经历节前短暂调整之后，节后银行板块又成了股市"最靓的仔"。端午假期后首个交易日（6月3日），银 行AH股集体走强，A股沪农商行早盘强势封涨停，带动城农商行和股份行齐涨，多股股价创下新高。 进入二季度以来，银行股在高股息率、险资增配、公募基金改革调仓等逻辑支撑下被避险资金持续看 好，成为A股首个市值突破10万亿元的板块，银行指数和部分个股频频逆势续创新高。随着5月降准降 息和新一轮存款利率调降落地，低利率环境中关于"存款理财不如买银行股"的讨论进一步升温。 不过，对于6月3日银行股的显眼表现，受访人士认为，主要与沪农商行和渝农商行被纳入市场核心指数 有关，这再度刺激了市场的炒作情绪。"不同于理性投资、价值投资，炒作注定没办法持续。"有资深银 行研究人士提示，要理性看待部分个股股价的过快上涨，银行股投资终究要回归基本面。 2家农商行纳入核心指数 6月3日，沪农商行开盘即走强，以一个涨停板成为银行板块的"明星"。伴随板块集体大涨，兴业银行、 中信银行、北京银行、浦发银行、杭州银行、南京银行、成都银行、渝农商行股价均在当天创出新高。 当日，银行板块一度大涨2.5%，收盘以1.98%涨幅位列31个申万一级行业第四，主力 ...

机构认为，无论从银行盈利压力、负债压力以及央行对流动性呵护程度、基本面状况来看，当前和一季 度都有显著差别，因而行情不会简单重复。下半年来看，我国出口下行压力可能会更多显现，政府债券 的供给压力也会明显缓解，预计二三季度货币政策放松可能加码，资金利率中枢或将明显回落，年内利 率债仍有胜率。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约涨0.03%报119.45，10年期主力合约跌0.03%报108.69，5年期 主力合约跌0.04%报105.96，2年期主力合约跌0.04%报102.352。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数小幅上行，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.25BP报1.715%，10年期 国债"25附息国债11"收益率持平报1.6750%，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行1.25BP报1.931%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.29%，报430.56点，成交金额552.38亿元。豪美转债、福新转债、中宠转2、水 羊转债、志特转债涨幅居前，分别涨8.87%、7.62%、6.04%、5.94%、5.88%。中旗转债、东时转债、惠 城转债、精达转债、游族转债跌幅居前，分别跌12.8%、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of fee reductions by bank wealth management subsidiaries is a response to the decline in deposit rates, aiming to attract more investments into wealth management products while facing pressure from lower returns on these products [2][8]. Group 1: Fee Reductions by Wealth Management Subsidiaries - Multiple bank wealth management subsidiaries, including Bank of China Wealth Management and CCB Wealth Management, have significantly reduced their product fees, with some fees dropping to as low as 0.01% [2][4]. - Bank of China Wealth Management announced a reduction in fixed management fees from 0.15% to 0.01% for specific products, indicating a substantial decrease in costs for investors [4]. - Other banks, such as CCB and Hunan Bank, have also announced similar fee reductions, with management fees adjusted from 0.20% to 0.05% and from 0.60% to 0.50%, respectively [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The total scale of bank wealth management products has exceeded 31 trillion yuan, reflecting a recovery in the market [7]. - Analysts suggest that the current fee reductions are driven by two main factors: the migration of deposits to wealth management products due to lower deposit rates and the need to retain existing investors amid declining product performance benchmarks [8]. - The low interest rate environment is expected to deepen, leading to a structural "asset shortage" and pressuring wealth management firms to diversify their asset allocation strategies [8]. Group 3: Performance Benchmarks and Product Issuance - The performance benchmarks for bank wealth management products have declined, with 1-3 month products showing a benchmark of 2.28%, down 9 basis points from the previous month [10]. - In April, the issuance scale of bank wealth management products was 556 billion yuan, a decrease of 158.8 billion yuan from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in new product offerings [9].

Core Viewpoint - A new round of banks lowering deposit rates has led to a wave of fee reductions by wealth management subsidiaries, with some fees dropping to as low as 0.01% [1][2][5] Group 1: Fee Reductions by Wealth Management Subsidiaries - Multiple wealth management subsidiaries, including Bank of China Wealth Management and China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, have announced significant fee reductions for their products, with management fees as low as 0.01% [2][4] - Bank of China Wealth Management has issued 27 announcements regarding fee reductions since May, with specific products seeing management fees drop from 0.15% to 0.01% [2] - Other banks, such as Hunan Bank and Everbright Wealth Management, have also adjusted their fee structures, with some fees being eliminated entirely [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The reduction in fees is attributed to two main factors: the decrease in deposit rates leading to a shift of funds into wealth management products, and the need to retain existing investors amid declining product performance benchmarks [5][6] - The total scale of bank wealth management products has exceeded 31 trillion yuan, indicating a recovery in the market [6] - The wealth management market is undergoing strategic adjustments in response to a low-interest-rate environment, characterized by increased competition and a shift towards multi-asset allocation [6][7] Group 3: Performance Benchmarks and Product Issuance - The performance benchmarks for bank wealth management products have declined, with various product categories experiencing drops in their annualized returns [7] - In April 2025, the issuance scale of bank wealth management products was 556 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous month [6]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by high dividend yields and a favorable interest rate environment, making it an attractive investment option [1][4][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The banking sector saw a trading volume of 222.5 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The A+H bank ETF has increased by 13.3% year-to-date and has set seven historical highs, with fund shares growing by 78 million [1][4] - The bank AH index has outperformed the CSI 300 and the CSI Dividend Index, suggesting continued upward potential [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics - The one-year fixed deposit rate is 0.95%, while the five-year rate is 1.3%, and the ten-year government bond yield is only 1.73%, highlighting the attractiveness of bank stocks with 4-6% dividends [1] - The banking sector's average net profit growth over the past ten years is 4.5%, with a variation coefficient of 78.6%, indicating stable earnings compared to other industries [5] - The projected return on equity (ROE) for the banking sector in 2024 is 9.3%, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.61x, suggesting undervaluation relative to other sectors [6] Group 3: Investment Trends - Insurance companies are increasingly investing in high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, as part of their asset allocation strategy [1] - The introduction of public fund quality development plans is seen as a positive factor for the stable and low-volatility banking sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the government bond futures market reflects a silent struggle regarding the direction of the Chinese economy, driven by both funding and policy pressures [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Dynamics - The central bank's recent reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 58.5 billion yuan in a single day, signal a tightening stance despite appearing to be accommodative [2][5]. - The Ministry of Finance initiated bond market support operations, injecting 280 million and 260 million yuan of 2-year and 3-year bonds, respectively, indicating a subtle shift in market supply and demand dynamics [2][5]. Group 2: Interest Rate Environment - The current low interest rate environment has seen the interest rate on demand deposits from major state-owned banks drop to 0.05%, with 1-year fixed deposits falling below 1% [2][5]. - Despite this, the 30-year government bond ETF has shown a remarkable annualized return of 15.28% over the past year, highlighting a paradox where funds flee low-yield deposits but hesitate to enter riskier markets [2][5]. Group 3: International Market Influence - The cold reception of the U.S. 5-year Treasury auction, with indirect bidders receiving a record 78.4% allocation, indicates a global capital flight towards safe assets, contrasting with domestic capital fleeing the bond futures market [3][5]. - The significant increase in SOFR futures open interest by 173,000 contracts within three days suggests that the market may be anticipating larger upheavals [3][5]. Group 4: Market Behavior - The net short position in 5-year government bond futures among the top 20 positions reached 6,254 contracts, indicating a strong institutional presence in the short-selling camp [3][5]. - A "mini redemption wave" in the wealth management market has led to short-term products experiencing a withdrawal magnitude similar to last September, showcasing a stark contrast between retail panic selling and institutional arbitrage strategies [3][5]. Group 5: Economic Transition - The anticipated increase in government bond issuance in May and June may exceed expectations, with local government bond issuance aiming for 700 billion yuan in a single month [4][5]. - The decline in bank deposit rates has paradoxically strengthened residents' savings tendencies, with the proportion of demand deposits falling below 20% in April, indicating a growing conservative mindset among the populace [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, silicon metal, lithium carbonate, coke [1] - **Bullish**: Corn (mid - term), urea [1] - **Sideways**: Index futures, gold, silver, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel (short - term), rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, ferroalloys, ferrosilicon, glass, soda ash, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, PE, BPP, PVC, caustic soda, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - The current market is affected by multiple factors such as weak economy, asset shortage, global trade frictions, and policy changes. Different varieties show different trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment [1]. - For most commodities, short - term trends are often influenced by immediate news and short - term supply - demand imbalances, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand structures and macro - economic conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Lack of driving factors, likely to continue weak sideways movement [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Short - term sideways, long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level sideways, limited upward space in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) increase concerns about supply shortages [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports prices in the short term, but upward space is limited as prices rise [1] - **Alumina**: Spot prices are rising, and the downward momentum of futures prices is weakening [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term weak sideways after price decline, long - term surplus pressure exists. Pay attention to inventory changes [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak sideways, long - term supply pressure remains. Pay attention to steel mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations are strengthening, and prices have significantly corrected in the short term [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: In the window period from peak to off - peak season, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with no upward driving force [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Potential risk of weakening exports, cost is loose, and supply - demand is loose, with unclear price rebound drivers [1] - **Iron ore**: Expectation of peak iron - making output, but no new stories on the supply side. Pay attention to steel pressure [1] - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply - demand balance, high warehouse receipt pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cost is affected by thermal coal, but production cuts in the production area make supply - demand tight [1] - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and prices may weaken due to the rainy season [1] - **Soda ash**: Short - term demand is okay, but medium - term supply is excessive, and prices are under pressure [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supply - demand is relatively excessive. Coking coal provides positive arbitrage and selling hedging opportunities when the futures price is at a premium. Coke is bearish [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: Limited upward driving force, expected to maintain range - bound movement [1] - **Soybean oil**: Argentine weather impact is limited, and there is arrival pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Concerns about supply shortage, and it is possible to consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term affected by trade negotiations and weather, long - term affected by macro uncertainties. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to reach a record high, and the production volume may exceed expectations if crude oil is weak [1] - **Corn**: Medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but short - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [1] - **Soybeans**: Short - term no obvious bullish drivers, expected to maintain range - bound movement. Long opportunities for M11 and M01 can be considered [1] - **Pulp**: Port inventory is rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to move sideways [1] - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is recovering, and the futures price is at a discount. The futures price is expected to be stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, OPEC+ production increase, and summer consumption season [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, inventory accumulation, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural rubber**: Futures - spot price difference has returned, affected by exchange policies, and inventory has decreased [1] - **BR rubber**: Short - term sideways, long - term downward pressure due to weak demand [1] - **PTA**: Supply - demand tension has been relieved, and short - fiber cost is closely related [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Continuing to reduce inventory, and the impact of polyester production cuts is ongoing [1] - **Short - fiber**: Cost is closely related to PTA, and the tight situation has been alleviated [1] - **Styrene**: Speculative demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and the spot - futures price gap persists [1] - **Urea**: High daily production, increased short - term export demand expectations, and a possible rebound [1] - **Methanol**: High domestic production, increasing arrivals, and entering the inventory accumulation phase. The market is expected to be weak sideways [1] - **PE**: Seasonal demand is weakening, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **BPP**: Maintenance support is limited, and prices are weak sideways [1] - **PVC**: Fundamentals are weak, but there is short - term rebound due to macro - level positives [1] - **Caustic soda**: Low inventory, sufficient orders, and subsequent trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Prices are weak, with narrow - range fluctuations, and are expected to be weak sideways [1] - **Container shipping**: Strong expectations but weak reality. It is recommended to be cautious when short - selling during the price - support period. Light - position long positions can be considered for peak - season contracts, and arbitrage opportunities exist [1]

Group 1 - The pilot program for credit bond ETFs to conduct general pledge-style repurchase transactions is set to be officially implemented soon, marking a new phase in liquidity management tools in China's bond market [2] - The inclusion of credit bond ETFs in the general repurchase pledge library reflects support for green bonds, sci-tech innovation bonds, and corporate bonds from private enterprises, signaling a commitment to market construction for credit bond ETFs [2] - The current environment of "asset scarcity" is slowing down, with credit bonds expected to outperform interest rate bonds in a defensive strategy, emphasizing the importance of duration selection in different stages [2] Group 2 - As of May 28, 2025, the Tianhong credit bond ETF (159398) showed active trading with a turnover rate of 91.29% and a transaction volume of 5.1 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [3] - The Tianhong credit bond ETF reached a new high in scale at 5.673 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 56.3323 million, reflecting growing investor interest [3] - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, totaling 1.325 billion yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 221 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The management fee for the Tianhong credit bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4] - The tracking error for the Tianhong credit bond ETF over the past month is 0.006%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index account for 8.59% of the index, reflecting the concentration of holdings [4]

"就目前来看，本轮降准降息落地后，理财产品资产端利率在短期内未出现明显下降，反而有所回升。 实际上，今年市场上资产供给有所增加，理财公司'资产荒'的现象并未显著加剧，只能说是高收益资产 遭遇了激烈拼抢。"某股份行理财公司投研业务负责人告诉记者。 ● 本报记者 石诗语 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率的影响相对有限，近期长债利率震荡回升，同 业存单利率有所上行。但从长期来看，理财产品底层资产收益率下行趋势明确，理财公司的"资产荒"局 面难以改变。 资产端收益率影响有限 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率影响有限，上周存款降息、LPR下调等操作落 地，长债利率震荡回升。 "从2023年以来存款利率下降后的债券走势来看，1年期和10年期国债收益率的表现不一，存款降息并不 一定会带来债券收益率快速下行，更多需要考虑当时的基本面、政策环境和交易情绪。债券收益率对此 次存款降息的短期情绪反应已告一段落，但国有大行为了预防存款搬家而提价发行同业存单的情况将持 续。国有大行发行的同业存单配置价值上升。"东吴证券研究所相关分析人员表示。 具体来看，5月19日，债市尾盘出现存款利率下调预期，10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent trend of banks triggering early redemption of convertible bonds due to rising stock prices, indicating a shift in the convertible bond market dynamics [1][2][4] - Hangzhou Bank announced the early redemption of its "Hangyin Convertible Bond" as its stock price exceeded 130% of the conversion price for 15 trading days, marking a significant event in the convertible bond market [1][2] - Suzhou Bank also triggered early redemption of its "Suhang Convertible Bond," with the stock price meeting the required threshold, showcasing a growing trend among banks to exercise redemption rights [2][3] Group 2 - The redemption price for Suhang Convertible Bond is set at 101.35 yuan per bond, including interest, with a total redemption amount of 3.5869 million yuan, indicating a minor impact on the bank's financials [3] - The market for bank convertible bonds is shrinking, with only 10 remaining in circulation, and the upcoming redemption of Hangyin Convertible Bond and the maturity of Pudong Development Bank's bond will further reduce the market size [4][5] - The current outstanding bank convertible bonds are estimated to be around 200 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of the total convertible bond market, but this is expected to decrease significantly by 2025 due to a lack of new issuances [4][5] Group 3 - The low conversion rates of several bank convertible bonds are concerning, with five bonds having over 99% unconverted ratios, which may increase repayment pressure for banks [5][6] - Despite the low conversion rates, there is optimism that banks can alleviate repayment pressures by attracting strategic investors to convert bonds before maturity [6] - The demand for high-rated bank convertible bonds remains strong, and the market is anticipating new issuances to replenish the supply [6]