虽然说今天高开是大家能预期的，高开低走也是可以理解，但高开后一路向南，明显就是没有资金流入，反有资金流出的最好证明，大家一直说市场是超预 期利好，而昨天利好又是在A股收盘后出现的，所以无论如何不能认为超预期利好在昨天已经兑现了，其实港股拉升，美股大涨，A股理论上需要一个补 涨，今天的高开相对于昨天港股尾盘的涨幅已经很克制了，我不认为有什么大问题。就旬昨天说了，如果看到资金的流入，盘面就能活起来，因为昨天题材 涨停已经接近枯竭，从利好叠加的节奏看，我是不会认为今天会单边下跌，但真实的情况是，无论是今天是什么时候看好的，都会被无情打脸，当然，银行 板块是例外的。其实大家可以看看银行指数，这三年来已经翻了一倍，可上证指数原地不动，由此可见，银行扛下了所有，有时候真想买一点银行，做个反 手亏了没所谓，但赚了就成了耐心资金，多好！ 昨天复盘时分析，其实能涨是因为没有抛压，今天的关键是买盘力量能不能重回1000+，很可惜，我们等不来1000+的买盘，今天的买盘比昨天还要少，尽 管觉得这个市场有问题，为什么出现利好买的人反而少了，可市场就是对的，现在的情况是买盘已经接近枯竭了，枯竭到什么程度？在同一量级下已经到去 年8月份 ...

一、 指数表现与成交量 今日 ， A 股三大指数集体高开， 但在 早盘冲高后市场出现获利盘抛压，午后指数震荡回 落，沪指微涨 0. 17 % ，深成指和创业板指分别收跌 0. 13 % 和 0. 12 % 。两市成交额 继 续 突破万亿元，达 1. 29 万亿元，较前一交易日 缩量 约 169 亿元。个股表现分化，超 4 000 只个股早盘上涨，但收盘时下跌个股增至 3200 余只，市场情绪从普涨转向结构性波 动。 二、 领涨板块：出口链与科技股主导行情 1 、 光伏设备与新能源：光伏板块全线爆发，多晶硅期货主力合约 4 日累计涨幅超 13% ， 头部企业如东方日升涨停，阳光电源一季度净利润同比大增 82.52% 。行业传闻头部厂商联 合减产挺价，叠加中美关税缓和后出口预期改善，推动板块情绪。 2 、 跨境电商与消费电子：中美关税下调超预期直接利好出口链。跨境电商指数创 2 个月新 高，恒而达、华纺股份等多股涨停；消费电子板块因供应链成本下降预期走强，叠加 VR/AR 技术提升购物转化率等长期逻辑支撑。 尽管中美关税缓和提振了整体风险偏好，但市场并未普涨，反而呈现显著分化，主要原因包 括： 1、 利好提前消化 ...

1. 美国ETF创新产品：Pacer发行现金流轮动策略产品 YieldMax上周继续扩充其单股票Covered Call策略产品，挂钩互联网券商Robinhood。 2. 美国ETF动态 2.1美国ETF资金：债券产品流入提升 上周美国股票ETF继续有一定流出，但国际股票、债券产品仍然流入明显，债券ETF的流入有所增加： 上周美国共8只新发产品，Pacer发行两只新产品扩充现金流产品线： VistaShares上周发行一只期权策略产品，产品首先通过ROE、盈利波动、负债率等质量标准选择20-50只股票，然后 通过卖出期权来增厚收益，目前是15%的年化收益。 Pacer上周也发行一只质量相关产品，是其代表性的现金流因子和质量结合的策略，选择至少10年连续正自由现金 流、自由现金流质量得分最高的100家标普500成分股。自由现金流质量由公司过去5年平均的自由现金流收益率和自 由现金流ROIC合成得到。此外，Pacer上周还发行一只轮动策略产品，在其现金流ETF COWZ和纳斯达克100之间轮 动，进一步扩充其现金流产品线。该策略主要根据动量进行轮动，将指数过去1、3、6、9、12个月的平均收益率等权 合成，然后每 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices may reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, up from approximately $3,300, driven by U.S. policies and limited supply [1] - Hedge funds have increased bullish bets on Chinese stocks due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly among U.S. hedge funds [1] - Goldman Sachs expects Germany's defense spending to rise from 2.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3% by 2027, benefiting the defense industry significantly [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that if interest rate cuts do not materialize, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may face upward pressure due to a lack of supporting economic data [3] - Bank of America reports that global investors are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar, driven by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook [5] - BlackRock notes that recent U.S.-China trade talks have yielded significant progress, which is expected to boost confidence in Chinese markets [4] Group 3 - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates that tariffs may initially raise U.S. inflation before negatively impacting economic growth, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - Capital Economics predicts that OPEC+'s strategic shift will continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices until the end of 2026 [8] - BMO Capital Markets highlights an increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in June due to disappointing employment data [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities suggests that strengthened export controls on strategic metals may lead to a revaluation of these assets, with prices expected to rise [7] - CITIC Securities also notes a recovery in risk appetite, with a focus on high-growth sectors and new themes following the release of Q1 reports [8] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of implementing monetary policies introduced in May, while considering both domestic and U.S. economic factors [9] Group 5 - Huatai Securities is optimistic about the passenger vehicle sector maintaining high growth in Q2, driven by demand from trade-in policies and consumer incentives [10] - Huatai Securities anticipates a structural recovery in the home appliance sector in Q2, supported by domestic demand and export recovery [12] - China Galaxy Securities recommends focusing on "technology narrative" opportunities in the A-share market, alongside stable dividend-paying sectors [13]

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数集体上涨，港股尾盘拉升！中美贸易谈判迎来重磅进展！本周，还有这些大事要来。 2、科技、军工板块涨幅居前，未来哪些板块机会更大？机构看好三大方向。 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可 领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1348 篇白话财经- - 今天，在中美谈判迎来重要进展的利好下，A股三大指数集体上涨，创业板指涨超2%。 （图片来源：东方财富App，统计截至2025/5/12，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额超1.3万亿，盘面上，军工、科技板块涨幅居前。 机构分析认为 ，坚定中国资产的重估逻辑，预计A股有望在震荡中实现中枢的逐步抬升。 重磅利好！本周还有这些大事！ 今天，中美谈判重大进展的消息振奋人心！ 当地时间10日上午，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行。据中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰11日晚表示，此次中美经贸高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有 建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。 点燃了A股市场乐观情绪，今天，三大指数集体收涨。 盘后，谈判再度迎来进展，中美发布联合声明，中美同意暂时降低部分关税90天！ （图 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, 8 new products were issued in the US, with Pacer launching two new products to expand its cash - flow product line, including a strategy product combining cash - flow factors and quality, and a rotation strategy product between its cash - flow ETF COWZ and the Nasdaq 100 [1][6]. - US stock ETFs continued to have some outflows last week, while international stock and bond products still had significant inflows, and the inflow of bond ETFs increased, with the risk preference of bond ETF funds rising [1][9]. - Since May, US Treasury bonds, especially long - term bonds, have performed weakly, with the decline of Treasury bond ETFs over 20 years exceeding 2%. However, the sentiment of funds has improved, and recently, bond ETFs have seen continuous inflows, while short - term bond products with stable performance have seen outflows [1][12]. - In March 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US was $21.17 trillion, a decrease of $0.88 trillion compared to February 2025. From April 23 to April 30, US domestic stock funds had a total outflow of $10.2 billion, and the outflow has enlarged again, while the outflow of bond products has slowed down [1][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: Pacer Issues Cash - Flow Rotation Strategy Products - Last week, 8 new products were issued in the US. Pacer issued two new products. One is a strategy product combining the representative cash - flow factor and quality, selecting 100 S&P 500 component stocks with at least 10 consecutive years of positive free cash flow and the highest free - cash - flow quality scores. The other is a rotation strategy product between its cash - flow ETF COWZ and the Nasdaq 100, which rotates based on momentum [6][7]. - VistaShares issued an options strategy product last week, selecting 20 - 50 stocks through quality criteria and then enhancing returns by selling options, with an annualized return of 15% currently [6]. - Invesco issued 3 new products last week. QQHG mainly invests in Nasdaq 100 stocks and adds an options strategy to control drawdowns, CTSK looks for undervalued stocks, and IMF selects assets with low correlation to traditional markets [7]. - YieldMax continued to expand its single - stock Covered Call strategy products last week, linked to the online brokerage Robinhood [7]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Funds: Bond Product Inflows Increase - Last week, US stock ETFs continued to have some outflows, while international stock and bond products still had significant inflows, and the inflow of bond ETFs increased. Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF had significantly more inflows than the other two products, and Bitcoin ETFs also had inflows of over $1 billion. Credit - bond and long - bond ETFs had inflows, and CLO products have also attracted high attention recently [9]. - The inflow gap between the State Street's S&P 500 ETF and VOO in two weeks reached $12 billion. Corporate - bond ETFs had inflows and short - term bond ETFs had outflows, indicating an increase in the risk preference of bond ETF funds [11]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: Long - Term Bonds Continue to Decline - Since May, US Treasury bonds, especially long - term bonds, have performed weakly, with the decline of Treasury bond ETFs over 20 years exceeding 2%. However, the sentiment of funds has improved, and recently, bond ETFs have seen continuous inflows, while short - term bond products with stable performance have seen outflows [12]. 3.3 Recent Capital Flows of US Ordinary Public Funds - In March 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US was $21.17 trillion, a decrease of $0.88 trillion compared to February 2025. In March, the S&P 500 fell 5.75%, and the scale of US domestic stock products declined by 6.55%, with the scale decline rate still higher than the stock decline rate [14]. - From April 23 to April 30, US domestic stock funds had a total outflow of $10.2 billion, and the outflow has enlarged again, while the outflow of bond products has slowed down [14].

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its oscillation in the short to medium term, with accelerated style rotation driven by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - In May, a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" may re-emerge, starting with technology growth stocks, followed by a shift towards defensive assets as macroeconomic risks increase [1] - The recovery of the consumption sector is anticipated after the defensive phase, supported by policy dividends and improving consumption data, leading to new investment opportunities driven by domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The market shows resilience due to dual drivers of policy support and economic recovery, despite short-term fluctuations in trading volume reflecting cautious sentiment [2] - The first quarter saw a positive turnaround in net profit growth for all A-shares, indicating improving corporate earnings and strengthening internal economic recovery [2] - The effects of monetary policy easing and long-term capital inflows are expected to enhance liquidity, supporting a continued recovery in consumption and investment sectors [2]

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue its fluctuations in the medium term, with accelerated style rotation, supported by monetary policy easing and strong export performance [1] - China's export focus has successfully shifted towards ASEAN and EU markets, leading to stable export growth despite basic economic downward expectations [1] - The market may experience a rotation pattern of "risk aversion - consumption - growth" in May [1] Group 2 - A-share market is experiencing accelerated rotation, with a rebound in financing activity and a shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks [2] - The combination of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations supports risk appetite, while structural market conditions are expected to prevail [2] - Key internal certainty clues include potential benefits for large-cap stocks and public utilities from new public fund regulations, and opportunities in sectors like military electronics and renewable energy equipment [2] Group 3 - Strategic metals are likely to undergo a value reassessment due to increased export control measures and the importance of these resources in the current international political context [3] - The crackdown on smuggling and export of strategic minerals is deemed urgent and significant for national security and development interests [3] - Prices of strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony are expected to rise, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the strategic metals sector [3]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 12 日 重要推荐 【浙商石化能源 邹骏程】保龄宝（002286）公司深度：产品结构优化驱动盈利改善，功能糖龙头再谱新篇章—— 20250508 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商机械 邱世梁/王华君/何家恺】涛涛车业（301345）公司点评：一季度业绩同比增长 69%，公司强者恒强市 占率有望持续提升——20250509 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁】A 股策略周报：偏多震荡如期而至，持仓调结构、增配待时机——20250510 【浙商宏观 李超/廖博】宏观专题研究：4 月通胀：物价相对承压，关注增量政策——20250510 【浙商固收 覃汉/郑莎】债券市场专题研究：长债交易性机会何时出现？——20250510 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/高旗胜】策略深度报告：地缘冲突与板块轮动——2 ...

行业研究 上周量化私募超额有所回升，中性策略正收益。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下： 1）300 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为-0.4%/-1.3%/-1.8%，周/月/年初以来平均 超额分别为+0.1%/+0.9%/+3.3%；2）500 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.4%/- 1.7%/+2.3%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.3%/+2%/+7.1%；3）A500 增强策略周/月 /年初以来平均收益分别为-0.2%/+1.5%/+5.6%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为- 0.1%/+4.1%/+11%；4）1000 增强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+0.7%/-1.2%/+5.4%， 周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为+0.5%/+3%/+9.2%；5）空气指增策略周/月/年初以来平均 收益分别为+0.8%/-0.2%/+7.8%；6）市场中性策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为 +0.2%/+0.8%/+4.4%。 指数收益情况：1）沪深 300 相对中证 500 周/月/年初以来超额收益分别为-0.4%/- 0.2%/+1.9%；2）中证 1000 相对中证 500 ...