以下文章来源于36氪企业舆情报告 ，作者36氪 36氪企业舆情报告 . 舆情大数据，帮你看清市场全貌、看懂涨跌原因。 中国稀土公司日报 当日开盘价42.02；交易量44.63万手 换手率4.21%；缩量幅度0.14% 来源｜ 36氪企业全情报（ID：EV36kr） 中国稀土8月1日缩量下跌3.12% 41.04 -1.32 -3.12% 昨日收盘价43.26；当日收盘价：41.04 3日涨幅 -9.03% ；5日涨幅 -9.98%； 成交额：18.44亿；总市值：435.53亿 较过去一年的平均收盘价 +0.34% ；较过去一年的日均交易量 -0.99% "中美经贸会谈聚焦关税及稀土"舆情分析 中美经贸会谈在斯德哥尔摩举行，双方同意将已暂停的、涉及24%关税的对等加征措施及中方反制措施延长90天。此前，5月和6月双方达成初步协议，避免 了关税进一步升级和稀土出口中断。贝森特透露，在日内瓦和伦敦会议基础上，双方关于中国稀土出口的协议正在细化。此前在日内瓦和伦敦的中美谈判聚 焦于恢复中国稀土出口。分析人士指出，中国在全球稀土和永磁材料市场的主导地位赋予其重要谈判筹码。 ｜事件正负面性质分析 截止8月1日，此事件匹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - range upward oscillation, and the trend of Sino - US trade relations and new variables on the supply side need to be monitored [2]. - The palm oil market is affected by multiple factors. Although there are positive factors such as EPA policy and B50 policy expectations, there are also negative factors like high production in Southeast Asia, so it should be viewed with an oscillatory perspective [6][8]. - The sugar market is likely to see a continued decline in Zhengzhou sugar prices in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [10][11]. - The cotton market is currently bearish. The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, and the fundamentals show slow de - stocking [13][14]. - The egg market has different trends for near - term and post - festival contracts. The near - term contracts oscillate, and the post - festival contracts can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [15][16]. - The pig market has a re - structured supply logic due to policy intervention. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of the spread between different months [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - On Thursday night, US soybeans closed lower. Good North American weather limits the upside, and Sino - US trade negotiations have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Domestic soybean meal spot prices are stable, with good trading volume and high提货 levels. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.2389 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.3726 million tons. The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be normal in the next two weeks, and the overall weather is favorable. The Brazilian premium has risen slightly [2]. Trading Strategy - The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline at the end of August. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the high end. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 09 contracts [4]. Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil has different trends in different periods in June. The production in July has increased to varying degrees. Indian vegetable oil importers are increasing palm oil purchases. On Thursday, domestic palm oil declined slightly, and the net long positions of the three major oils by foreign capital decreased slightly. Overall, although there are positive factors, there are still negative factors in the oil market, and the domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [6][7]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentals support the oil price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 month period, and there is an expected increase in the fourth quarter. However, due to various restrictive factors, it should be viewed with an oscillatory perspective [8]. Sugar Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined slightly. The spot prices of sugar in different regions also decreased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped have increased. The estimated sugar production in the 2025/26 season in the central - southern region of Brazil is slightly lower than the previous season [10]. Trading Strategy - Since the second half of the year, the price difference between imported sugar and Guangxi sugar has narrowed, and the import supply is increasing. Assuming no significant rebound in the external market price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [11]. Cotton Key Information - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The spot price also decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Sweden, and both sides agreed to continue to suspend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures [13]. Trading Strategy - The specific agreement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks has not been finalized, which is bearish. Fundamentally, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the short - term trend is bearish [14]. Eggs Spot Information - The national egg prices are partly stable and partly lower. The supply is acceptable, the market demand is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable with a few rising or falling [15]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The near - term contracts oscillate, and the post - festival contracts can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [16]. Pigs Spot Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose. The reduction in the slaughter volume of upstream breeding enterprises and the growing bullish sentiment in the market have boosted pig prices, and today's pig prices are expected to continue to rise [17]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. The supply logic has been re - structured. For near - term contracts, the possibility of large - scale de - stocking in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the spread may show a positive structure. For far - term contracts, the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing focus of the U.S. government, particularly under President Trump, on securing rare earth resources, with a specific emphasis on Myanmar as a new target for sourcing these materials [1] Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Dependency - The U.S. has long been highly dependent on China for rare earth exports, a situation that has raised concerns amid the uncertainties in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - This dependency has led to a growing anxiety within the U.S. regarding its ability to compete effectively against China in the global market [1] Group 2: Strategic Shift - President Trump recognizes the need for the U.S. to achieve autonomy and diversification in rare earth sourcing to avoid being constrained in the context of U.S.-China competition [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating slightly upwards due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors, and the price is expected to remain range - bound [3][5]. - The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited palm oil supply in Southeast Asia have raised the annual operating center of the oil market. However, the significant year - on - year recovery of palm oil production in Southeast Asia still poses downward pressure [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. With the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price is likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The ongoing Sino - US trade talks have not produced a specific agreement, and the cotton market is short - term bearish [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase. The near - month contract is oscillating, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [18][19]. - The domestic pig price is expected to rise slightly. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the focus should be on the spread opportunities [21][22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and Sino - US trade talks have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly, with good trading volume and high pick - up levels [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends in different periods in June, and the production increased in July. Brazil exported $19 billion worth of soybeans to China from January to June, accounting for 74.6% of its total soybean exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, due to factors such as high - level production expectations, the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price remained stable. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall, and the basis strengthened. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures was extended for 90 days [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the specific agreement has not been finalized and the downstream consumption is weak, the cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price remained stable, with stable supply and good market circulation. It is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contract oscillates, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [19]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price remained stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The reduction in the slaughter volume at the beginning of the month and the strong price - support sentiment among farmers are expected to drive the price up slightly [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [22].

Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]

Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the domestic economic fundamentals remained under pressure in June, the financial data showed that the effects of the loose monetary policy had begun to emerge, which might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The market had high expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Sino-US trade negotiations this week, and the stock index might continue to rise in the near term. In the long run, the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings also had a driving effect on guiding long-term funds into the market, injecting confidence into the market, and the stock index also had the potential to rise. The strategy suggested buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of most futures contracts rose, with the IF, IH, and IC contracts increasing, while the IM main contract (2509) decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 4122.0, up 6.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread decreasing by 2.0 to 1325.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased to -27,859.00, down 1918.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of major indices rose, including the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 4135.82, up 8.7 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of most futures contracts changed, with the IF main contract basis decreasing to -13.8, down 2.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased to 17,661.50 billion yuan, down 493.01 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased to 19,474.29 billion yuan, up 54.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Various indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and implied volatilities showed different trends. The proportion of rising stocks increased to 51.37%, up 4.60% [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The strength of all A - shares increased to 5.80, up 1.10, with improvements in both the technical and capital aspects [2]. Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2]. - **A - share Financing**: As of July 27, 74 A - share companies had completed private placements this year, raising a total of 659 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Stock Index Performance**: The major A - share indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly [2]. Key Events to Watch - **International Economic Data**: Important economic data and central bank decisions in the US and Canada are scheduled to be released from July 29 to August 1, such as the US June JOLTs job openings on July 29 at 22:00 [3].

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，未来90天迎来外贸出口 抢单期。商业库存同比降低。 利空：接近贸易缓和3月期限。消费淡季。总体外贸订 单下降，库存增加。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and they are expected to trade in a range due to low valuation; domestic soybean meal remains weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation [2]. - The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal Important Information - US soybeans closed lower on the night of last Friday. North American weather is favorable, restricting the upside, and they are expected to trade in a range. Domestic soybean meal is weak due to pig production capacity control policies and inventory accumulation. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, with the East China price at 2840 yuan/ton. Last week, soybean meal sales were average, but提货 remained high, and downstream inventory days decreased slightly to a medium - level in history. MYSTEEL statistics show that 2.2389 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.3726 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. - The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal rainfall and high temperatures in the next two weeks, which is generally beneficial for growth. In Brazil, the premium has stabilized and rebounded. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver, while domestic soybean import costs are rising slightly due to a single - supply source and may be difficult to decline without substantial improvement in Sino - US soybean trade [2]. - The import cost of external soybeans is affected by low valuation, EPA policy, and the fact that Brazil is the sole supplier from September to January, resulting in volatile trading. However, with the global oversupply of protein raw materials, there is insufficient upward momentum for soybean import costs. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and the spot market is expected to start destocking at the end of September [4]. Trading Strategy - The soybean meal market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the 09 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal when the spread is low [4]. Edible Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June had different trends: an expected increase of 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days, a 5.29% - 6.16% decline in the first 15 days, a 3.57% - 7.31% decline in the first 20 days, and a 9.2% - 15.22% decline in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, and 6.19% in the first 20 days [6]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Brazil's biodiesel production increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 2.08 million tons, and the production from January to June reached 3.97 million tons (+7.3%). This has stimulated the consumption of soybean oil as a raw material, with its usage in biofuel production increasing by 10% to 1.6 million tons from April to June [6]. - Domestic palm oil fluctuated and declined last Friday, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major edible oils decreased slightly. Overall, EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operating center of edible oils, but there are still bearish factors due to the significant year - on - year recovery of Southeast Asian palm oil production [6]. - Domestic spot basis levels are stable at low levels. The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 09 + 30 (0) yuan/ton, the basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu is 09 + 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in East China is 09 + 120 (0) yuan/ton [8]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeds expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil has limited production growth potential, low inventories of Indian vegetable oils create rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of edible oils. For palm oil, if demand countries maintain normal imports and production remains at a moderate level from July to September, inventories in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a firm and volatile price. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as the expected annual increase in edible oil production, high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and adjustments in demand from major importing countries. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [9]. Sugar Key Information - Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 5876 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6030 - 6090 yuan/ton, up 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5830 - 5870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; and processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6160 - 6210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the main Zhengzhou sugar contract (sr2509) is 154 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending July 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 77 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.3408 million tons, up 246,500 tons from the previous week [11]. Trading Strategy - China is currently in the best window period for sugar imports in the past five years, and the pressure of import supply may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton Key Information - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate on Friday. The closing price of the September contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton price and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract (CF2509) is 1170 yuan/ton [14]. - As of the week ending July 25, the operating rate of spinning mills was 67.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of weaving mills was 37.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week and 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weekly commercial inventory of cotton was 2.31 million tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous week but up 90,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. Trading Strategy - Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. Fundamentally, downstream consumption has been average recently. The market also expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be issued in the third quarter, which is a potential bearish factor for cotton prices [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Egg prices in China weakened over the weekend, with some areas remaining stable. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao dropped 0.18 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the market supply is sufficient, although high - quality large - sized eggs are in short supply. After consecutive price increases, terminal sentiment has become more cautious, but consumption is in the traditional peak season. It is expected that demand will be weak at the beginning of this week and then strengthen, and egg prices may rise again after a small decline [17]. Trading Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and triggering market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and rose more than expected, causing short - position holders in the near - month contracts to flee. However, with a high premium, long - position holders still lack confidence. In the short term, the near - month contracts will fluctuate mainly following the spot price, lacking a clear trend. For the 09 and subsequent post - festival contracts, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and an expected continuous increase in theoretical supply, the upside of the spot price is limited, and the high - price period is expected to be short. Continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Pig prices in China remained stable over the weekend, with some areas showing small fluctuations. The average price in Henan dropped 0.01 yuan to 14.12 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.01 yuan to 13.31 yuan/kg. In the northern market, farmers' enthusiasm for selling increased, and downstream buyers pressured prices, leading to price declines in most areas. In the southern market, farmers mostly maintained stable prices and waited and watched, with overall prices showing little change and remaining stable. It is expected that pig prices will be mostly stable today with some local declines [20]. Trading Strategy - The market is trading on the government's intervention in reducing pig production capacity, which has restructured the original logic of oversupply. The valuations of all contracts on the futures market have increased significantly, especially for the long - term contracts. For the near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the pre - release of pressure through active weight reduction and the possibility of active weight gain due to the large price difference between fat and standard pigs reduce the possibility of a significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter, and the spread between contracts may move towards a positive structure. For the long - term contracts, the long - term government regulation of sow production capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread is more likely to be in a reverse structure. With the industry structure in the process of restructuring, the uncertainty of unilateral trading increases. It is recommended to focus more on spread trading opportunities [21].