考虑2025 年猪价或低于2024 全年,我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为72.67/89.36/108.63 亿元,同 比分别+19.55%/+22.98%/+21.57%,归母净利润分别为4.81/7.82/11.12 亿元,同比分 别-7.33%/+62.76%/+42.18% ,EPS 分别为0.94/1.53/2.18 元/股。公司出栏增速较高且成本水平偏低,维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示:发生疫病的风险,生猪价格长期处于低位的风险,原材料价格波动的风险。 生猪出栏高增,板块实现较好盈利 2025Q1 公司销售生猪83.30 万头(同比+63%),其中销售商品猪81.66 万头,商品猪销售均价15.00 元/公斤。 受益于猪价同比回升,以及公司成本持续下降,公司该板块实现较好盈利。展望全年,我们认为公司2025 全 年出栏目标有望达成,板块有望维持较好利润。 出栏有望加速,维持"买入"评级 事件 公司披露2025 年一季度报告,第一季度实现营收16.45 亿元,同比增长73.45%;归母净利润1.30 亿元,同比扭 亏为盈。 猪价同比回升叠加成本改善,利润率同比提升2025Q1 公司 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-04-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2590至2650区间震荡。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未 对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。偏多 2.基差：现货2560，基差-81，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.97万吨，上周0.99万吨，周环比减少2.02%，去年同期2.7万吨，同比减 少64.07%。偏多 ...

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-04-29 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、4月28日，生猪注册仓单705手； 2、LH2505合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月合约受后续出栏增量有限且下 半年属消费旺季、远月养殖成本可能抬升的预期影响支撑较强； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1071手，持仓约7.34万手，最高价14230元/ 吨，最低价14100元/吨，收盘于14130元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差仍有回落空间； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①屠企入库尚未结束能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供需不像空 头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪 消费旺季；④玉米豆粕涨价可能抬升生猪养殖成本。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co., Ltd. (Shennong Group) reported significant financial changes, with a remarkable increase in net cash flow from operating activities and a substantial rise in financial expenses, indicating adjustments in operational status and financial strategy [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue increased significantly to 5.584 billion yuan, up 43.51% from 3.891 billion yuan, primarily driven by higher sales volume and prices of live pigs [2] - The net profit turned from a loss of 401 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 687 million yuan, a 271.16% increase, attributed to higher sales volume and prices of live pigs, along with improved management efficiency [3] - Basic earnings per share rose to 1.31 yuan from a loss of 0.77 yuan, reflecting a 270.13% increase, indicating enhanced profitability [4] Expense Analysis - Sales expenses slightly increased by 6.65% to 69.32 million yuan, driven by higher employee compensation and brand promotion efforts [5] - Management expenses rose by 15.13% to 335 million yuan due to company expansion, necessitating attention to management efficiency [6] - Financial expenses surged by 2843.17% to 25.67 million yuan, primarily due to increased interest expenses, indicating a potential rise in debt burden [7] Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities skyrocketed by 7769.11% to 1.534 billion yuan, reflecting strong operational cash generation capabilities [10] - Net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 17.42% to -979 million yuan, suggesting a more cautious investment approach [11] - Net cash flow from financing activities dropped significantly by 117.38% to -72.87 million yuan, indicating increased debt repayments [12] R&D and Personnel Insights - R&D expenses decreased by 26.61% to 13.75 million yuan, representing only 0.25% of total revenue, which may impact long-term innovation capabilities [8][13] - The R&D team is relatively young, with 25 out of 35 personnel under 30 years old, indicating potential for innovation but requiring experience development [14]

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is positive, with expectations for higher returns compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [52]. Core Views - The agricultural product prices have shown a divergence recently, with grain prices continuing to rise while livestock prices have stabilized after an initial increase. The importance of domestic food security has been highlighted by tariff countermeasures, and the policy environment for industry development is expected to continue improving, indicating ongoing investment opportunities in the sector [5][18]. - The livestock industry chain is experiencing stagnation in production capacity growth, with the valuation of the sector at a low point, suggesting long-term investment opportunities. The average price of live pigs is currently 14.95 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [5][19]. - The poultry sector is witnessing fluctuations in chicken prices, with the average price for white feather broilers at 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry Chain - **Pork**: The production capacity growth has stagnated, and the sector's valuation is at a historical low, indicating potential long-term investment value. The average price of live pigs is 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week [5][19]. - **Poultry**: The average price for white feather broilers is 3.73 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan from last week. The industry is advised to monitor the impacts of avian influenza and tariff countermeasures [21][20]. - **Eggs**: The average price for yellow chickens has shown a slight increase, with prices at 10.69 yuan/kg for Lihua yellow chickens, up 0.32 yuan from last month [21]. Planting Industry Chain - **Seed Industry**: The recent announcement of 99 genetically modified corn and soybean varieties pending approval indicates a significant expansion in domestic GM crop varieties, which is expected to enhance agricultural production efficiency [22]. - **Grain Prices**: Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2291 yuan/ton and wheat at 2434 yuan/ton, suggest potential investment opportunities in the context of reduced imports and tariff measures against U.S. agricultural products [22][11]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (Buy) - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (Buy) [3].

数据显示，报告期天康生物生猪养殖产业链业务实现营业收入61.57亿元，较上年增长11.11%，毛利率 14.61%，较上年增长28.43%；饲料业务、兽药业务和玉米收储业务毛利率均较上年实现了增长；同 时，新疆地区外业务也较上年增长5.94%，三大主业经营质量获得显著提升。 值得注意的是，天康生物一直以来都是机构关注的重点，据年报披露，报告期公司通过线上线下 （300959）接待投资者调研超过200人次，公司就生产经营情况、生猪出栏情况、养殖产能利用率、生 猪养殖的完全成本及未来业务发展规划情况向投资者进行了介绍。 4月28日晚间，天康生物（002100）披露2024年年报，报告期公司生猪养殖、饲料和兽药三大业务全面 开花，利润率均较上年实现增长，公司实现营业收入171.76亿元，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 6.05亿元，较上年大幅扭亏为盈，成功实现经营业绩V形反转。 资料显示，天康生物是国家首批农业产业化重点龙头企业和高新技术企业，实现了现代畜牧业畜禽良种 繁育—饲料与饲养管理—动物药品及畜禽病害防治—畜产品加工销售4个关键环节的完整闭合，形成饲 料及饲用原料、动物疫苗、种猪繁育、生猪养殖、屠宰加工及肉 ...

观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格小幅下降， 淘鸡日龄小幅下降，大小码价差基本持平，鸡苗价 | | | | 格高位持续回落。 | | | 供应 | 今年蛋价跌破饲料成本的时间有限，所以养殖端大多选择延养或换羽。换羽鸡一般需30天左 | 偏空 | | | 右才开产，叠加五一旺季预期从而引发清明后鸡蛋供应偏紧。但五一之后，随着换羽鸡陆续 | | | | 开产，同时南方将逐渐进入梅雨季，或将面临供强需弱格局。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅下降，流通库存和生产环节库存大幅上升。 | | | 需求 | 近期销区市场库存压力上升，蛋商拿货主要以刚需为主，产区走货偏慢，但节日效应仍存短 | 中性 | | | 期支撑。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低，低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润处于盈亏平衡附近，若出现持续亏损，养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本周鸡蛋基差小幅走低，期货近月合约仍处于小幅贴水状态。 | | | 价量 | 目前鸡蛋期货近远期价差处于中等水平。 ...

华 金 期 货 生 猪 周 报 华金期货 研究院 2025/4/28 | 期货数据 | | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | LH2507 | 13540 | -120 | -0.9% | | | | LH2509 | 14150 | -315 | -2.2% | 主力合约 | | | LH2511 | 13795 | -215 | -1.5% | | | 现货数据 | | 最新 | 周涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 备注 | | 商品猪出栏价 | 全国（元/kg） | 14.87 | -0.03 3 | -0.2% | | | | 河南（元/kg） | 15.07 | -0.06 | -0.4% | 交割基准地 | | 出栏均重 | 样本企业（kg） | 124.04 | 0.03 | 0.0% | | | 价差 | | 变化 | 基差 | 基差值 | 变化 | | 09-07价差 | 610 | -195 | 7月 | 1530 | 60 | | 11-09价差 | -355 | 100 | 9月 | 920 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, highlighting their cost advantages and strong performance capabilities [3][58]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant overselling, with seasonal price weakness in pig prices, but overall performance is better than market expectations. Factors such as frozen product inventory and secondary fattening still have room for improvement, indicating that the bottom of pig prices remains supported [1][58]. - In March 2025, the total number of pigs sold by 15 listed pig companies reached 17.69 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%, marking a historical high for monthly sales [40][58]. - The report emphasizes that the supply of breeding sows is expected to grow slowly in 2024, leading to limited growth in pig supply in 2025. The cost variance among different farming entities remains significant, allowing high-quality pig companies to achieve considerable profits and continue to repair their balance sheets [58]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Profitability and Production Capacity - Pig prices continue to be weak, while piglet prices remain strong. In March 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.6 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease year-on-year and month-on-month. The price of piglets was 610 yuan/head, reflecting a year-on-year increase [11][15]. - The profitability of pig farming continues to narrow, with the average profit for self-bred pigs at 42.4 yuan/head, down 39% month-on-month. The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter [15][16]. - Sample companies showed significant overselling in March, with actual sales exceeding planned sales by 6.8%. The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally, indicating a rise in storage willingness among slaughter enterprises [23][58]. Section 2: Sales Growth and Piglet Volume - The total number of pigs sold by listed companies in March 2025 was 17.69 million, with a notable increase in piglet sales, which reached 2.62 million, a year-on-year increase of 196% [40][41]. - The average weight of pigs sold in March was 124 kg, reflecting a slight increase year-on-year and month-on-month, driven by the narrowing price gap [55][58]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pig farming industry is expected to maintain support at the bottom price level, with a focus on companies with clear cost advantages and strong performance capabilities. The recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention to Shennong Group and Dongrui Co [58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in performance driven by both pork and chicken segments, achieving a notable turnaround from losses to profits [8][9]. - The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a substantial recovery from a loss of 6.39 billion yuan in the previous year [8][9]. - The company is expected to maintain growth in the coming years, with projected EPS of 1.40 yuan, 1.63 yuan, and 1.92 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 times [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 104.86 billion yuan, a 16.64% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, recovering from a previous loss [8][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 24.32 billion yuan, up 11.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, also a recovery from a loss [8]. Revenue Breakdown - The pork segment sold 30.18 million heads, a 14.93% increase, with an average selling price of 16.71 yuan/kg, up 12.83% year-on-year [8][9]. - The chicken segment sold 1.208 billion heads, a 2.09% increase, with an average selling price of 13.06 yuan/kg, down 4.60% year-on-year [8][9]. Cost Management - The comprehensive cost of pork farming was approximately 7.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of about 1.2 yuan/kg year-on-year, maintaining a competitive edge in cost control [8][9]. - The chicken farming cost dropped significantly, with the total cost per chicken reaching 6 yuan/kg, down 0.8 yuan/kg year-on-year [8][9]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 109.30 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.23%, and further to 120.37 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a 10.13% increase [3][9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in both pork and chicken segments, with expected increases in production and sales prices [9].