Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, focusing on various sectors including the midstream manufacturing industry, real estate, and the overall stock and bond markets. Core Insights and Arguments Economic Growth Projections - The actual GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be around 4.8%-4.9%, with nominal GDP growth at approximately 4.5% [5][6][12] - Retail sales growth could reach 4%-4.5% under certain subsidy assumptions, while export growth is projected to maintain resilience at about 5% [5][7] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to rise from -3.1% this year to a range of 0%-1%, with manufacturing expected to grow by 2% and real estate continuing to decline by -10% to -13% [5][7] Fiscal Policy and Price Trends - Fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with budget expenditure growth around 5% and new government debt between 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion [6][8] - CPI is projected to gradually rise and turn positive, while PPI trends are uncertain, with potential for stabilization in midstream PPI in the first half of 2026 [6][9][10] Midstream Manufacturing Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector is highlighted as the most promising area, benefiting from a recovery with overseas gross margins surpassing domestic margins for the first time, reaching 25%-30% [13][16] - Demand growth in this sector has outpaced supply growth for over a year, indicating a recovery in return on equity (ROE) [13][16] Stock Market Outlook - A strategic bullish outlook for the stock market in 2026 is maintained, although the pace of valuation increases and the outperformance of the ChiNext index may weaken [21][23] - The focus will shift towards sectors with low valuation percentiles and high dividend yields, such as insurance and home appliances [23][24] Bond Market Perspective - A cautious view on the bond market is expressed, with expectations of rising yields, particularly for ten-year government bonds, which are projected to exceed 2% [26] - The bond market is considered relatively expensive compared to equities, and adjustments are anticipated [26] Additional Important Insights Uncertainties in Policy Implementation - Several uncertainties regarding policy implementation are identified, including the use of special bonds and the structure of long-term special government bonds [8] - The impact of service consumption subsidies on the service sector and overall economic performance remains to be seen [8] Key Timeframes for Investors - Two critical timeframes in 2026 are highlighted: January for CPI expectations and around May for PPI consensus, which are significant for macroeconomic assessments [12] Investment Focus Areas - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high capacity utilization and low capital expenditure, such as synthetic fibers, black metals, oil and gas, and general equipment [25] - The midstream manufacturing sector is emphasized as the most reliable investment direction due to its current performance and growth potential [20] Future of Real Estate Market - The real estate market's future remains uncertain, with a need for policy support to stabilize prices, especially given the current oversupply situation [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the economic outlook, sector performance, and investment strategies for 2026.

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to enhance demand, optimize supply, and achieve a balanced economic structure, aiming for a good start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The meeting highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand and stimulating effective investment to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in the Chinese economy [1][2] - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from the previous year's target, while still maintaining a medium to high growth level [2] Group 2 - The meeting stresses the need for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth, with an emphasis on integrating stock and incremental policies [2][3] - The fiscal deficit rate is suggested to increase to 4.5% to 5% in 2026, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to create incremental demand and adjust the economic structure [5] - The analysis indicates that approximately 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funds will be needed to support the targeted 5% economic growth in 2026, with specific allocations for special bonds and local government debt [5][6]

1、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1011）》 5、《建议稿有哪些增量信息？ 可能带来哪些投资机会？—— — 政 策 专 题 （ 1028 ） 》 2025-10-28 12 月 8 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，建议重点 关注四个方面内容。 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 08 日 如何理解 12 月政治局会议？对资本市场意味着什么？ 专题报告 相关报告 ——政策专题 策略研究 ❑ 第一，政策基 ...

有效需求不足是当前中国经济面临的持续性问题，因此要持续 扩大内需、提振消费、激发有效投资需求；另一方面，要通过 进一步优化和扩大有效供给，尤其是通过创新来实现有效供给 的提升，从而满足消费结构升级以及人口结构变化等带来的需 求结构变动，助力供需的结构性平衡。 作者：杜涛 封图：图虫创意 在宏观政策方面，会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 袁海霞认为，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，实现经济"开门红"对达成2035年远景目标具有更 加重要的政治经济意义，对稳定信心和预期也至关重要。财政政策将延续"更加积极"的基调，同 时也将"更加有为"，更加注重增强可持续性。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议提出"实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量……保持 社会和谐稳定，实现'十五五'良好开局"。 中诚信国际研究院执行院长袁海霞对经济观察报表示，有效需求不足是当前中国经济面临的 ...

据新华社报道，中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议对当前经济形势作 出判断，我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风 险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争， 更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性。 中泰证券（600918）研究所政策团队首席分析师杨畅告诉记者，"前瞻性"是指，对于经济运行后续可能 面临的问题、暴露的风险，宏观政策会提前谋划、提前应对，尽可能熨平经济运行可能面临的风险隐 患。"针对性"是指，对于重点任务、重点问题、重点风险，宏观政策会采取针对性手段予以处置。"协 同性"是指，政策实施过程中将更加注重形成各个部门、各个层级之间的合力。 对于"继续实施更加积极的财政政策"，粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉记者，这既是延续政策稳定性 的需要，更是当前扩大需求的需要。为进一步扩大内需、提振消费、稳定房地产市场，有必要以更大力 度的财政政策来稳定经济和社会就业，为新旧动能转换赢得更多的时间。 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月08日 12 月政治局会议解读 提质增效，内需主导 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525110002 | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 会议： 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作，审议《中国共 ...

Economic Confidence Index - The "Economic Confidence Index" for December 2025 is reported at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in the economy [6][8]. Inflation Predictions - Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 to be 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05% [9][10]. Retail Sales Growth - The forecast for the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in the dining sector [10][11]. Industrial Value Added - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added in November is 5.0%, an increase from the previous month's 4.9% [11]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market [12][14]. Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in November is -15.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus for November is reported at $111.68 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [15]. New Loans - Economists forecast new loans for November to rebound to 679.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 220 billion yuan [16]. Total Social Financing - The predicted total social financing for November is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous month's 0.81 trillion yuan [17]. M2 Growth Rate - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in November is 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [18]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists expect the possibility of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and reserve requirement ratios to be low in the near term, with a continued focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [20]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at the end of 2025 is 7.07, with expectations of a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-2026 [21]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [22][23].

国泰中证500ETF（561350）跟踪的是中证500指数（000905），该指数覆盖医药、电子等成长性行业， 具有均衡的行业分布特征，旨在反映A股市场中小盘上市公司证券的整体表现。 中泰证券指出，随着12月中央经济工作会议临近，政策信号或逐步集中于结构优化与稳定增长两条主 线，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，财政政策大概率采取更积极姿态，在货币政策受汇率约束、宽松空 间有限的背景下，财政端将承担稳增长主力。在此阶段，市场关注的焦点或在于中央经济工作会议的财 政政策预期，若赤字率和财政支出力度如市场预期般进一步前置，中小市值、弹性更高的可选消费领域 （如文旅、线下零售等）有望获得阶段性交易机会。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

美元指数目前处于10月底以来的低位，这主要受到市场对美联储可能再次调整利率的预期影响。本周美 联储的政策信号成为影响英镑/美元走势的关键因素。交易者普遍采取观望态度，等待更多关于美联储 未来利率路径的明确指引。市场关注焦点集中在即将发布的经济预测更新以及美联储主席在会后新闻发 布会上的表态。 当前阶段，市场认为任何技术性回调都可能成为潜在入场机会，回调幅度预计有限。本周初缺乏重要经 济数据，市场注意力可能转向英国央行货币政策委员会成员的讲话，以寻找短期线索。英镑/美元正处 于关键技术水平附近整理。美元走势受货币政策预期影响，英镑则获得财政政策明朗化支撑。上方阻力 明显，需观察价格能否有效突破移动平均线区域。 未来几个交易日，英镑/美元预计将在现有区间内波动，直至出现新的基本面或技术面催化因素。 英国方面，近期财政预算不确定性的消除为英镑提供了一定支撑。英国财政大臣宣布了一项年度规模达 260亿英镑的财政调整计划，旨在填补财政缺口并建立应对意外情况的缓冲空间。这一举措有助于缓解 市场对英国央行短期内可能调整政策的担忧，从而为英镑/美元汇率提供了基本面支撑。 从技术分析角度来看，英镑/美元目前面临的关键阻力区域在 ...