交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单开始增加；上期所仓单也逐渐增加；沪锌ZN2507： 震荡盘整。 6月5日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 腰高价 | 腰低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/桶 | 63.37 | 62.85 | 0.83% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/桶 | 65.34 | 64.86 | 0.74% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 557.13 | 562.63 | -0.98% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 698.00 | 699.50 | -0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 820.00 | 825.33 | -0.65% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/5 | 元/吨 | 4644.00 | 4670.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, the silicon ferroalloy 2509 contract closed at 5196, down 0.65%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, and the cost support is weakened by the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The demand expectation for steel is generally weak. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 5, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5482, up 0.48%. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' production cut has led the operating rate to a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The raw material cost side has seen some changes, and the market sentiment has improved. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,482.00元/吨，环比下降20.00元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,196.00元/吨，环比下降62.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为662,411.00手，环比增加6350.00手；SF期货合约持仓量为467,642.00手，环比增加24317.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 27,364.00手，环比增加264.00手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 12,793.00手，环比增加6345.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为32.00元/吨，环比下降8.00元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为8.00元/吨，环比下降4.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为102,183.00张，环比下降1064.00张；SF仓单为15,836.00张，环比下降375.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,450.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,260.00元/吨，环比下降40.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5500.00元/吨，环比无变化；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,230.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500.00元/吨，环比无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,170.00元/吨，环比下降80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5515.00元/吨，环比下降101.68元；SF主力合约基差为 - 26.00元/吨，环比下降18.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加20.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为31.00元/吨度，环比无变化；硅石（98%西北）价格为210.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为970.00元/吨，环比无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为640.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为407.00万吨，环比下降13.50万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为34.77%，环比增加0.59%；锰硅供应为169,925.00吨，环比增加4725.00吨 [2]. - 硅铁企业开工率为30.44%，环比增加0.02%；硅铁供应为84,900.00吨，环比下降4000.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为201,100.00吨，环比下降6000.00吨；硅铁厂家库存为7.51万吨，环比增加0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.15天，环比下降0.29天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.20天，环比下降0.24天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为126886.00吨，环比增加296.00吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20574.50吨，环比下降125.50吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.89%，环比增加0.22%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.67%，环比下降0.63% [2]. - 粗钢产量为8601.90万吨，环比下降682.24万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 山东省工业和信息化厅对石横特钢集团有限公司从菏泽富海能源有限公司转入7万吨焦化合规产能指标进行公示 [2]. - 2025年全国计划新开工改造城镇老旧小区2.5万个，1 - 4月份新开工改造5679个 [2]. - 5月深圳全市二手房录得5727套，环比下降13.2%，同比增长17.6% [2]. - 印尼考虑购买中国歼 - 10战斗机和美国F - 15EX战斗机 [2]. - 欧洲央行正式批准保加利亚使用欧元的申请，使其成为欧元区第21个成员国 [2]. - 商务部等五部门计划开展2025年新能源汽车下乡活动 [2].

2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：弱势延续，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约减仓下行，端午假期结束后的首个交易日，期价承压下行， 技术上重回弱势表现。与期货下跌相比，玉米现货维持偏强表现。端午假日期间 期货市场缺少盘面的指引，北港主流收购价格维持稳定，产区深加工主流收购价 | 震荡下跌 | | | 格也暂无明显调整。端午节期间，华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。麦收之 | | | | 前部分贸易商仍然继续出货，东北粮源持续流入，华北市场整体供应尚可，部分 | | | | 企业玉米价格上调 6-20 元/吨。端午节假期，销区市场玉米价格基本稳定。假期 | | | | 期间下游企业采购较少，使用前期订单及库存为主，产区价格暂时稳定，部分销 | | | | 区市场港口贸易商报价小幅上调。技术上，7 月合约是主力合约，今日期价表现 | | | | 受制于 20 日均线的压制，一根长阴线收复此前连续一周的上涨。从技术端和心 | | | | 理上恢复了悲观的预期。这样玉米市场中，现货强、期货弱，基差走强的表现还 | | | | 在继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The industrial silicon industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation due to the oversupply situation in the short - term, with relatively high total inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3]. - The polysilicon industry is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, affected by the increase in warehouse receipts and weak downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2507 opened at 7110 yuan/ton and closed at 7070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton (-1.39%) compared to the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 200193 lots at the close, and on June 4, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 62690 lots, a decrease of 563 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8500 - 9200 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions also continued to fall. In May 2025, the industrial silicon output was 30.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output decreased by 15.3% year - on - year [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. Some manufacturers stopped quoting prices. The overall market trading atmosphere was good, and the trading activity of both buyers and sellers was at a normal level [2]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon futures price hit a new low, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply was relatively weak overall, but the expectation of resuming production in large northwest factories increased, and some silicon factories in the southwest were preparing to start furnaces during the wet season. The demand remained weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 35605 yuan/ton and closing at 34360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 71600 lots (77400 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 144680 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 27.00, a month - on - month increase of 3.85%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.57GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00%. The weekly polysilicon output was 21600.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.40%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.40GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [4][5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - **Strategy** - The futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly affected by the significant increase in the number of warehouse receipts. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The polysilicon industry was operating at a reduced load, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but the inventory digestion was slow. The downstream demand was still weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-04甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：内地方面，前期下跌过程中贸易商和下游采购意愿较差，部分产区工厂处于累库状态，且煤制甲醇利润丰 厚下周初上游主动大幅让利刺激出货为主，看空后市情绪下，长协贸易商出货意愿强烈且有做空行为。而鲁北下游 MTBE开工维持低位，周内采购也有减少，下游也顺势压价，上半周销区同步走跌。但随着产销区甲醇价格跌破近一年 来最低点，底部空间下贸易商持货意愿增强以及部分补空单需求下，下半周内地甲醇行情逐止跌回稳。港口方面，亦是 呈现先跌后稳走势，上半周供需面表现偏弱下，期现货价格同步下行，基差亦有走弱，随着美国联邦法院暂停关税政策 的消息传出，期货盘面获得支撑，多空因素博弈下港口价格震荡为主；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为22 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The methanol market shows a short - term low - level rebound. The spot market has mixed price trends, with some regions falling and others rising. The market trading atmosphere has improved due to macro - level benefits and futures rebounds, but downstream demand remains mainly for essential needs at lower prices. Port inventories have different trends, with overall port inventory rising last week [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,217 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Trading volume was 737,761 lots, an increase of 36,302 lots; open interest was 841,450 lots, an increase of 17,111 lots. The basis was 50, up 11, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 64, up 3 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shandong price remained unchanged at 2,120 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2008.89, down 14.42. The Taicang spot price was 2275, up 28, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1862.5, down 32.5. Six out of 20 monitored cities saw price drops ranging from 5 - 32.5 yuan/ton. The northwest methanol market continued to be weak, but market trading improved due to macro - level benefits and futures rebounds. However, downstream enterprises in major sales areas still mainly purchased based on essential needs at lower prices [3]. - Last week, methanol port inventory stopped falling and rebounded, with 24.56 million tons of visible unloading from foreign vessels. Jiangsu's inventory increased slightly due to increased shipments; Zhejiang's inventory increased due to more foreign vessel unloading. The South China port inventory decreased slightly. Guangdong's inventory decreased due to good consumption and increased social warehouse pick - up; Fujian's inventory also decreased due to limited imports and essential consumption [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The methanol trend intensity was 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive view within the [- 2, 2] range [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - On June 3, the JM2509 contract closed at 719.0, down 3.03%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 735. With a loose supply, stable mine production, and a continuous increase in clean coal inventory, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a weak - oscillating operation [2]. - On June 3, the J2509 contract closed at 1299.0, down 1.10%. The second - round price cut has been implemented on the spot side. With Trump's tariff increase plan, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The loose supply of raw materials weakens cost support, and the molten iron output has declined from a high level. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 39 yuan/ton this period. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a weak - oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为719.00元/吨，环比下跌7.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1299.00元/吨，环比下跌9.00元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为680451.00手，环比增加29469.00手；J期货合约持仓量为59323.00手，环比减少41.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 14148.00手，环比增加23893.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为2338.00手，环比增加874.00手 [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差为16.50元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为23.50元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为0.00张，环比持平；焦炭仓单为90.00张，环比持平 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为735.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1520.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为117.50美元/湿吨，环比持平；唐山二级冶金焦价格为1525.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1200.00元/吨，环比下跌20.00元；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1440.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1270.00元/吨，环比下跌30.00元；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1340.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1050.00元/吨，环比持平；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1050.00元/吨，环比持平 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为331.00元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J主力合约基差为221.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元 [2]. 3.3上游情况 - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为310.98万吨，环比减少5.50万吨；精煤库存为222.07万吨，环比增加7.33万吨 [2]. - 110家洗煤厂开工率为61.55%，环比下降0.81个百分点；原煤产量为38930.60万吨，环比减少5127.60万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为3783.00万吨，环比减少90.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比减少1.80万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.76万吨，环比增加18.27万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为271.78万吨，环比减少4.90万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为846.33万吨，环比减少19.40万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为111.38万吨，环比增加8.13万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为786.79万吨，环比减少11.96万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为654.93万吨，环比减少5.66万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.50天，环比减少0.20天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.71天，环比减少0.18天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为889.34万吨，环比增加25.97万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为55.00万吨，环比减少21.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4161.47万吨，环比持平；独立焦企产能利用率为75.66%，环比下降0.21个百分点 [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 39.00元/吨，环比减少24.00元；焦炭产量为4160.00万吨，环比增加30.60万吨 [2]. 3.4全国下游情况 - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.89%，环比增加0.22个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为90.67%，环比下降0.63个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8601.90万吨，环比减少682.24万吨 [2]. 3.5行业消息 - 全国多地加强管控，严防战略矿产非法外流，如贵州按部署分工工作，湖南摸排战略矿产出口企业，广西查处非法采矿行为 [2]. - 欧盟正制定针对俄罗斯的第18轮制裁措施，涵盖“北溪”基础设施、俄罗斯银行业及下调原油价格上限等 [2]. - 美国贸易代表办公室延长对中国相关行为、政策及做法301调查的豁免期限至2025年8月31日 [2]. - 新疆伊尔克什坦口岸自本月起试行全时段货运通关 [2].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-06-03 | 环比 | 数据指标 最新 数据指标 最新 | 项目类别 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) 4745 -19 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) 609137 | 期货市场 | -519956 | | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) 1020928 10780 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) 781397 | | | -362 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) 842003 11308 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) -60606 | | | -11670 | | | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) 5010 4680 | 现货市场 | | 14.23 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) 4935 15 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) 4766.25 | | | 20.62 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日,美元/吨) 710 0 PVC ...