日均铁水产量232.30万吨/日，环比-2.38万吨/日；高炉开工率80.16%，环比-0.93%；高炉 炼铁产能利用率87.08%，环比-0.89%；钢厂盈利率36.36%，环比+1.3%。 【库存】 截至12月4日，焦煤总库存(矿山+洗煤厂+焦化厂+钢厂+16港+口岸)周环比+56.0至3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the slow sales of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the CBOT soybean futures price maintains a volatile adjustment trend. The decline in domestic soybean import costs weakens the oil mills' willingness to support the price of soybean meal. Coupled with the abundant supply of soybean sources and soybean meal in the spot market and the lack of significant increase in downstream demand, the market price of soybean meal may be under pressure. In the short - term, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On December 2, 2025, the price of the soybean meal m2601 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation. It opened at 3033 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 3048 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3029 yuan/ton, and closed at 3045 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a reference increase of 0.03%. The daily trading volume was 494,360 lots, and the open interest was 1,164,957 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - On the same day, most of the prices of soybean meal futures contracts rose slightly. The total open interest of the variety contracts was 3,785,832 lots, an increase of 25,028 lots compared with the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Quotation - On December 2, 2025, the spot quotations of soybean meal in some domestic regions fluctuated within a narrow range. For example, the price in Zhangjiagang was 3020 yuan/ton with no change, in Tianjin it was 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, in Rizhao it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Dongguan it was 3010 yuan/ton with no change [7][8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of soybean meal remained unchanged. The total number of soybean meal warehouse receipts was 9,450 lots, the same as the previous day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry Information - The import cost of soybeans declined. On December 2, the import cost of US soybeans was 4537 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous day, ending a three - day increase and falling from a more than one - week high. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3950 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3917 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The price of the soybean meal m2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a volatile consolidation in the short - term [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pig Industry - Pig prices are at a low level and continue to bottom out. The market supply remains in a loose pattern, and downstream slaughterhouses' procurement is relatively smooth. There is an expected increase in December's pig出栏量, and the supply pressure from large - scale pig farms is increasing. The downward space is limited, and the fat - lean price difference is slightly adjusted. The second - fattening is cautious to enter the market, and there is no selling pressure from small and medium - sized farmers for now. The futures market is slightly at a premium to the spot market. The supply - side pressure may be less than previously expected, and sentiment has a greater impact, but the demand lacks highlights, and the tug - of - war between upstream and downstream continues. The logic of capacity reduction in the futures market is still being traded. The strategy of inter - month arbitrage can be held, and the spot market still exerts pressure, so the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [2]. Meal Industry - The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and it is difficult to see an upward trend in the single - side market. The supply in January and February is basically guaranteed, and the uncertainty lies in whether the procurement of US soybeans can meet the arrival of soybeans in China in March. Continue to pay attention to the trends of domestic procurement of US and Brazilian soybeans. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and short - term trading is dull [4]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, it is dragged down by the potential negative factor of inventory increasing to 2.7 million tons and the weakening of the US soybean oil futures in the external market. The Malaysian palm oil may fluctuate horizontally around 4,100 ringgit in the short term. Pay close attention to the impact of production, export, and inventory news on the market. The Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a weak and volatile trend, facing resistance at 8,800 yuan, and there is a possibility and risk of a short - term break below. Pay close attention to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can stop falling effectively in the range of 8,350 - 8,500 yuan and then strengthen again following the Malaysian palm oil trend. For soybean oil, the demand from the US renewable fuel industry for soybean oil remains resilient. In the short term, due to the progress in the US - Russia negotiation, the decline in international crude oil may drag down the CBOT soybean oil, and there is some room for correction. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, with an estimated import volume of 9.5 million tons in December. Factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the domestic soybean oil supply pattern remains abundant. Some traders are more willing to sell, which drags down the basis quotation, but the basis quotation has limited short - term fluctuation space due to the support of soybean import costs and traders' procurement costs [5]. Corn Industry - In the corn market, the arrival volume in the Northeast region continues to shrink, and the enthusiasm for replenishing stocks at all levels increases. Coupled with policy support for storage and the rising futures and port prices, the prices in the production area are pushed up. In the North China region, farmers sell for profit, and the external transportation increases slightly. The number of arriving vehicles remains high, and the price fluctuates slightly. Overall, the corn supply is in a short - term tight situation. On the demand side, traders are cautious about building inventories, and deep - processing enterprises have low inventories and a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory, and their long - term enthusiasm for building inventories is not high. In summary, the short - term supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged, and the strong spot price in the Northeast region drives the futures price to a new high. Pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply and inventory changes, as a recovery may limit the price increase space [6]. Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower. Although the sugar price rebounded to some extent after reaching a five - year low last month, the expectation of a global sugar surplus this year limits the price increase. After the Indian government allowed sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025 - 26 season, more than 100,000 tons of spot contracts have been signed and the transportation has started. Due to abundant rainfall this year, the sugarcane crushing work in India is in full swing. As of November 30, 2025, the national sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production are expected to increase significantly compared with last year. Overall, the raw sugar remains in a weak trend. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led to a decline in the price of Yunnan sugar, and the impact of low - price sugar has also spread to the processed sugar and beet sugar fields. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak and volatile trend [10]. Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures fell to the lowest level in more than a week due to the dismal export sales report and the weak market sentiment. The USDA export sales report shows that the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year decreased by 39% compared with the previous week and 51% compared with the average of the previous four weeks. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming USDA weekly export sales report and the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report. In the domestic market, the cotton picking in Xinjiang is completely finished, and the acquisition in the northern part is basically over, while the acquisition volume in the southern part is shrinking. As the cottonseed resources decrease, the acquisition price continues to fall. The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton still faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton spot is sluggish, but the pre - sales are being delivered one after another, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The spot sales basis is firm, and there is strong support for the Zhengzhou cotton price. In summary, the cotton price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [12]. Egg Industry - Based on the previous chick replenishment and the base of last month's inventory, the number of laying hens in the laying period is likely to decline to some extent in December. Although the current inventory is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years. The market trading is dull, the downstream procurement has not started, the terminal consumption remains weak, and traders are not enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly purchasing on demand. The average inventory in the production and circulation links is about 1.06 days and 1.14 days respectively, and each link maintains a rigid - demand inventory. The egg supply is basically normal, the downstream digestion speed is slow, most traders have low confidence in the future market, the inventory in each link increases slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that the egg futures price will maintain a weak pattern at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis increased by 64.58% to - 82; the price of Live Pig 2605 decreased by 0.46% to 11,870 yuan/ton; the price of Live Pig 2601 decreased by 0.91% to 11,385 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 11.49% to - 485; the main contract position decreased by 1.34% to 90,529; the number of warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 85 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.42% to 210,923; the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.38% to 18.21 yuan/kg; the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.86% to 17.00 yuan/kg; the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg; the weekly average slaughter weight increased by 0.32% to 129.22 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 8.90% to - 148 yuan/head; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 6.05% to - 249 yuan/head; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [2]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3,060 yuan/ton; the price of M2605 decreased by 0.49% to 2,833 yuan/ton; the basis of M2605 increased by 6.57% to 227; the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot is m2601 - 20; the Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit decreased by 7.5% to 49; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 54.4% to 23,830 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.42% to 2,390 yuan/ton; the price of RM2605 decreased by 0.58% to 2,395 yuan/ton; the basis of RM2605 increased by 44.44% to - 5; the Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit increased by 8.81% to 729; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [4]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.82% to 4,105 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean contract increased by 17.09% to - 199; the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,950 yuan/ton; the price of the main soybean No. 2 contract decreased by 0.32% to 3,770 yuan/ton; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract increased by 6.67% to 192; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 0.77% to 15,766 [4]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal remained unchanged at - 112; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2.99% to - 2; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 7.10% to 2.91; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract increased by 0.58% to 2.80; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 1.52% to 670; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged at 438 [4]. Oil Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil decreased by 0.58% to 8,570 yuan/ton; the price of Y2601 decreased by 0.39% to 8,254 yuan/ton; the basis of Y2601 decreased by 5.39% to 316; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 260; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 111.96% to 18,269 [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.92% to 8,640 yuan/ton; the price of P2601 decreased by 0.73% to 8,666 yuan/ton; the basis of P2601 decreased by 160.00% to - 26; the basis quotation of Guangdong in January is 01 + 50; the import cost of Guangzhou Port in January decreased by 1.66% to 9,042.2 yuan/ton; the import profit of Guangzhou Port in January increased by 19.12% to - 376 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 28.41% to 452 [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.80% to 9,970 yuan/ton; the price of Ol601 decreased by 0.96% to 9,618 yuan/ton; the basis of Ol601 increased by 3.83% to 352; the basis quotation of Jiangsu in January is 01 + 270; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 3,792 [5]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4.17% to 184; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil increased by 11.76% to - 30; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 20.96% to 181; the spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 30.00% to - 70; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 6.57% to - 626; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 2.10% to 1,400; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 4.28% to 1,364 [5]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 increased by 1.24% to 2,287 yuan/ton; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.43% to 2,310 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 43.90% to 23; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 76.67% to - 7; the bulk grain price at Shekou increased by 0.41% to 2,460 yuan/ton; the north - south trade profit remained unchanged at 59; the CIF price decreased by 0.11% to 2,096 yuan/ton; the import profit increased by 3.51% to 364; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 11.52% to 1,083; the position increased by 4.76% to 2,346,433; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.51% to 58,664 [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 1.09% to 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,590 yuan/ton; the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,800 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 100.00% to 0; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 39.29% to - 34; the 01 spread between starch and corn on the disk remained unchanged at 303; the profit of Shandong starch remained unchanged at 1; the position increased by 0.73% to 333,476; the number of warehouse receipts was not available [6]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 decreased by 0.71% to 5,328 yuan/ton; the price of Sugar 2605 decreased by 0.64% to 5,263 yuan/ton; the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.07% to 14.91 cents/pound; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.80% to - 4; the position of the main contract decreased by 0.28% to 329,240; the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0; the number of effective forecasts remained at 183 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.55% to 5,390 yuan/ton; the price in Kunming decreased by 0.56% to 5,370 yuan/ton; the basis in Nanning increased by 3.25% to 127; the basis in Kunming increased by 3.88% to 107; the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.36% to 4,106 yuan/ton; the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.38% to 5,203 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning increased by 1.15% to - 1,284; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning increased by 5.08% to - 187 [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guang

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On December 4, the coke主力合约 closed at 1,651.5 yuan/ton, up 1.69% intraday. The position of the主力 contract was 27,065 lots at the close, a decrease of 2,216 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased by 2.99% week - on - week, while that of Qingdao Port remained flat. Coke daily output increased, but the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35.06%. In December, there is still uncertainty in coking coal supply, and the Politburo meeting may bring macro - level benefits, which creates resistance to further decline of coke futures. The main contract rebounded slightly at the lower edge of the trading range [6][37]. - On December 4, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 1,091.5 points, up 1.11% intraday. The position of the main contract was 350,729 lots at the close, a decrease of 41,446 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 6.3% week - on - week. In November, coking coal production increased, and imports accelerated, resulting in insufficient supply - side support and a weakening market sentiment. However, considering the December Politburo economic meeting and the end - of - year coal mine production reduction expectation, there is resistance to further decline of coking coal futures. The focus remains on coal mine production [7][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - From January to October this year, global new ship order volume was 1,632 vessels and 94.87 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the 15th Five - Year Plan period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, a decrease of about 20% compared with the average of the 14th Five - Year Plan period but still about 50% higher than that of the 13th Five - Year Plan period [9]. - On December 4, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,500 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Flat - price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | - 2.99% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 9.50% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - class Coke (Out - of - warehouse) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 6.25% | 1.69% | - 9.77% | | Jingtang Port Australian - produced Coking Coal | 1,570 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.37% | - 1.26% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced Coking Coal | 1,650 yuan/ton | - 3.51% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,651.5 | 1.69% | 1,667.5 | 1,615.0 | 196,462 | 2,295 | 27,065 | - 2,216 | | Coking Coal | | 1,091.5 | 1.11% | 1,096.5 | 1,059.5 | 337,231 | - 85,112 | 350,729 | - 41,446 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and full - sample independent coking plants from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [29][30][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke is similar to the core view, with the main contract rebounding slightly due to supply uncertainty and potential macro - level benefits, and attention should be paid to coal mine production [37]. - The outlook for coking coal is also in line with the core view, with resistance to further decline due to the Politburo meeting and end - of - year production reduction expectation, and the key lies in coal mine production [38].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 土泽辉 Z0019938 2025年12月4日 | | 原田 | | 现价 江苏一级 8620 8620 0 0.00% | | 期价 Y2601 8286 8288 -2 -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2601 334 332 2 0.60% | | 江苏1月 01+260 01+270 现货基差报价 -10 | | 8619 | | 棕榈油 | | 12月3日 12月2日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 8720 8620 现价 广东24度 100 1.16% | | 8720 0.11% 期价 P2601 8730 10 | | 基差 P2601 -10 -100 90 90.00% | | 现货基差报价 广东1月 01+50 01+0 50 ត | | 盘面进口成本 广州港1月 9195.1 9091.7 103.4 1.14% | | 盘面进口利润 -372 -93 -25.14% 广州港1月 -465 | | 仓单 352 355 0.00% 0 | | 菜籽油 | | 现价 江苏三级 10050 10080 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High - level oscillatory market, maintain long PX short BZ, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][8] - PTA: Single - sided high - level oscillatory market, hold long PX short PTA, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][9] - MEG: Hold long MEG short PTA, price oscillates between 3800 - 4000, focus on positive spread of monthly difference [2][9] - Rubber: Oscillatory and weak [2][10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory decline [2][14] - LLDPE: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][17] - PP: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][19] - Caustic soda: Trend still under pressure [2][23] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][28] - Glass: Original sheet price stable [2][32] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation, upside space narrowing [2][36] - Urea: Spot trading volume continuously increasing, price center rising [2][41] - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [2][44] - Soda ash: Spot market with little change [2][48] - LPG: Trend under pressure [2][51] - Propylene: Pattern remains loose [2][52] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2][62] - Fuel oil: Narrow adjustment, weak trend continuing [2][63] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Night session continuing to weaken, spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing slightly [2][63] - Freight index (European line): Oscillatory market [2][65] - Staple fiber: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Bottle chips: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Offset printing paper: Low - level oscillation [2][80] - Pure benzene: Short - term mainly oscillatory [2][84] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the performance of various commodities in the energy and chemical industry is differentiated, with some in oscillatory markets, some under pressure, and some showing signs of improvement. Factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment comprehensively influence the price trends of commodities [2] - For some commodities, short - term and medium - term trends may differ, and investors need to pay attention to changes in fundamentals and market news [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: PXN continues to widen, with supply expected to shrink as domestic operating rate is 88.5% (-1%), some devices have maintenance plans, and demand from PTA increases as its operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%). However, overseas gasoline market impacts PX valuation [5][8] - **PTA**: With the restart of some devices, the operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%), and polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%). Supported by PX cost, the single - sided price is in a high - level oscillatory market, but beware of the negative feedback from the terminal industry [9] - **MEG**: The price center drops, with supply tightening as some domestic devices have changes and overseas devices are under maintenance, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally. Hold long MEG short PTA [6][9] Rubber - The rubber market is oscillatory and weak, with the futures price falling, trading volume and open interest decreasing. The spot price also declines, and the demand from the tire industry is weak [10][11] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in an oscillatory decline. Although the inventory of some products decreases, the market is affected by natural rubber and butadiene news, with weak downstream demand and high supply suppressing the price upside [14][15] LLDPE - The LLDPE basis turns positive, but the supply remains loose. The futures price is weak, which dampens market sentiment. The downstream replenishment is cautious, and the supply pressure may increase in the medium - term [17][18] PP - PP shows a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is relatively high, and the demand peak has passed. Although the short - term trading volume improves due to low prices, the long - term factors such as cost, supply, and demand still dominate [19][20] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is under pressure, with high production and inventory. The demand from the alumina industry is weak, and the export is under pressure. The spot price is expected to decline [23][25] Pulp - The pulp market is in an oscillatory operation. The price rises due to supply tightening expectations and cost support. The demand for living paper is stable, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [28][30] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is still weak, and the market is mainly for rigid - demand pick - up [32][33] Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillatory operation with narrowing upside space. The port inventory decreases, but the short - term destocking speed slows down. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction, and the MTO profit is compressed [36][39] Urea - The urea spot trading volume increases continuously, and the price center rises. The enterprise inventory decreases, and the demand from reserves and exports improves. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term upside is limited [41][42] Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The pure benzene market is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in the future. The supply of styrene is stable, and the downstream inventory is high [44][45] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [48][49] LPG and Propylene - LPG is under pressure, and propylene's pattern remains loose. The prices of LPG and propylene futures decline, and the operating rates of relevant industries change slightly [51][52] PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillatory state. The price is at a historical low, and some devices may reduce production due to losses, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [60][61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a narrow adjustment with a weak trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken at night. The spot prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil decline, and the spread narrows slightly [63] Freight Index (European Line) - The freight index (European line) is in an oscillatory market. The futures price rebounds with reduced positions. The spot freight rate changes, and the future trend is affected by factors such as shipping company price increases and market supply - demand [65][74] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Staple fiber and bottle chips are cost - supported, with short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures prices are weak, and the spot prices are stable. The sales rate of staple fiber decreases [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a low - level oscillatory state. The spot price is stable, and the cost increases while the profit decreases. The market demand is weak [80][81] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory increases, and the price changes slightly. The short - term market is under pressure, but there are supply contraction expectations in the future [84][85]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21940 | 30 | 485 | 280 | 1205 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22010 | - | - | ー | l | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2897 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 275 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 161612 | -16380 | -11276 | -47636 | 78532 | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 249248 | -9192 | -9808 | -62021 | 38262 | | | LME铝3M成交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, inventory and profit data of glass and soda ash, and shows the relevant historical data trends through charts, but does not clearly put forward the core viewpoints [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Safety increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, while that of Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1044.0 to 1036.0. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169.0 to 1125.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037.0 to 1020.0 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: On December 3, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 109, in Hubei was 99, in East China was 98, and in South China was 131 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 113.3, while the profit of South China's natural gas glass remained at - 188.1. The profit of North China's natural gas glass increased from - 306.6 to - 304.5. The profit of 05FG and 01FG on the natural gas futures market decreased [1]. Soda Ash - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in some regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1160.0 to 1130.0. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1244.0 to 1233.0, and the SA01 contract price decreased from 1183.0 to 1165.0 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing was put into production. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was about 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was about 1130 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's ammonia - soda process first increased and then decreased, while the profit of North China's combined - soda process increased [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On December 3, the JM2601 contract closed at 1070.5, down 2.19%. The coking coal market is in a bottom - oscillating state with short - term multi - empty fluctuations. The mine capacity utilization rate has declined, and the coking coal inventory of mid - upstream mines and coal washing plants has increased for 4 - 5 consecutive weeks. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the inventory of mid - downstream has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. - On December 3, the J2601 contract closed at 1624.5, up 0.40%. The first round of price cuts for coke in the spot market has been implemented. The iron - making output has decreased, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is oscillating [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1070.50元/吨，较前一日下跌26.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1624.50元/吨，较前一日下跌5.00元[2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为848358.00手，较前一日增加5949.00手；J期货合约持仓量为46528.00手，较前一日减少755.00手[2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 97300.00手，较前一日增加13619.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为283.00手，较前一日减少63.00手[2]。 - JM5 - 1月合约价差为94.00元/吨，较前一日增加11.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为127.00元/吨，较前一日减少8.00元[2]。 - 焦煤仓单为600.00张，较前一日无变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，较前一日无变化[2]。 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为162.00美元/湿吨，较前一日无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1510.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，较前一日无变化[2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；J主力合约基差为205.50元/吨，较前一日增加5.00元[2]。 - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1350.00元/吨，较前一日无变化；JM主力合约基差为539.50元/吨，较前一日增加26.00元[2]。 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为27.10万吨，较前一日增加0.50万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤周库存为321.40万吨，较前一周增加16.10万吨[2]。 - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，较前一周无变化；原煤月产量为40675.00万吨，较前一月减少475.50万吨[2]。 - 煤及褐煤月进口量为4174.00万吨，较前一月减少426.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.30万吨，较前一日减少2.10万吨[2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤周库存为465.00万吨，较前一周增加8.10万吨；焦炭18个港口周库存为247.20万吨，较前一周减少6.20万吨[2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周库存为1010.30万吨，较前一周减少27.89万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭周库存为71.76万吨，较前一周增加6.47万吨[2]。 - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为801.30万吨，较前一周增加4.22万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭周库存为625.52万吨，较前一周增加3.18万吨[2]。 Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为13.01天，较前一周增加0.04天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，较前一周增加0.24天[2]。 - 炼焦煤月进口量为1059.32万吨，较前一月减少33.04万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为73.00万吨，较前一月增加19.00万吨[2]。 - 炼焦煤月产量为4231.51万吨，较前一月增加255.59万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.95%，较前一周增加1.24%[2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为46.00元/吨，较前一周增加27.00元[2]。 - 焦炭月产量为4189.60万吨，较前一月减少66.00万吨[2]。 Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，较前一周下降1.10%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为87.96%，较前一周下降0.60%[2]。 - 粗钢月产量为7199.70万吨，较前一月减少149.31万吨[2]。 Industry News - As of December 2, the issuance scale of local government bonds nationwide was approximately 10.1 trillion yuan, with local government annual bond issuance exceeding 10 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. - Six state - owned large - scale banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit [2]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that the global economic growth in 2025 would slow down to 2.6%, lower than 2.9% in 2024 [2]. - The OECD estimated that the global economic growth would be 3.2% in 2025, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027, and China's economic growth in 2025 would be 5% [2].