铜及再生铜市场分析与展望 20250520 摘要 • 2025 年铜矿供应增速预计仅为 1%-2%，而国内冶炼厂新增投产量预计超 过 100 万吨，矿产资源紧张与需求增加并存，冶炼厂面临原料短缺压力。 • 2025 年 1-4 月电解铜产量同比增长约 40 万吨，主要得益于再生铜阳极板 对冶炼厂原料的弥补作用，国内再生铜阳极板产能大幅增加，加工利润可 观。 • 当前冶炼厂零单成交基本处于亏损状态，按-40 TC 成交计算，亏损幅度约 在 1,500 元上下，反映冶炼行业面临挑战。 • 铜加工品及再生铜行业加工利润维持在较高水平，驱动企业最大化产能， 尤其阳极板产量显著增加，2024 年国内阳极板产量达到 185 至 190 万吨。 • 江西、安徽、湖北和四川等地成为再生铜产业发展重点区域，2024 年至 今新增投产接近 150 万吨，主要受益于税收优惠政策。 • 2025 年 1-4 月国内再生铜供应同比增加 8.7 万吨，受益于铜价上涨刺激 和废旧设备更新换代政策，但中美贸易摩擦关税影响导致 4 月份供应量有 所下降。 • 电网工程投资增长带动电线电缆需求，铜价下跌后终端拿货意愿增加。预 计 2025 年房 ...

在全球经济的宏大版图中，美国经济宛如一座巍峨的山峰，长久以来占据着举足轻重的地位。它以庞大的经济体量、多元的产业结构、强大的科技实力和活 跃的金融市场，成为世界经济增长的重要引擎和全球经济的风向标。然而，在这看似繁华的背后，美国经济也正面临着诸多深层次的挑战与隐忧，同时也孕 育着新的发展机遇与格局重塑的可能。 科技引领：经济腾飞的强劲引擎 科技，无疑是美国经济保持领先地位的核心驱动力。硅谷，这片位于美国西海岸的神奇土地，汇聚了全球顶尖的科技人才和创新资源，孕育了诸如苹果、谷 歌、微软等科技巨头。这些企业在信息技术、人工智能、生物医药、新能源等前沿领域不断取得突破，不仅改变了人们的生活方式，也为美国经济注入了源 源不断的活力。 以信息技术产业为例，美国的互联网企业占据了全球市场的主导地位。从搜索引擎到社交媒体，从电子商务到云计算，美国科技公司的创新成果广泛应用于 全球各个角落，创造了巨大的经济效益。同时，人工智能技术的飞速发展，正在推动美国制造业、服务业等传统产业的智能化升级，提高生产效率，降低成 本。生物医药领域的创新则不断为人类健康带来新的希望，也为美国经济开辟了新的增长点。 消费驱动：经济循环的关键齿轮 ...

| | | | VA SUICFULURES | | 2025年05月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ★☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★☆★ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面惯性下挫。裸统表需环比回升,产登相对平稳,库存恢复下降态势。熬卷需求同步回瑜,产量有所回落,库存恢复下 降态势。铁水产量有所回落,整体仍处于高位,供应压力依然较大,随着需求决季临近,终端承接能力有特观察。从下游行业 看,内容整体依然偏弱,4月统计数据显示制造业扳资增建放缓, ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《外需波动影响信贷，加速改善可 期》 - 2025.05.16 宏观研究 4 月经济呈供给驱动特征，应超前关注科技产业对 投资的补充 投资要点 4 月经济运行呈现"增速边际放缓、韧性延续"的特征。受外部环 境不确定性上升影响，当月经济增速边际回落；在低基数效应下，按 照生产法测算，4 月经济增速拟合值为 5.5%，低于 3 月经济增速，基 本持平 1-2 月经济增速，经济增速保持一定韧性。从增长动能看，考 虑到外部环境复杂性加剧，可能强化市场主体谨慎预期，进而对消费、 投资和生产活动形成收缩压力，经济动能呈现显著的供给驱动特征， 供需缺口持续扩大。 当前宏观环境的主要矛盾是中美贸易摩擦，成为影响市场定价的 主要因素。尽管中美经贸会谈释放积极信号，但未来不确定性仍大。 4 月 12 日，中美经贸会谈释放积极信号，美国对我国加征关税税率从 ...

面对当前错综复杂的外贸形势，此次活动邀请商务部贸易救济调查局、中国建设银行总行、中国信保公 司国别研究中心、呼和浩特市税务局与东日律师事务所的五位专家从支持外贸出口企业应对贸易摩擦 击、保住出口订单、拓展多元市场、防范收汇风险、解决融资难题、提供法律援助等方面出发，多维度 为企业展开深度解析。首场培训紧扣形势、内容务实、指导有力，受到了企业的广泛关注和一致好评。 转自：新华财经 5月16日，由内蒙古自治区商务厅、中国建设银行内蒙古分行与中国出口信用保险公司北京分公司主办 的"应对贸易摩擦 助力外贸稳定"系列活动启动仪式暨首场专题培训在建设银行内蒙古分行顺利召开。 据了解，"应对贸易摩擦 助力外贸稳定"系列活动采取"线上+线下"的形式举办，设立1个主会场，11个 盟市分会场，内蒙古自治区200余家外贸企业现场参会，线上共计5600余人次观看直播。 下一步，"应对贸易摩擦 助力外贸稳定"系列活动将面向全区展开，下沉至各盟市开展巡回培训，护航 自治区外贸企业行稳致远。 在内蒙古自治区商务厅等部门的引领下，建设银行内蒙古分行将深度对接"应对贸易摩擦 助力外贸稳 定"系列活动，聚焦外贸企业发展需求，创新金融服务模式，持 ...

新华财经北京5月20日电 2025年1-4月中旬，宏观消息面疲软，中美加征对等关税、终端需求不及预期 等利空消息面不断释放，导致国内二甲苯市场商谈价格基本呈现震荡下行趋势，价格跌至近五年低位水 平。而随着中美贸易摩擦缓和提振市场信心，叠加终端聚酯预期外的高开工以及终端织机开机率的提 升，推动PTA-PX产业链供需向好，下游PX价格连日上涨，MX-PX价差拉大，短流程生产微跌，下游 PX企业阶段性集中采购原料MX，多重利好推动二甲苯市场价格快速上涨。以江苏异构二甲苯市场为 例，5月14日市场商谈价格最高涨至6050元／吨，较5月6日低点上涨650元／吨，涨幅高达12%。 1-4月宏观消息面疲软叠加需求不及预期，市场商谈价格下跌且交投活跃度低。 2025年1-4月中旬，受国内主营炼厂常减压开工负荷较低叠加海外调油需求尚可等利好支撑，调油经济 性尚可，国内二甲苯生产企业自用为主，外销有限，使得国内二甲苯总供应偏紧。以江苏主港二甲苯到 货量及库存为例，1-4月份江苏主港月度平均到货量仅有2万吨左右，除去春节假期期间二甲苯库存小幅 累积外，整体库存呈现下降趋势，至4月中上旬，港口库存最低降至0.71万吨，较2021年末 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market is experiencing a notable adjustment due to a decrease in risk aversion stemming from improved US-China trade relations, leading to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to risk assets [1][3] - The recent week saw a significant outflow from gold ETFs, exceeding 4 billion yuan, as investors reacted to the easing of trade tensions, which has resulted in a short-term increase in the adjustment magnitude of precious metals [1] - The gold market currently lacks the foundation for a new upward momentum, with high short-term volatility and a rational adjustment process observed in the precious metals market, as indicated by the stable gold-silver ratio around 100 [2] Group 2 - The US-China trade negotiations have progressed beyond expectations, with the US agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, which has contributed to a more favorable market environment [3] - The Federal Reserve is considering revising its monetary policy framework in response to changing inflation and interest rate prospects, indicating potential challenges for the economy and central bank [3] - Moody's has downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing persistent budget deficits as a concern, which may impact investor sentiment and market dynamics [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) allows investors to gain exposure to gold without the costs associated with physical storage and authentication, enhancing capital efficiency through a T+0 trading mechanism [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant reduction of tariffs on Chinese imports by the US and the corresponding decrease in tariffs on US imports by China, which is expected to reshape trade dynamics between the two countries [1][3][5] - The US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% over the next three months, while China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] - Brazil's soybean export premium has dropped, and US futures prices have reached a three-month high due to expectations that China may purchase more soybeans from the US [1][3] Group 2 - China has been investing in upgrading infrastructure in Brazil, including the Santos port, which will shorten the transportation cycle for Brazilian soybeans to China to 23 days and increase annual throughput by 30% [1] - Chinese companies have invested $3.5 billion in building a deep-water port in Peru and are laying down a thousand-kilometer railway network in Brazil, which will double the export capacity of South American food to China [1] - In 2024, Brazil's soybean exports to China are projected to reach 3.5 times that of the US, indicating a significant shift in supply sources [3] Group 3 - Following the tariff adjustments, there has been a 277% surge in container bookings from China to the US, indicating a rapid response in the shipping market [5] - The average booking volume for container transport from China to the US reached 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units, a significant increase from the previous week's 5,709 units [5] - The reduction in tariffs is expected to last until August 12, and there is optimism among US businesses regarding potential further negotiations and tariff reductions [5] Group 4 - Despite the tariff reductions, US farmers express that the pause in tariffs is insufficient, highlighting ongoing challenges in regaining market share in China [1][3] - The article notes that the US has struggled to compete in the soybean market, with Chinese imports from Brazil and Argentina rapidly increasing since the trade tensions began [3] - The article also mentions that high tariffs on Chinese goods have led to increased consumer dissatisfaction in the US, impacting political support for current policies [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose 2.1% last week, closing at 23,345 points, marking the fifth consecutive week of gains[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.0%, closing at 5,281 points[1] - Average daily trading volume increased by 16.1% week-on-week to over HKD 232.5 billion[1] - Net outflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect was approximately HKD 8.7 billion for the week, with a significant reduction in cumulative net inflow to HKD 16.8 billion over the past 20 days[1] Sector Performance - The financial sector surged by 3.8%, driven mainly by domestic banks and insurers[1] - Industrial, energy, and telecommunications sectors also saw gains of 2% or more over the week[1] Investment Sentiment - Since mid-April, the flow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect has been volatile, with a record net outflow of HKD 18.5 billion on May 12, indicating a cautious stance from southbound investors[2] - The current AH premium index has dropped to the 16.0 percentile since 2020, suggesting insufficient value for aggressive buying[2] - The Hang Seng Index faces significant resistance in the 23,500-24,000 point range, with potential for continued volatility if southbound fund support diminishes[2] Macro Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing structural debt imbalance and increasing fiscal deficit pressures[3] - The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035, raising concerns about long-term repayment capacity[3] - Despite the downgrade, Moody's maintains that systemic risk has not reached a critical point, and market reactions will depend more on policy responses and economic data than on the rating change itself[3] Industry Developments - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 0.6%, with notable gains from companies like CSPC Pharmaceutical (3.1% to 3.9% increase)[4] - CSPC signed an exclusive licensing agreement for a cancer treatment in the U.S., receiving an upfront payment of USD 15 million and potential milestone payments of up to USD 25 million[4] - The IPO of Heng Rui Medicine received a "subscribe" rating, with projected revenue growth of 7.3% and net profit growth of 10.1% for 2023-24[4][7] New Drug Approvals - Rongchang Biotech's new indication for its drug has been approved, expected to boost sales significantly[11] - The company reported a 59.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to RMB 530 million for Q1 2025, with a reduction in net loss by 27.2%[13] - Target price for Rongchang Biotech has been raised to HKD 45.00, reflecting positive adjustments in revenue and profit forecasts[14]

黄金抹平 4 月涨幅，后续如何抉择？20250519 摘要 • 4 月下旬黄金价格调整源于宏大叙事显性化，如去美元化短期难实现，及 中美谈判释放友好信号，叠加美国经济数据虽走弱但斜率低于预期，降息 预期延后，导致避险资金转向风险资产。 • 短期内（一个月度级别），黄金上涨和下跌驱动力均较小，预计将构筑新 的平台并呈现横盘整理行情，贸易摩擦利好已充分博弈，美国经济数据仍 具韧性。 • 中长期维持黄金多头逻辑不变，中美关税演绎路径未逆转，已落地 30 个 点税率，未来可能还有 24 个点反复，关税问题对经济的负面影响及对黄 金的利多影响基准路径未变。 • 美国经济数据方面，一季度 GDP 表现出韧性，但贸易逆差带来负面冲击， 抢进口行为支撑短期数据，长期来看，美国经济基本面仍将走弱。 • 长期来看，美国美元信用收缩受逆全球化、债务超发和国产 AI 崛起三大因 素影响，这些因素共同作用下，美元信用依然处于收缩的大周期中。 • 美国制造业回流计划旨在缩减贸易逆差，但面临高成本等挑战，有效性存 疑。若成功实施并缩减逆差，可能对中长期黄金价格形成压力，但政策导 向与市场效率之间的矛盾使其面临诸多困难。 • 上海金表现相对 ...