文/《清华金融评论》 周茗一 国务院新闻办公室于2025年4月28日（星期一）上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国 家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部 长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况，并答记者问。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕 表示，4月18日召开的国务院常务会议已就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措（下称若干举措），进行了研究。若干 举措与去年9月一揽子增量政策、中央经济工作会议和全国"两会"部署任务形成接续，是应对外部环境变化的重要举措，是落实党中央和国务院决策部署 的具体行动。 具体来看，若干举措具体包括五方面内容。 关于近期美国国债和美元汇率市场出现大幅振荡 中国人民银行副行长邹澜 表示，美国宣布对多个经济体大幅加征关税，严重侵犯各国正当权益，严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制，严重冲击全球 经济秩序，破坏全球经济长期稳定增长。同时，也引发了全球金融市场剧烈波动，投资者对美元资产的风险情绪上升，美元指数大幅下行，美债收益率上 升，美国股市波动加剧，全球资产组合在区域间重新配置。 在积极扩大有效投资方面，主要包括完善消费基础设 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·小家电 科沃斯（603486） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：2025Q1 归 母净利润同比+59%，盈利改善逻辑开始兑现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 15,502 | 16,542 | 18,224 | 20,519 | 23,105 | | 同比（%） | 1.16 | 6.71 | 10.17 | 12.59 | 12.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 612.08 | 806.09 | 1,201.98 | 1,483.65 | 1,819.70 | | 同比（%） | (63.96) | 31.70 | 49.11 | 23.43 | 22.65 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.06 | 1.40 | 2.09 | 2.58 | 3.16 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 49.98 | 37.95 | 25.45 | 2 ...

国寿安保基金认为，一方面，一季度出口仍然维持韧性，净出口规模再创新高，存在一定的抢出口因 素，给国内经济增长带来了支撑；另一方面，一季度经济的良好开局得益于内需的释放以及一系列前期 政策效果的显现，投资、消费等内需指标均有明显扩张。 2025年4月16日，国家统计局公布了我国一季度经济数据，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，生产、 消费、投资多项数据超出市场预期。近期美国发动贸易战、关税战，外部形势复杂多变，国寿安保基金 表示，一季度经济的良好开局无疑为后续的稳预期、稳经济工作增强了信心。在贸易冲突不确定性增加 的国际背景下，做好自己的事成为最好的应对手段。 在生产方面，一季度，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，比上年全年加快0.7个百分点，3月份， 规模以上工业增加值同比增长7.7%，比1-2月份加快1.8个百分点。在消费方面，一季度社会消费品零售 总额同比增长4.6%，3月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.9%，比1-2月份加快1.9个百分点。在投资 方面，一季度全国固定资产投资累计同比增长4.2%，比上年全年加快1个百分点，增速比1-2月份加快 0.1个百分点，其中制造业投资增长9.1%、基建投 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-04-28 工企利润回暖 ——中国盈利系列十 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 4 月 27 日周日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—3 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 15093.6 亿元，同比增长 0.8%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：利润增速回升，需求端压力仍存。2025年 1-3月，全国规模以上工业企业利润总 额同比增长 0.8%，扭转了 2024 年三季度以来的持续下滑趋势，其中 3 月单月利润增速 回升至 2.6%，较 1-2 月的-0.3%显著改善。这一回升一方面得益于政策驱动效应逐步释 放，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策（"两新"政策）推动装备制造业利润同比 增长 7.6%，对工业利润增长的贡献率达 40%以上，成为核心拉动力量。另一方面海外 订单回升带动出口依赖型行业（如电子设备、船舶制造）利润增长，1-3 月电子行业利 润增长 3.2%，铁路船舶运输设备增长 14.2%；同时，消费品制造业利润增长 7 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Sales Outlook - The company achieved growth in both domestic and international sales in Q1 2025, supported by the government's trade-in policy and local government cooperation [2] - The company aims to maintain better-than-industry performance in domestic sales and stable growth in international sales through continuous product innovation and channel transformation [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Competition - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese exports have a minimal impact on the company due to its low exposure in the North American market and flexible capacity allocation through its Vietnam base [3] - To maintain profit margins amid intense competition, the company focuses on resource investment in sales growth and product innovation, while implementing strict cost management [3] Group 3: New Product Categories and Innovations - The company evaluates new product categories based on market capacity and technological iteration potential, with plans to enter segments like desktop water purifiers and tea machines [4] - In 2024, the company launched innovative products such as the IH rice cooker and titanium non-stick frying pan in its traditional strong categories [4] Group 4: Dividend Policy and Online Sales Channels - The company has a high dividend payout ratio and plans future dividends based on capital expenditure and cash flow conditions [4] - Online sales channels, particularly traditional e-commerce platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Pinduoduo, remain stable contributors to sales, while social e-commerce platforms are experiencing rapid growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The new trade-in policy, supported by a 300 billion subsidy, is reshaping three major industries: home appliances, automobiles, and consumer electronics, presenting investment opportunities for medium to long-term investors [1] Group 1: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector receives the largest subsidy, with up to 20% off for 12 product categories, capped at 2000 yuan per item. Sales surged by 23% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, with leading companies like Midea and Gree operating at full capacity [3] - High-end smart products, such as the Casarte series, have seen sales double post-subsidy, indicating a long-term trend of consumption upgrading [3] Group 2: Automotive Sector - The new energy vehicle segment is the biggest beneficiary, with a 20,000 yuan trade-in subsidy boosting sales. BYD's Han series orders exceeded 80,000 units in April [3] - The battery supply chain, including companies like CATL and Purtai, is also benefiting from this trend. The automotive aftermarket is highlighted as a promising area, with Tianqi's dismantling equipment orders extending to Q4 and Gree's battery recycling business achieving a gross margin of 28% [3] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - Although the subsidies in consumer electronics are smaller, they cover a wide range of products, including mobile phones and tablets. The Honor 90 series has over 40% of its sales through trade-in channels, and the inventory turnover days for core distributor Aishide have decreased to 15 days [3] - VR device manufacturer GoerTek has secured new orders from Meta, with expectations for Q3 performance to exceed forecasts [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment should focus on three dimensions: core leaders, supporting supply chains, and regional leaders. Recommended stocks include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home in home appliances, BYD and Top Group in new energy vehicles, and Luxshare Precision and Shenzhen South Circuit in consumer electronics [4] - Key timelines for investment include the release of home appliance energy-saving subsidy details in June, the launch of new energy vehicles in August, and the consumer electronics exhibition in November. Early positioning can capture policy-driven benefits [4] Group 5: Market Trends - The policy is expected to accelerate the concentration of the three industries. The market share of the top five companies in the home appliance sector has increased from 68% in 2019 to 79% currently, while the top ten automotive companies now hold over 92% market share [4] - The focus should be on companies with stable cash flow and a dividend yield exceeding 3% to seize structural opportunities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 218 million yuan, up 4% year-on-year [6] - The report highlights strong growth in the automotive thermal management segment, driven by the increasing production and sales of new energy vehicles, which saw a year-on-year growth of 50.4% and 47.1% respectively in Q1 2025 [6] - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins in Q2 2025 as copper prices are expected to decline, which will help stabilize the company's gross margin [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 14.383 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.4% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.170 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.10 yuan in 2025, with a projected gross margin of 18.9% [2] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 12.12 yuan, with a market capitalization of 11.106 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.3 and a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 11 for 2025 [3] Business Segment Analysis - The report indicates that the refrigeration parts segment is experiencing growth, with domestic and export sales of household air conditioners increasing by 6.2% and 24.5% respectively in Q1 2025 [6] - The refrigeration equipment segment is expected to remain in a downward trend due to reduced capital expenditure in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [6]

Core Insights - National scale industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of 15,093.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The profit growth in March was 2.6%, reversing a decline of 0.3% in January-February, indicating an improvement in corporate profits [1] - The overall industrial profit trend shifted from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a positive growth of 0.8% in the first quarter, ending a continuous decline since the third quarter of the previous year [1] Group 1: Profit by Industry - In the first quarter, the mining industry reported a total profit of 2,204.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [3] - The manufacturing sector achieved a profit of 10,826.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.6% [3] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw profits of 2,062.8 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 24 experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector emerged as a significant contributor to profit growth, with a 6.4% increase in profits, accounting for 32.0% of total profits among large-scale industrial enterprises [3] - The contribution of the equipment manufacturing sector to overall profit growth was 2.0 percentage points, showing an increase in its impact compared to earlier months [3] Group 3: Policy Impact - The "two new" policies significantly boosted profits, with specialized and general equipment industries seeing profit increases of 14.2% and 9.5%, respectively, surpassing the average industrial profit growth [4] - Specific sectors such as electronic and electrical machinery manufacturing experienced rapid profit growth rates of 56.3% and 24.6% [4] - The consumer goods sector benefited from policies promoting the replacement of old products, with industries like wearable smart devices and kitchen appliances seeing profit increases of 78.8% and 21.7% [4] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises was 4.70% in the first quarter, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [5] - As of the end of March, accounts receivable for large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 25.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [6] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.9 days, reflecting a rise of 4.0 days year-on-year [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of consumption in driving economic growth, with a notable increase in retail sales in Q1, reaching 12,467.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The "old for new" policy has significantly stimulated consumer behavior, leading to a shift in purchasing decisions towards higher-quality products, with consumers upgrading from mid-range to high-end mobile phones and appliances [2][3] - The implementation of supportive policies, such as the increase in funding for the "old for new" program to 300 billion yuan, has effectively boosted consumer confidence and spending [2][4] Group 2 - The service sector has shown robust growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.0% year-on-year, and leisure and entertainment sectors experiencing significant growth of 67.6% [6][8] - The tourism market is thriving, with a notable increase in travel demand, particularly during the Qingming Festival, and expectations of a 7.6% increase in daily passenger volume for civil aviation [5][6] - The integration of technology and innovation in traditional industries is driving consumption upgrades, with smart products and services gaining traction, reflecting a shift towards digital and intelligent consumption [9][10] Group 3 - The "old for new" policy has led to a surge in applications for vehicle upgrades, with over 1.5 million applications reported, indicating a strong consumer response to the incentives [4] - The overall employment situation remains stable, with an average urban unemployment rate of 5.3% in Q1, supporting consumer spending power [11] - The increase in disposable income, with a nominal growth of 5.5% year-on-year, aligns with economic growth, suggesting that consumers are feeling more financially secure [11]

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（铝、氧化铝）月报 202505 铝、氧化铝 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 供应过剩预期限制氧化铝反弹空间 沪铝等待新一轮宏观指引 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 氧化铝方面，成本利润端，未来 5 月氧化铝成本或仍由铝土矿价格变化主导，矿价预 计在上下游博弈中承压下行，但空间有限。供应过剩压力下，成本降低所挤让出的利润预 计难以保留，长期来看氧化铝行业盈利能力仍不容乐观，大部分企业将面临扩损压力，行 业利润的修复能力将更多依靠供应端的调节，若 5 月累积减产规模扩大，进一步推动氧化 铝价格反弹，行业亏损压力有望出现阶段性缓解。供应端，减产、复产与新产能释放并行 的局面预计有所持续，氧化铝未来整体供应增量可观，奠定了中长期供应过剩的预期，不 确定性在于当前氧化铝行业低利润情况下，新产能释放的节奏是否有所推迟，以及高成本 产区的减产规模是否进一步扩大，需要持续关注高成本产区的产能运行情况以及新投产能 的释放速度，以防出现过大的预期差风险。需求方面将受到出口需求走弱的影响，出现边 际下滑。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【 ...