Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a strong growth potential driven by domestic demand and favorable policies [7][47]. Core Insights - The 618 home appliance market in 2025 showed robust growth, with major categories experiencing increases in both retail volume and value, particularly in white goods and black goods [2][13]. - The recent US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to boost sentiment in the Chinese home appliance export chain, providing greater policy certainty for regional export chains [3][21]. - The home appliance sector is transitioning from price-driven competition to a focus on user experience and product value, with significant upgrades in product structures [20][45]. Market Performance Tracking - The overall market is showing a recovery trend, with white goods maintaining stable prices and black goods experiencing significant growth, particularly in the TV market, which saw a 9.7% increase in volume and a 14.5% increase in value during the 618 period [2][13]. - The air conditioning segment demonstrated strong growth, with retail sales increasing over 15% both online and offline, driven by leading brands like Midea, Xiaomi, and Haier [15][20]. - The washing machine market also saw substantial growth, with online and offline retail sales increasing by 17.1% and 12.1% respectively, indicating a shift towards larger capacity and upgraded features [15][20]. Raw Material Price Tracking - Recent trends show a decrease in copper and aluminum prices, with copper down 0.69% and aluminum down 0.23% in the last week, while cold-rolled steel prices increased by 2.58% [29][34]. Exchange Rate and Shipping Price Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.15, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week [35][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1) Opportunities in new product forms and industry phases 2) Quality companies with solid fundamentals focusing on robotics 3) Leading companies in the black and white goods sectors [7][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Policy support is in place, but domestic demand remains weak. The GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025 is expected to be achieved with relative ease [9][10]. - Fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input, while monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Additional fiscal policies may be launched under special circumstances [2]. - There are three major external disturbances in the second half of the year: tariff negotiations, the OBBB Act, and the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts [2]. - The outlook for major asset classes varies. Stocks are expected to have a bottom - line support with small - cap stocks outperforming; bond yields are expected to reach new lows; the RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate following the US dollar index; and commodities' performance will depend on event and policy rhythms [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Economy: Policy Support, Weak Domestic Demand - **Economic Overall Trend**: The economy is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. To counter the impact of exports, policies are targeted at consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing. In the first half, with pre - emptive policy implementation, consumption, infrastructure, and manufacturing showed good growth, and the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 5.4%, with Q2 expected to be above 5%. In the second half, exports are likely to decline, and the probability of additional policies is low [9][10]. - **Consumption**: The increase in social retail sales is mainly supported by policies. After excluding the impact of the "trade - in" policy, the overall consumption has not improved significantly compared to 2024. Income expectations remain poor, and employment expectations are lower than income expectations. The consumption in Q3 is expected to maintain relatively high - speed growth, while there will be significant downward pressure in Q4 [11][16][17]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market has basically reached the bottom, and the probability of a further sharp decline in the second half is low. However, the driving force for recovery is insufficient, and it is expected to continue to operate at the bottom, with a slight upward trend under optimistic expectations [19][21]. - **Infrastructure**: Infrastructure is expected to remain at a high level. The main sources of funds are two - fold policy funds and local government special bonds. In Q3, infrastructure will still have strong support, and it may decline in Q4 but remain at a high level overall. The new policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in September or October [34][35]. - **Exports**: Exports were high in the first half but are likely to decline in the second half due to factors such as over - drawn demand and the downward risk of the US economy [37][38]. - **Manufacturing**: Manufacturing is highly dependent on policy support. With the implementation of the equipment renewal policy, most of the funds have been allocated, and manufacturing is expected to remain at a high level at least in Q3 [40]. 3.2 Policy: Limited Fiscal Policy, Increased Monetary Policy - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will mainly rely on existing measures with limited incremental input. The probability of introducing incremental fiscal policies is low unless there is a significant external shock. Key meetings in the second half of the year need to be monitored [42][43]. - **Monetary Policy**: Monetary policy will continue with reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Based on historical experience and the current high real - interest - rate level, it is reasonable to expect an interest rate cut of 20bp this year [44][46]. 3.3 Three Major External Disturbances in the Second Half of the Year - **Tariff Negotiation Disturbance**: The outcomes of the US tariff negotiations on July 9 and the China - US tariff negotiations on August 12 will basically determine the export trend in the second half of the year [48]. - **OBBB Act Disturbance**: The OBBB Act will have an impact on the US economy and indirectly affect the domestic economy. The Senate version of the bill will increase the US debt, and if temporary measures are made permanent, the debt increase will be even greater. The bill may lead to a steeper yield curve and higher 10 - year US Treasury yields [49][51]. - **Fed Policy Rate Changes**: The first interest rate cut is expected to occur in September or later. The number of expected interest rate cuts within the year may be slightly overestimated considering the US economic resilience and Powell's style [54]. 3.4 Outlook for Major Asset Classes in the Second Half of the Year - **Stocks**: Stocks have a bottom - line support. Although they will face fundamental pressure, the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic monetary policy will provide support. Small - cap stocks are expected to outperform [55]. - **Bonds**: Bond yields are expected to reach new lows. The bond market will be supported by the economic trend, and with lower supply pressure and a high probability of interest rate cuts, bond yields are expected to decline [58]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index is expected to decline, and the RMB will appreciate following the US dollar index, which will help ease the pressure on export enterprises [60]. - **Commodities**: The performance of commodities will depend on event and policy rhythms. External tariff negotiations and domestic policy implementation schedules will affect commodity prices. Gold is expected to strengthen with support from the US debt issue and the approaching Fed interest rate cuts [63][64].

Core Insights - The automotive market in China has shown significant changes in the first half of 2025, with various brands reporting their sales performance, indicating a competitive landscape shift [1][2]. Sales Performance - Five brands have doubled their sales, while five companies met their sales targets. Overall, the sales performance of 28 major automotive brands was positive, with only five companies reporting a year-on-year decline [2][5]. - Notable performers include BYD with 382,600 units sold in June, a 212% increase year-on-year, and a total of 2,146,000 units in the first half, reflecting a 33.04% growth [3][7]. - Geely's sales reached 236,000 units in June, a 42% increase year-on-year, with a total of over 1,409,200 units in the first half, marking a 47% growth [5]. Brand Highlights - New energy vehicle brands like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng Motors have shown strong growth, with Hongmeng Zhixing reclaiming the monthly sales crown among new forces with 52,700 units delivered in June [6][7]. - Li Auto and NIO have faced challenges, with Li Auto achieving only about 30% of its annual sales target, while NIO's performance has been average despite maintaining a growth trend [8][9]. Market Trends - The market for economic models is leading, while high-end vehicle growth is slowing down. The sales of high-end new energy vehicles have not kept pace with the overall market growth due to fewer significant new releases [10][11]. - Analysts predict that the overall automotive market will see a growth of 4.7% in 2025, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16.7 million units, a 30% increase year-on-year [11]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to benefit from policies promoting vehicle trade-ins and the anticipated end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption, leading to higher sales expectations [11]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the high-end new energy vehicle market, citing unmet demand and a lack of quality supply in certain price segments [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the fluorochemical industry [1][6][8] Core Views - The fluorochemical industry is expected to benefit from the implementation of long-term contracts for third-generation refrigerants, with a focus on supply-side constraints for certain products [1][6] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to national subsidy policies and increasing demand from emerging regions such as Southeast Asia, leading to significant growth in domestic air conditioning production and shipments [6][7] - The report highlights a potential supply-demand gap for second-generation refrigerants like R22 due to rapid supply contraction and support from the air conditioning repair market [6][7] Monthly Industry Performance - As of the end of June, the fluorochemical index rose by 6.23%, outperforming the Shenwan Chemical Index by 3.08 percentage points [2][15] - The Guosen Chemical Fluorochemical Price Index and Refrigerant Price Index reported increases of 0.17% and 1.90% respectively [2][17] Refrigerant Market Review - The prices of refrigerants are expected to continue rising in the third quarter, with R32 and R410A long-term contract prices set at 50,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases from the previous quarter [3][23] - The report forecasts stable price growth for mainstream products in the third quarter, with expected average prices for R32 at 53,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 49,000 CNY/ton [3][23] Domestic and Export Price Trends - Domestic prices for R22, R134a, R32, and R410A have shown upward trends, with R32 reaching 53,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 4,000 CNY/ton from the previous month [4][25] - Export prices for R32 and R134a are converging with domestic prices, indicating a tightening market [4][38] Production and Shipment Data - The overall production of air conditioners in the second quarter of 2025 showed a year-on-year increase, although July saw a slight decline due to demand being pulled forward [5][78] - The report indicates that air conditioning production is expected to maintain growth, supported by seasonal demand and policy incentives [5][78] Regulatory Environment - The report discusses China's compliance with the Montreal Protocol, with significant reductions in HCFCs and HFCs production and usage planned for 2025-2030 [68][69] - The tightening of refrigerant quotas is expected to create a long-term upward trend in prices for second and third-generation refrigerants [7][69] Key Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and Sanmei Co. are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 and 2026 [8]

Group 1 - The company conducted a research meeting from June 9 to June 11, 2025, focusing on its operational performance and market conditions [1] - In the first five months of 2025, the heavy truck market in China saw cumulative sales of approximately 437,500 units, a slight year-on-year increase of about 1%. In May alone, sales reached around 85,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 9% [2] - The company reported that its production and sales performance remained strong, with growth compared to the same period last year, outperforming the industry average [2] Group 2 - The new "old-for-new" policy introduced in March 2025, which includes subsidies for scrapping and purchasing new natural gas heavy trucks, is expected to accelerate the replacement of old vehicles and promote the transition towards greener and more efficient technologies in the industry [2] - The company plans to leverage policy opportunities to enhance technological innovation and market expansion, aiming for high-quality business development [2] Group 3 - In the first five months of 2025, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China reached 51,000 units, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 195%. The industry is currently experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [2] - The company is committed to deepening its focus on the new energy sector, promoting product innovation and application in various scenarios to enhance product advantages and market share [2]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China experienced a significant increase in sales in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29%, marking the third consecutive month of growth in 2023 [1][4][5]. Sales Performance - In June 2025, approximately 92,000 heavy trucks were sold, representing a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same month last year [4][5]. - Cumulatively, from January to June 2023, the heavy truck market in China sold about 533,300 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 6% [7]. - The retail sales of heavy trucks also saw a year-on-year increase exceeding 36% in June, with a slight month-on-month rise [7][14]. Market Drivers - The primary reason for the sales surge in June, traditionally a "slow season," is attributed to environmental policies, particularly the implementation of a vehicle scrappage and replacement program initiated by three ministries on March 18 [8][9]. - The program has led to increased demand for new heavy trucks as older vehicles are replaced, contributing to the market's growth despite challenges in the freight market [9][10]. Segment Performance - The electric heavy truck segment has shown remarkable growth, with sales exceeding 15,000 units in June, a year-on-year increase of over 120%, and a market penetration rate surpassing 24% [16][17]. - Diesel heavy trucks also performed well, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 52% in June [17]. - Conversely, the natural gas heavy truck segment continues to decline, with sales dropping over 22% year-on-year in June, primarily due to unfavorable price differentials and delayed policy implementation in key regions [16][17]. Future Outlook - The ongoing effects of the scrappage policy are expected to sustain the demand for new heavy trucks, with projections indicating a significant year-on-year increase in sales for the third quarter of 2023, particularly in September [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of national subsidy policies on the sales of digital products and electric bicycles in various cities in Shaanxi province, leading to increased consumer interest and spending [2][3][5] - The introduction of the national subsidy policy has expanded the range of eligible products, including smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches, resulting in a significant increase in sales of high-end devices priced between 4000 to 6000 yuan [2] - Tax authorities in various cities are actively providing guidance and support to businesses regarding tax policies and invoice issuance, which has improved compliance and increased the awareness of consumers regarding the importance of obtaining invoices for purchases [2][5][6] Group 2 - The implementation of the old-for-new policy for electric bicycles has led to a noticeable increase in consumer inquiries and purchases, with consumers benefiting from substantial discounts when trading in old models [3][4] - Businesses have reported a significant rise in sales orders and invoice usage due to promotional activities related to the old-for-new policy, prompting tax authorities to assist with invoice limit adjustments to accommodate increased demand [6] - Tax authorities are conducting on-site consultations at events, providing consumers with detailed information on tax reductions and benefits associated with purchasing new vehicles, thereby enhancing consumer confidence and stimulating market activity [7]

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益半年报 大浪难寻，细浪掘金 ――利率债 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 27 日 2025 年上半年市场回顾 资金价格：2025 年上半年，资金面先紧后松。一季度资金面偏紧且波幅较 大，与央行稳汇率防空转、银行负债压力加剧及政府债供给规模较高有关。 二季度资金价格趋降趋稳，主要源于，在关税冲击下，央行积极维稳资金 面，叠加 5 月降准降息直接带动资金价格下移。 一级市场：2025 年上半年，利率债供给加量，发行规模和净融资规模均远高 于 2024 年同期，其中，国债净融资规模接近 3.4 万亿元，约为 2024 年同期 的 2 倍。节奏上，国债发行主要在二季度提速；地方债则在一季度发行放 量，与国债发行节奏形成错位；政金债发行节奏较为平滑。 二级市场：2025 年上半年，利率先上后下，曲线走平。一季度利率出现较为 明显的上行调整，主要源于"宽货币"向"稳货币"甚至"紧货币"转变， 资金利空逐渐由短端向长端传导，带动曲线呈现熊平特征。二季度"关税交 易"是主线，4 月利率受关税避险和宽松预期升温 ...

Profit Trends - In May, industrial enterprises' profit growth rate dropped significantly to -9.1% year-on-year, down from 3% in April[1] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also declined to 0.8% in May from 2.6% in April, correlating with a slowdown in export growth[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 4.8% in May, down from 5.3% in April, indicating a negative impact from tariff policies[8] Sector Performance - State-owned and foreign enterprises saw profit declines of -18.1% and 7.3% respectively in May, while private enterprises' profit growth fell to 0.8% from 14.1% in April[6] - Upstream industries experienced a profit decline of 36.3% year-on-year, worsening from 30.8% in April, with coal and oil extraction profits dropping significantly[7] - Midstream manufacturing profits turned negative at -0.7%, down from 12.6% in April, with notable declines in electrical machinery and specialized equipment sectors[7] Economic Indicators - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate slowed in May, indicating a decrease in fiscal expansion momentum, particularly affected by real estate cycle downturns[2] - High-frequency data showed a 6.6% year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales in major cities from May's 3.3% drop, reflecting weak real estate cycles[2] - The "trade war" uncertainties and the expiration of the "tariff exemption" period on July 9 may further disrupt external demand and profit margins for enterprises[2]

Core Viewpoint - The "trade-in" policy has significantly boosted China's retail sector in the first half of the year, with May retail data showing unexpected growth, particularly in home appliances [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sector Performance - In May, China's total retail sales reached 4.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, marking the fastest monthly growth rate in 2024 [2]. - Retail sales of home appliances grew by over 50% year-on-year in May, indicating strong consumer demand driven by the trade-in policy [1][2]. - The trade-in policy has been identified as a key driver of consumption growth, with specific categories like home appliances, communication equipment, and furniture showing significant increases of 53.0%, 33.0%, and 25.6% respectively [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The economic outlook for the next few months remains positive, supported by the release of prior export orders and the ongoing impact of the trade-in policy on consumption [6]. - Recommendations for stimulating consumption growth include enhancing wealth and income through policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, as well as reforming social security and welfare systems [2][6]. - The need to create new consumption scenarios is emphasized, with examples like the Jiangsu province's city football league driving local economic activity in tourism, dining, and accommodation [3]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Innovation - China's manufacturing sector has shown significant advantages, with over 30% global market share and rapid advancements in key areas such as shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [4]. - The domestic innovative pharmaceutical industry is experiencing growth due to supportive policies and increased R&D investment, indicating a robust environment for technological advancement [4]. Group 4: International Market Competitiveness - Chinese companies that have survived intense domestic competition are demonstrating strong capabilities in international markets, reflecting their competitive strength [5].