Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly's stock has experienced significant volatility during Trump's second term, primarily due to the potential implementation of tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which could negatively impact the company and the industry as a whole [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariffs and Their Impact - President Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on imported drugs, although these tariffs have not yet been implemented [2]. - Eli Lilly's CEO acknowledged that expanding tariffs would negatively affect the company and the pharmaceutical industry, but did not specify the potential impact [3]. - The U.S. imported nearly $50 billion in pharmaceutical products from Ireland last year, making it a likely target for tariffs, which could pose a significant challenge for Lilly [4]. Group 2: Company Operations and Manufacturing - Most of Eli Lilly's product sourcing outside the U.S. comes from Ireland, with approximately $3.2 billion in long-lived assets reported in Ireland at the end of 2024 [5]. - Lilly has a large U.S. manufacturing footprint and is currently working on 10 active projects to build and expand facilities, aiming to supply the U.S. market entirely from domestic operations [9]. Group 3: Pricing Strategies and Regulatory Risks - President Trump issued an executive order for "most-favored nation" (MFN) drug pricing, which could pose a risk to the industry, although it may face legal challenges [9][10]. - If MFN pricing is implemented, drug manufacturers might adjust their pricing strategies to maintain profitability, such as increasing list prices in other countries while offering discounts [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outcomes of the proposed tariffs and MFN drug pricing remain uncertain, but it is believed that Eli Lilly and other major pharmaceutical companies will navigate these challenges effectively [12].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the Chinese stock market could rise by 3%, driven by improved corporate profit outlooks and increased foreign capital inflows [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that under a strong currency, sectors such as non-essential consumer goods, real estate, and brokerage stocks typically perform well [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a rebound in Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) in the coming months due to the absorption of excess liquidity in the market [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan suggests that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may further cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as recent domestic data has improved, alleviating some previous concerns [2] - MUFG analysts expect the Japanese yen to remain supported by the potential for further interest rate hikes later this year, despite low expectations from the market [2] - Allianz Group expresses concerns that the U.S. may lose its status as a "reliable investment destination" due to legislative changes affecting clean energy investments [2] Group 3 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the yield on China's 10-year government bonds may drop to between 1.4% and 1.5% in the coming months due to stronger demand for fixed-income assets [4] - Everbright Securities reports that China's phosphate fertilizer exports are expected to gradually recover, driven by export demand [4] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the technology growth style is favored, recommending investments in sectors such as robotics and artificial intelligence [4] Group 4 - CITIC Securities emphasizes the need to move away from "interest dependency" as interest rates continue to decline, suggesting a shift towards diversified asset allocation [5] - CITIC Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the AI computing power sector, driven by advancements in AI models [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the pricing power of core assets is gradually shifting southward, with an increase in IPOs from quality companies in Hong Kong [7] Group 5 - CITIC Securities indicates that the valuation of the brokerage sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by favorable liquidity and financial policies [9] - Galaxy Securities observes rapid rotation in market trends, suggesting a cautious approach while focusing on structural investment opportunities [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan reports significant growth potential in Xinjiang's power supply and demand, with expectations for substantial increases in renewable energy generation [11]

Group 1: Internet Platform Companies - Tencent has a gross margin of 53% and a net margin of 33.7%, dominating the social media space [1] - Trip.com has a gross margin of 81.76% and a net margin of 32.02%, holding a market share of 65-70% in high-star hotels [1] - Pinduoduo reports a gross margin of 60.9% and a net margin of 28.6%, affected by losses from TEMU [1] - NetEase Games shows a gross margin of 57.14% and a net margin of 28.2% [1] Group 2: Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Brands - Leading FMCG brands like Nongfu Spring and Coca-Cola have net margins around 20%, with Coca-Cola at 22.6% due to its innovative business model [2] - Second-tier brands like PepsiCo and Nestlé have net margins around 10%, often due to insufficient brand loyalty or high pricing with low scale [3] - Third-tier brands such as Master Kong and Uni-President operate with net margins around 5%, relying on low prices for market share but struggling with brand loyalty and production scale [4] Group 3: Chain Beverage Companies - Top-tier chain beverage companies like Bawang Tea have a net margin of 20.3%, benefiting from brand premium [5] - Starbucks typically has a net margin of around 15%, but faces margin pressure due to increased competition [6] - Second-tier brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming have net margins of 17.94% and 16.99%, respectively, leveraging scale advantages [6] Group 4: Hardware Companies - Apple has a gross margin of 46.2% and a net margin of 24%, while Xiaomi has a gross margin of 20.4% and a net margin of 6.44% [8] - NVIDIA shows a gross margin of 78.9% and a net margin of 57%, compared to AMD's gross margin of 50.2% and net margin of 15.3% [8] Group 5: Business Insights - High net margins (above 30%) often indicate monopolistic products, while margins below 15% suggest competitive pressures [9] - Companies with single-digit net margins typically rely on price wars, indicating weak product differentiation and low competitive advantage [14] - Trends in gross and net margins can reveal significant insights about a company's market position, as seen with Tesla and BYD [15]

5月19日至23日，由期货日报与产业服务联盟联合主办的"2025原木产业行（江苏、山东站）"活动成功 举行，其间调研团一行先后前往江苏太仓、扬州江都港及山东日照、临沂等地开展了一系列调研交流活 动。 调研团一行深入港口、期货交割库、加工园区及企业一线，聚焦原木期货与产业链融合的创新实践，为 行业高质量发展探索新方向。 产业枢纽升级： 期货交割库驱动贸易效率与韧性提升 作为华东地区最大的原木集散中心，江苏太仓鑫海港口依托年300万立方米吞吐量及80万立方米仓储能 力，通过原木期货交割库实现了流程规范化和业务专业化升级。该港口负责人表示，期货交割库的设立 不仅提升了区域贸易效率，更以标准化管理增强了产业链韧性，使太仓鑫海港口得以辐射江浙沪及周边 地区，成为原木期现结合的核心节点。 在扬州江都港，调研团一行实地观摩了"进口—仓储—加工"一体化发展的生态链条。远扬国际码头江都 分公司常务副总经理张红兵介绍，该港口单船日卸货量达1.36万立方米，原木堆存峰值超50万立方米， 并沿长江辐射至中西部及北方加工区。江都经开区规划24.8万平方米木材产业园，引入40余家企业，通 过集约化运营降低物流成本，集群效应显著。 期货工 ...

天量美债即将到期，"逃离美国2.0"是否继续？ 黄金避险属性再定价，债市风险风否继续助推？日债成全球"风暴眼"，美日空头是否尚有获利空间？日 债-美元资产传导链条全解析，解锁股债+汇市+贵金属操作策略；波动率交易窗口开启，捕捉市场脉冲 行情>> 相关链接 ...

新华财经北京5月26日电上期所发布关于铸造铝合金期权上市交易有关事项的通知称，中国证监会已同 意上海期货交易所（以下简称上期所）铸造铝合金期货及期权注册。根据上期所相关规则，现将有关事 项通知如下： 一、上市时间 铸造铝合金期权自2025年6月10日（周二）晚上21:00起上市交易，当日20:55-21:00集合竞价，21:00开 盘。 二、交易时间 每周一至周五，9:00-10:15、10:30-11:30和13:30-15:00。连续交易时间为每周一至周五21:00-次日 01:00。法定节假日前第一个工作日（不包含周六和周日）的连续交易时间段不进行交易。 三、挂牌合约月份 铸造铝合金期权首日挂牌AD2511、AD2512对应的期权合约。 铸造铝合金期权合约中，合约月份涉及的标的期货持仓量阈值为10000手（单边）。 四、挂牌基准价 由上期所在上市前一交易日公布。 六、行权与履约 铸造铝合金期权为美式期权，客户办理行权、放弃行权等业务的时间及渠道见下表： 七、持仓限额管理 期权合约和期货合约分开限仓。 非期货公司会员和客户持有的某月份期权合约所有看涨期权的买持仓量和看跌期权的卖持仓量之和、看 跌期权的买持 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：核心资产定价权逐步向南转移 东方财富：短期需要更加稳健 本周海外金融市场动荡加剧，日本长债利率、美债利率明显上行；美欧贸易摩擦再出波折，验证特朗普对于关 税问题的反复性，均将边际扰动市场风险偏好，短期需要更加稳健。 近期小微盘风格录得明显相对收益，在我们看来是存量博弈、快速轮动的市场环境下，资金为获得超额收益进 行市值下沉以博取筹码定价权的结果。回顾2023年以来，中证2000指数在成交额占比达到30%的高拥挤度状态 后行情波动性均明显加大，后续例如市场避险情绪升温、政策表态等均可能带来资金的负反馈风险。本周中证 2000成交额占比来到32%的高位，目前市场流动性环境明显好于2024年初，回撤幅度预计好于当时，但短期过 热仍需合理消化。 兴业证券：市场主线有望再度偏向科技成长 本轮A股公司密集赴港IPO是出海战略、制度便利和港股流动性改善三重力量助推。优质核心资产在港股正式 交易后，短期会活跃对应A股的交易，部分核心资产的定价权可能会逐步南移。这个现象的背后是港股市场的 吸引力在系统性提升，一是资产供给结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a slight increase in price and significant liquidity, indicating a stable interest in long-term bonds despite a narrow fluctuation in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.05%, with the latest price at 111.92 yuan [3]. - The ETF recorded a turnover of 4.66% during the trading session, with a total transaction volume of 318 million yuan [3]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past month reached 2.542 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Fund Size and Shares - The latest size of the 30-year government bond ETF reached 6.812 billion yuan, marking a new high for the past month [4]. - The ETF's latest share count is 60.9897 million, also a new high for the past month [5]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Leverage - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past three days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 53.5925 million yuan, totaling 92.7449 million yuan in net inflows [5]. - The latest financing buy amount for the ETF is 78.9198 million yuan, with a financing balance of 54.3872 million yuan [5]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - As of May 23, 2025, the ETF's net value increased by 14.97% over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 378 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.79% [5]. - The ETF has a maximum monthly return of 5.35% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a total gain of 10.58% [5]. - The average monthly return during up months is 2.20%, with a monthly profit percentage of 69.23% and a monthly profit probability of 71.59% [5]. Group 5: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [6]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [6]. - The tracking error over the past year is 0.071% [6].

Global Timber Trade Situation - Over the past decade, global timber trade has experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic growth and international trade policies. From 1990 to 2007, there was a substantial increase in global timber trade volume, with China's demand for logs rising sharply. However, following the financial crisis, global timber trade volume briefly declined from 271 million cubic meters in 2007 to 199 million cubic meters in 2009. Subsequently, the trade volume grew rapidly, reaching a peak of 306 million cubic meters in 2018, but has been declining since then due to factors such as trade policies, weather, and the COVID-19 pandemic [1][3][4]. China's Timber Trade Situation - China is the largest importer of softwood timber globally, with minimal exports of logs. In terms of import composition, logs account for approximately 50%, alongside sawn timber, wood fiberboard, and pulp. In 2024, China's log import volume is projected to be around 36.1 million cubic meters, with an import value of approximately 59.396 billion yuan. The primary source of softwood logs imported by China is radiata pine from New Zealand, followed by spruce and fir from Europe [4][8][9]. Major Timber Import Sources - China primarily imports logs from Russia, New Zealand, and the United States. However, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia has banned the export of its logs. The import volume from New Zealand remains significant and stable, warranting close attention [8][9]. Major Trade Ports - Shandong province is a key area for log consumption, boasting a comprehensive processing industry and significant price influence. It serves as the main trading and delivery hub for logs in China. Other notable ports include Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu, which is the largest tropical timber import port, and Caofeidian in Hebei, designated by the Canadian government as a designated receiving port for outbound timber. Qingdao port in Shandong has established a rail-sea intermodal transport route for logs, enhancing the logistics network for timber imports [9][10]. Major Transportation Methods - The import of softwood logs into China primarily utilizes waterway and land transportation. Waterway transport is dominated by ocean shipping, with logs arriving from New Zealand, North America, and Southeast Asia. After reaching the port, wholesalers procure the logs and transport them via rail or road to secondary wholesale or retail markets. Land transport relies on rail and road networks, with logs from Russia and other European regions mainly entering through rail, offering stable transport times and lower logistics costs [10][11]. Shipping Costs and Trends - The local pricing of logs in New Zealand typically uses the AWG price, which includes procurement, transport, and packaging costs before reaching the port, excluding shipping costs. When exporting, New Zealand adopts the CFR pricing model, where shipping costs significantly impact the overall price. Recent trends indicate that shipping costs have been rising, with shipping fees accounting for approximately 30% of the log import price over the past two years [22][23]. Shipping Indices - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Baltic Handy Size Index (BHSI) are commonly used reference indicators for tracking global log shipping costs. BDI reflects the overall dry bulk shipping price, while BHSI specifically tracks the rates for handy-sized bulk carriers, which are primarily used for transporting logs. The choice of index is crucial for accurately assessing shipping costs related to log transportation [25][26].

证券研究报告 固收 沿着债市定价体系找机会 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 利率周报 研究员 张继强 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 吴宇航 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 仇文竹 SAC No. S0570521050002 qiuwenzhu@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 欧阳琳 SAC No. S0570123070159 ouyanglin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 朱逸敏 SAC No. S0570124070133 zhuyimin@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 与信贷等广谱利率对比：债市定价基本合理 债券与存贷款之间会通过比价效应和机构行为传导。但本次 LPR 下调后， 一些银行通过减少加点幅度，仍维持新增按揭贷款 3%的原利率。如果 3% 是房贷利率的 ...