Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 2025, with GDP growth increasing by 3.0%, up 3.5 percentage points from Q1, primarily due to inventory investment and a reversal of import drag[12] - The unemployment rate in the US fell unexpectedly, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, indicating a strong labor market despite some signs of weakness[12] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate in July, with most officials agreeing on the current monetary policy's support for the economy, but potential rate cuts remain if tariffs significantly impact the economy[23] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in June, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with manufacturing investment declining by 2.7 percentage points to 5.1%[30] - Social retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, influenced by the fading effects of consumption policies and high base effects[33] - The CPI in June rebounded to a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, ending three months of negative growth, while PPI continued to decline, indicating ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau emphasized stability, continuity, and flexibility in future policies, with a focus on structural monetary policies to support small and medium enterprises and boost consumption[51] - Fiscal policy is expected to be implemented with precision, with a projected fiscal space of over 6 trillion yuan for the second half of the year, supporting key areas like infrastructure[56] - The risk of geopolitical tensions and unexpected economic changes poses significant challenges to domestic economic stability and policy effectiveness[57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market has declined across the board. The five major steel products have seen an increase in inventory and a decrease in apparent demand. The rapid decline of coking coal has led to a decrease in speculative demand, and the short - term futures market still faces correction pressure. However, due to the unproven "anti - involution" expectation and the "steady growth" expectation, along with the impact of coal mine over - production inspections, the steel demand in the off - season is acceptable, and the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On August 1st, black commodity futures all turned down. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore were 3,203 yuan/ton, 3,401 yuan/ton, and 783 yuan/ton respectively. The coking coal and coke futures continued to decline significantly, with the decline of coking coal main contract exceeding 7%, and the coking coal main contract switched to 2601 [1] Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting did not release signals of incremental fiscal policies, emphasizing the use of previous policy packages and without more support for the real estate market. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and downplayed the guidance of a September rate cut, leading to adjustments in risk - asset prices. In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [1] - The supply - demand performance of steel is poor. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 13.5189 million tons, ending a four - week decline. The terminal demand in the off - season is weak, mainly due to the decline in real estate investment and construction. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 65.37%, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46%, and the average daily pig iron output decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons. The electric arc furnace steel mills increased production and resumed production, with the operating rate and capacity utilization reaching an eight - week high [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a short - term shock strategy and pay attention to the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coils: Adopt a short - term high - level consolidation strategy and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overall, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased, the apparent demand has decreased, and with the rapid decline of coking coal, the short - term futures market faces correction pressure. But due to certain expectations and the actual situation, the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-08-01 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造 业保持扩张。7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依规治理企业 无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引。7月31日，市场全天震荡调整， 三大指数午后均跌超1%。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市超4200股飘绿，今日成交逾1.96万亿。商品期货收盘，焦煤 主力合约跌停，玻璃跌超8%，多晶硅跌超7%，硅铁、纯碱、工业硅跌超6%。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、 ...

今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层'三保'底线"。 未来，随着超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等工具的加快发行和使用，财政政策将在促消费扩内 需、支持传统产业改造提升、促进新兴产业和未来产业发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for sustained and appropriately intensified macroeconomic policies to enhance economic resilience and vitality, with a focus on proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy - The implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy will further enhance economic resilience, utilizing tools such as long-term special government bonds, government bonds, fiscal subsidies, and loan interest subsidies to support domestic demand and economic circulation [2] - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve fund efficiency and ensure the basic livelihood of local governments [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy will further enhance economic vitality, with measures taken to ensure ample liquidity and lower financing costs for the economy [3] - The meeting emphasized the continued use of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [3] Group 3: Capital Market - The trend of stabilization and improvement in the capital market is expected to continue, supported by strong policy signals and measures to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [4] - The ongoing macroeconomic policies will create a solid foundation for the stable operation of the capital market, reinforcing the upward momentum of the economy [4]

今年以来，我国货币政策根据形势变化相机抉择，节奏和力度适时适度，在推动扩大国内需求、稳定社 会预期、激发市场活力，支持实现全年经济社会发展目标和任务方面发挥了巨大作用。 今年以来，在更加积极有为的宏观政策推动下，我国经济展现出强大活力和韧性。上半年，国内生产总 值同比增长5.3%，内需对经济增长贡献率达68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，成为增长的主动 力和稳定锚。经济结构持续优化，高技术产业增加值同比增长9.5%。 从经济理论和实践经验看，宏观政策的传导是需要时间的，已实施措施的效果还会进一步显现。与此同 时，中共中央政治局会议强调"保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活性预见性"，这意味着未来政策效应将 进一步释放，从而更好巩固宏观经济的回升向好势头。 其一，更加积极的财政政策将进一步增强经济韧性。 今年以来，财政政策综合运用超长期特别国债、政府债券、财政补贴、贷款贴息等工具，通过与其他宏 观政策协同发力，在支持全方位扩大国内需求、畅通经济循环、推进现代化产业体系建设、保障和改善 民生、防范化解地方政府债务风险等领域发挥了十分重要的作用。 此次中共中央政治局会议强调，"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效 ...

尽管上半年广义财政收入略有下滑，但广义财政支出规模创下历史新高。今年上半年广义财政支出增速8.9%，明显高于2024年 全年的2.7%。 今年财政政策靠前发力，助推经济平稳运行，下半年财政政策将"持续发力、适时加力"。 财政部最新数据显示，今年上半年全国广义财政支出（全国一般公共预算支出和全国政府性基金支出之和）近18.8万亿元，创下 历史新高，同比增长约8.9%，这明显高于上半年经济增速（5.3%）。 近日中共中央政治局召开会议，要求下半年宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。 根据财政部数据，2025年上半年全国广义财政收入135008亿元，同比下降约0.6%，但广义财政支出187544亿元，同比增长约 8.9%。上半年全国广义财政支出超出收入52536亿元，同比增长约45%。 不难发现，尽管上半年广义财政收入略有下滑，但广义财政支出规模创下历史新高。今年上半年广义财政支出增速8.9%，明显 高于2024年全年的2.7%，财政支出发力明显。 "上半年，更加积极的财政政策和其他宏观政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观政策取向一致性。 "宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"，并且强调，"落实落细宏观政策各项措施"。中共中央政治局召开会 议传递了怎么样的信号？ （原标题：如何理解"宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力"？） 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议强调，做好下半年经济工作，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，坚持稳中求进 工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，保持政策连续性稳定性，增强灵活 性预见性，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有力促进国内国际双循环，努力完成全年经济社会 发展目标任务，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 从货币政策来看，王运金认为，下半年货币政策将保持适度宽松基调，加大调控强度，通过逆回购、 M ...

国债期货日报 2025/7/31 端在期货 | | 7月31日 20:30 美国7月失业率 美国7月季调后非农就业人口(万人) | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 8月1日 20:30 美国至7月26日当周初请失业金人数(万人) 美国6月核心PCE物价指数年率 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完 整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否 符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | ...